The Exciting and Terrifying Future of AI: A Journey Toward 2027 and Beyond
A thought-provoking but descriptive piece by @leopoldasch - situational-awareness.ai quickly became one of my top reads of the year. Here’s a breakdown of my key takeaways.
The AI Feedback Loop: A Catalyst for Exponential Growth
One of the most intriguing concepts discussed is the idea of AI reaching a point where it can conduct AI research, creating a self-improving feedback loop. Imagine AI systems enhancing themselves or each other, leading to rapid advancements. This isn't just a futuristic fantasy; it's a logical progression of current trends. Human development is compounding, but AI development is closer to exponential.
To illustrate this, consider a sports stadium. If you start with a single drop of water (0.05 ml) and double it every minute, by the 39th minute, the stadium would be only 3.1% filled. Yet, it would overflow just five minutes later. This analogy highlights the non-intuitively power of exponential growth and how quickly AI could evolve based on recent advancements, with each improvement cycle leading to the power of 10 advancements.
From GPT-2 to GPT-4 and Beyond: A Leap Toward AGI
The journey from GPT-2 in 2019 to GPT-4 in 2023 represents a leap from the intelligence of a pre-schooler to that of a smart high school student. By 2027, we might witness another leap of similar magnitude, potentially leading us to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This would mean AI systems capable of outperforming even the best human researchers. Illustrated by the water level, a 3.1% filled stadium was GPT-2. A 100% filled stadium was GPT-4. And by 2027, 10,000 stadiums will be filled with water.
This current pace of AI development is proceeding at roughly three times the speed of human child. As such, it's crucial for us to upskill and adapt. As the saying goes, if you can't beat 'em, join 'em.
Challenges and Uncertainties: Power and Alignment
While the potential of AI is vast, so are the challenges. One significant constraint is power. As AI systems grow, they require immense amounts of electricity. By 2030, power could become the binding constraint, with AI training needing about 20% of the current US electricity generation. Building new power plants, especially nuclear ones, takes time—often a decade or more.
Another critical issue is super-alignment: how do we control AI systems that are much smarter than us? Current alignment techniques may not scale to superhuman AI, posing a risk of catastrophic failure if things go awry during an exponential intelligence advancement.
The Global Race for Superintelligence
Superintelligence offers a decisive economic and military advantage. Nations will race to develop their superintelligences, and there will be a limited window before one pulls irreversibly ahead. This could lead to attempts to disable rival superintelligence clusters before they gain a decisive advantage.
The hope lies in an alliance of democracies maintaining a healthy lead in AI over adversarial powers. However, the stakes are high, and the outcome uncertain.
The Role of Government in Managing Superintelligence
The advent of AGI as a national security concern necessitates government involvement. Startups excel at commercializing AI, but they aren't equipped to handle the geopolitical complexities. Government involvement will be crucial in ensuring that superintelligence is developed and managed responsibly - the free world’s very survival could be at stake.
#AI #AGI #FutureTech #ExponentialGrowth #TechGovernance