Bitcoin and the Future of Security: Will Fees Be Enough? Does the Protocol Need to Evolve?

Bitcoin is approaching a critical phase in its existence: with the next halving, the block subsidy will drop to 3.125 BTC. In the long run, when block rewards eventually reach zero, will the fee market be strong enough to sustain network security?

Today, Bitcoin’s security model relies on two key pillars:

1. The block subsidy → Incentivizes miners with newly minted BTC.

2. Transaction fees → A revenue source that, in theory, must eventually replace the subsidy.

But here’s the problem: the current fee market is not sufficient to support mining on a global scale. If miner revenues drop too much, Bitcoin could become vulnerable to a 51% attack. This is the well-known long-term security problem.

Possible Solutions: More Adoption or Protocol Upgrades?

Some argue that as Bitcoin adoption grows and Layer 2 solutions like Lightning scale, transaction volume will increase, and fees will naturally rise. But this is a gamble—if it doesn’t happen, alternative solutions may be necessary.

This is where potential soft forks could come into play, improving Bitcoin without compromising decentralization. Some examples:

• ANYPREVOUT (APO) → Could strengthen Layer 2 payment systems and improve scalability, increasing demand for block space.

• OP_CAT → Would enable new forms of smart contracts on Bitcoin, driving more sophisticated use cases.

• Simplicity → A more powerful scripting language that could expand Bitcoin’s capabilities without compromising security.

The real question is: can Bitcoin remain secure without any protocol changes, relying solely on fee growth? Or will structural innovations be necessary to ensure long-term security?

This is the challenge Bitcoin will face in the coming decades. Betting purely on organic growth might be risky. But modifying the protocol comes with its own trade-offs.

What’s the best approach? More adoption? Protocol upgrades? A mix of both?

⚡️💭 #Bitcoin #Security #Layer2 #SoftFork

Bitcoin and the Future of Security: Will Fees Be Enough? Does the Protocol Need to Evolve?

Bitcoin is approaching a critical phase in its existence: with the next halving, the block subsidy will drop to 3.125 BTC. In the long run, when block rewards eventually reach zero, will the fee market be strong enough to sustain network security?

Today, Bitcoin’s security model relies on two key pillars:

1. The block subsidy → Incentivizes miners with newly minted BTC.

2. Transaction fees → A revenue source that, in theory, must eventually replace the subsidy.

But here’s the problem: the current fee market is not sufficient to support mining on a global scale. If miner revenues drop too much, Bitcoin could become vulnerable to a 51% attack. This is the well-known long-term security problem.

Possible Solutions: More Adoption or Protocol Upgrades?

Some argue that as Bitcoin adoption grows and Layer 2 solutions like Lightning scale, transaction volume will increase, and fees will naturally rise. But this is a gamble—if it doesn’t happen, alternative solutions may be necessary.

This is where potential soft forks could come into play, improving Bitcoin without compromising decentralization. Some examples:

• ANYPREVOUT (APO) → Could strengthen Layer 2 payment systems and improve scalability, increasing demand for block space.

• OP_CAT → Would enable new forms of smart contracts on Bitcoin, driving more sophisticated use cases.

• Simplicity → A more powerful scripting language that could expand Bitcoin’s capabilities without compromising security.

The real question is: can Bitcoin remain secure without any protocol changes, relying solely on fee growth? Or will structural innovations be necessary to ensure long-term security?

This is the challenge Bitcoin will face in the coming decades. Betting purely on organic growth might be risky. But modifying the protocol comes with its own trade-offs.

What’s the best approach? More adoption? Protocol upgrades? A mix of both?

⚡️💭 #Bitcoin #Security #Layer2 #SoftFork

Global M2 vs BTC update

I still think this is the most likely scenario. Note that doesn't mean it's the only scenario.

🔹 Blast-off date around APRIL 30, using a 107-day offset for Global M2. (has a high mathematical correlation)

🔹 Rally could last for 2 MONTHS, based on how long the M2 line goes vertical (rally could extend longer if M2 continues going up)

🔹 Regardless of the accuracy of the "blast off date", the massive influx of global M2 capital is coming. Don't get caught up in the weeds regarding the exact day. Look at the big picture.

If this subject is new to you, learn more about this apparent, predictive correlation of Global M2 to Bitcoin price movement in the video, in the reply below.

My business bank account was suspended, because I tried to make money transfers from a different country.

Fiat rails are wild.

“So we take these DoorDash loans, combine them, and create a whole new instrument where investors can bet on whether borrowers will pay off their Taco Bell Crunch Wrap Supreme within 12 months”