I think the Fed is jawboning at this point and this 25bps rate hike is going to be the latest hike in the cycle. The six-month trailing macro data suggests that the 4.5-4.75 is probably at or above neutral.
Not looking good for the App Store monopolies! This is a pretty big shot across the of Apple and Google. Big surprise is seeing the Biden Administration explicitly call on apple to put Progressive Web Apps (PWAs) on more even-footing with native apps in iOS! https://www.ntia.gov/sites/default/files/publications/mobileappecosystemreport.pdf
Disagree those are the reason/factors. It’s way more complicated than that.
I definitely don’t think that’s what going on, here. I think very much about the generations that will succeed me. I think more than most.
Also, I am pretty afraid of the effect of “audience capture”. A lot of people who position themselves as thought-leaders, become trapped by their audience, and becoming so overly incentivized towards feeding their audience dog-whistles and doing absolutely nothing to piss them off, that they become nothing more than an empty husk of celebrity, repeating talking points. I’d rather have 90% of the world block me and tune me out than succumb to that fate!
… and I’ll be honest. I consider that kind of reaction to be very groupthinky.
A good example, is I am a bitcoiner, but I’m pretty skeptical that hyperbitcoinization will happen. I also think that bitcoin can be a force for liberation and freedom even if state-issued fiat currencies continue to exist. This is a very unpopular view in bitcoin, and it got be blocked, muted and unfollowed by a lot of bitcoiners on Twitter!
You’re only truly an independent thinker if you’re willing to piss off your tribe when you disagree.
Simply being part of a tribe that happens to be in the minority relative to “mainstream opinion” (however you define that term) and declaring yourself independent merely by being part of a minority community, while feeling like you have to stay in perfect ideological accord with that community, is just as much groupthink as basing your political opinions on what primetime hosts on CNN or Fox News tell you to think.
Internet!
Gm!
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I'm back on Damus!
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Make every day sentimental! Try to experience a sense of awe about the world as much as you can!
Reasoning from analogy when it comes to politics and economics is certainly a lot better than a stochastic guess, but it's still an all around terrible way to try and predict the future.
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