The Bitcoin community has some of the most passionate haters in the world.
The purity test and virtue signalling has stifled much creativity in the space.
Don’t build products for Bitcoiners, build products for people who want to use Bitcoin.
Benefits of a Bitcoin-based prediction market:
1. Censorship resistance: unstoppable bets and rewards
2. Privacy: no need for an account, just a lightning wallet
3. Hard money: bets are denominated in sats, not fiat
Adding nostr in the mix can enable opt-in identity and crowdsourced events.
What would you suggest? We're open to ideas. We were thinking:
- elections
- sports/esports
- central bank interest rates
- bitcoin price
- geopolitical events (war/conflict)
Blessed, I just shared
You can bet with sats on the US election and other events on bitcoinprediction.market
I now see how ecash could actually be a great solution to enable private and anonymous prediction markets with Bitcoin + Lightning.
Nostr needs a capital incentive baked into a product that can deliver a 10x order of magnitude improvement that current technology cannot provide. Clones of existing apps don’t deliver a substantial UX improvement for the vast majority of users. The nostr product that will go viral with normies is a product that is fresh.
In my opinion decentralized prediction markets over nostr create that capital incentive that is an order of magnitude improvement on centralized prediction markets. The improvement is obvious: anyone can ask a question and provide liquidity to bet (with Bitcoin, not a shitcoin). In centralized implementations only the prediction market operator can ask questions and provide liquidity according to LMSR. Decentralizing that opens the flood gates to anyone asking any question they want and enabling people to trade on those outcomes.
The difficulty with prediction markets over nostr is implementing trust minimized contracts/share issuance and redemption in event outcomes. It’s a hard technical problem, which is why we don’t currently have an implementation, but it’s possible to do.
see past the veil only to witness another illusion
When I hold my keys to my coins 
me on nostr talking about nostr 
The bottom of one rabbit hole is the entrance to another 
I’m trying to see some spicy hot takes on this censorship resistant protocol
Call me crazy but I haven’t yet seen a single post on nostr that would get censored on twitter
Definitely not cashu. Custodial is a honeypot that’s begging to be shut down. Ecash is completely centralized, antithetical to the objective of decentralized prediction markets.
DLCs need a transfer mechanism, but it’s definitely possible, just technically complex. Just lock the share cost amount of sats in DLCs with an AMM counterparty, and can trade the conditional payment with that transfer mechanism.
L2s would be a cheat code by reducing trust assumptions, could suffer from same centralization risks as ecash. I’d rather use Liquid than cashu because at least theres native limit order books and the ability to create tokenized shares.
Why not respected? Are they using the free and permissionless internet protocol differently than how others want them to use it?
You suffer because you disagree with the fundamental nature of reality. People change, deal with it.