The scale of everything DOGE is doing is insignificant. the refinancing of $6T of national debt is +$60B for for every 1% of interest rate increase over the base … which is probably around ~$150B-$200B of ADDITIONAL interest expense annually.

Bitcoin is gonna be fine. Just clearing the leverage out of the system.

Truth … numbness is a thing. This is the first pullback where I give 0 f*cks.

Oh, there it is.

Where’s the vol?

Support in what way? I think pure bitcoin businesses are missing the plot. The market isn’t there for a lot of this. There just isn’t enough profit in the utilization of pure bitcoin businesses to justify supporting bitcoin only companies.

The path for bitcoin adoption, in my opinion, is companies deploying the treasury reserve strategy, first. You’ve got to get incredibly efficient in your operations and nothing sharpens the pencil better than bitcoin.

Next, in whatever industry that business operates, it should look for ways to build products / services / monetization using bitcoin. Cantor Fitzgerald should build an awesome multisig custodian product. ExxonMobil should mine bitcoin. Apple should build Lightning into Apple Pay. Etc. Etc. ad nauseam.

But the problem with artificially low interest rates for 50 years is that we have overbuilt so much capacity. There is so much unnecessary stuff out there. And outside of buying / selling bitcoin because it protects your purchasing power and can be sent digitally, there is a huge disconnect between the value proposition afforded by bitcoin and the opportunity cost of doing almost anything…let alone trying to build something into this economy with a wildly overbuilt capacity.

I supported Swan as the first bitcoin only exchange that I was introduced to. As they got shadier and shadier, I transitioned to River. But River’s spreads are absurd and I feel like I am getting robbed every time I buy / spend. I would love to support Unchained Capital but their loan products are fucking highway robbery (no fault of their own…the market just isn’t there for “normal” stacks to monetize without spending their bitcoin). But one has to ask, is a bitcoin only company the right one to offer bitcoin collateralized loans? Or is Cantor Fitzgerald? Or JP Morgan? Or my local credit union?

Bitcoin only is a thing because of how rich the early adopters got … and props to them, with no sass or sarcasm. But the market is demanding that other, existing businesses innovate Bitcoin solutions that are still in their infancy. Bitcoin VC is just VC that has no moat once the big boys decide to enter the game.

Bitcoin only is a way to keep the culture alive. Which has value. But if I am allocating capital, I would just buy bitcoin and advocate to my professional and personal circles. Because in the end, hodling does the same thing.

It reminds me of the time Odell told me I was a fucking idiot for telling him that he had to get off Twitter since Elon made blue checks free to accounts with reach…and he was intellectually inconsistent. He was off Twitter within a week.

You’re being nicer about it. I know the truth is inconvenient but you know I’m right. It is an intellectual inconsistency you’re living with - we all do it to a degree; I mean - shoot! - it is the way you and the rest of the Ten31 team get paid to be working in bitcoin.

I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t jealous. Bitcoin VC seems like it’d be an awesome gig. I wish I could have the best of both worlds like y’all do. Frfr

Fiat world lives on … I’m gonna stay humble and stack sats about it. Congrats on the VC gig…

Numb to it all. nostr:note1k78hkutvutqjl06369aa9lh8ld7v9w0sjkskqlarak5jx0xmuhjq6vzyhr

Yes … and their investment in Ten31 and the Ten31 portfolio companies (and the management fees Ten31 charges) will under perform bitcoin.

Bitcoin destroys the VC fund model. VC funds are the centralization of capital with the intent to have a trusted group allocate that capital. Bitcoin will replace VC funds with private syndicates raising specific equity targets.

Look, I support Ten31 and what you’re trying to do … but let’s not pretend that it’s not going to clearly underperform Bitcoin. It’s a shitcoin for investors, but some whale Bitcoin investors might get behind the thesis that more Bitcoin companies will lead to faster and sticker widespread Bitcoin adoption and pump their Bitcoin bags. I don’t.

Stay humble and stack sats about it.

Guilty of #3…in fairness, if we haven’t started the bull market yet, then it is (objectively) the worst bull market ever. nostr:note1qxzquaj82dql3x4kruery4tpceurldu9ec94fhac822hmpyc3aesjejhxv

Your LPs should just buy bitcoin. There is no world where Ten31 (as a complete portfolio) outperforms Bitcoin over 5 years. No chance.

Bro … give maxi class of 2021 some empathy … waiting for that first sweet windfall. nostr:note1zrw22cnq63qmz0e3q87ydfx75cxktdjll6fwdhlqdg303ggzuj0ss86kq5

I got drunk and hung out with him one time a few years back. Good dude.

Ten31 is a shitcoin

I literally almost asked for TA this morning. Wanted to know where we were in the channel. You the man.

100% this …

Even in their success case, tech bros and finance bros aren’t ready for the utility type returns. And that’s IF the regulatory world can protect it like utility infrastructure.

If open source wins then it’ll be akin to the shale revolution. Lowest cost producer wins…lots of bankruptcies. nostr:note1k903j3lesek5t5k76gsdgkhrnv3ftjr6em4afwd8shv2zcagjjssuzx3ew

Can confirm, mentally f*cked. But in a good way.

Slightly different bot … cycle low vs. halving tracker.

It’s been a month since David Bailey advocated levered leverage. The price is down since that advice. nostr:note1rhl2zas5730xt52yejtp65u7xrt7c2qjc2l4zjnvymk48dfwqfxqg72guv

Aye, but there is the rub … on a Sharpe Ratio basis (volatility adjusted return) its current performance is very low for a bull market. We’re due for that rip … like very due … and if we’re not ripping soon then other assets (S&P500, for one) are out performing us on that very important metric right now.

Coiling. Coiling. Coiling… nostr:note1f58wpvr4vzf0sprp3mxyhc5tagrxmkksr3qm4hw0t5l9gtzvjksq885nns