“Time Preference”- 8th Edition

1) # Full nodes (reachable) - 15,919 (-4.49%)

2) # LN nodes - 15,572 (-0.08%)

3) LN capacity (BTC) - 4,713 (-0.89%)

4) BTC addresses > 1M sats - 12.25M (+0.22%)

5) BTC addresses > 10M sats - 4.44M (+0.17%)

6) BTC addresses > 100M sats - 1.01M (+0.14%)

7) Hashrate (EH/s) - 406 (+5.66%)

8) Price - $26,040 (-11.84%)

9 Price/Hashrate - 64 (-16.57%)

10) Michigan businesses accepting BTC (btcmap.org) - 21 (n/c)

* % change figures from prev. week

We have movement! On the bright side, number of addresses w/ a balance greater than 1M sats continue to grind higher, all the way through balances greater than 1 full BTC. Week in and out this has been consistent! A big downside I see from previous week is almost a 4.5% DECREASE in number of full nodes reachable. Will keep a close eye on this one in the next few weeks.

As we all know, price went down, a lot. Yet hashrate continues to soar! Price / hashrate multiple has to be one of the lowest it's been (if not ever?), almost 17% DECREASE in one week. I'd really like to understand what's driving this hashrate increase lately! Putting it into perspective, my estimates show hashrate has increase 25% in the last 5-6 months alone, all while Bitcoin price has remained essentially flat from early March until now. What gives?

#bitcoin #timepreference #mining #lightningnetwork⚡️

Fourth turning during the fourth halving or?

Oh no

New nostr idea popped up

😬

handy

Ever since around 2013/2014, bitcoin’s price has closely followed the rate of change in the growth of global broad money supply (M2) in USD terms.

In other words, from the perspective of macro investors (which are generally different than network users), it is the asset that best serves as a pure-play on changes in global liquidity. It’s a hedge against monetary inflation, not CPI inflation.

Notably, the dollar index relative to other major currencies strongly affects global monetary inflation.

So in order to have a view on price within any intermediate term timeframe (eg the people calling for new ATH prior to the next halving), it’s important to have a view on global monetary inflation and liquidity, because that is primarily where new external demand comes from.

Right now, bitcoin is a coiled spring on the supply side (fast money is out, coins have rotated towards strong illiquid hands), but the demand side (and thus the price) is largely a question of global liquidity.

We had an awesome chat during Meshtadel on the 8th 🙏🏻. We talked about so many cool things, and one topic that led me to writing this note was P2P trading (Sats to fiat and/or products).

A lot of Bitcoiners prefer (and they're totally right) P2P trading but here's the deal: most of these P2P trade prices are based as a premium on the current spot price which is determined by comparing the broadcasted value on centralized exchanges (automatically by the P2P exchange or by the actors themselves). Now we are all cheering for the liquidity on those exchanges lessen since this means more traders become HODLers, getting their sats off the exchange, leaving only those sats on the exchange that are A) an urgent sell (a HODLer depositing Sats he plans to sell due to whatever need) B) people who were planning to sell anyway (and C) owned/custodied by the exchange which is one of the argumentations to get our sats off the exchange)

So all that we have on those exchanges is A) sell pressure, B) Weak hands (and C) Manipulation utxo's)

Not arguing to use centralized exchanges more, but rather asking the question: Is there not a better way for P2P price discovery than what we are seeing now.

The answer of the "why" for the current situation is in my simple understanding (read: I am just guessing ) : this is what the market demands. But the market demands that because the market is looking for a measuring stick.

As a lot of Bitcoin-'educators' pointed out already: Fiat is a broken measuring stick, but even when trading P2P we are still falling for that broken measuring stick.

Maybe it is time for the Sat/egg index 🤭. The amount of Sats that the market valuates a specific daily useable good that is sensitive to inflation, preferably fulfilling one of the basic needs (such as in the egg example food.)

Maybe revhodl@vida.live could create a Sats-to-Lamb index we can follow 😉

#Mesthadel #MeshtadelMushings

Yes I think it will come with the next cycle. As more stablecoins get issued by fintech incumbents the market will get more competitive and stablecoins will be forced to pass along the yield they’re capturing to remain competitive.

Long term I think these institutions could cross into the systemically important territory

Stablecoins are on pace to become the new money market funds - Crypto L1s will live and die by demand for these coins

Investors will buy and hold them to earn a yield from the debt backing them

That "yield" is derived from fiat debt issuance and this system will grow even more rapidly than fiat debt

It will be called the next innovation of crypto

A crisis will emerge with stablecoins losing their peg - effectively "breaking the buck"

Nothing about this system will enable freedom

Stablecoins are on pace to become the new money market funds - Crypto L1s will live and die by demand for these coins

Investors will buy and hold them to earn a yield from the debt backing them

That "yield" is derived from fiat debt issuance and this system will grow even more rapidly than fiat debt

It will be called the next innovation of crypto

A crisis will emerge with stablecoins losing their peg - effectively "breaking the buck"

Nothing about this system will enable freedom

When I think about it, basically every piece of investing advice I got early in life was to assume a little to no risk.

This is terrible advice.

Fail hard and fast early so that you have time to recover.

Let’s try this again:

What if you knew that whatever you’re going to do today, you WILL fail at accomplishing.

What do you decide to do anyways? nostr:note1uht4r25gsn290gtuju0cxq5fjq28kgcvp62w3tqu6smn0vrc9ynqghn4s0

When is the Ann Arbor one?

Hello, I am a cryptocurrency expert with a blue check on 𝕏 and here is a thread on why the Lightning network is a complete failure that nobody will ever use.

🧵 1/237

Also if anyone has ideas for a good name for a NOSTR based meetup site... nostr:note10gwwyxknr9ssfm7wjt7rh4y3wesa7xqjtk364u0dpm6w2m2f7dlqnda2td

Assuming the author has enough left over to save after they pay the bills this month, yes 😅💜