China Morning Missive

First official workday back for us here in #China and the first item on today’s agenda is a complete about-face.

First, as I noted yesterday, Trump and Xi were said to have plans to speak this week. Now Trump says he’s in no rush. No matter how this is spun, what this clearly indicates is that Xi and his team called Trump’s tariff bluff over the weekend by refusing to play the Canadian/Mexican game of engagement. China is willing to see how this plays out.

The Chinese have seen this coming for a long time and have spent four years preparing. Moreover, and objectively speaking, China – as the world’s manufacturer – has greater leverage than that of the US.

What I would add is that optics will play a key role in how China does respond moving forward. Make no mistake. China can inflict real pain on the American people. Thus far, targeting Google or placing an export ban on Tungsten won’t raise the ire of the general population. Cutting off access to, say antibiotics, where China controls half the global market, would illicit a populace reaction.

Early days for sure. What you can be certain of is an ungodly deluge of headlines and “hot takes” by people who have no idea what they are talking about.

China Morning Missive

For all the chatter of Mexico and Canada “caving” to the demands of Trump there’s been shockingly little commentary over #China refusing to engage.

It is rather obvious that the Trump team would have made attempts to hold a call with Xi like what went down with Trudeau and Sheinbaum. Those attempts failed.

Technically this then means that the 10% tariffs on China are now in place. Expect this bilateral pissing match to escalate and escalate quickly. Before the end of this week.

Trump and his people our outmatched, they just don’t know it yet.