Here they come...
“Recession cancelled!”
“Soft landing!”
“Economy is great!”
“Banks are solvent!”
Remember:
Reassurance is not necessary if the economy is fine!
Reply to this post with examples you find of economic reassurance by politicians & figureheads! Let's see how many there are!
It’s a top indicator!
As mentioned yesterday, the #Bitcoin #Halving Event is coming April 2024. However, a large economic crash is also coming.
What do I think is the most likely path forward? The path that makes the most number of market participants wrong.
These scenarios would make the maximum number of #Bitcoin market participants WRONG:
🔸1. Bitcoin peaks EARLY, some time within the next ~8 months (either making new ATHs or not), or
🔸2. (CONDITIONAL: IF, and only if, a Bitcoin ETF gets approved) Bitcoin could see a secondary pump in first half of 2024, timed with any ETF hype. This peak would be larger than in #1 above.
- Both of these scenarios (and their associated peaks) would occur before the typical bull run timing (which has historically occurred quite a bit after the halving).
- Both of these scenarios would be followed by a large crash, leaving us without the standard bull run after halving event.
- Both of these scenarios would make the maximum number of market participants wrong about the now-mainstream idea of “bitcoin always does a bull run after the halving”:
Summary:
Everyone is expecting a bull run AFTER the halving event. This has become mainstream knowledge after 3+ cycles. The market loves to make the herd wrong. What better way than to peak before anyone expects it?
Background logic:
My 7 minute video here explains why I strongly believe a general economic crash is coming:
https://twitter.com/ColinTCrypto/status/1685280603900366848/video/1
The #Bitcoin #Halving Event is coming April 2024.
However, a black swan economic crash is also coming.
How will these two events interplay?
Listen.
➡️ Bitcoin won’t make it past the halving before the broader economic crash begins. ⬅️
And, for the sake of argument, even if you think the economic crash could somehow be staved off beyond the bitcoin halving event, here is the truth: The Bitcoin Halving doesn’t mark the start of a new bull run.
Historically, there is a 1 - 1.6 year delay until the bitcoin bull reaches its peak. (This could be getting longer each cycle, but we'll be conservative and assume it will follow the same pattern).
So you have to add another 1 - 1.6 years on top of the halving date of April 2024. This comes to Apr - Nov 2025.
It then becomes clear that Bitcoin simply won’t make it to the next bitcoin bull run unscathed by the economic effects of the Fed interest rates being so high.
Corollary datum (like it or not):
Crypto is correlated to stocks. Crypto is not (yet) impervious nor decoupled from stock market shocks. The 2020 pandemic proved this, as just one of the bigger examples. If BTC can't withstand the pandemic crash, how would it withstand a larger stock market crash?
This all being said, a large economic crash can take a long time to fully play out. It could take 1.5 - 2 years for the economy to finish bottoming. That is a long time to experience rallies, but still on the way down.
Optimistic Hope:
Now, maybe— just maybe— at some point during this major recession, some level of bitcoin decoupling occurs, as people flee to safer assets. I am hopeful this is the case and I think it's an inevitable outcome, eventually. But I don't think Bitcoin escapes the initial shocks of a broad market downturn, especially during the acute moments of any steeper stock market crashes.
Either way, it’s going to be a wild ride.
The Very Long Term View:
In the end (with the time frame of a decade+), I have no doubt that BTC will emerge victorious above the repugnant, debased and devalued dollar, which has been printed and then printed some more, into abused oblivion, which is the fate of every fiat currency that ever existed.
May you weather the coming years with both luck and skill!
And, if you doubt that a large economic downturn is happening in the near future, watch this video clip where I detail why I strongly believe this is coming: https://twitter.com/ColinTCrypto/status/1685280603900366848/video/1
This clip was excerpted from the full video:
📽️ Making the Case for the Largest Economic Crash in Many Decades (after the rally ends)
[CONDENSED VIDEO]
How long could we continue to RALLY for before it happens? 📈🚀💥
How to turn this into a Generational Wealth Opportunity. 💸💰🤑🫰
Why is there such a LONG LAG between Yield Curve Inversion and the market's reaction? 🤔⌚
#stocks #bitcoin #recession
#Bitcoin's likely path
BTC continues to roll over as evidenced by:
• Lower highs and lower lows
• Double rejected from underside of $29.6k resistance zone (red line)
• BTC just double tested the EMA 8 and 34 (green and yellow lines) from the underside and was rejected twice.
Where is the next support?
$28.5k. If this doesn't hold, which is quite possible, $27.3k is the next, extremely strong support level. I expect a likely rebound from here if it drops this far.
At $27.3k we have:
• the 200 weekly moving average
• the 200 day moving average and
• the past price structure
All forming a massive support level (white oval on the right). It will be difficult to breach this and is very likely to rebound from here.
📽️ The #Bitcoin Halving Event-- What to Expect in 2024?
200 Day Moving Average and the Stock Market, Observation.
#stocks #btc #recession
📽️ This one UNEXPECTED METRIC tells us when a BIG CRASH is coming. Know what to look for!
How long could we continue to RALLY for before it happens? 📈🚀💥
How to turn this into a Generational Wealth Opportunity. 💸💰🤑🫰
Why is there such a LONG LAG between Yield Curve Inversion and the market's reaction? 🤔⌚
🔵 New ATHs for #Bitcoin and the Stock Market!?!? ETFs and more.
🔵 The opportunity that is coming will be GENERATIONAL WEALTH CREATING
Over the next 10-15 years, I think we'll see:
#Bitcoin to $ 1,000,000
#Bitcoin 100x or more
#Ethereum 250x or more
This is my BIG PICTURE crypto view.
📽️ GENERATIONAL WEALTH OPPORTUNITY:
$1M $BTC (100x #BITCOIN and 250x #ETHEREUM)
Topics & Timestamps:
🔹00:00 Intro
🔹00:30 BTC above $30k is profit-taking territory for me. Comparison to the previous bull run.
🔹05:36 The Fed’s irresponsibility and the upcoming Mega Stock Market Crash.
🔹09:33 Bull rally to continue for the next 0-11 months.
🔹11:24 After the bull rally is done with. Mega stock market crash begins.
🔹13:15 Why I will never sell more than 50% of my Bitcoin – A trade is never a 100% surety.
🔹14:12 Could BTC decouple and become a safe haven during a massive crash?
🔹15:20 Governmental irresponsibility leading to the upcoming financial collapse.
🔹17:59 It’s stupid to NOT own any Bitcoin and to only hold dollars.
🔹19:53 Ethereum Shanghai Upgrade (Unlocking Staked ETH).
🔹22:59 My goal is to have 50% cash and 50% BTC/ETH.
🔹23:46 GENERATIONAL WEALTH OPPORTUNITY: 100x BTC and 250x ETH - My very long term outlook for crypto.
Hello, everyone!
I hope this decentralized social media attempt takes off so we avoid the next Facebook, YouTube, Instagram, Google and TikTok censorship and centralized control.
Cheers! We're still early!