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jacob
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Bitcoin🥥

They’ve got a rate problem that turns into a credit contraction (banks response to losses) that turns into an NPL problem, that further contracts rates. This all occurred because of the speed they raised rates, most banks didn’t have time to readjust. Why would they raise rates n make their problem worse? FDIC would have to cover more losses. They could cut rates and solve their problem.

Replying to Avatar bigmarh

https://www.fdic.gov/about/strategic-plans/strategic/receivership.html

this says Under the FDIC act that they must move the assets quickly. That's why I ask, if they have to move them quickly who's buying them?

They’re lending them to the fed at Libor plus 50bps and the fed is giving them par.

The assets are going to the fed and the fed is giving depositors par, the fed will then hold the asset to maturity.

If a bank decides to buy assets and liabilities of sivb or signature they will assume both the assets and liabilities. They won’t benefit from this.

The fed could have done nothing in which case by Wednesday there likely would have been a bank holiday as every depositor moved money out of regional banks to the four banks (they are essentially the fed with retail branches).

So you could argue this hurt the big banks because it didn’t give them more deposit base.

SVB was the 16th largest bank by deposit base in the country

🚀

Can you walk us through how it will relate with on / off ramps ?

That’s not true. If it were true they’d have sold those assets, paid depositors, and still be operating.

Instead what happened is they couldn’t sell the assets without causing prices to go lower, so instead the government started an emergency facility which allows for assets to be paid at par, and they will charge fed fund rate to do that.

In other words an $80bln book earning 2% will now get paid out at par but their will be a bill for 4%.

It’s all in the stars and only the wind knows for sure

Why would bond pricing indicate anything?

Bonds and prefs are at the hold co level.

The bank co is in BK. The hold co is not. The hold co has diff assets than the bank co. Previously it had claims to equity value from the bank co, in exchange for the capital it put in. That equity is now gone.

If you’re a developer impacted by what happened to SVB read Satoshi’s white paper and come work in bitcoin.

bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

Bitcoin companies are hiring

Really?

Feels to me like a moment for reflection and foundational shift in the way people think about accessing their funds. Even if regulators did this in order to freeze deposit withdrawals ahead of a weekend sale of the bank and thus ensuring smooth access next week (like FDR bank holiday).

Feels like a natural increase to narrative and conversation around accessing funds and sovereignty