Investor optimism at an all-time high, but is it confidence or complacency? My latest post explores key market indicators that might have you thinking twice. Be fearful when others are greedy? Read more:
https://capitalnotes.substack.com/p/optimism-is-high
Please like and subscribe if you enjoy the insights. 📈
#stocks #investing #sentiment #stockmarket #psychology #recession #Fed
This chart shows a broad commodities index on the monthly timeframe. I see a breakout of a continuation pattern in a large uptrend that started at the COVID bottom.
This chart is not indicative of continuing disinflation. I suspect that risk asset markets will not be pleased when they realize the Federal Reserve is going to have to stay tighter on monetary policy for longer than is currently being priced in.
#inflation #recession #commodities #stocks #trading #investing #disinflation #Fed #interestrates #FedPolicy #macro #economics #economy 
New on Capital Notes: A deep-dive into current market optimism, economic indicators, and the risks that could be on the horizon. Are we forgetting the long-term effects of global monetary policies? Read now to understand why selectivity in capital deployment is key in today's market.
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https://capitalnotes.substack.com/p/feelings-of-deja-vu
#stocks #investing #sentiment #stockmarket #psychology #recession #Fed
New #Bitcoin analysis on Capital Notes. Dive into recent bullish action, potential rise to $40k, and crypto market trends. Stay informed and subscribe today for insights directly to your inbox.
#BTC $BTC $GBTC #trading #investing
https://capitalnotes.substack.com/p/bitcoins-bullish-rebound
🚨 Debt Ceiling Crisis Looms! US Treasury cash may run out before June. Bond market & CDS spreads signal major issues. 💸 Discover the implications in our latest newsletter!
🔗 https://capitalnotes.substack.com/p/the-debt-ceiling 🔗
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#DebtCeiling #USTreasury #BondMarket #FederalReserve #CDSspreads
📚💡 Stoic Wisdom + Investing = Game Changer! Discover how Marcus Aurelius' "Meditations" can improve your approach to investing through important behavioral finance lessons. 💼📈
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https://capitalnotes.substack.com/p/timeless-wisdom-from-meditations
#Stoicism #Meditations #Investing #Finance #StockMarket #behavioralfinance #stocks #SPY #QQQ
🏦 Nonsense out of the economic leaders yesterday. They seem to have forgotten the entire rationale for QT and raising rates. The entire point WAS TO TIGHTEN CREDIT CONDITIONS so inflation would return to normal. 🤦♂️
#confused #Yellen #Fed #politics
#Bankcollapse #BankingCrisis #recession #news #inflation #macro #macroeconomics #economy
This week's rapid increase in the Fed's balance sheet is I'm extremely important for liquidity conditions.
Check out today's COTD from Capital Notes for more on what's happening and what it means for markets.👇📈📉
#markets #stocks #stockmarket #macro #Fed #FedPolicy #macroeconomics #economy #economics #QQQ #SPY #interestrates #liquidity #assetallocation #investing #trading #news
https://capitalnotes.substack.com/p/cotd-is-the-feds-qt-over
As expected in yesterday's post, oil prices are breaking down and beginning to collapse (chart below). Here is a link to yesterday's post:
I've been predicting deflation to be the primary risk markets are underestimating. This continues to be my primary view. Oil prices and other risk assets under pressure is raising the probability of this view coming to fruition. Here's a recent post where I outlined my concerns about deflation:
What does deflation mean for the economy? Really the only economic outcome that results in rapid dis-inflation or even outright deflation is a recession, causing negative real GDP growth, falling industrial production, declining real incomes, plummeting real retail sales, and a significantly higher unemployment rate. Here's a post from last week where I summarized the vast amount of data pointing at increasing recession probabilities:
The stock, bond, commodity, and now currency markets all seem to be pointing toward this view as we're seeing a resumption of the stock and commodity bear markets AND finally interest rates have started to decline as the dollar catches a flight to safety bid and is powering higher this morning -- both joining stock and bond markets in pricing in the potential for recessionary conditions.
Be careful out there. Be very aware that future asset returns are determined by the price paid. It's now more important than ever to be price conscious about new investment. Remember too, crisis creates opportunity.
#oil #commodities #interestrates #stocks #stockmarket #investing #news #bonds #fixedincome #trading #investment #invest #Fed #FedPolicy #FederalReserve #recession #inflation #macro #markets #economy #macroeconomics
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrRHY0HWYAAC043?format=jpg&name=large
As expected in yesterday's post, oil prices are breaking down and beginning to collapse (chart below). Here is a link to yesterday's post:
I've been predicting deflation to be the primary risk markets are underestimating. This continues to be my primary view. Oil prices and other risk assets under pressure is raising the probability of this view coming to fruition. Here's a recent post where I outlined my concerns about deflation:
What does deflation mean for the economy? Really the only economic outcome that results in rapid dis-inflation or even outright deflation is a recession, causing negative real GDP growth, falling industrial production, declining real incomes, plummeting real retail sales, and a significantly higher unemployment rate. Here's a post from last week where I summarized the vast amount of data pointing at increasing recession probabilities:
The stock, bond, commodity, and now currency markets all seem to be pointing toward this view as we're seeing a resumption of the stock and commodity bear markets AND finally interest rates have started to decline as the dollar catches a flight to safety bid and is powering higher this morning -- both joining stock and bond markets in pricing in the potential for recessionary conditions.
Be careful out there. Be very aware that future asset returns are determined by the price paid. It's now more important than ever to be price conscious about new investment. Remember too, crisis creates opportunity.
#oil #commodities #interestrates #stocks #stockmarket #investing #news #bonds #fixedincome #trading #investment #invest #Fed #FedPolicy #FederalReserve #recession #inflation #macro #markets #economy #macroeconomics
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrRHY0HWYAAC043?format=jpg&name=large
I highly encourage you to read the original post on bitcoin for context on today's post. You can find it here: https://lnkd.in/engmAAKH
In today's Chart of the Day 📊, Capital Notes provides a quick follow up to a detailed analysis on Bitcoin that was published on January 21, 2023.
If you enjoy this type of content, please subscribe to the newsletter to receive it straight to your inbox! 📥
#bitcoin #btc #investing #trading #technicalanalysis #investment #stocks #stockmarket #cryptocurrency #crypto
It's hard for a chart to look much more bullish than the current #bitcoin weekly chart. 📈👇
#btc #crypto #technicalanalysis #trading #investing #news #cryptocurrency
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrMkyweWAAAsC7S?format=jpg&name=large
🛢️⛽️Oil prices are attempting to break a major support level. This is a head and shoulders top and a break down would point to significantly lower prices ahead.
This is deflationary and is confirmed by the rapid collapse in interest rates.
#oil #stocks #XLE #investing #USO #trading #stockmarket #UGA #gasprices #gas #gasoline #investment #macro #economy #economics
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrGlrHTXsAAcE08?format=jpg&name=large
In this morning's Chart of the Day, @CapitalNotes points out the significance of the major moves happening in US Treasury markets. These could signal a large phase shift in both Fed policy and the overall macroeconomic outlook driving asset market prices.
You don't want to miss this one -- and if you haven't yet read the Chart(s) of the Day from Friday, I'd highly encourage you to check it out.
If you enjoy this content, be sure to like and subscribe to the newsletter to receive Capital Notes directly to your inbox!
#news #stocks #stockmarket #investing #finance #trading #realestate #Fed #FedPolicy #federalreserve #markets #bonds #macro #macroeconomics #interestrates #invest #SPY #QQQ #banks #banking #FDIC #yellen #powell
🏦 The Silicon Valley Bank collapse collapse has forced USDC to break its peg to the dollar.
USDC is currently trading at over a 4% discount to the dollar. See the attached chart.
Some of the cash backing USDC was held in Silicon Valley, only $250K is covered by the FDIC, and therefore USDC faces losses on its reserve holdings. At this point, it's unknown if USDC still has $1 in liquid assets supporting the value of every $1 in issued USDC.
Once confidence is lost it's almost impossible to win it back.
This ought to be interesting. 🍿👀
#USDC #USD #dollar #SVB #siliconvalley #SiliconValleyBank #bank #Fed #banking #crypto #stablecoin #cryptocurrency #FDIC #banks #silvergate #Tether #USDT #trading
Great read for any of my Advanced Bank Management students or anyone interested in banking system contagion. 🏦
Businesses with large deposits should consider performing EXTREME levels of due diligence on the assets backing their deposits, the quality, liquidity, and mark to market values of those assets. If uncomfortable with your bank, move your deposits to 1-3 month T-bills. Then instead of having multiple counterparties to worry about you only have one, and they have the power to tax citizens and print money.
#banking #recession #contagion #banks #FDIC #FederalReserve #FedPolicy #finance #business #investing #trading #investment #SilverGate #SiliconValleyBank #SIVB #SI #XLF #bank #money
The Fed is tightening into a disinflationary U.S. recession, but large, structural public fiscal deficits and constraints in energy and commodity supply are likely to generate waves of inflation in the long-term. Liquidity is likely to remain under pressure through Q2 2023 -- keeping a lid on risk asset returns.
#Fed #liquidity #inflation #investing #trading #stocks #macro #macroeconomics