Isn’t this just tiktok/reels/shorts/short form audio visual content lol
Silk road was custodial.
Silk road was revolutionary.
Custodial technologies can also be revolutionary if we use them for liberation and freedom.
P2P bitcoin-denominated bonds? Could be an interesting mechanism to facilitate loans, but I have questions.
How would one mitigate credit risk in a p2p context? Govt and corps issue fiat bonds to raise capital, and that works because people trust those institutions. In a p2p anon context that’s more difficult to assess. If Alice loans some money to Bob by purchasing Bob’s bitcoin bond, then what is stopping Bob from running away and not paying the BTC back?
If the BTC loan is over collateralised with more BTC, then what’s the incentive for taking out that BTC loan in the first place, when you already have that amount of capital to begin with?
It looks cool, gonna talk to jungly about it soon
I haven't been able to conceptualize a mechanism that incentivises honesty, so the oracle problem really just boils down to a web-of-trust/reputation scheme.
The critical problem is more so that there needs to be some agent receiving bets (as Bitcoin/Lightning transactions) and that same agent redistributes rewards. If there is no centralized agent, then it could be conceptualized as a decentralized p2p betting market, but then there is no forecasting benefit that a prediction market provides, it's just people placing/taking bets at whatever odds they are comfortable with.
The issue with prediction markets is that they are centralized trusted third parties that aggregate bets to forecast event outcomes. Centralized helps because it enables more aggregation of information, but also it opens the market to threats from hostile agents.
I've thought about how to do decentralized prediction markets, and I've found that simplistic "betting markets" are possible, but not LMSR based prediction markets that provide forecasting alongside betting.
nostr:nprofile1qqswr3azuct6plf94zeez7ya32jxw8qav806rqq6uck6ax0nh076gdcpzdmhxue69uhhyetvv9ukzcnvv5hx7un8qyf8wumn8ghj7mn0wehkztnwv9nk77tpqyt8wumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnswf5k6ctv9ehx2aq3f670w when nostr logging and sharing your bets as a note?
We're working on developing an LMSR based prediction market where you can buy and sell shares. Once that's launched we can develop extra features like a nostr bot to broadcast trading activity (while maintaining privacy).
Nostr login + lightning login will also be integrated
BitcoinPrediction.Market is the only place where you can bet on the difficulty adjustment.
Will the recent increase in hashprice cause an increase in difficulty?
That’s just a design choice. You can get different odds by betting on one outcome or the other.
You do not. If you bet correctly then you get sent a reward after the event outcome occurs.
New markets on bitcoinprediction.market
Will the U.S. declare war on Iran in 2025?
Will Israel declare war on Iran in 2025?
Monetize your knowledge and help forecast the future by placing a bet on the most likely outcome.
Founder here. Yeah you can’t exit the bets, it’s similar format to a horse race. If you bet correctly we’ll send you a payout to your lightning address, after overwhelming consensus is reached as to who is elected. I’m guessing there will be some conflict after voting is done, so we’ll wait to resolve until after news media + polymarket resolves.
We’re currently building a mechanism to trade shares with Bitcoin (on-chain + Lightning). Then we can list events that are much further in the future, which is what I’m personally excited about.
Gm Austin
Bitcoinprediction.market election odds:
Trump: 69% chance
Harris: 41% chance
7 million sats bet (~$4.6k USD) so far
Prediction markets are thinly disguised opinion markets.
The bets people place are akin to speech, reflecting the formatting of their consciousness.
Their predictions of the future are really projections of their individual reality.
Currently the most popular prediction markets (politics and sports) are the ones where people have the most strongly-held opinions.
It’s about feelings not about facts.
I dunno probably because people like yourself didn’t arb it yet
If you think Trump is going to win, you can stack more sats by betting against Kamala than by betting on Trump.
94% ROI betting against Kamala vs 66% ROI betting on Trump
