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Tony Carrera
a6dcb481ecebfe58c06c8e48c8c1efe89571c559a06e4df5ca98bdb1109b145f
I sell lights @ apogeehouse.com, an architectural lighting, fans, & controls distributor. Fan of financial markets, tech & BBQ. Always learning. Using nostr to share what I have learned. Nothing I say is financial or medical advice. Assume everything I say is wrong. Do your own research.

2025 has been rough.

nostr:note1m7jtxyyhhaz0kh3rrynvfel8g5dg904p9vcjrmmhklcwralxydnqxv28vx

Nice! I just started getting back into building web apps just for fun and trying Codex by OpenAI. It’s been pretty good so far, was wondering about Claude Code but to get Opus it’s pretty pricey. I think regular sub only gets you Sonnet 4?

Is this about Claude Code? Sorry been away a while!

Replying to Avatar VarMur

I agree with your top four, the clearest pure play picks at the moment, and the diminishing allocation sizes. Different jurisdictions as well.

Strategy and Saylor are in a league of their own. The prefs are, if demand for them is sufficient, a way for Strategy to safely increase their leverage ratio significantly - from 20% to 50% or more. Longer term performance of #MSTR if they manage to maintain the higher ratio will likely be unprecedented.

I wonder if there’s been any discussion on the moat the size of the treasury gives BTCTC’s? To issue preferred equity? And how long can we expect demand for them to grow? How much demand is needed for MSTR to maintain the target leverage ratio - as it keeps getting harder the higher bitcoin goes, and maybe as the treasury grows? Just as the ATM runs into diminishing percentage returns, where are the capacity constraints for the prefs?

If demand for such prefs is constrained, then I could see the senior prefs of large BTCTC’s being more credit worthy as they are more over collateralised - which should give them a lower cost of capital. The actual moat advantage seems to have many variables - like varying demand for the different prefs along the seniority stack, saturation, etc.

Saylor and Mallers have my trust, and have had it since before BTCTC’s.

NAKA not so much - issuing equity to buy stocks of other BTCTC’s is one step too far! It’s like a crazy dilutive actively managed fund Frankenstein. 😂

LQWD claims to use their treasury to provide lightning liquidity and earn 24% btc denominated yield, I think they’re unique in that. The smaller names may be interesting trades (minuscule allocs) if we get a BTCTC mania sometime, but there are so many now. Looks like we’re seeing the beginnings of it.

Honestly, I’ve lost faith in management of most of these. They are either inexperienced, in it for the opportunity (not really BTC focused or maxi), or both.

It won’t end well, think they will slip up and lose keys, negotiate a terrible deal, get in trouble and start cooking the books, etc.

Even Saylor is doing this in real-time and adjusting.

Best thing is be mostly in BTC. These just add some entertainment and leverage. Few BTCTCs will outperform BTC long-term, assuming management can execute. The others likely to be acquired maybe by MSTR or Metaplanet.

Tell me about it haha!

I think you nailed it. To me what makes sense is main allocation to MSTR. If someone just held that as their BTCTC portfolio allocation I think long-term it’s fine.

If you want additional exposure you could add Metaplanet, after that it’s difficult. Smarter Web and Capital B could be a smaller third position.

TwentyOne I think will compete because of nostr:npub1cn4t4cd78nm900qc2hhqte5aa8c9njm6qkfzw95tszufwcwtcnsq7g3vle. Hard to know where to put them now though.

Other than these really hard to know. Management and experience is key with these.

The dark horses are SQNS, ASST, NAKA, and DDC. The rest are lottery tickets.

Did I miss one? I’m losing track.

Great to go back and listen to some of the original Bitcoin podcasts.

Here’s Andreas Antonopoulos’ first appearance on the Joe Rogan podcast 11 years ago.

Very much worth watching.

https://youtu.be/1cexawnOlR8

In your quest for wealth, you often overlook what truly has value.

Any Bitcoiners out there need lighting or lighting advice/consultation?

Would be great to meet other Bitcoin folks and help them with their residential or commercial lighting!

A/V integration, fixture specification, lighting layouts, quotations/bids, etc.

#plebchain #BitcoinJobs

I still think it’s human nature to out off your own good until something bad happens.

Even then, people will shortly return to their old habits.

I call it the Hurricane effect. After a natural disaster, like a hurricane, everyone walks out to assess damage , see who still has power, etc.

Neighbors you barely talk to a house or two down come out and you start talking, a group forms, everyone engages and has hours of conversations. This could be days or weeks in some cases. Everyone says “we should do this more often”.

But shortly after the power returns, people crawl back into their homes and life continues as it always has.

I think this applies to everything. Money, social media platforms, etc.

It requires a lifestyle change – a rewiring.

I hope you’re right though! Hopefully getting rid of fiat fixes it once and for all. Even if it takes a generation or two.

Woke up today thinking – again – how a lot of people are chameleons.

Morphing to please other people. People they barely even know.

No opinion or thoughts of their own.

Everything they think changes based on their environment, who they are talking to, or what group of people they are with today.

They’ll even turn their back on a friend and join a group making fun of them.

Don’t be one of these people. If you recognize this in yourself, work hard to understand why and work to fix it every day.

Having character and standing up for what you believe in is undervalued.

#gm

Bitcoin treasury companies (BTCTCs) are deploying their capital to buy bitcoin in one of two ways.

Lump sum or DCA.

I would argue it’s better for a BTCTC to buy lump sum at their size (like Strategy $MSTR or Metaplanet $MTPLF).

Some other companies like Smarter Web $SWC $TSWCF prefer to DCA over the short-term, hoping to get a lower average price.

DCA works with smaller sums but eventually Bitcoin will run and shareholders will be affected by eventually buying at a higher price.

Picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.

Thoughts? Any interest in Bitcoin treasuries here on nostr? nostr:npub1rtlqca8r6auyaw5n5h3l5422dm4sry5dzfee4696fqe8s6qgudks7djtfs

GM!

Enjoy your Saturday.

Here I just brewed an espresso on the Moka pot.

Sip sip.

#coffeechain #plebchain #grownostr #gm

I assume you had the opportunity to invest in the PIPE?

If so, I get it.

I’m still not exactly sure what $NAKA does, I think it’s be a BTC treasury + actively buyout smaller companies and make them btc treasuries as well or just use their cash flow to fund NAKA’s BTC treasury holdings (like a Berkshire Hathaway)?