AMD: What’s Actually Driving Its AI and Data Center Growth
There’s been a lot of noise around AMD vs. Nvidia, but underneath that is a clear trend: AMD is quietly building a real end-to-end stack for AI infrastructure. The execution is finally syncing across hardware, software, and systems.
Here are the key technical drivers — prioritized by near-term revenue impact:
→ MI350 (CDNA 4) GPUs
Launching mid-2025, 35× performance leap vs. MI300X. Plug-and-play compatible with current systems. Already in deployment w/ Oracle. This is AMD’s most credible shot at real inference market share.
→ EPYC Turin (Zen 5) CPUs
Live and scaling. 150+ server platforms. 30+ new cloud instances from AWS, Google, Oracle. Contributed to 57% YoY data center revenue growth in Q1. This is not a future story — it’s booked compute today.
→ MI300X + MI325X
Deployed and earning. Used in live LLM inference (e.g. LLaMA 405B). MI325X improves memory and smooths path to MI350. Transitional, but real.
→ Ryzen AI Series (Client AI PCs)
+50% QoQ notebook sell-through. +80% YoY commercial designs. Supported by top OEMs. May not be a long-term moat, but drives ASPs now.
→ ROCm Stack
Bi-weekly updates. 2M+ Hugging Face models supported. Day-0 support for LLaMA 4, Gemma, DeepSeek. No longer an adoption blocker.
→ ZT Systems Acquisition
Now AMD can sell rack-level, fully integrated systems (CPUs + GPUs + networking). Competing with Nvidia DGX on infrastructure, not just chips.
Why It Matters
AMD isn’t trying to be Nvidia — it’s building a full-stack alternative for a world that wants optionality.
They still have to execute cleanly — MI350 rollout is critical. But this isn’t a “wait and hope” story anymore. The pieces are live.
9/
Still early. Nvidia’s CUDA + Blackwell + market capture is real.
But AMD isn’t just playing catch-up.
They’re building something that fits the post-monopoly stack.
8/
What matters:
→ Turin is already delivering
→ MI325X is ramping
→ MI350 is sampling
→ ROCm is working
→ ZT is the enabler
This is no longer “wait for next gen.”
They’re in market. And in motion.
7/
Acquisition of ZT Systems plugs the final gap:
Full rack-scale systems — CPUs + GPUs + networking.
Think Nvidia DGX competitor — but modular.
ZT gives AMD the vertical muscle to sell full AI infrastructure to hyperscalers.
6/
The missing piece? Software.
ROCm isn’t CUDA. But it’s catching up. Fast.
Bi-weekly updates. 2M+ Hugging Face models supported.
LLaMA 4, Gemma, DeepSeek — all Day-0.
This used to be AMD’s moat problem. Less so now.
5/
AI PCs are noise in most headlines, but Ryzen AI is actually selling.
+50% QoQ notebook sell-through
+80% YoY commercial design wins
HP, Lenovo, Asus — all in.
Does it matter long-term? TBD. But it’s margin-positive now.
4/
MI300X and MI325X are shipping now.
They’re handling real-world inference, including Meta’s LLaMA 405B.
MI325X builds on MI300X — better memory, better economics.
Sets the stage for MI350 without disruption.
3/
But the present is moving too.
EPYC Turin (Zen 5) is in-market, shipping, and scaling.
Used across 150+ server platforms.
30+ new cloud instances live from AWS, GCP, Oracle.
This isn’t theoretical traction — it’s booked compute.
2/
The upcoming MI350 (CDNA 4) GPU series is the big unlock.
Mid-2025 launch. 35× perf over MI300X.
No need to redesign racks — it drops into current MI300 systems.
Major deployment w/ Oracle already underway.
That’s not roadmap noise. It’s movement.
1/
AMD isn’t Nvidia. It doesn’t need to be.
What matters: they’re finally building a full-stack AI/data center offering that’s real — not theoretical.
Execution is lining up. Revenue is following.
A few key reasons why:
Bear case watch:
ARPU growth slowing (6–7%)
FCF down YoY
Monetization still lags engagement
If Roku can’t close that TRC-to-revenue gap, the multiple stays stuck.
But if it does — re-rating potential is huge.
#Investing #Compounders #TechStocks
Roku’s valuation disconnect is wild:
TTD trades at ~9.5x P/S
Roku trades at <2x P/S
Yet Roku is growing faster AND scaling EBITDA more efficiently.
This isn’t a hardware company anymore — it’s a CTV operating system with ad rails.
#Streaming #FCF #Roku
Revenue growth is decelerating — from 22% in Q4 to 15.8% in Q1 — but margins are accelerating.
This isn’t just a “growth story” anymore. It’s a platform leverage story.
EBITDA growth:
Roku: +109%
TTD: +89%
NFLX, GOOGL, AMZN: all lower
#Stocks #Monetization #Valuation
Roku Q1 2025: Mispriced or Misunderstood?
Roku posted +109% EBITDA growth and +15.8% revenue in Q1 — beating most media and ad tech peers. Yet it still trades at <2x P/S.
Here's why this stock might be the most undervalued platform in CTV.
#Roku #AdTech #Earnings #CTV #TTD
My latest on #ROKU stock
https://primal.net/e/nevent1qqsvlupqxgk350p26nytcghjjszc8rh8hpf9em78utelue77fpz2geq0qk8a9
Roku Q1 2025 Earnings: Growth Slows, But Monetization and Margins Improve
Takeaways from the Roku’s 1Q25 earnings release
Source: Author’s summary
Yes, Roku’s revenue and EBITDA growth slowed in Q1 2025 — and it’s not just a seasonal blip. Revenue rose 15.8% year-over-year, down from 22.0% in Q4. EBITDA growth also decelerated, landing at 36.9% compared to 62.5% the previous quarter. The slowdown is real, and it’s raising legitimate questions about how well Roku’s monetization strategy is holding up now that scale isn’t the main constraint anymore.
So what does this actually tell us? For starters, engagement still isn’t translating cleanly into revenue. In Q4, Total Reach Campaign (TRC) usage was up 82%, but that surge hasn’t been mirrored in top-line growth — a gap that continued into Q1. That suggests ad yield and efficiency aren’t fully dialed in yet. Roku may be brushing up against short-term ceilings in either ad load or CPMs. It also hints that platform leverage — turning user growth into consistent profitability — may take longer to materialize than investors hoped.
Recalibrating Thesis for Roku
But it’s important to separate signal from noise. This doesn’t necessarily mean the model is broken. Margins are still expanding, just at a slower pace. It also doesn’t mean Roku can’t reaccelerate. The upcoming quarters, with tailwinds like the Olympics and back-to-school ad cycles, could provide a better environment. And from a valuation perspective, the stock doesn’t look overhyped — trading at around 2x sales with positive free cash flow, it’s no longer priced like a high-flyer.
The real shift here is in how Roku should be framed. It’s moving out of “growth stock” territory and into “compounder candidate” territory. The key question now is whether Roku can grow EBITDA and free cash flow by 20–30% annually, even if revenue growth stays in the 12–15% range. If the answer is yes, then the stock remains undervalued — but you’re betting on margin expansion and operating leverage, not explosive revenue gains.
Looking ahead, there are a few markers to watch. The bull case strengthens if EBITDA margins continue climbing toward (or past) 10%, ARPU keeps growing in the double digits, and Roku begins closing the gap between TRC engagement and monetization. You’d also want to see small-business adoption and demand-side platform (DSP) integrations driving more ad demand. On the flip side, it’s a warning sign if revenue growth dips below 12%, quarterly EBITDA stalls under $60–70 million, free cash flow turns structurally negative, or engagement starts plateauing — especially on the TRC or home screen.
At the end of the day, the market’s asking a simple but critical question: Can Roku actually monetize like a platform — not just look like one? If the answer’s yes, this quarter is just a breather before the next leg up. If not, the stock could stay in “show-me” mode for a while.
Peer Comparison for Roku
Shifting gears, let’s try to compare the company’s financials against a set of peers. However, the company doesn’t sit neatly in one category. It’s part CTV infrastructure, part ad tech, part streaming service, and part consumer platform. That kind of overlap makes it tough to find a single, clean comparison. So the smarter move is to build a blended peer group, organized by how each company makes money and what strategic role they play.
Let’s break it down by category:
1. Streaming Platforms (SVOD/AVOD hybrids)
These are companies running both subscription and ad-supported streaming models — similar to Roku Channel’s hybrid approach.
Netflix (NFLX): Their recent ad-tier rollout mirrors Roku’s model, and they bring scale and original content to the table.
Disney (DIS): With both Hulu and Disney+ under its belt, Disney combines subscriptions with ad-supported streaming across a massive content portfolio.
Paramount Global (PARA): Owns Pluto TV, one of the bigger FAST (free ad-supported streaming TV) platforms — a direct comp to Roku Channel.
2. FAST & Ad-Supported Streamers
These are Roku Channel’s most direct competitors in the free, ad-supported space.
Fox Corp (FOXA): Owns Tubi, a pure-play FAST service gaining traction in CTV.
Comcast (CMCSA): Runs Peacock (which mixes SVOD and AVOD) and has a growing presence in smart TV operating systems.
Amazon (AMZN): Fire TV competes with Roku hardware and OS, plus it’s layering in more ad-supported content within Prime Video.
3. Ad Tech Platforms (especially in CTV)
Roku makes a big chunk of its money through ads — both programmatic and direct. So comparing it to pure-play ad tech firms is useful.
The Trade Desk (TTD): The closest comp in terms of ad monetization and targeting in CTV.
4. Platform + Hardware Ecosystem Players
Roku’s model is also tied to its OS and hardware — so you can’t ignore these players.
Apple (AAPL): Apple TV combines OS, hardware, and monetization, just like Roku.
Google (GOOGL): Android TV/Google TV competes directly with Roku’s OS, and YouTube is pushing further into ad-supported streaming.
Source: YCharts
Looking at trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue growth, Roku stands out at the top of the pack with 13.5% growth — ahead of The Trade Desk at 12.4%, Netflix at 10.7%, and well above Alphabet and Amazon, which both came in below 10%. Traditional media players like Disney, Comcast, and Fox are further behind, with most under 9% and Comcast barely scraping past 2%.
The key takeaway here is that Roku is growing faster than both old-school media companies and many tech peers, yet it trades at a fraction of their valuations. The contrast is especially sharp when compared to The Trade Desk — Roku is growing slightly faster, yet trades at under 2x price-to-sales, while TTD sits around 9.5x. That valuation gap underscores the broader point: Roku is executing more like a premium ad-tech platform than a traditional media or device company. The market, it seems, still hasn’t caught up.
Source: YCharts
The EBITDA growth story is even more compelling. In the latest quarterly numbers, Roku posted a 109.4% year-over-year increase in EBITDA — the highest among all major peers. The Trade Desk followed at 89.8%, with Google and Amazon at 47.8% and 30.9% respectively. Netflix and Apple posted growth in the low double digits, while Disney, Fox, and Comcast hovered around 13%, with Comcast actually in negative territory. Roku’s operating leverage is accelerating faster than any of its comps, which speaks volumes given the ongoing concerns some investors have had about margins. These results show that Roku’s platform monetization is improving meaningfully, and the company is managing costs with increasing discipline. It’s a clear signal that the business has moved well beyond its hardware roots.
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Altogether, these performance metrics validate the core investment thesis: Roku isn’t just recovering — it’s outperforming. The company is growing faster than Netflix and Disney, while scaling operating profit faster than The Trade Desk, yet it remains priced like a legacy media device maker. Roku is being misclassified in the market, and that disconnect is precisely where the opportunity lies. If you’re building a forward-looking valuation case, this is where to focus.
What to watch for in ROKU
To keep a close eye on the bear case for Roku and spot any early cracks in the thesis, it’s smart to focus on the metrics that really matter: how well the platform is monetizing, the health and engagement of the user base, and whether margins are scaling with revenue. These three pillars — monetization efficiency, user quality, and operating leverage — are the foundation of the long thesis. If any of them start to weaken, it could be a sign the story is changing.
Source: Author’s Summary
Wrap up
Roku’s core investment thesis is still intact, though there are early signs that the company is shifting from a hypergrowth story to one of a scaling, maturing platform. The company continues to execute well — expanding monetization across its platform, deepening its hold as the dominant TV operating system in the U.S., and showing meaningful improvements in operating leverage. The growth is real and diversified, but it’s becoming more measured and execution-driven. We’re moving into a phase where success depends less on sheer user growth and more on how well Roku can optimize each piece of its ecosystem.
The key risk — and it hasn’t changed — is the monetization vs. engagement gap. Roku continues to grow user numbers and watch time, but unless that engagement translates into higher ARPU, the rerating case weakens. This remains the single biggest variable in the bull case. The next few quarters need to show progress in bridging that gap, whether through new ad formats, deeper Frndly integration, or more effective home screen monetization.
So here’s the updated framing: Roku is no longer just an ad-tech story in the making — it’s now a scaled, profitable CTV platform. But to earn a higher multiple, it has to prove it can convert that scale into consistently stronger per-user economics. Until then, it’s best thought of as a “compounder in training” — one with strong optionality, a defensible infrastructure advantage, and a platform that’s still maturing into its full monetization potential.
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Final thought:
The market’s asking one question —
Can Roku monetize like a platform, not just look like one?
If the answer’s yes, Q1 is a breather.
If not, $ROKU stays in “show-me” mode.
11/
Framing update:
$ROKU ≠ just a streaming device or channel.
It’s a CTV infra + ad-tech + platform monetizer with real optionality.
A “compounder in training” — not a flashy growth story, but a scalable one.
10/
The market still misprices $ROKU like a hardware company.
But it’s executing like a scaled ad platform with CTV OS dominance.
This valuation gap vs. comps (e.g. $TTD at 9.5x sales) is the opportunity.