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The Bitcoin Lens
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Can't unsee it.
Replying to Avatar The Bitcoin Lens

https://x.com/profstonge/status/1823334293889860002?t=JvvsJxAe5jTVuXW48j551w&s=19

Struggling with this one from someone who's content usually resonates. The grift, propaganda, theft that is commonplace in my country would blow your minds. All for praising the good and criticizing the bad but this is just an all round uninformed take. If you'd like a latest example of Modi's push (propoganda) to stoke "populism" leading up to our Independence Day which is tomorrow all phone calls now are preceeded by a message from our Supreme leader re a nationalism flag hoisting campaign. This is not Opt in.

How is one skeptical of their own nonsense Govt data but quick to celebrate and cite other country's data? nostr:npub1trr5r2nrpsk6xkjk5a7p6pfcryyt6yzsflwjmz6r7uj7lfkjxxtq78hdpu

https://x.com/profstonge/status/1823334293889860002?t=JvvsJxAe5jTVuXW48j551w&s=19

Struggling with this one from someone who's content usually resonates. The grift, propaganda, theft that is commonplace in my country would blow your minds. All for praising the good and criticizing the bad but this is just an all round uninformed take. If you'd like a latest example of Modi's push (propoganda) to stoke "populism" leading up to our Independence Day which is tomorrow all phone calls now are preceeded by a message from our Supreme leader re a nationalism flag hoisting campaign. This is not Opt in.

Looking at Macro folks' generally positive comments on India is a headscratcher for someone like me who lives here. Born, raised 97% of my time spent here and Indian in case that needs saying. The level of grift and corruption is unimaginable even for tuned in Bitcoiners who live in the west. Pelosi and co are rookies compared to the shit that goes on here. Sure zoomed out there are favorable tailwinds but how much of that has to do with the people in charge vs demographics and other factors (that I don't pretend to know) is a ?. Balaji especially is too one sided on this topic.

Congratulations!! Can't wait. When will it be available in India?

Bitcoin effectively combines gold’s salability across time with fiat’s salability across space in one apolitical, immutable, open-source package.

Nature provides humans with rewards only when their toil is successful, and similarly, markets only reward humans when they can produce something that others subjectively value.

Fiat increasingly divorces economic reward from economic productivity, and instead bases it on political allegiance.

Re reading The Fiat Standard straight after doing the same for The Bitcoin Standard. Hits different after sequentially + after having far more education under my belt. Will share excerpts that stand out (for me) thank you Saif! Is he not on here?

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

I spoke at a big bitcoin-adjacent company this week and one of the best questions was from someone who asked what the downsides of bitcoin adoption might be.

I always do appreciate these steelman questions, the skeptical questions, the ones where we challenge ourselves. Only when we can answer those types of questions do we understand the concept that we are promoting.

So the classic example is that in modern economic literature, "deflation is bad". This, however, is only the case in a highly indebted system. Normally, deflation is good. Money appreciates, technology improves, and goods and services get cheaper over time as they should. Price of Tomorrow covers this well. My book touches on this too, etc. The "deflation is bad" meme is still alive in modern economic discourse and thus is worth countering, but I think in the bitcoin spectrum of communities, people get that deflation is fine and good.

My answer to the question was in two parts.

The first part was technological determinism. In other words, if we were to re-run humanity multiple times, there are certain rare accidents that might not replicate, and other commonalities that probably would. Much like steam engines, internal combustion engines, electricity, and nuclear power, I think a decentralized network of money is something we would eventually come across. In our case, Bitcoin came into existence as soon as the bandwidth and encryption tech allowed it to. In other universes or simulations it might look a bit different (e.g. might not be 21 million or ten minute block times exactly), but I think decentralized real-time settlement would become apparent as readily as electricity does, for any civilization that reaches this point. So ethics aside, it just is what it is. It exists, and thus we must deal with it.

The second part was that in my view, transparency and individual empowerment is rarely a bad thing. Half of the world is autocratic. And half of the world (not quite the same half) deals with massive structural inflation. A decentralized spreadsheet that allows individuals to store and send value can't possibly be a bad thing, unless humanity itself is totally corrupted. I then went into more detail with examples about historical war financing, and all sorts of tangible stuff. In other words, a whole chapter full of stuff. I've addressed this in some articles to.

In your view, if you had to steelman the argument as best as you could, what are the scenarios where bitcoin is *BAD* for humanity rather than good for it, on net?

1. The current assumption that most early adopters are high integrity individuals perpetuated by the miniscule online echo chamber. Have to be open to the possibility if bad actors that can do nothing to the protocol however do not operate in good faith once adoption increases and their bags get more valuable. A version of your caveat on humanity being totally corrupted. Yes the current fiat system enables this more than what a bitcoin based monetary system allows however we don't know what we don't know ie how will the new wealthy conduct themselves. Meet the new boss same as the old boss?

Weak I know but something to ponder.

2. Once deep down the rabbit hole the desire for Bitcoin to succeed is overpowering making it ever harder to steel man and predict downsides. Could it really be so close to perfect? What are we missing given the subconscious desire for it to succeed? Maybe the meme of the whole thing being spun up by the state as an experiment that got away from it? Maybe Satoshis' coins are indeed controlled by bad actors who end up having the most amount of wealth in the new paradigm?

Cheers! There is that rare feeling of optimism in my belly amidst all the doomery courtesy Nostr and Bitcoin. One feeling I've been wrestling with at this stage of my life is how the fiat treadmill has held me and so many of my peers back. For context I do relatively well given where I'm at however the possibility of being able to afford a home for me and my young family is so distant. The best example I often cite is that my wife's grandfather who held a modest job with the government was able to acquire and build a home for his family at 12X his monthly pay cheque. In nominal units my paycheck is exponentially higher than his ever was but the multiple of my paycheck to do what he did is unfathomable and unachievable. Hopefully bitcoin fixes this soon!! nostr:npub1s5yq6wadwrxde4lhfs56gn64hwzuhnfa6r9mj476r5s4hkunzgzqrs6q7z nostr:npub1s05p3ha7en49dv8429tkk07nnfa9pcwczkf5x5qrdraqshxdje9sq6eyhe just two of many who've helped me see the light. Now I focus on being productive and adding value to others and save in bitcoin. If the thesis plays out I'll be fine but I still worry for all those around me who just don't see it yet.

Two firsts: Testing Nostr + if my thoughts are just valuable just in my head or others as well.