Thanks. I just read ARK’s disclosure. I didn’t see a reference to the contractual timeline defining the settlement in the physical bitcoin market. Seems like T+1 or T+2 would be standard across the lot of them for easier administration. If one of them was doing hourly or 5-minute settlement, that’d be a huge competitive advantage for that ETF.

Where is this information? In the disclosures?

But this doesn’t make sense. The sell-off in GBTC is a rollover trade, funds from GBTC are going into the other ETFs. There is a 2-day delay in settlement, sure but the system is working in “steady state” starting market open tomorrow. Not to mention the capital inflows to the ETFs incremental to GBTC. None of these bearish ETF analyses referring to GBTC make sense to me…

Thanks for sharing. I read that, too. I really like James.

It seems like he avoided the concept of T+2 in specifically calling out that net inflows hit two days after the investment. I also read rational root’s analysis and he alluded to a T+1 settlement…

I know “price action” doesn’t matter but given that these ETFs are a huge entry point for a lot of people, it would be good for bitcoiners to know how to talk to folks investing in the ETFs in what is happening with the ETFs and how it impacts the physical bitcoin market.

I’m not on Xitter so not seeing anything that is getting posted over there.

Agree. And tomorrow we should see a pop in the bitcoin markets as that 600M net inflow to the Bitcoin ETFs from Thursday hits the spot Bitcoin market.

nostr:npub1s5yq6wadwrxde4lhfs56gn64hwzuhnfa6r9mj476r5s4hkunzgzqrs6q7z nostr:npub1pyp9fqq60689ppds9ec3vghsm7s6s4grfya0y342g2hs3a0y6t0segc0qq do we know that the ETF settlements are all two day delays? Does that mean the 600M-800M net inflows from Thursday and Friday should settle in the physical bitcoin market on Tuesday and Wednesday?

And at the “current” run rate GBTC will only last ~two months before that whole fee arbitrage trade is wrapped up?

And while no one is timing markets or trading bitcoin (or price predicting) the macro 📈🔥🚀 caused by the ETFs would directionally be (at worst) sometime in late-March?

But … don’t you know … David is really really rich so we have to listen to everything he says.

That’s a legacy of the fiat system that is perpetuating into bitcoin’s culture. It’s proof of work, yes, but we give those early adopters (DB, Peter M., etc.) way more time and influence than they deserve just because of how much bitcoin wealth they have.

That logic only holds for these first 5 days. After this, you’ll see a steady state system where purchases in the physical bitcoin market will happen from ETF inflows two days prior as sales in GBTC happen today.

Amazing that the outflows from GBTC only took us down to $42k … we should be back near $50k mid next week as ETF capital finally hits the bitcoin market.

That’s not what I am saying.

Anyone who bought the bitcoin ETFs on Thursday or Friday will see that capital hit the physical bitcoin market on Tuesday and Wednesday. Because of the settlement window in the ETFs, it takes 2 days for the capital invested in the ETF to be invested into 1:1 backed bitcoin.

So from my reading and learning about how these ETFs function, I am concluding we should see a pretty big inflow into the *physical* bitcoin market on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Because 2% on an asset that’s growing 50%+ isn’t a huge deal. Also, if you sell you pay capital gains…so the more sophisticated GBTC holder is sitting there not wanting to cash out because It is a taxable event.

Higher fees relative to the other ETFs is one reason

Pragmatism at its finest. Put whatever you want in the disclosure…pandora is out of the box! nostr:note1j95wx944qe33hawdxhve0hlf6z3hudherygdda2jaea5v0e3uu0qlgsqgs

The only consideration I’d add is that these aren’t liquidations, they’re mostly rotations. So the market won’t have to “soak up” hundreds of thousands of bitcoin like when FTX, Celsius, BlockFi, etc. went bust and got liquidated.

FTX didn’t convert customer funds into bitcoin, either.

https://giphy.com/gifs/snl-saturday-night-live-season-46-fzJCPdONK9pHAcviY5 nostr:note1w3ensecllnxqw8sudkqe3ucdzvaegm0xzzsr994ul7n6rck8xmmqem23lf

I think he is a mouthpiece for interests in the financial system. I want to know “who” but the “why” is pretty clear after $7B in traded volume led to flat price action. I am confident the “who” can’t keep spending $3B+ daily to fight off the retail demand. The “who” need some FUD to slow down the inflows.

We must have blown through their dry powder for shorting the #bitcoin ETFs on Day 1.

A C C E L E R A T E !!!!

…Bungled that one…

nostr:npub1pyp9fqq60689ppds9ec3vghsm7s6s4grfya0y342g2hs3a0y6t0segc0qqmind cross posting more of your content over here, Dylan? Would be great!