Something recession callers likely miss: public deficit = private surplus. All that spending keeps propping up the economy.
Add YOLOing Boomers with $100T+ of assets and ultra-cheap NG (negative in some fields); what recession?
K-shaped, Cantillon-skewed non-recession.
Pro-recession arguments: pretty much every recession indicator out there is firing: uninverting yield-curves, Sahm rule, nominal/real retail sales divergence, recessions in many major world economies, GDP/GDI gap, housing bubble, AI bubble, Hussman’s indicators, etc. #recession
Anti-recession indicators: Boomers YOLOing with $100T+ of wealth, massive Fed deficit spending, gov’t realizing stonks down = tax receipts down, flood of crazy-cheap natural gas pouring from fracking fields, dollar milkshake flooding capital from rest of world into US.
My general outlook is real economy continues to stagnate while government/Fed pump financial economy.
And I’m investing accordingly. If enough changes, I’ll change.
Gray Swans: Taiwan, Iran, LR missiles vs Russia
White Swans: Ukraine war end, Israel end, Fusion, AI use cases multiply, string theory bypass, “black ops” science secret, geothermal
Black Swans: nuke, meteor, super volcano, virus, pension/insurance blow up
??? Swan: UAPs
#BTC testing 200 MA and 64-65k resistance at the same time. Taking some profits and waiting to see response.
Likely to be a pullback to at least downtrend line it just passed.
Back up to 90% allocations in #crypto currency. Waiting for a few more signals to deploy last 5% (keep 5% in reserve for opportunities).
RTY back to highs + other indices making ATH bullish. Professional investors need to chase to year end. Soft landing holding (for now).
Most signals say recession imminent, but when heavyweights like Luke Gromman, nostr:npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83a, Doomberg, Centrini, Darius Dale, and Brent Johnson all fade it, I listen.
Trimmed some positions (20% of portfolio) to derisk going into Fed day. Guessing something something QT is going to trigger a surprise rally on back of rate cuts, but cut down my weaker coin positions for liquidity to throw at winners if that happens.
#Bitcoin #Alts #trading
Perfect test of #Bitcoin Aug 29th wick. Now does it push through to 61.5k to sweep the stops and test next resistance level or clear yesterday’s high leverage longs first?
Either way, volatility incoming next week.
Bullish: rally usually follows first rate cuts, surprise QT reduction could 🚀, Yellen spending hand-over-fist.
Bearish: pre-election derisking seasonality, hordes of recession indicators blaring, in larger downtrend.
Still max long but watchful. SLs moved up.
Pretty accurate.
Added to positions as more signs of local bottom. 2/3 allocated now. SL at most recent swing low for pretty much everything.
Lot of resistance overhead; watching signals closely for signs of reversal.
Fed raises rates.
US gov’t increases deficit.
Treasury shifts to shorter term treasury issuance.
All equals more public spending equals more private income.
So if Fed aggressively cuts rates, wouldn’t that accelerate any contraction?
Long SOL, ETH, UNI, AVAX, DOGE, INJ, PEPE, BTC, XMR(still). Plus some high-beta SOL alts with solid-looking charts and close invalidations. 1/3 positioned.
Waiting for more signs/signals of bottom to long more
Unemployment 4.2%- = soft landing hopium = rally until everyone remembers they’re derisking into elections.
Unemployment 4.3%+ = Sahm rule was right, recession is here, let’s go revisit some lows.
TradingView indicators can suffer from “repainting” where past output and live output look different. This can lead to strategies where backtesting makes bank and live trading bleeds.
Just realized all the government data everyone invests off of repaints.
Good article at the end “Read more…” of research on sector performance during bull steepening periods (recessions).
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/nvidia-legal-woes-may-benefit-amd-and-others/
Tl;dr is gold/gold miners do amazing, tech gets slaughtered.
So… is BTC more tech or more gold?
Narrative is that it’s high tech gold, but it trades more like a levered tech ETF…
Maybe I'm paranoid, but markets look spooky:
1) short interest is at multi-year lows
2) several interviewed investors said was the first dip where their clients called asking if they were buying instead of panicking and seeing if they were selling
3) heard an interview with someone who called 2008 who said tops weren't in when breadth was crazy skewed, but when it rotated (breadth is uncannily level right now)
4) now up to 14-15 different people saying market top is next year (with only a few of them saying Q3-4 2024 or early 2026)
5) credit spreads are starting to increase. Just a bit right now, but not much.
6) September will be 1st rate cut and the last few hiking cycles performance after a cut is... bad.
7) Sahm rule triggered, yield curves un-inverting, tons of awful economic data pouring in.
Many saying COVID response skewing data, but my read is that delays, not dispels.
Hopefully I'm paranoid, not right.
Cautiously optimistic on crypto. VIX spike and crush plus SPX rocket off bottom, buyback windows reopened, liquidity rising - conditions there for at least a return to top of range.
Could be a revisit of some long wicks first but looks pretty bottomish. DCAing into coins with lowest drawdowns (TRX for example) waiting for more buy signals from my system.
ETH 2 buy signals, SOL, XRP, BTC still waiting.
How people view money by wealth stratification:
> Impoverished people look at money as a way to survive. “Money lets me eat tonight.”
> Poor people look at money as a way to temporarily escape the realities of being poor. “Money lets me feel better.”
> Middle class people look at money as a way to increase security and stability. “Money lets me sleep at night.”
> Wealthy individuals look at their money as an employee they need to keep busy. “Money lets me earn more money.”
> Ultra-wealthy individuals look at money as an avenue to influence society towards what they believe will benefit themselves/the world most. “Money lets me shape reality.”
Mindset matters.
How do you view money?
Currently about 15-20% allocated to crypto, rest sitting in stables earning yield.
Waiting for retest of all those long wicks and/or system to give go-ahead to increase exposure.
Central planning solves the wrong problem: the problem is that people think they can predict the future, fail, and suffer the consequences.
A good central government would prepare rather than plan for cases when many people fail their predictions simultaneously.
Instead, they predict more strenuously and with more authority, thus amplifying the size of the failure. Worse, they direct resources that could be used to buffer the failure towards creating it!
Go go central preparation!