🇬🇧 This part of Milei's speech is very important to understand the differences with other historical episodes:
& quot; & quot; The International Monetary Fund & apos; s programmes were historically designed to finance the tax imbalance in the face of the inability to secure financing in the capital market. At the same time, tax correction was always carried out by tax increases, however, with us this changed & gt; & gt;
🇪🇸 Esta parte del discurso de Milei es muy importante para entender las diferencias con otros episodios históricos:
<<Históricamente los programas del Fondo Monetario Internacional estaban diseñados para financiar el desequilibrio fiscal ante la imposibilidad de conseguir financiamiento en el mercado de capitales. Al mismo tiempo, la corrección fiscal siempre se llevaba a cabo mediante suba de impuestos, sin embargo, con nosotros esto cambió>>
https://rss.xcancel.com/juanrallo/status/1911045532270592462#m
🇬🇧 New development of the master plan: computers and smartphones will be excluded from reciprocal tariffs. The iPhone won't finally shoot price.
🇪🇸 Nuevo desarrollo del plan maestro: los ordenadores y los smartphones estarán excluidos de los aranceles recíprocos. El iPhone no se disparará de precio finalmente.
https://rss.xcancel.com/juanrallo/status/1911047933648138329#m
🇬🇧 The end of the exchange rate in Argentina has been a true Liberation Day
🇪🇸 El fin del cepo cambiario en Argentina sí ha sido un auténtico Día de la Liberación
https://rss.xcancel.com/juanrallo/status/1910991963978940507#m
🇬🇧 The comparison of inflation data between 2022 and 2025 (we can see 2023 for the pre-hyperinflationary context) is interesting because it shows the very clear seasonality of the data of education prices, which has raised the average of the general CPI
🇪🇸 La comparativa de los datos de inflación entre 2022 y 2025 (obviemos 2023 por el contexto pre-hiperinflacionario) es interesante porque pone de manifiesto la clarísima estacionalidad del dato de los precios de educación, que es el que ha elevado la media del IPC general
https://rss.xcancel.com/juanrallo/status/1911001574853181769#m
🇬🇧 RT by @ juanrallo: A free market is a free market of government intervention--just as with free speech.
Markets in international trade are less free this week than last week.
🇪🇸 RT by @juanrallo: A free market is a market free of government intervention--just as with free speech.
Markets in international trade are less free this week than last week.
https://rss.xcancel.com/ATabarrok/status/1910716209923838206#m
🇬🇧 RT by @ juanrallo: to the experimental lab and field empirical research showing that agent knowledge of all such information is neither necessary nor sufficient for a market to convert to competitive supply-and-demand balance outputs. 5 / x
🇪🇸 RT by @juanrallo: to the experimental lab and field empirical research showing that agent knowledge of all such information is neither necessary nor sufficient for a market to converge to competitive supply-and-demand equilibrium outcomes. 5/x
https://rss.xcancel.com/burkeanwhig/status/1910744977732218884#m
🇬🇧 RT by @ juanrallo: Larry Summers on why AI might instigate explosive economic growth:
"AI allows a degree of coordination, replication, and scaling that is impossible with people" (36: 50)
Wonder if Larry read my post...
🇪🇸 RT by @juanrallo: Larry Summers on why AI might instigate explosive economic growth:
"AI permits a degree of coordination, replication, and scaling that is impossible with people" (36:50)
Wonder if Larry read my post...
https://rss.xcancel.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1910828035902771272#m
🇬🇧 RT by @ juanrallo: Excellent news from # Argentina and, as no, @ juanrallo already has his video explaining and analyzing them.
The headline was given at 12: 00 in Spanish time and at 3: 00 in the morning, Rallo had already released this video.
Don't you sleep?
https: / / m.youtube.com / watch? v = WtgMtIvkSXg
🇪🇸 RT by @juanrallo: Excelentes noticias desde #Argentina y, como no, @juanrallo ya tiene su vídeo explicando y analizándotelas.
El titular se dio a las 12 de la noche hora española y a las 3 de la mañana, Rallo ya había publicado este vídeo.
¿Es que no duerme? 😴
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WtgMtIvkSXg
https://rss.xcancel.com/AlexViladot/status/1910980166622281993#m
🇬🇧 Right. The data is bad for other very good previous data. But it remains an extraordinary fact compared to the pre-Milei stabilization situation.
From now on, the question is to anchor expectations (and therefore demand for money) within the new exchange rate scheme. If it is achieved, once domestic prices are rearranged in respect of the new exchange rate scheme, good-bye inflation.
🇪🇸 Correcto. El dato es malo respecto a otros datos previos muy buenos. Pero sigue siendo un dato extraordinario comparado con la situación de estabilización pre-Milei.
A partir de ahora la cuestión es anclar las expectativas (y, por tanto, la demanda de dinero) dentro del nuevo esquema cambiario. Si se consigue, una vez reacomodados los precios internos respecto al nuevo esquema cambiario, adiós inflación.
https://rss.xcancel.com/juanrallo/status/1910990106288103556#m
🇬🇧 RT by @ juanrallo: How should Trump adjust the trade deficit: not with tariffs
For a liberal, the decision should be clear: the best way to balance the current account is to reduce public spending
By @ juanrallo https: / / blogs.elconfidencial.com / economia / laissez-faire / 2025-04-12 / como -debia-trump-adjust -el -deficit-commercial _ 4107855 /? utm _ source = twitter & amp; utm _ medium = social & amp; utm _ campaign = BotoneraWeb
🇪🇸 RT by @juanrallo: Cómo debería Trump ajustar el déficit comercial: no con aranceles
Para un liberal, la decisión debería estar clara: el mejor camino para equilibrar la balanza por cuenta corriente consiste en reducir el gasto público
https://rss.xcancel.com/Jongonzlz/status/1910958019363434586#m
🇬🇧 By the way, by extending the weight flotation band to 1,400 pesos per dollar, the market correctly anticipated that there would be devaluation and therefore did well to delay the collection of dollars and advance payments in dollars. Hence the loss of BCRA reserves during March
🇪🇸 Por cierto, al ampliar la banda de flotación del peso hasta los 1.400 pesos por dólar, el mercado anticipó correctamente que habría devaluación y, por tanto, hizo bien en retrasar cobro de dólares y adelantar pagos en dólares. De ahí la pérdida de reservas del BCRA durante marzo
https://rss.xcancel.com/juanrallo/status/1910811224876462215#m
🇬🇧 End of much of the exchange rate in Argentina.
🇪🇸 Fin de gran parte del cepo cambiario en Argentina.
https://rss.xcancel.com/juanrallo/status/1910810491779506483#m
🇬🇧 Thank you. But still, to study and criticize Marx rigorously, it is always good to read Marx himself and to contrast what he says with what he says (and I criticize).
🇪🇸 Gracias. Pero, aún así, para estudiar y criticar rigurosamente a Marx, siempre es bueno leer al propio Marx y contrastar lo que dice con lo que explico (y critico) que dice.
https://rss.xcancel.com/juanrallo/status/1910759944552333795#m
🇬🇧 Except for strengthening the protection of intellectual property, I wish this was the end of history. But we are not aware that this is something that any of the parties involved want.
🇪🇸 Salvo por lo de reforzar la protección de la propiedad intelectual, ojalá éste fuera el fin de la historia. Pero no tenemos constancia de que sea algo que desee ninguna de las partes implicadas.
https://rss.xcancel.com/juanrallo/status/1910766995672363166#m
🇬🇧 Previsible bad inflation in March (we already advanced it a few days ago). Although not as bad as the figures indicate: core (underlying) inflation only rises from 2.9% to 3.2%. The remaining rise is due to seasonal prices (up 8.4%).
However, the relative deterioration is clear: the expectations of devaluation during March in the face of the IMF agreement depreciated the weight and were incorporated into domestic prices. If there is a rearrangement of the exchange rate scheme following the agreement with the IMF (as it seems to be), that is, if there is a certain devaluation, it is equally likely that several months will come with higher inflation than we had used to in the previous months.
However, this realignment between domestic prices and the exchange rate should not be confused with the country's galloping inflation year and a half ago. As long as budgetary and financial stability is maintained, that is a matter of the past.
🇪🇸 Previsible mal dato de inflación en marzo (ya lo adelantamos hace algunos días). Aunque no tan malo como las cifras indican: la inflación núcleo (subyacente) sólo sube del 2,9% al 3,2%. El resto de subida se debe a precios estacionales (que suben 8,4%).
Aun así, el empeoramiento relativo es claro: las expectativas de devaluación durante marzo ante el acuerdo con el FMI depreciaron el peso y se incorporaron a los precios internos. Si hay reacomodamiento del esquema cambiario tras el acuerdo con el FMI (como parece que así será), esto es, si hay una cierta devaluación, es igualmente previsible que vengan varios meses con una inflación más alta de la que nos habíamos acostumbrado en los meses anteriores.
No obstante, no habría que confundir este realineamiento entre los precios internos y el tipo de cambio con la inflación galopante que sufría el país hace año y medio. Mientras se mantenga la estabilidad presupuestaria y financiera, eso es cosa del pasado.
https://rss.xcancel.com/juanrallo/status/1910772370849018358#m
🇬🇧 Public spending does not go down but goes up with Trump
🇪🇸 El gasto público no baja sino que sube con Trump
https://rss.xcancel.com/juanrallo/status/1910725458804564421#m
🇬🇧 As Xi's call didn't come, Trump called.
🇪🇸 Como la llamada de Xi no llegó, ha llamado Trump.
https://rss.xcancel.com/juanrallo/status/1910700357904199993#m
🇬🇧 In socialist Spain, it is preferable for the company and the worker to charge EUR 16,500 per year than EUR 17,250.
🇪🇸 En la España socialista, es preferible para la empresa y para el trabajador cobrar 16.500 euros anuales que 17.250.
https://rss.xcancel.com/juanrallo/status/1910647259412242779#m
🇬🇧 Here are several important comments. But in essence: if the US really wants to end its trade deficits, global demand for its public debt will tend to fall. In fact, it is the US that will have to start buying debt from other countries.
Remember that a deficit in the trade balance (in the current balance) involves the entry of funding into your country. A trade surplus means that you provide funding to the rest of the countries.
🇪🇸 Aquí se hacen varios comentarios importantes. Pero en esencia: si de verdad EEUU quiere acabar con sus déficits comerciales, la demanda global de su deuda pública tenderá a caer. De hecho, es EEUU quien tendrá que comenzar a comprar deuda de otros países.
Recordad que un déficit en la balanza comercial (en la balanza corriente) implica entrada de financiación a tu país. Un superávit comercial supone que tú das financiación al resto de países.
https://rss.xcancel.com/juanrallo/status/1910617216539660783#m