Bitcoinprediction.market election odds:
Trump: 69% chance
Harris: 41% chance
7 million sats bet (~$4.6k USD) so far
Discussion
This is very far from all other polling. Someone must be inaccurate.
Is it, bitcoiners made a more accurate prediction than everyone else?
Or a very skewed sample that doesn't represent the voting populace + wishful thinking from the betters?
If it is B there seems to be a smart bet here with good odds.
win 50% more for a trump win and up to 2.5 times more on a kamala win.
Trump has some good odds, but don't forget to gamble on kamala too in case of election interference.
Both sides serve the same master
Who's doing this? Amazing but i couldn't find the info if you can exit the bet be fore the event
Founder here. Yeah you can’t exit the bets, it’s similar format to a horse race. If you bet correctly we’ll send you a payout to your lightning address, after overwhelming consensus is reached as to who is elected. I’m guessing there will be some conflict after voting is done, so we’ll wait to resolve until after news media + polymarket resolves.
We’re currently building a mechanism to trade shares with Bitcoin (on-chain + Lightning). Then we can list events that are much further in the future, which is what I’m personally excited about.
How do you exit?