Avatar
nout
deba271e547767bd6d8eec75eece5615db317a03b07f459134b03e7236005655
Chief user experience complainer. Head of FOMO.
Replying to Avatar Super Testnet

Thoughts about Moore's law

The chart below is in logarithmic scale:

https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-c4d853586c9387861f0f219700476c85-lq

It charts the growth of cpu speeds in comparison with the VAX 11/780. It suggests that Moore’s law stopped applying around 2003. I decided to continue the chart using gigaflops as a metric for cpu speed.

I don’t have data on how many floating point operations the VAX 11/780 could do but I suspect it is “none” because I think the first cpu advertised as being capable of floating point operations was the Intel 8087 in 1980.

According to stack exchange it could do 50 kiloflops or .05 megaflops or .00005 gigaflops. It was in 1975 that Moore made his prediction that computers would double in speed every eighteen months, which is the same as saying it would quadruple every three years. If that had been what happened, these would be the numbers:

1980: .00005 gigaflops

1983: 0.0002 gigaflops

1986: 0.0008 gigaflops

1989: 0.0032 gigaflops

1992: 0.0128 gigaflops

1995: 0.0512 gigaflops

1998: 0.2048 gigaflops

2001: 0.8192 gigaflops

2004: 3.2768 gigaflops

2007: 13.1072 gigaflops [note that in 2007 the Intel Core 2 Quad Q6600 was a high end cpu, and it could do 25 gigaflops so we were a bit ahead of Moore’s law]

2010: 52.4288 gigaflops [note that in 2010 the Intel Core i7-980X was a high end cpu, and it could do 98.4 gigaflops so we were a bit ahead of Moore’s law]

2013: 209.7152 gigaflops [note that in 2013 the Intel Core i7-4770K was a high end cpu, and it could only do 177 gigaflops so we fell behind Moore’s law at about this time]

2016: 838.8608 gigaflops

2019: 3,355.4432 gigaflops

2022: 13,421.7728 gigaflops

2025: 53,687.0912 gigaflops

But in 2025 we are actually at 1,696 gigaflops in 2025 with the Intel Core i9-10900K. We are now significantly underperforming Moore’s law. It slowed down around 2013, by my numbers.

You can run floating point calculations on any CPU. You don't need acceleration, but you have to then actually manually do those in microcode. This applies on VAX.

Ark works without any changes (afaik currently on testnet), but it would get better properties with some covenants or code.

Yeah a lot of CPU/GPU time could be saved if they just cache the response 🙂

Replying to Avatar calle

🚬

One word. Cache.

We are about to get load from Ark and bunch of others "ZK L2s" like Citrea that are close to launching on mainnet. So my take is that people should prepare for high fee environment in the next 6 months.

It's both. Empty mempool means less incentives for improving lightning or other layers, but empty mempool also means that people can ~easily send their bitcoin in fully self custodial way with only a small fee.

Mempool is empty! Go!

Cleaning and vacuuming rugs, how about you?

Bought with bitcoin. Obviously.

#coffeechain

For the sad path - does each participant have to do 4 txs or is it 4 txs per pool?

Is there a way to make the malicious pool manager pay for the exit txs, e.g. by initially having some bond?

I had a small surgery on my leg recently. I never mind seeing blood or anything, so during the surgery I was chatting with the surgeon, he was showing me the pieces ho just took out of me, etc.

But then out of nowhere I started to feel weird, the voices and sounds just became humming, my vision turned into a tunnel, I felt dizzy, I remember thinking "well, this is interesting" and then sort of going through a checklist in my head "hm, vision out", "hearing out", "brain stopping".

I squeaked something at the doctor and he immediately got me to a better position, got me water and I came to my senses gradually.

This was the first time in my life when I felt like fainting (and almost fainted). I was like wow, what an experience, what a weird feeling. After this I was shaky more than an hour...

I still wonder what exactly triggered this. I think it was my brain unconsciously getting into a spiral about seeing outside something that should be inside.