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Jonathan
e0339348ca6cac9708cd98e631e2f4baad534dfce870881b65aa57d30ff7253e
Hacker, cypherpunk. All memes are my own.
Replying to Avatar Jonathan

https://ai-2027.com/

https://openai.com/index/introducing-o3-and-o4-mini/

We appear to be hitting the "Reliable agent" section of the AI takeoff timeline. o4 is probably a real human level coder at this point if the Codeforces benchmarks are anything to go by.

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/04/a-note-on-o3-and-agi.html

Tyler Cowen is calling o3 and o4-mini AGI. If we’ve hit the point where LLM models can actually handle being set loose on a code base and doing useful work, the takeoff may really have started.

I’m not completely sold yet that this is it. But it’s the first time that it feels close. I’ve never had this feeling before. It feels like the beginning of autocatalysis is breathing down our necks.

nostr:nevent1qqs8fzev0txhrdnn4ec5wzrdxzuw87pmjgwjgt4lu30stfju0n6p0jq7e4qts

https://www.molsonhart.com/blog/america-underestimates-the-difficulty-of-bringing-manufacturing-back

Lots of good points here. One thing I hadn’t considered is that tariffs make it really difficult to establish manufacturing here. The cheaper option may simply be to do as little manufacturing in the US as possible and only import the finished product rather than deal with the complexity of an industrial supply chain and trying to import the intermediate products to do the manufacturing domestically.

Yeah lol no kidding, like why your cats are getting drunk and dying of liver failure after the eyelid update.

Replying to Avatar Jonathan

https://www.wsj.com/politics/elon-musk-children-mothers-ashley-st-clair-grimes-dc7ba05c

I guess… it’s good Musks actions match his rhetoric on repopulating the planet? Besides that this seems like super weird fetish behavior.

Took a shower and rethought my opinion. I know a lot of people say it’s gross, but if men were truly honest with themselves there has to be an innate biological urge to have as many babies with as many women as possible. Musk simply lacks the moral system (religion, etc.) or the biological capacity (Asperger’s) to feel much shame. He also has the money to pay lots of women to have babies with him.

It’s still gross behavior, but I think more men would do the same in his position than would admit it.

nostr:nevent1qqs0w4cvxg35psxzhdr4zpzeyy0ju0q29pgua7x3adexhmjn4r7srugqs44qc

https://www.wsj.com/politics/elon-musk-children-mothers-ashley-st-clair-grimes-dc7ba05c

I guess… it’s good Musks actions match his rhetoric on repopulating the planet? Besides that this seems like super weird fetish behavior.

https://ai-2027.com/

https://openai.com/index/introducing-o3-and-o4-mini/

We appear to be hitting the "Reliable agent" section of the AI takeoff timeline. o4 is probably a real human level coder at this point if the Codeforces benchmarks are anything to go by.

Replying to Avatar Laser

A high-temperature wet sauna operating at 200°F+ is extremely rare, as wet saunas (e.g., steam rooms) typically maintain temperatures between 90–120°F with near 100% humidity to produce steam. If a sauna is both wet (high humidity) and consistently reaches 200°F+, it would still not be entirely free from mold risk, though the risk is reduced compared to standard wet saunas. Here’s why:

- **Impact of High Temperature on Mold**:

- Temperatures above 200°F can kill many mold spores and inhibit growth on exposed surfaces during active heating. Dry heat at this level can reduce microbial loads, including fungi, as shown in studies on sterilization (e.g., 200°F for 30–60 minutes can deactivate many spores).

- However, some mold spores (e.g., *Aspergillus* or *Stachybotrys*) are heat-resistant and can survive brief exposures or remain dormant, reactivating when moisture and lower temperatures return.

- **Challenges with High Humidity**:

- A wet sauna at 200°F+ would still have high humidity to generate steam, creating a paradox. High humidity (even at elevated temperatures) promotes moisture accumulation on surfaces, in cracks, or in hidden areas like ventilation ducts or under benches. These areas may not consistently reach 200°F, allowing mold to persist.

- During cool-down periods after sauna use, temperatures drop rapidly, and lingering moisture creates ideal conditions for mold growth, negating some of the sterilizing effect of the high heat.

- **Practical Limitations**:

- **Surface and Material Issues**: Porous materials (e.g., wood) or poorly sealed grout can trap moisture, fostering mold even in high-temperature environments. Hidden areas may not reach sterilizing temperatures.

- **Ventilation**: Inadequate airflow can trap humid air, increasing mold risk. Even with high heat, ventilation is critical to remove moisture.

- **Maintenance**: Without regular cleaning and drying, mold can establish itself in areas where moisture persists, especially if the sauna is used intermittently.

- **Comparison to Dry Saunas**:

- Dry saunas at 200°F+ (e.g., Finnish saunas) have lower mold risk due to minimal humidity, but even they require maintenance to stay mold-free. A wet sauna at 200°F+ would face greater challenges due to the constant presence of moisture, making it less effective at preventing mold than a dry sauna.

- **Evidence**:

- While specific studies on 200°F+ wet saunas are scarce (due to their rarity), research on humid environments (e.g., *Indoor Air*, 2019) shows that high humidity consistently correlates with mold growth, even in warmer settings. Anecdotal reports from sauna maintenance professionals also highlight mold in poorly maintained steam rooms, regardless of temperature spikes.

**Conclusion**:

A wet sauna operating at 200°F+ is not entirely free from mold risk. The high temperature may reduce mold growth on exposed surfaces during active heating, but the persistent humidity, cool-down periods, and potential for moisture buildup in hidden areas still pose risks. To minimize mold:

- Use mold-resistant materials (e.g., non-porous tiles, sealed cedar).

- Ensure excellent ventilation to remove humid air.

- Clean and dry surfaces regularly, focusing on corners and drains.

- Inspect for mold signs (musty odor, discoloration) frequently.

If such a sauna exists, rigorous maintenance is essential to approach a low-risk state, but complete elimination of mold risk is unlikely due to the inherent moisture.

It looks like Grok is mixing up steam rooms with Finnish saunas. If you leave your sauna wet all the time at low temperatures (90 to 120 degrees is an incredibly low temperature for any real sauna) then yes you may have problems. But with a real Finnish sauna (not the steam rooms Grok keeps talking about) alternating between wet and dry sessions definitely does kill germs, bacteria, and mold.

That's why, for example, Finns would give birth in saunas because they were such a sterile environment.

https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2025/04/03/brazils-government-run-payments-system-has-become-dominant

Not a good sign for privacy focused digital currencies like Bitcoin. People will choose whatever is easiest and government run payment systems are easy.

Stock market: Thinks tariffs will be bad for business

Bond market: Thinks tariffs make US bonds riskier than Greek bonds

Consumers: Think tariffs will worsen economy

US Dollar: Worsening against other currencies

MAGA: BuT tHe TrADe DeFiCItEs

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

Not enough people are talking about the fact that if the US has massive tariffs with other countries, there's always another country waiting to give them a hug be that rebound boyfriend after they've been dumped: China.

There's just a few countries left that have more trade with us than China and with the tariffs it will probably end up being just us and hopefully Canada and Mexico.