This chart highlights the challenge of solar’s inherent intermittency.
On a perfectly sunny day, power generation is in a bell-shaped curve that tracks the rise and fall of the sun.
However, on a cloudy day, the power generated is highly variable and largely diminished. This generation variability increases the instability of the grid, as it’s harder to meet demand with variable supply.
The world needs reliable forms of power generation. A cloudy day should not affect the amount of power supply available to a civilization.
Solar farms are thus built in incredibly sunny regions. However, adding more and more solar capacity to these regions doesn’t address the fact that power is lost as it travels, so you can’t have power generated in California sent to Maine.
Solar is interesting, but I struggle with it as an alternative solution to reliable energy sources, like oil, natural gas, and nuclear.
Agreed, sir.
My boss said I can’t work 10-15 hours of OT per week anymore, so that time and energy has to go somewhere!
I agree in principle. In reality, I haven’t gotten around to P2P purchases or earning bitcoin directly.
I believe the conflation of bitcoin with crypto and crypto companies is the reason bitcoin’s market cap does not equal gold’s.
That and intellectual laziness.
It seems every major crypto company, from Coinbase and Binance to Block, are facing either intense regulatory action or fraud allegations.
The fiat-crypto on-ramps are being scrutinized and shuttered. I have no opinion whether it’s all correlated and intentional or not, but the fact is it is happening.
The end result is big money throwing in the towel on the space—at least for the time being. Why invest in an asset class that is under this much scrutiny from regulators? Or, this is the regulatory clarity investors have been waiting for. Perhaps in a year or so, investors have the regulatory clarity they were missing—just in time for the halving. Regardless, the space may labeled “not investable” in the short term.
The fog of war will cause volatility, like to the downside as investors pull money from the space, giving us plebs more time to accumulate at lower prices before the next cycle begins.
Resting your eyes for a few minutes to restock energy so you can get shit done. I recommend them.
Love a good nap.
Off the back of SVB, I feel like depositors should have to consent whether or not their funds can be used by the bank for lending.
The idea that the bank essentially owns the money in depositors’ accounts should be revisited.
If depositors do not consent to their funds being lent out, their funds must be held in whole by the bank. They will earn little to no interest on these funds. However, if the bank fails, the depositors are whole.
If depositors consent to their funds being lent out, the funds become the bank’s liability (like today), and the depositors earn a higher interest rate for the risk. If the bank fails, they are insured up to $250k by the FDIC.
The current practice leads to consolidation, as bank runs spark money to flow to “too big to fail” banks. A more centralized banking systems will be easier to control by the government.
How do we show the world that bitcoin is the answer to counterparty risk, monetary debasement, and store of value?
Also, do “we” even need to do that? Do people need to be educated? Or are the incentives of the protocol alone persuasive enough for people to store value in the protocol?
A market is composed of people. People, therefore, are valuing bitcoin as a risk-on speculative asset, even though it’s a stable, secure SoV network. It’s not the network’s fault that people value it through this lens. However, this is the current reality. The $100T question is whether this will always be the reality.
Personally, I find this to be an education issue and a failure to view the world from first principles. However, it can be difficult to know if I’m wrong or if the market is wrong.
Thinking of moving to NYC for work. From researching, I’ve found Queens to be the most affordable and easiest to get into Midtown for work.
If you lived in the area, let me know what you think on best living locations for a young professional with little money.
I view bitcoin as the greatest SoV asset on the planet. However, the market does not. Yet—at least.
The recent failure of SVB is the reason why we bitcoin. We store our wealth in an open-source network with no counterparty risk. We only lose our wealth if bitcoin fails (which the probability decreases daily)or if we lack personal responsibility over our keys.
We do not have to cry for regulators to intervene. Our funds are as secure as we want them to be. We do not have to rely on risk managers at a bank to protect our funds.
Bitcoin is built for this moment—when people are looking around for someone to blame because they stored deposits at a fractional reserve bank. Should banks lend out client deposits? In my opinion, no—unless the depositor gives consent. However, banks lend out deposits. That’s reality.
Why then is money flowing out of bitcoin instead of flowing in—if bitcoin really is the great SoV asset? Several reasons: the conflation of bitcoin with other crypto assets and crypto businesses, the volatility of bitcoin in dollar terms, the consensus that bitcoin is a speculative asset, etc.
The only rationale reason to sell bitcoin at a time like this is to avoid volatility in the short term. You could wait out the storm by storing funds at JPM, BAC, or Wells Fargo. You could buy 6-month T-bills that yield 4%. That’s a fine short-term play.
The question is what will you do in the medium to long term. We know this ends in a Fed pivot. The financial system needs liquidity. QE will return. The government cannot afford such high interest payments when factoring in other expenses.
When the Fed pivots, the dollar will be debased. Money supply will increase to provide liquidity to the system. Extra liquidity will find a home in risk assets.
We would be off to races again—if it wasn’t for a high CPI. That confuses things. However, the Fed may have to live with higher inflation if it means avoiding financial collapse.
How does one plays this then? You could go all in on bitcoin today. Some of you probably already are. I’m not. Why? I like cash on hand in the short term for optionality. Also, so I’m not a forced seller if something occurs in my life—get fired, health incident, etc. Could I miss the boat on buying more bitcoin if it 10x tomorrow? Sure. I could also capitalize if it gets cut in half in the coming months.
I take my bitcoin allocation seriously. If my expectations of bitcoin come to pass, my investments today will set up my future kids and their kids. If I’m forced to sell or fuck this up, I have missed a great opportunity.
The market will come around to bitcoin. The dollar will continue to lose credibility while bitcoin’s credibility will continue to rise. Most older asset managers will retire, and new ones with less fear of technology will replace them. The stability of the bitcoin network will be more desirable than the unpredictability of the modern financial system.
Bitcoin is made for this.
Sirloin + asparagus tonight.
In October, I started cooking most of my meals with meat and produce from local producers. I also became intentional about cutting out seed oils.
I’m down 15 pounds and have decreased my resting heart rate from the mid-60s to the mid-50s.
Eat better food. You’ll feel better.
Am I only the one who quite enjoys cleaning?
One’s home, like the world, naturally becomes more and more disordered as a function of time. Only through the expenditure of energy can chaos be converted into order.
Dirty laundry becomes clean, folded clothes. Spoiled food is tossed and its dishes cleaned and stored. Microscopic dirt is vacuumed.
The result is order, which to me, eliminates anxiety and distraction—leaving more brain space for thinking and relaxing.
My girlfriend loves that I enjoy cleaning. I love that I can provide her a clean, organized space.
Just a thought.
Once you buy meat from your local farmer, it’s very difficult to return to the supermarket.
Why? You’ve discovered truth.
You aren’t being deceived by imported, nutrient-poor meat. Instead, you are supporting your neighbor while properly fueling yourself and your loved ones.
One of my favorite albums. That time in my life was so pivotal.
Working in TradFi with a strong grasp of Austrian economics seems like a cheat code.