For context here is the current projected SLR data from the AR6 Synthesis Report:

“Relative to 1995–2014, the likely global mean sea level rise by 2050 is between 0.15–0.23 m in the very low GHG emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9) and 0.20–0.29 m in the very high GHG emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); by 2100 between 0.28–0.55 m under SSP1-1.9 and 0.63–1.01 m under SSP5-8.5; and by 2150 between 0.37–0.86 m under SSP1-1.9 and 0.98–1.88 m under SSP5-8.5”

New satellite technology, using LiDAR, is allowing for much more accurate understanding of surface elevation of costal areas.

The older technology was picking up tree tops and building roofs and thus over estimating elevation.

This new, more accurate data, has profound impacts on our understanding of the impacts on sea level rise.

Researchers using this new data have issued this statement:

”Land elevation models applied to date suggest that the increase of land area below sea level will be limited at first but will go faster when SLR continues. When we apply a new and more accurate elevation model we find the opposite pattern, with the fastest increase during the early stages of SLR. In one-third of countries most of this increase will be during the first meter of SLR, and in almost all within the first 2 m. We conclude that in many regions the time available to prepare for increased exposure to flooding may be considerably less than assumed to date, and that better elevation data will support timely preparations.”

It’s coming faster than we originally thought.

Full paper here: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022EF002880

#ClimateLiteracy #SeaLevelRise

#Silo

That is all.

It’s coming at us faster than we thought.

From the AR6 Synthesis Report:

“Levels of risk for all Reasons for Concern (RFCs) are assessed to become high to very high at lower global warming levels compared to what was assessed in AR5 [2014]. This is based upon recent evidence of observed impacts, improved process understanding, and new knowledge on exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems, including limits to adaptation.”

Notice this conclusion “is based on observed impacts.”

Here are some “observed impacts” for North Africa and the Western Mediterranean late April 2023:

“During the last week of April 2023 local temperatures in many regions in #Spain, #Portugal, #Morocco and #Algeria were up to 20 degrees higher than normally at this time of year. For Portugal and mainland Spain the national April record was broken by a very large margin, with 36.9°C and 38.8°C respectively measured in the southernmost parts of the countries. In Morocco, several (local) April records have been broken across the country and temperatures exceeded 41°C in some cities such as Sidi-Slimane, Marrakech, Taroudant. Temperatures exceeded 40°C in Algeria on 28 April (Maghnia, Mascara-Ghriss at least).”

This study just released on this event makes this comment:

“To estimate the influence of human-caused climate change on this extreme heat we combine climate models with the observations. Observations and models both show a strong increase in likelihood and intensity but the change is systematically lower in the models than in the observations. The fact that extreme heat is increasing faster than climate models simulate is a known problem in summer in Western Europe, in all climate models, and is also found here.”

Source: https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/103833/9/Scientific%20Report%20West%20Mediterranean%20Heat.pdf

#ClimateLiteracy #Adaptation

This will give you a sense of what we are dealing with in South Africa at the moment. We are edging closer and closer to a total grid collapse.

Today: 8hrs without power

Sat: 9h30 without power

Sun: 7h30 without power

This is turbocharging the shift to renewables for those that can afford it.

As our electricity grid is the dirtiest in Africa, there is a silver lining to all this, emissions are falling.

#SouthAfrica #GridCollapse #Coal

Ahyay! Ouyay eaksay isthay ootay! 😅

😅

This is a major breakthrough for our early warning systems as we continue to heat.

The new Meteosat Third Generation – Imager 1 (#MTG-I1) satellite takes the most incredible images that will allow forecasters to get advance warning of extreme events. These images will be able to be transmitted every 10mins which is almost real-time.

Checkout the first stunning images here https://www.eumetsat.int/features/discover-first-images-mtg-i1

Your take on this is going to be 🔥 you didn’t spare bsky so this should be interesting 😅

Handy impact map

WMO Press Release: Prepare for El Niño

“There is a 60% chance for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño during May-July 2023, and this will increase to about 70% in June-August and 80% between July and September, according to the Update, which is based on input from WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts and expert assessment.

At this stage there is no indication of the strength or duration of El Niño.”

#ClimateLiteracy #ElNino

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-update-prepare-el-niño

So it’s something new according to this 🤔

As we continue to heat the likelihood of being exposed to heatwaves increases.

Being prepared for this eventuality can save lives.

This latest important research highlights that many places are unprepared.

“Using extreme value statistics, here we show where regional temperature records are statistically likely to be exceeded, and therefore communities might be more at-risk.”

Being unprepared is unacceptable really as we have had ample warning

- CO2 concentrations April 30, 2023 — 424.49 ppm

- Global avg temperature above preindustrial +1.27°C

#ClimateLiteracy #Heatwaves

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-37554-1

🙏🏻

The latest on the ocean current front is this work coming out of Antarctica

News here: https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/science-tech/deep-ocean-currents-around-antarctica-headed-collapse-study-finds

Paper here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05762-w

Video explainer here: https://vimeo.com/810755521

We are going to need to figure out how to adapt faster than the changes, which from the latest instrument data is arriving faster than we thought

Some of the most sophisticated and powerful pieces of equipment we have at are disposal to measure the changes underway on the planet (eg CO2 concentrations, sea level rise and glacier melt) are 🛰️

Here is current array of Sentinel satellites from Copernicus, the Earth Observation arm of the EU Space Programme

Paleoclimatology helps us understand the past (pictured)

If we are unable to stem the CO2 emission trajectory we are on and at the SAME TIME find a way to remove what is already in the atmosphere (420 ppm) we are going to be going through some things - if the Mid-Pliocene is anything to go by.

Temperatures then were 2.5 to 4°C warmer relative to 1850-1900 and sea levels above 5m relative to 1900 - this all at CO2 concentrations between 360 and 420ppm.

Best we mentally prepare for major disruption to everything we have known.

Image source: Pg 45 https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_TS.pdf

A quick look at the heat dynamics currently playing out in #Portugal & #Spain

#ClimateLiteracy

https://fediscience.org/@rahmstorf/110275699191020588

I don’t want to bring bsky vibes here but #[0]​ your thoughtful, calm and sincere comments over there earlier speaks volumes. I am sure it can’t always be easy, with people being who they are sometimes.

Respect.