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Jon
d3b8824cee7590b9f7120ec4e91a70af614980aee7986d7becf1de99dcafa791
Software engineer, gardener and sadly fiat miner living in Wales. Bitcoin advocate
Replying to Avatar fnew

You may have seen the clip of Steve Baker

doing the rounds this weekend. You may have laughed or dismissed his comments, perhaps because you disagreed with him on Brexit. But if you did so, please listen again, because what he's saying is important:

"Your government rode an enormous credit boom within which the money supply tripled, leading to the global financial crisis…and a sense of injustice which has led to many of our subsequent troubles.”

Then read the article shared in the thread, on the $91 trillion debt burden that is currently facing nation states around the world.

There is an unpalatable truth here, which sooner or later we are going to have to acknowledge:

The only way to get rid of a $91 trillion dollar debt is to debase the currency to the point where a trillion dollars will only buy you a loaf of bread.

There’s no sensible way in which a debt of this magnitude can ever be repaid, either through growth or taxation. So what may be likely to happen in the coming years, as this vast web of obligations compounds and continues to grow at an accelerating rate? This is a problem currently confronting Rachel Reeves, our new Chancellor, and Labour, and with which they must engage.

Debt, and credit, are not necessarily bad things. Credit oils the wheels of commerce, and enables us to pull profits from the future to invest and to grow businesses today.

But the warnings of the Ancient Greeks and the Romans that we should do ‘nothing to excess’ were as true for them as they are for us (nihil nimius in Latin, meden agan in Greek – common sayings for each culture, but sadly forgotten by us). There is no sense in which government debts equal to the size of the entire global economy are not excessive and are not a gigantic problem almost beyond resolution.

There are ways out, but none of them palatable. Default, refinancing, or inflation – which will we choose? (Remember that inflation, the enemy du jour, is actually rather good for some people – especially those who owe large sums of money; like nation states).

In our credit-based system, money is nothing more than another person's liability (whether the liability of a central bank, or of a commercial bank). It is backed by absolutely nothing other than the belief that the liability will be repaid (to quote even more Latin, this is the origin of the word 'credit', which comes from the Latin credo credere, to believe).

If a person holding your liability money begins to believe that you're not good for the money, the entire edifice collapses.

Governments cannot allow this loss of faith to happen. Remember, modern money is backed by absolutely nothing other than faith and belief. So a voluntary default (a refusal to pay) is off the table.

Refinancing is possible - issuing new debt to pay the principal and coupon of the old. This is the route most governments that can still access the bond markets have taken to date. This works up to a point, much like taking out a new credit card to pay off a previous one.

This doesn't get rid of the debt – it merely moves it around and can make it easier to service, but ultimately adds to the debt burden in the long run and has the unfortunate effect of compounding it at the same time. If you’d like to see this in highly unpleasant action, just read up on how the IMF and the World Bank treat borrower nations in the global south. I would recommend the excellent book 'Hidden Repression' from Alex Gladstein (link in the thread).

Which leaves us with debasement through inflation.

Governments will almost never admit or articulate this, but the surest way to get rid of a trillion dollar government liability is to debase the currency to the point where the nominal value of their obligations is negligible when measured in a currency whose actual value they have destroyed.

The quote below is from ‘When Money Dies’, a seminal work on the Weimar inflation. Bondholders and mortgage holders might eventually have got repaid in nominal terms – but the amounts they received were meaningless in comparison to the actual value of the assets that the debtors held (such as houses).

This is a nation state problem, but the profligacy of nation states has also made it YOUR problem.

Governments are by their nature unproductive - their sources of income are typically either their citizens (through taxation) or accrued via issuing liabilities against their good name (which, in a circular fashion, is actually yours). In one sense, nation states levy taxes not because they need the money – they can usually print it, after all – but in order to reassure the potential purchasers of their government debt that they are good for the money (belief, once again).

The exceptions to this tend to be the states that are the net exporters of the fundamental currency that actually enables civilisation to exist, namely energy.

So how can you protect yourself, if the conclusion is that the only likely solution to this gigantic problem is strategic inflation and currency debasement?

One option is to save whatever you can in hard and finite assets that cannot be replicated or produced with zero cost. That is, don't think you can save in government liability money.

Unfortunately, this practice has already hugely contributed to housing inequality in the UK, where, whether they know it or not, the richest among us have figured this out and keep their money not in cash but in houses.

You too should have the right to protect yourself - but I'd also like to see an alternative to a 'flight to housing' that exacerbates other social issues. Perhaps find something else. Ideally something that the government cannot confiscate when the house of cards finally comes tumbling down.

You'll likely know what I would recommend. But this is something you'll need to decide for yourself, and on behalf of your children, who will unfortunately inherit the mess that our governments and central banks have made.

So if I have a large mortgage then I'm potentially better off with bigger inflation?

I think the only way a #pleb can affect the #bitcoin price is to withdraw from exchange

who broke it?

#bitcoin

I have songs on my #spotify playlist that I added 14 years ago.

It's strange looking back at what they were and thinking about what I was doing then and where I was. A strange trip down memory lane.

Also a lot of songs that I no longer know why I liked them.

Exactly what I thought. We don't have some sort of multi sig in nostr right?

Hopefully, I've just sold my house. Had an offer at the amount we wanted.

Now hopefully we can buy the property we want which is a bit different as it's a grade 2 listed building.

Don't you just hate it when you forget to finish your cup of tea

Right, let's go and buy some meat for the BBQ

If energy is so important for the #uk, why do we supposedly need government subsidies?

Replying to Avatar Beautyon

The Fall of Anti-Bitcoin

As I’ve said many times before. Everyone and every nation will eventually capitulate to Bitcoin. The latest nation to capitulate is Great Britain, whose army of anti-Bitcoin propagandists has just received orders from The Motherland that Bitcoin is to be fully embraced.

For years, Frances Coppola has been one of the most strident, steadfast and consistent anti-Bitcoiners. You could rely on her to provide every irrational pretext for rejecting Bitcoin; every trope, misreading, propaganda line and pretext. She Podcasted against Bitcoin, wrote articles against it, and did everything you saw and would expect a hard core anti-Bitcoiner to say and do.

And now look at her.

In this BBC piece on Bitcoin, the entire narrative has turned 180° from “skepticism” to “Bitcoin is the future and we are now embracing it”.

Because America is embracing it.

Understand that this is just the first part of the total capitulation of Great Britain to Bitcoin. Frances says Bitcoin is good, “As a store of value” after having spent years saying that it is the opposite of a good store of value, “Because it is volatile”.

Bitcoin hasn’t changed. Frances has changed.

The capitulation narrative begins by conceding ground bit by bit. First they concede that Bitcoin is a store of value, next they will concede that it acts just like money and can be used for small, everyday transactions. They have no choice but to concede this.

For years I have been gently trying to persuade The British Government in public and private to take a rational stance on Bitcoin, precisely to avoid the 100% predictable outcome you are seeing today. Which is another country will be the leader in Bitcoin.

Right now, that leader is El Salvador, that has fully embraced the “Consumer Bitcoin” ecosystem by making it Legal Tender. The USA is a close second because the SEC was forced to capitulate by a court order to allow “Free People” to do math and make promises (Bitcoin ETFs).

El Salvador is missing the financialization part, and the USA is missing the Consumer Bitcoin part. Either one of these great countries could do both and take the lead; it all comes down to legislation and leadership.

What we can say for sure is that Great Britain will not be able to catch up now. They were warned 10 years ago by me:

Our submission to the British Government’s “Digital currencies: Call for Information”

We made the following submission to the British Government’s “Digital currencies: Call for Information”. There is at…

medium.com

Had they listened, neither El Salvador or America would have a chance to lead the world on The Golden Path to Bitcoin.

All the entrepreneurs, businesses, know how, software and systems expertise, methods of exchanging and conversion would have been born in Britain, and they would have been able to sell this expertise and invite people from all around the world to participate…and be taxed…in Britain.

They even had two of the world’s greatest experts on Bitcoin living in London, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert, who are now official advisors to the government of El Salvador. Imagine what would have happened had Britain embraced them as advisors? First of all, their expertise would have been denied to other nations, and Britain would have been the leader by default.

But no. Britain chose the way of the Luddite, and even chased businesses out of Britain. Look at the headlines for yourself…

London-based digital wallet provider Mode is shutting down

Nexo ‘closing two UK subsidiaries

UK Shuts Down Temporary Crypto Company Licensing

PayPal to halt UK crypto sales until 2024

UK Regulators Order Shutdown of Cryptocurrency ATMs

London based Bitcoin App Bottle Pay Shuts Down

There are many Bitcoin infrastructure and consumer facing companies that started in Britain and left (Azteco is one of them) and that were shut down by the imposition of the most insane rules you could not imagine in your worst nightmare.

Wallets run by incorporations in the UK were told that they must not only KYC their users, but that they must also KYC the users who send Bitcoin to their users who are not their users!

I’m not making this up. The FCA has done a thorough job of killing any nascent Bitcoin startup running in the UK, dissuading companies not in the UK to do business from there and generally being a constant irritant. The receipts are available, obviously.

Watch now, as orders coming from on high cause the FCA to 180° on Bitcoin in a desperate, pathetic attemtpt to stanch the flow of brains from Britain.

It’s too late.

Not only did the FCA make it impossible to run a Bitcoin company in Britain, they deliberately made it impossible for any financial rails company to do business with a Bitcoin company.

I can tell you from first hand observation that all financial rails companies, even very big ones, are all terrified of the FCA, and will scarcely take a piss in their own offices without checking if the FCA allows it.

It therefore was impossible to run a Bitcoin business from inside Britain. That was the entire idea.

Now that that policy is abolished, you can expect a huge Public Relations campaign to be launched to try and induce Bitcoin Businesses to relocate in Britain.

They are going to have a hard time convincing anyone.

Why should anyone running a Bitcoin business incorporate in Britain when you can incorporate in El Salvador and be guaranteed that you not only have a stable, safe, First World level country, but that you will not, as a Bitcoin company, be taxed?

You’d have to be BARMY to risk putting down stakes in Britain when incorporating in El Salvador is a matter of a phone call.

And while we’re at it, as a suggestion, El Salvador must partially deregulate its banking sector, or it will lose this race forever.

What can you expect next from Frances Coppola in terms of narrative capitulation?

You can expect her and her class to concede that Bitcoin for consumers is a good thing, and that it can be used not only just as easily, but more safely for both consumers and business globally.

She will concede that Lightning is a real thing, and that on it, the entire world can use Bitcoin. She will concede that the Unbanked will all be put on Bitcoin. She will capitulate in everything she has said against Bitcoin, and abandon the prosaic, poetic pretexts for its failure, like, “The value of Bitcoin is exogenous” and other similar guff.

You were all told this was coming, and you refused to listen, either because your culture is anti entrepreneur, or because you were told to lie about Bitcoin in a vain attempt to prevent it from spreading.

Either way, you all failed.

Now the inevitable is inevitable. Bitcoin is going to do EXACTLY WHAT BITCOINERS SAID IT WAS GOING TO DO and there IS and was NOTHING YOU CAN DO ABOUT IT.

Bitcoiners won.

You LOST.

There is no inducement now that can be offered to any Bitcoiner to incorporate in Britain. That ship has sailed, like the ships taking the first colonists to New England.

No one is coming back, not even if you pay them. You can’t pay them because you have no money (BITCOIN) to pay them with! LOLOLOL!

And just so it’s perfectly clear, the other predictions about Bitcoin that we’ve been making (see the link in my profile) are also going to come true, and those are also now unstoppable, inevitable and very soon to come to pass.

YOU LOVE TO SEE IT!

https://twitter.com/search?q=beautyon+%22Frances+Coppola%22&src=typed_query&f=top

https://medium.com/@beautyon_/our-submission-to-the-british-governments-digital-currencies-call-for-information-160fbf103bbc?source=post_page-----626eb10561d6--------------------------------

https://medium.com/@beautyon_/over-9000-7f6547aeff86

A shameful state of affairs.

What options do we have?

I've got a kinetic watch. It's lasted decades.