Feels like the MAG7 trade is about to come back when everyone looks for safety from the TLT and all other equities
"Financial crisis' percolate for years and blow up in days" - Paul Tudor jones on CNBC today saying (summarized)
Debt is unsustainable
Deficits as far as the eye can see
Will we have a Minsky moment in debt markets
Owns 0 fixed income
Have to let Tax Cuts expire
To reduce Debt / GDP - Run inflation high, small tax, interest rates below inflation, nominal growth above inflation
Need to be Dovish WITHOUT letting inflation run wild
What Saylor said about the confiscation of gold really gets me and leads to a wider point, which I struggle with a lot when I comes to self custody. Assuming you self custody Bitcoin and the govt declares it illegal to hold bitcoin, what do you do now? Yes you have your bitcoin, but now you are taking massive legal risk holding onto it. If you live in a chaotic state, i can see a reason to leave, but lets assume its US (in current social status) and you have a family and yes economocally things are falling apart which may lead to unrest but there is no place in the world you would rather go either (personal view of this exercise). Realistically I feel most people would turn in the bitcoin due to the level of punishments which would be associated with not doing so. So in this case, whats the difference between self custody and custodial? Curious what you think
What Saylor said about the confiscation of gold really gets me and leads to a wider point, which I struggle with a lot when I comes eto self custody. Assuming you self custody Bitcoin and the govt declares it illegal to hold bitcoin, what do you do now? Yes you have your bitcoin, but now you are taking massive legal risk holding onto it. If you live in a chaotic state, i can see a reason to leave, but lets assume its US and you have a family and yes economocally things are falling apart but there is no place in the world you would rather go either. Realistically I feel most people would turn in the bitcoin due to the level of punishments which would be associated with not doing so. So in this case, whats the difference between self custody and custodial? Curious what you think nostr:npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83a
nostr:note19m2k2pkygs0fu8jp79x5nwfx37lg37y2xh8l6deg5m8ymm3k6hjst7gxkn
Current state of the world : DXY 103.98, SPY / QQQ / GOLD - ATH, Bitcoin $5k from ATH, inflation "2.3%", Residential Homes - ATH, 401k Portfolios ATH, Debt to GDP 122.3%, Fed Fund Rate 4.75% - 5%.
Here's a few more indices which I checkin on throughout the day. these really do give you the lay of the land for the market any given day.
The fed just started their rate cutting cycle and the market has a fairly optimistic scenario priced in. But here's the funny part, since the rate cut cycle began the long end is puking and starting to spike. The 10Y is now at 4.19% as of today. The learn more about this dynamic listen to this Podcast episode from Odd lots
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000673814115
I'll start to put more of these updates as I start build up my posting on here and how i'm seeing the market, the world and life.
“An unproblematic state is a state without creative thought.” - David Deustch, The Beginning of Infinity.
Problems help proper us forward by allowing us to create explanatory knowledge to solve the problems.
Like Jensen said “I wish upon you suffering”
Suffering through problems, solving them and then tackling new problems is the human experience.
Matter, Energy and Evidence
If you’re getting 5.5% with a cash like instrument you are not going to want the long duration treasury at 4% recognizing that the treasury reduces sales of longer duration and feeds the short duration need. If treasury was to sell more longer duration the market would want a higher rate which the fed / treasury does not want right now. When they reduce front end rates then the long end will be more valuable. Unless inflation picks up. Then if treasury want to go out into the direction curve the market may demand higher rates. The treasury again has a choice pump more short term tbills until someone comes to the table who is willing to own longer duration. There has to be some incentive to do so (higher rates is usually the incentive for holding duration).
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