Escobar: The Chihuahua Energy Policy - It's A Gas, Gas, Gas
Escobar: The Chihuahua Energy Policy - It's A Gas, Gas, Gas
Authored by Pepe Escobar,
Let’s start with the tale of an Empire bragging to the wind.
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https://sputnikglobe.com/20250128/pepe-escobar-dancing-to-trumps-disco-inferno-1121513139.html
orders OPEC and OPEC+ to lower the price of oil, because, in his mind, that may solve the war in Ukraine – as in forcing Moscow to the table because of dwindling energy revenues.
That in itself summarizes the level of garbage being fed to POTUS by his cornucopia of acronyms passing for intel.
Trump at Davos:
“I’m going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil (…) If the price came down, the Russia-Ukraine war would end immediately. Right now, the price is high enough that that war will continue (…) With oil prices going down, I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately. And, likewise, they should be dropping all over the world. Interest rates should follow us.”
Quite predictably, OPEC+ – basically run by Saudi Arabia and Russia – said Nyet. Apart from the fact they don’t care much about interest rates, on the energy front they’ll keep doing what they have planned to do, including soon decreasing production, but at acceptable levels.
Standard Chartered, a major player, noted that OPEC has limited power to end the war immediately by reducing the oil price, with OPEC ministers considering this attempt at “strategy” as very inefficient and costly.
So much for imperial diktats.
The Chihuahua Strategic Victory Plan
https://sputnikglobe.com/20250128/pepe-escobar-dancing-to-trumps-disco-inferno-1121513139.html
the U.S. – via fracking – has enough gas for domestic consumption, but not enough to export en masse to the EU, because of liquification problems. That explains why even buying more American energy for exorbitant prices, the EU de facto remains largely dependent on Russian LNG – and non-U.S. sources – since the sabotage of the Nord Streams, unveiled in detail by Sy Hersh.
Even at full capacity, the Empire of Chaos simply cannot deliver all the gas the EU needs; add to it virtually no investment in both badly needed extra exploration plus the infrastructure necessary to meet increased EU demand.
On the domestic U.S. oil market, things do get positively Kafkaesque. U.S. trucking – a massive service industry – is dependent on imported Russian diesel, which needs to be mixed with Made in America oil in order to be suitable for trucks.
Now cut again to Davos, which came and went barely registering a blip. Toxic EC Medusa von der Leyen told Davos that Europe had “substantially reduced”, and “in record time”, its dependency on Russian fossil fuels.
Nonsense. Europe’s energy reality is bleak. Russian LNG from Novatek is currently priced at around $4.5–$4.7 per MMBtu. That’s more expensive than pipeline gas but still much (italics mine) cheaper than American LNG.
Every industry pro from the Persian Gulf to Antwerp knows that Europe is now importing Russian LNG like it never did before. That’s it – or a dry death. In parallel, Russia will triple its LNG supply capacity by 2035. End result: whatever those “energy commissioners” in Brussels may come up with, Russia will remain essential when it comes to European energy security.
There are no limits – even stratospheric – for Eurocracy stupidity, which corrodes the system like a plague. The Europeans not only have managed to shut off their own gas pipelines but are still “investigating” the Nord Stream de facto terror attack.
End result: they are now importing more (italics mine) Russian gas, but by different means, from third-party suppliers, and paying a fortune.
This is what can be described as the Chihuahua Strategic Victory Plan.
U.S. Treasury sanctions Mr. Disco Inferno
Russia’s LNG exports hit a record high last year, growing by 4% – and delivering 33.6 million tons. The monthly record was 3.25 million tons in December 2024 – 13.7% more than November.
The largest Russian exporter is Yamal LNG: 21.1 million tons, 6% more than in 2023.
Now cut to proverbial American rumble, in the form of Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources Geoffrey Pyatt ordering the “full termination” of Russian gas exported to Europe.
To hell with what nations like Hungary, Austria and Slovakia may think – and do need.
Pyatt told the Atlantic Council, “Today we are the largest LNG exporter in the world, and by the end of the Trump administration, we will have doubled what we’re doing today […] The decision has clearly been made in Brussels to get to zero [gas supplies from Russia] by 2027…and the United States strongly supports that goal.”
Oh dear. Do these people even read the basic headlines?
As reported by Politico, the EU is “devouring” Russian gas at unprecedented levels since the start of 2025, importing 837,300 metric tons of LNG just in the first two weeks of the year.
The Ukraine transit deal was shut off for good – at least for now – starting on January 1st. The action now is on the maritime routes.
Enter the U.S. Treasury with a new – what else – sanctions package against Russian oil trade, targeting up to 5.8 million barrels a day shipped by sea.
As it stands, the global oil market is experiencing a surplus of about 0.8 million barrels a day. Oil prices for 2025 should remain at around $71 for a barrel of Brent crude (as it stands, it’s $76.2). Not exactly what Mr. Disco Inferno wants.
So let’s assume these 5.8 million barrels of Russian oil – under stiff sanctions – would vanish from the global market. In this case we would have oil prices skyrocketing to an average of $150 to $160 a barrel. Once again, not what Mr. Disco Inferno wants: he vociferously promised – and keeps promising – a MAGA oil superpower, while lowering oil prices to max $50 a barrel.
According to Russia’s 2025 budget, oil is priced at $65.9 a barrel.
If the U.S. Treasury manages to work its magic and “disappear” with those 5.8 million barrels, Russian revenues would go up to around $88.2 billion, even considering much lower exports.
High oil prices hurt American competitiveness. So somebody should tell Mr. Disco Inferno this U.S. Treasury gambit is actually more negative to Trumpian dreams than to Russia.
Across Eurasia, Russia is sitting pretty, especially with its BRICS partners. Power of Siberia to China is on a roll, and Power of Siberia II should start operating by 2030. A boost on LNG exports to Iran is a done deal – especially after the signing of the strategic partnership earlier this month.
This year a deal will also be signed in Russia to transport LNG to Afghanistan via tanker convoys. Next step will be Pipelineistan: perhaps, finally, the necessary steps to build a variant of TAPI (the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) pipeline, but with gas coming from Russia.
The biggest customer for Russian LNG, apart from China, is of course BRICS partner India. It’s in the interests of Russia, Iran, Afghanistan and India to have a stabilized Pakistan – not an Islamabad remote-controlled by Washington, as in the current setup – for the final opening of Russian LNG routes to India. That will happen, in time.
As for the European chihuahuas, enjoy your “strategic defeat” fantasies. Keep yapping – and buying Russian LNG.
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Sat, 02/01/2025 - 23:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-chihuahua-energy-policy-its-gas-gas-gas
"It's Like A Switch Was Flipped": Border Encounters Plummet 94% Under Trump
"It's Like A Switch Was Flipped": Border Encounters Plummet 94% Under Trump
Since President Donald Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20, illegal alien encounters at the southern US border have plummeted an average of 94% during his first 9 days, compared to President Biden's last 19 days in office.
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During Trump's first 9 days in office, after new border measures were implemented, there were an average of 126 daily encounters at the border vs. 2,087 per day during the last 2.5 weeks of the Biden administration.
As Rasmussen's Mark Mitchell put it last week, "It's like a switch was flipped."
It's like a switch was flipped.
Source: https://twitter.com/zerohedge?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) https://twitter.com/Mark_R_Mitchell/status/1882792646101578093?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
During his 2024 campaign, Trump vowed to crack down on illegal immigration by continuing construction on the border wall, conducting the largest mass deportation in US history, slapping tariffs on Canada and Mexico until they control the situation from their end, and increasing penalties for illegal aliens.
To that end, there were more than 3,500 illegal immigrants who were arrested during Trump's first week in office, including over 1,100 in a https://amgreatness.com/2025/01/28/over-3500-illegal-aliens-arrested-in-trumps-first-week-in-office/
.
As https://amgreatness.com/2025/01/30/daily-illegal-alien-encounters-plummet-by-93-under-trump/
notes further, on Wednesday, shortly before signing the Laken Riley Act into law, the 45th and 47th President announced his intention to send 30,000 of the most dangerous criminal illegals to Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
The Laken Riley Act, named after the 22-year-old Georgia nursing student who was murdered by a Venezuelan illegal, is the first bill signed into law during President Trump’s second term. It gives federal immigration authorities broader power to arrest illegals who commit dangerous crimes, including drunk driving and assaulting police officers.
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Sat, 02/01/2025 - 14:35
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/its-switch-was-flipped-border-encounters-plummet-94-under-trump
Syria's Al-Qaeda Branch Dissolves, Says Goals Completed By Regime Change
Syria's Al-Qaeda Branch Dissolves, Says Goals Completed By Regime Change
The Salafi jihadist group Hurras al-Din, Syria’s official al-Qaeda affiliate, https://www.barrons.com/news/syrian-al-qaeda-affiliate-announces-dissolution-42347033
this week that it was dissolving, saying its goals were complete following the regime change that ousted former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
"[T]he sons of the Al-Qaeda Jihad organization rushed to support the people of the Levant and assist them in removing injustice from them until God permitted this Sunni Muslim people to triumph over one of the most unjust tyrants of the modern era," https://x.com/Mohab_Nasser2/status/1884326004853989411
said in a statement.
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The group said al-Qaeda had ordered it to dissolve. "In light of these developments on the Levantine scene, and by an emir’s decision from the general command of al-Qaeda in the Levant organization, we announce to our Muslim nation and to the Sunnis in the Levant the dissolution of the Guardians of Religion Organization (Hurras al-Din)," the group said.
Hurras al-Din formed in 2018 as an offshoot of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the militant group that led the offensive against Assad and now rules Syria. HTS was previously the official al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria when it was known as the al-Nusra Front, but it rebranded in 2016 to gain international support.
Over the years, there have been tensions between HTS and Hurras al-Din, which were both based in Syria’s northwest Idlib before HTS took Damascus. In 2020, HTS began arresting some senior members of Hurras al-Din. The US had also waged a drone war against Hurras al-Din and https://news.antiwar.com/2024/08/25/us-says-it-killed-senior-member-of-hurras-al-din-in-syria/
Hurras al-Din told its members to https://www.newarab.com/news/al-qaedas-syria-wing-dissolves-following-assad-ouster
and urged Syria’s new leaders to keep Sunni Muslims armed.
"We advise them to keep the weapon in the hands of the Sunnis in the Levant in order for a nation to remain carrying weapons so that no tyrant will enslave it, and no occupier will covet it," the group said.
Hurras al-Din’s fighters may merge with Syria’s new HTS-led military, which has https://news.antiwar.com/2024/12/30/foreign-jihadists-appointed-to-senior-positions-in-new-syrian-military/
. The dissolution announcement came after HTS’s leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, now known by his real name Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, said there would be no armed groups outside of the new HTS-led government’s control.
In the meantime, the Pentagon announced the following development:
JUST IN: U.S. Military Kills Senior Operative of Al-Qaeda Affiliate https://t.co/ToVCla0YYB
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1885120776648409180?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Sharaa, the founder of al-Qaeda in Syria, https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2025/01/29/rebels-declare-ahmad-al-shara-president-of-syria/
despite their al-Qaeda history and the fact that HTS is listed by the US as a terrorist organization.
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Sat, 02/01/2025 - 14:00
Emaciated American-Israeli & Other Hostages Released In Gaza As Truce Progresses
Emaciated American-Israeli & Other Hostages Released In Gaza As Truce Progresses
Three hostages abducted during the October 7, 2023 have been freed by Hamas on Saturday after 484 days in captivity as the ceasefire deal continues to hold and advance.
They were let go in a ceremony in Gaza's Khan Younis, which has become a familiar scene - set up almost like a 'graduation' but with anti-Israeli banners set up behind the stage. They were released to the International Red Cross and then went back to Israel at the Gaza City port. Among the freed was 65-year old American-Israeli dual national Keith Siegel, as well as Ofer Calderon, 54, and Yarden Bibas, 35.
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Various reports and eyewitnesses commented on Siegel's significant weight loss during the lengthy captivity. But all hostages appeared generally in good health, and the handover took place without the chaos of the Thursday freeing of three Israelis and five Thai nationals.
Siegel is the first hostage with American citizenship to have been freed during this current ceasefire. He's been living in Israel for four decades, and is originally from North Carolina. There were half a dozen dual US-Israeli nationals taken on Oct.7, as CBS https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-ceasefire-american-keith-siegel-hostage-3rd-release-gaza/
:
It is believed that at least two of the six American hostages still held in Gaza are alive — Sagui Dekel-Chen, 35, who grew up in Bloomfield, Connecticut, and Edan Alexander, 19, from Tenafly, New Jersey. Four other Americans are believed to have been killed in captivity.
Siegel's wife Aviva was also taken hostage by Hamas militants on Oct. 7, but was released in an earlier hostage and prisoner swap in November 2023.
Speaking to CBS News about a year after her release, https://www.cbsnews.com/video/freed-israeli-hostage-recounts-oct-7-attack-hamas-captivity-in-gaza/
there were moments as Hamas militants forced her and her husband through tunnels under the Gaza Strip that they felt "sure we were going to die."
Strangely, Hamas has been issuing "gift bags" to each freed hostage, apparently containing photographs of the duration of their detention in Gaza.
The Times of Israel describes as https://www.timesofisrael.com/yarden-bibas-keith-siegel-ofer-calderon-freed-by-hamas-after-484-days-held-hostage-in-gaza/
:
Dual US-Israeli national Siegel was handed over at Gaza City’s port, paraded on a stage overlooking the sea as he carried two of the https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-forces-parting-gift-bags-on-freed-hostages-as-mementos-of-hellish-captivity/
forced on the hostages by the terror group. According to the Walla news site, the second bag was for his wife Aviva, freed by Hamas in November 2023.
🇺🇸🇮🇱American citizen Keith Siegel appears frail after being starved during 15 months of captivity.
He is now back safely in Israel. https://t.co/jjw59fOrGN
— Oli London (@OliLondonTV) https://twitter.com/OliLondonTV/status/1885660390308151799?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
This latest, third round of exchanges included 183 Palestinians set free who were held in Israeli prisons. They returned to Gaza Strip and the West bank to scenes of jubilation.
Israel has been trying to prohibit and crackdown on these large Palestinian celebrations. Al Jazeera has meanwhile written that "As Palestinians are released from Israeli prisons as part of the Gaza ceasefire deal, many show signs of severe beatings inflicted before their release, a prisoner rights group says."
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Sat, 02/01/2025 - 13:25
The Net-Zero Gap: Global Green Spending Is Falling Short Of Targets
The Net-Zero Gap: Global Green Spending Is Falling Short Of Targets
Global green energy investment hit a record $2.1 trillion in 2024, up 11% from 2023, but growth has slowed.
To achieve net-zero by 2050, annual investment needs to reach $5.6 trillion, meaning current levels are only 37% of what's required.
While China leads in green spending, investment in the US has stagnated, and it has fallen in the EU and UK.
Global investments in green energy solutions topped $2 trillion last year, for the first time ever, but the world needs to pour in $5.6 trillion each year into low-carbon energy to get on track for global net zero by 2050, in line with the Paris Agreement, BloombergNEF said in a new https://about.bnef.com/blog/global-investment-in-the-energy-transition-exceeded-2-trillion-for-the-first-time-in-2024-according-to-bloombergnef-report/
on Thursday.
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Last year, green energy investments reached a record high globally, but the pace of growth has slowed from the 2021-2023 period, according to BNEF’s report Energy Transition Investment Trends 2025.
The world invested a total of $2.1 trillion in low-carbon energy in 2024, up by 11% compared to 2023, the report found.
However, the pace of growth has slowed. In the years 2021 to 2023, global investment in clean energy jumped by between 24% and 29% each year, according to BNEF.
Electrified transport continued to be the top segment for low-carbon energy investment, drawing in $757 billion in 2024.
China remained the single biggest market with $818 billion of investment, up by 20% from 2023 and increasing investment in all sectors.
China’s total investment last year was greater than the combined investment of the U.S., the EU, and the UK.
However, investment was stagnant in the U.S., at $338 billion, and fell in both the EU and UK, hitting $381 billion and $65.3 billion, respectively, BNEF said.
The research provider also noted that energy transition investment will have to average $5.6 trillion each year from 2025 to 2030, in order to get on track for global net zero by 2050, in line with the Paris Agreement.
The current investment level of $2.1 trillion implies that the world is only at 37% of what is required to get on track, BNEF said.
“There is still much more that needs to be done, especially in emerging areas like industrial decarbonization, hydrogen and carbon capture, in order to reach global net-zero goals,” commented Albert Cheung, Deputy CEO of BNEF.
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Sat, 02/01/2025 - 08:10
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/net-zero-gap-global-green-spending-falling-short-targets
US Transfers 90 Patriot Missiles From Israel To Ukraine In Pivot
US Transfers 90 Patriot Missiles From Israel To Ukraine In Pivot
This week defense officials told Axios that the United States has begun transferring Patriot air defense interceptors from storage in Israel for eventual delivery to Ukraine.
Some 90 Patriot missiles will first be sent from Israel to Poland, after which they'll go to Ukraine as part of stepped-up efforts of Washington to boost Ukraine's air defenses. Russian missiles and drones have been pummeling Ukrainian cities, and especially power and energy infrastructure, on a near daily basis.
The Patriot system has become somewhat irrelevant or outdated in Israel since it was first introduced there some three decades ago. Israel is now reliant on the Iron Dome and its other domestically developed systems.
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The Patriots have instead long been used for training purposes in Israel, with the bulk of the arsenal having been relegated to storage.
Axios notes that "Last April, the Israeli Air Force officially decommissioned the Patriot air defense system, more than 30 years after it was first given to Israel during the first Gulf War."
From there, the prior Biden administration began working on a plan to refurbish the stored missiles and give them to Ukraine.
But Israel was deeply wary at the time of poking or crossing Russia:
For several months, Israel dragged its feet out of concern Russia would retaliate, perhaps by supplying sophisticated weapons to Iran.
A Ukrainian official tells Axios Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu refused to take his calls on that issue for weeks.
But in late September, Netanyahu finally approved the idea, an Israeli official says.
Israel will no doubt be much more cooperative with the US on Ukraine in the wake of December 8. That's when longtime leader Bashar al-Assad fled Syria, and with the end of his rule Iranian forces have pulled out of the country.
Additionally, Russia is busy packing up its two military bases on the Syrian coast. The bases' ultimate status is anything but clear at this point, but much heavy equipment has been set up at a Libyan port.
While Assad was in power, and Russian presence inside Syria was significant, Israel had to maintain a delicate balance in its relations with Moscow and Washington. Throughout nearly three years of the Ukraine war, Israel has rebuffed calls from Kiev to send weaponry.
Ukraine has tried to argue that the presence of Iranian drones used by Russian forces is a threat which Israel can help counter. It's looking like Israel may begin boosting some level of support to the Zelensky government in coordination with the US, also as the truce in Gaza is holding.
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Sat, 02/01/2025 - 07:35
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-transfers-90-patriot-missiles-israel-ukraine-pivot
France Won't Fight The US Over Greenland
France Won't Fight The US Over Greenland
https://korybko.substack.com/p/france-wont-fight-the-us-over-greenland
It’s not going to risk breaking up NATO, let alone over a war that it’ll certainly lose, no matter how tough its Foreign Minister is trying to sound as part of a ploy to present France as the EU’s leader.
quoted French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot as saying that his country had discussed the possible deployment of troops to Greenland with Denmark in order to protect it from Trump’s claims, but Copenhagen didn’t want to move forward with Paris’ proposal. He then shrugged off the scenario of the US invading to make it seem like the aforementioned disclosure and its outcome were no big deal. It therefore appeared as though he only wanted to emphasize that France will protect the EU’s borders.
The reality though is that France won’t fight the US over Greenland if it came to that.
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First, it would destroy NATO’s unity, which could lead to the second consequence of the US pulling out of the bloc and leaving the Europeans on their own to face Russia.
Third, France would certainly lose, so the fourth point is that there’s no reason risking all this for Denmark’s sake. And finally, Greenlanders might ultimately vote for independence, thus making France’s intervention a neocolonial war with the US.
As was assessed in late December, “https://thealtworld.com/andrew_korybko/the-panama-canal-greenland-are-trumps-for-the-taking-if-he-really-wants-them
”, but it remains to be seen if he’s willing to use military force to that end or if his claims to both are just a negotiating tactic to respectively expel Chinese influence and keep it at bay. There’s also the possibility that he wants to turn them into protectorates, whether formally or otherwise, with unclear privileges for American citizens, companies, and/or the military.
In any case, these are important enough imperatives for the US to seriously consider the use of force if necessary depending on how negotiations over each might go, which stands in stark contrast to France’s interest in Greenland. France only wanted to reaffirm the importance of protecting the EU’s borders and present itself as the bloc’s leader amidst its traditional rival with Germany in this regard. It lacks the political will to actually make good on this pledge against the US if ever requested by Denmark to do so.
What this entire episode illustrates though is that Trump’s claim to Greenland has prompted panic among the Europeans.
They never expected anything of the sort to happen and are now at a loss for how to respond in the event that he applies more pressure upon Denmark. No matter how highly some European countries like France still think of themselves, the fact of the matter is that they’re still the US’ junior partners and even outright vassals in most cases. They depend more on the US than the inverse.
For that reason, it’s highly unlikely that any European troops in Greenland would do anything more than fire into the air in the event that Trump authorizes the military to seize that island, since using lethal force against American troops would spark an unprecedented intra-NATO crisis. The power dynamics between them are such that the European members of the bloc have become convinced that they need the US to protect it against Russia and therefore won’t risk being abandoned by the US over Greenland.
It also shouldn’t be forgotten that France never ended up conventionally intervening in Ukraine last year despite https://thealtworld.com/andrew_korybko/natos-debate-over-whether-to-conventionally-intervene-in-ukraine-shows-its-desperation
. That’s because it couldn’t secure Article 5 guarantees from the US. Since France obeyed the much weaker Biden Administration and showed that it wasn’t really as gung-ho about fighting Russia as it made it seem, it’ll predictably obey the much stronger Trump Administration and not dare to militarily challenge it over Greenland, which is much less significant for the EU than Ukraine is.
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Sat, 02/01/2025 - 07:00
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/france-wont-fight-us-over-greenland
Escobar: Dancing To Trump's Disco Inferno
Escobar: Dancing To Trump's Disco Inferno
Authored by Pepe Escobar,
In the late 1970s Donald Trump, in his early thirties, cocky as ever and recently married to Ivana in 1977, could be seen on and off hitting the electric New York City night life especially at glamour/hard partying disco dive Studio 54.
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A certified dancefloor killer at Studio 54 was https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWqcgPmCbDQ
, mixed by dance wizard Tom Moulton, released in 1976, two years before perennial Trump favorite YMCA – now resuscitated to global furor as the soundtrack to Trump 2.0 dance moves.
For all practical purposes, Trump is now the DJ turning the whole planet into a Disco Inferno (“folks are screaming, out of control”), as everything is “so entertaining when the boogie started to explode”. And the Trump “boogie” serially exploding is no less than the non-stop amplified sound of theater, bombast and uncontrolled chaos.
The spectacle of Trump’s sound and fury - a torrent of executive orders, photo ops, carefully scripted illusionist tricks, breathless headlines - signifying…something veils the same old imperial mindset, now blasting out in the open as a weaponized three-ring circus. Stagecraft invariably trumps substance as every smirk and scowl is media-weaponized to the enthralled, bloodthirsty arena spectators.
Mr. Disco Inferno won a mini-trade war with Colombia in only 10 hours, after posting an image depicting himself as an Al Capone-style Mafia boss in pinstripe suit and fedora hat, standing next to a sign that reads “FAFO”, which means “F**k Around and Find Out”.
He will win the proxy war in Ukraine. In 24 hours. Sorry, in 100 days. Sorry, maybe more. And “if they don't settle this war soon, like almost immediately, I'm going to put massive tariffs on Russia and massive taxes and also big sanctions.” Why? Because, "you know, I love the Russian people.”
He brags that the United States “has the largest amount of oil and gas” (it does not) and is going to use it; he will “ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down oil prices” (they will say no); because if “the oil price came down, the war in Ukraine would end immediately” (this is definitely not a “cause and effect” case).
He will make “the largest tax cuts in US history.” The US can ensure LNG supplies to Europe (of course, at a huge mark-up); the US “does not need Canada to make cars, as well as Canadian oil and gas”;the United States’ “massive oil and gas reserves” will allow it to “become a manufacturing superpower and the world capital of AI and cryptocurrencies”.
Buried in the sound and fury is the fact that the US can count on a steady stream of gas for domestic needs but that turns problematic when it comes to exports. Hence the expropriation obsession – as in outright Empire of Plunder: the US badly needs Iraqi, Syrian, Venezuelan, Mexican, Iranian and Russian reserves. Because even if carefully exported, there is insufficient liquification facilities in the US to supply the EU. And that’s why Europe remains largely dependent on Russian LNG and other sources since the sabotage of the Nordstreams.
Satisfaction…came in a chain reaction
Yes: there is incoming blood on the dancefloor.
To get into the real groove of Disco Inferno, we might as well focus on the top three challenges for Trump 2.0:
the tech war against China;
the geoeconomics war against the Global Majority;
and the proxy war in Ukraine.
The irruption of Hangzhou-based Chinese tech start-up DeepSeek on the global stage was something for the ages, instantly decimating the spun-to-death “https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3277319/no-winners-us-small-yard-high-fence-approach-china-economist?module=inline&pgtype=article
” American strategy to smash China’s tech advances.
DeepSeek should indeed be seen as the https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-trends/article/3293050/meet-deepseek-chinese-start-changing-how-ai-models-are-trained?module=inline&pgtype=article
in the open-source Large Language Model (LLM) domain, now identified from Jakarta to Wall Street and Silicon Valley as potentially Beijing’s secret weapon in the AI war with the US. Even Mr. Disco Inferno was forced to admit DeepSeek’s breakthrough as a “wake-up call”.
At the heart of the matter we find two clashing models: neoliberal hypercapitalism versus meritocratic socialism.
The head of DeepSeek, Liang Wenfeng, is a fascinating geek. His given name (Wenfeng) means “Vanguard of Culture”; one of the meanings of his family name (Liang) is “bridge”. So he may be seen – as he is in China – as Mr. Bridge to the Vanguard of Culture (here’s Mr. Bridge in an https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r9zZaEgqAa_lml_fOEZmjg
, in Chinese; please use auto-translate).
Mr. Bridge pulled a spectacular Sun Tzu on US sanctions over exporting advanced graphic processing units (GPUs), especially Nvidia’s advanced chips. Moreover, Chinese Big Tech firms cannot compete with the financial firepower of US Big Tech.
So the answer was to develop cost-efficient powerful LLM models, without access to literally hundreds of thousands of Nvidia H100s chips. DeepSeek stated they had used just 2,048 Nvidia H800s and only $5.6million to train a model with 671 billion (italics mine) parameters: that’s a very small fraction of what OpenAI and Google spent to train models of the same size.
And everything was developed locally, via scores of PHDs from the top Chinese universities - Peking, Tsinghua, Beihang – and not American Ivy League experts.
So in a nutshell DeepSeek is a 100% Chinese LLM companywhich was capable to come up with open-source models and a free downloadable app for every consumer to use. That in itself destroys the current American-imposed neoliberal hypercapitalist AI business model.
The rules of the game indeed are being rewritten. So what is the – predictable - American response? https://m.guancha.cn/internation/2025_01_28_763504.shtml
. In parallel, DeepSeek was forced to suspend new registrations because its site suffered a massive cyberattack. Talk about the price to pay for eviscerating a humongous $1 trillion off the techno-feudalists gathered at the New York Stock Exchange.
Mr. Disco Inferno of course supports the commodifying of all data compared to free data for everyone. Right before the DeepSeek shock, he had - theoretically - secured as much as $1 trillion from the Saudis, including to a large extent investments to develop AI and data centers in the US.
The new game of course is just beginning. Stargate, OpenAI’s joint venture with Japan’s SoftBank, also heavily plugged by Trump, plans to spend at least $100 billion on AI infrastructure in the US. In parallel, Elon Musk’s xAI is massively expanding the Colossus supercomputer to contain more than 1million GPUs to help train its Grok AI models.
I couldn't get enough, so I had to self-destruct
Now to the war against the Global Majority. Inestimable Prof. Michael Hudson is adamant: in an absolutely https://globalsouth.co/2025/01/24/trumps-balance-of-payments-war-on-mexico-and-the-whole-world/
he concisely explains that “when Trump promised his voters that the United States must be the ‘winner’ in any international trade or financial agreement, he is declaring economic war on the rest of the world.”
The key Hudson take away: If nations in the Global South are to save their economy “from being plunged into austerity, price inflation, unemployment and social chaos”, they will have to “suspend payments on foreign debts denominated in dollars.”
It’s a work in progress: “Circumstances…are forcing the world to break away from the US-centered financial order. The US dollar’s exchange rate is going to soar in the short term as a result of Trump blocking imports with tariffs and trade sanctions. This exchange-rate shift will squeeze foreign countries owing dollar debts in the same way that Mexico and Canada are to be squeezed. To protect themselves, they must suspend dollar debt service.”
There may be serious problems ahead for Mr. Disco Inferno: “Trump’s America First political theater that got him elected may get his gang unseated as the contradictions and consequences of their operating philosophy are recognized and replaced. His tariff policy will accelerate US price inflation and, even more fatally, cause chaos in US and foreign financial markets. Supply chains will be disrupted, interrupting US exports of everything from aircraft to information technology. And other countries will find themselves obliged to make their economies no longer dependent on US exports or dollar credit.”
Prof. Hudson notes how Trump “thinks that the US economy is like a cosmic black hole, that is, a center of gravity able to pull all the world’s money and economic surplus to itself. That is the explicit aim of America First. That is what makes Trump’s program a declaration of economic war on the rest of the world. There is no longer a promise that the economic order sponsored by US diplomacy will make other countries prosperous. The gains from trade and foreign investment are to be sent to and concentrated in America.”
The EU, in the Global North, is even more vulnerable to “America First”. Davos came and went with a mere blip on the screen, apart from the odd US banker bragging about “peak pessimism” in Europe – linked to the incoming Trump tariff tsunami – and head of the European Central Bank Christine “Look at my new Hermes scarf” Lagarde wondering it was “not pessimistic” to say that Europe is facing an “existential crisis”.
The US-EU trade balance stands at a hefty 1.5 trillion euros a year, including massive Atlanticist investment flows. But what really matters is the financial mess in individual EU nations, especially top two Germany and France, with their Via Dolorosa to be extended ad infinitum when it comes to their cost of borrowing driven by tax cuts in the US.
I heard somebody say (Burning Burning) burn that mother down
And now to the Forever Wars front.
Mr. Disco Inferno, posing as a humanitarian for the non-stop camera clicking, has asked vassals Jordan and Egypt to de facto become accomplices in ethnic cleansing, absorbing as many as 1.5 million people from Gaza. Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention explicitly “prohibits the forced transfer of protected people out of or into occupied territory”.
https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/01/22/the-age-of-interplanetary-exceptionalism/
in a “phenomenal location” will proceed in parallel with energetically courting the Saudis, after MbS in Riyadh promised last week to invest at least $600 billion – and up to a possible $1 trillion – in the US.
The official Saudi position is on the necessity of “strategic investments” to “stabilize long-term revenue streams” – not to mention consolidate lavish spending on all those US-made weapons systems. Call it a classic geopolitical case of Power of Capital merging with The Strategy of Chaos.
Telling Riyadh how to dance is one thing. To entice the Russian bear to the dancefloor is a completely different proposition.
As star French historian Emmanuel Todd https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ViwLhYOrfaU
, “Trump’s job will be to manage the defeat of the US against Russia.” That’s the toughest call ever. Trump’s supreme anathema is to be seen as a loser.
So there are only two feasible options.
1. To “end the war” by not really ending it, just postponing it to the end of the decade, stealing a de facto Russian victory via massive spin and a gargantuan P.R. campaign.
2. Keep weaponizing Kiev – especially via NATO vassals, while posing as a peacemaker who cannot deliver because of Russia. That will be a toxic variant of the current “war until the last Ukrainian”.
That kind of gimmickry won’t fly in Moscow. Putin and the Security Council have made it extensively clear the conditions for a real end to the war – not a pause for NATO rearmament.
The authentic-or-not 100-day plan for a possible deal that has been circulating in the Washington-London-Kiev echo chambers touches on a few probabilities: a Putin-Trump phone call in the next two weeks or so; a possible meeting, bilateral (Trump-Putin) or trilateral (with the Ukrainian actor; quite unlikely) until mid-March; start of negotiations on the main parameters; a possible ceasefire by Easter; an International Peace Conference by the end of April, mediated by US, China, some EU members and some from the Global South; presidential elections in Ukraine at the end of August.
Key parameters: Ukraine as a neutral state, and not a member of NATO; member of the EU by 2030; Ukraine does not reduce the size of the army; does not officially recognize Russian sovereignty over conquered territories; “some” sanctions against Russia lifted immediately after the conclusion of the peace agreement, some - over the course of three years - depending on Russia's compliance; all restrictions on the import of Russian energy to the EU to be lifted; and last but not least, the thorny matter of a “European peacekeeping contingent”.
The CIA is feeding all sorts of misinformation to Trump on everything from the real state of things in the battlefield to the state of the Russian economy. As it stands, Russians watch all the bombast with barely a smirk. Peskov: “Moscow still hasn’t received word from Washington about possible Trump, Putin contact… Readiness for meeting remains.”
So far, nothing. Totally empty game playing. Perhaps Trump, in secrecy, may be practicing his master shot: “The heat was on, rising to the top / Everybody going strong, and that is when my spark got hot”.
Time to hit the dancefloor.
(Just can't stop) when my spark gets hot(Just can't stop) when my spark gets hot(Just can't stop) when my spark gets hot(Just can't stop) when my spark gets hot
Well, it may turn out that the really hot spark will be detonated not by Mr. Disco Inferno, but by dance partner Vladimir Putin.
* * *
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Fri, 01/31/2025 - 23:25
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-dancing-trumps-disco-inferno
Prediction Consensus: What The Experts See Coming In 2025
Prediction Consensus: What The Experts See Coming In 2025
As we look ahead to 2025, there is no shortage of expert forecasts and predictions for what will happen to the world’s economy, markets, geopolitics, and technology in 2025.
In this now sixth year of https://www.visualcapitalist.com/prediction-consensus-what-the-experts-see-coming-in-2025/
the most common predictions and forecasts by experts into a single visual of what they expect to happen in 2025.
Drawing from our predictions database of over 800 forecasts compiled from reports, interviews, podcasts, and more, the Prediction Consensus “bingo card” and this article offer an overview of the most cited trends and opportunities that experts are watching for the rest of the year.
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Geopolitical Predictions for 2025
Increased geopolitical uncertainty and volatility is top of mind for many forecasters heading into 2025, as global trade dynamics restructure around tariffs and potential counter-tariffs.
For many forecasters, President Donald Trump’s return to office is anticipated to escalate U.S.-China tensions, potentially triggering increased economic competition, protectionist policies, and global fragmentation.
“For now, America’s rivalry with China will manifest itself as a trade war, as Mr Trump imposes restrictions and ramps up tariffs—including on America’s allies”
– Tom Standage, The Economist
The geopolitical landscape is likely to become more volatile as both nations navigate a complex and increasingly adversarial relationship, with the U.S. intensifying its protectionist stance under Trump while China looks to strengthening its BRICS partnerships.
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Amid U.S.-China tensions, experts expect the geopolitical landscape to remain fraught as Sudan endures one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, marked by famine and mass displacement with limited aid while Syria faces a precarious transition following the fall of Bashar al-Assad.
However, some conflicts are predicted to wrap up this year, with a number of experts optimistic that 2025 could mark the end of the Russia-Ukraine war as it nears its third anniversary. Another significant conflict saw a breakthrough as Israel and Hamas reached a Gaza ceasefire in January 2025, offering a brief respite after 15 months of hostilities.
Along with these ongoing geopolitical issues, several major elections are on the horizon for 2025, including Canada, Germany, Belarus, the Philippines, and Australia.
Economy and Markets Forecasts for 2025
Based on the hundreds of economic forecasts and predictions we’ve sifted through, many analysts and experts share matching views on what’s ahead for inflation, interest rates, and economic growth in 2025.
Global inflation forecasts for 2025: Inflation is expected to continue easing in 2025 across many economies, with global inflation expected to drop from 5.8% in 2024 to 4.3% in 2025. However, some experts predict tariffs could drive acute inflation as firms pass additional costs onto consumers.
Interest rate forecasts for 2025: Further interest rate cuts are projected for the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank in 2025, while the Bank of Japan was expected to bump rates by 25 bps this year, and has already https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/boj-likely-raise-rates-highest-17-years-signal-more-hikes-2025-01-23/
with their rate hike to 0.50%–a level not seen since the 2008 global financial crisis.
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Global markets forecasts for 2025: Forecasters are quite bullish on the markets, with https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp-500-annual-returns-since-1874/
and an expected broadening of returns beyond the Magnificent 7 expected for 2025. Consensus expectations see U.S. equities leading earnings while Europe rebounds and Asia softens.
Gold prices are expected to continue to surge this year, with experts positioning it as both an effective hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties and a general portfolio diversifier. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency are also expected to see growth as the Trump administration advances pro-crypto policies and global economies develop more structured regulatory frameworks for digital assets.
Global real GDP growth forecasts for 2025: The outlook for global growth continues to be fairly stable heading into 2025. Global GDP growth forecasts range from 2.7% to 3.2%, squarely in the range of IMF’s 10-year average (2015-2024) of 3.1%.
“With some shocks set to ease, such as Russia-Ukraine, along with a bonfire of regulations and tax cuts in the U.S. economy, the global economy is likely to perform better than last year.”
– Mo Tanweer, academic associate Pembroke College, University of Cambridge and consultant to Inigo Insurance
The U.S. and China are both expected to experience slower growth in 2025, with the IMF projecting U.S. GDP growth at 2.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from 2024, and China’s at 4.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from last year.
Technology and AI Predictions for 2025
Advancements in artificial intelligence innovation and infrastructure show no sign of slowing down in 2025.
Just this January, President Trump announced the https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/
, a $500 billion AI infrastructure venture led by OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle, and MGX, aimed at building data centers across the United States to secure American leadership in AI technology, with an initial $100 billion deployment starting in Texas.
Significant strides in AI are in the works this year, including agentic AI systems and artificial general intelligence (AGI) which OpenAI CEO https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2025/01/06/openai-ceo-sam-altman-we-know-how-to-build-agi/
have all stated are well-within possibility in the near future, possibly this year.
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However, as companies scale up their AI operations, both capital expenditures and energy costs are projected to rise, highlighting the need for improvements in energy efficiency and renewable sources in shaping AI’s future and https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/projecting-the-electricity-demand-growth-of-generative-ai-large-language-models-in-the-us/
.
Robotics and autonomous driving technology are also expected to continue to advance as AI systems become more sophisticated, with experts forecasting autonomous driving to become “safe and reliable” by 2025 and relatively mainstream across major cities in the United States.
2025 Forecasts: The Year of Recalibration
As we head into 2025, notable shifts are taking shape across geopolitical, economic, and technological landscapes. The year stands out as a pivotal moment of global recalibration—where established systems are being challenged, reimagined, and restructured.
Trump’s return to the White House is expected to dramatically reshape U.S. foreign and economic policy, with a particular focus on trade measures and protectionist strategies.
His administration’s approach is likely to test international relationships, potentially accelerating economic competition and global fragmentation while simultaneously pursuing domestic market stimulation and supportive policies for emerging technologies like AI and digital assets.
However, as a whole the world is carefully rebalancing economically. Inflation is gradually cooling, markets show optimism, and central banks are strategically adjusting interest rates. The global economic engine is humming at a steady, if not spectacular, pace, with GDP growth remaining stable despite slowing projections for major economies like the U.S. and China.
Perhaps most notably, technology—and particularly artificial intelligence—emerges as a transformative and disruptive force. Massive investments in AI infrastructure and predictions about artificial general intelligence signal a technological watershed, but are also being challenged by efficiency and cost innovations made apparent by China’s open source https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/27/nvidia-calls-chinas-deepseek-r1-model-an-excellent-ai-advancement.html
.
From geopolitical tensions to technological innovations, the year promises to be a period of strategic adaptation, where countries, markets, and technologies reassess and realign themselves to address the complex challenges of our interconnected world.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Fri, 01/31/2025 - 23:00
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/prediction-consensus-what-experts-see-coming-2025
The Biodefense Oligarchy And Its Demographic Defeats
The Biodefense Oligarchy And Its Demographic Defeats
https://brownstone.org/articles/the-biodefense-oligarchy-and-its-demographic-defeats/
,
Some years back, in calmer times before the storm, we officers at sea held the wardroom mess in accordance with that classic naval tradition. It was modernized and conducted over secure video, so those of us in the Med studied with those in the Gulf and those in the BAM,1 but it was all the same. Our study was Thucydides.
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The Peloponnesian War is too large for a deployment’s worth of weekly studies to cover, so after each session, I filled my evening with further reading. As the Oak Hill2 passed Sicily, I was drawn to the history of the Sicilian Expedition. History is studied to draw lessons for present times. Athens’ lessons are abundant for ours.
In the midst of the 30-year Peloponnesian War, factions of Athens deemed an invasion of Sicily critical to overall victory. Inherent to their argument was the reality that Sicily would be impossibly lucrative if victorious. So it was then, so it is now: potential profit often clouds sound judgment.
The opposition lost and the attack proceeded. It took the entire fleet and all its citizen manpower and it was entirely defeated. During the multi-year effort, the factions that drove it fused into an oligarchy that perpetuated itself and its war until its incompetence and complete defeat undermined its despotism. It still took the Demos physically overthrowing the Oligarchy for democracy to be restored in Athens.3
Athens could rebuild the ships. But it could not rebuild the men. Thirty thousand citizen sailors were lost in the expedition – the heart of Athens’ civilizational power. The demographic catastrophe is considered a cause of Athens’ eventual defeat in the war and its civilizational decline.4
Two decades ago, factions argued that biowarfare threats were so significant that biodefense responsibility needed to be removed from the purview of the uniformed military and placed within NIAID under NIH and under HHS. There were structural and efficiency reasons to do this but the intangible reason was that the uniformed military officer corps would not stain its honor with biowarfare. It had held the line with the bioweapons convention since Nixon axed the US bioweapons program, so it had to be removed from the picture for the factions to proceed.
This action, called BioShield, fused the pharmaceutical industry with biodefense and fused the public health agencies with the intelligence community. The two entities in America not held accountable by law or practice, the vaccine industry and the intelligence community (IC), were joined into one. Though done to achieve a positive aim, it is obvious in hindsight that this fusion would create unaccountable oligarchy. Its most apparent manifestation is the director of NIAID’s salary, the highest in government and higher than the president’s, with corresponding tangible worldwide political power. This power structure was known previously to insiders5 but only became visible to the public during the Covid response. It also goes without saying that merging medicine with biodefense under the pretext of foreign biothreats is impossibly lucrative. So it was then, so it is now: potential profit often clouds sound judgment.
The biodefense oligarchy spread its tentacles across government and industry. There is pie to be had and it is lucrative. Adversaries make advances in biotechnology so funds must keep coming and riskier and riskier research must be done to supposedly stay ahead of those adversaries, especially if it proves true that the DOD and NIH traded advanced technology to those adversaries so the IC could gain access and spy on their laboratories.6Now with more advanced technology, the IC must do more spying on those adversaries and NIAID more research. The biodefense oligarchy is a reinforcing feedback loop. It perpetuates its reason to exist.
There does not appear to be a valid evaluation as to whether the biothreat rates such an apparatus in the context of the overarching threat picture the United States faces. It is unclear if the warriors, the combat armsmen, and the unrestricted line officers are involved in the assessment since they ceased to be involved years ago in an act of false piety (to which the origin of the Covid fiasco can be traced). And the director of NIAID will just turn off funding to the universities in the Congressman’s district when the Congressman raises opposition to the arrangement if the universities in his district have not already complained, for the oligarchy’s funds are substantial. The biodefense grantee taps DOD and NIAID for biodefense funds.
That’s two pots. Because of “the threats,” they can tap IC funds. Three pots. With the Global War On Terror creation of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the delegation of defense functions to DHS, including biodefense, there’s a fourth pot. There are actually even more pots, as the DEFUSE proposal shows, to the consternation of federal agents trying to piece the web together.7 There is pie to be had and it is lucrative.
As with the Athenians’ Sicilian Expedition, the biodefense oligarchy became stronger as it accrued failures. The predominant failure is the creation and release of SARS-CoV-2 and the consequent response. Biodefense acolytes called Covid a war and treated it as so, forcing the nation into a war footing. War demands resources and faltering war campaigns demand more resources to keep them afloat. Resourcing demands organization – consolidation – and consolidation equates to more power.
All governments accrue more powers in wartime. Jacob Siegel, a 9/11-generation veteran like me, wrote a fantastic Tablet essay8 on the disinformation complex which addressed the fusion of the biodefense apparatus with the GWOT-Patriot Act apparatus during the Covid event (I have near verbatim unpublished essays that say the same, and my peers and I discuss this repeatedly, so it is equally fascinating that our generation sees this so clearly).
Essentially, Americans were subjected to a counterterror-insurgency strategy implemented against them by the administrative state in response to the virus. This architecture was for war overseas but was implemented against the American people. With too many interests involved, the expanding apparatus could not be stopped, even by the party in power (which is the nature of oligarchy). As occurred overseas, counterinsurgency failed and in failure imposed despotism and broke the social compact of the country. Alas, the biodefense oligarchy only accumulated more power.
War added a final element to the oligarchy. SARS-CoV-2 occurred amidst a predicted class conflict9 between the credentialed class and everyone else (laptop class, expert class, essential v. nonessential, etc.).10 The landscape of politics had arranged in recent years to where the dominant credentialed caste aligned with the Democrats. This class and party alignment postured this faction to align with the biodefense oligarchy when the Covid “war” started, which is what happened. So biodefense + public health + vaccine industry + intelligence community + social class + political party + “war” = American Oligarchy.11
In such a landscape, the Demos emerged in opposition, another parallel to Athens. The Demos is the opposition party plus the rebellion. In counterinsurgency, the goal is to protect the people from the insurgent. In the Covid war, the “war” against the insurgent virus involved the biodefense oligarchy imposing war on the American people to “keep safe” [from the insurgent]. Since the people are oppressed in counterinsurgency, many rebel. The rebellion expands as the authorities’ ineptitude against the actual threat becomes too obvious for mass propaganda to conceal. The ineptitude also weakens and fractures the oligarchy. During the coup against Biden in July, a Harris staffer quipped that Biden was the oligarchy that needed to go away. Oligarchy complained to oligarchy that it was an oligarchy.12 This turned out to be a signal of the oligarchy’s pending implosion. Absent war, the oligarchy’s factions could no longer hold.
Present politics mirror the Athenian conflict between the Oligarchy and Demos, with November’s electoral victory another parallel to the Demos’ ultimate victory. How ultimate this Demos’ victory will be will play out in time. For, like Athenian history, America’s story will pivot on our version of the failed Sicilian Expedition.
America’s Sicilian Expedition is the creation and response to SARS-CoV-2. It is the compounding of errors from the Biodefense Oligarchy that culminates in our equivalent to Athens’ loss of its 30,000.
First is the death toll from SARS-CoV-2 itself. SARS-CoV-2, a synthetic virus or a reverse genetics system or a synthetic self-spreading vaccine – a living thing created in man’s hubris in “defense” against potential natural or man-made pathogens – harmed and killed many people.13This number is clouded by the Lockdown and treatment debacle. This number will remain disputed until the actual origin and nature of SARS-CoV-2 is known – what it is down to the amino acid level – and the statisticians and systems dynamicists rework the calculations. These losses were painful, but they were predominantly the old. The creation of and losses to SARS-CoV-2 itself equate to the initiation of the Sicilian Expedition. These losses are not equivalent to the loss of the fleet and its 30,000 citizen-warriors.
The losses from the vaccines are. These losses came well after the start of the war, at a time when the purpose and value of the war and the perpetuation of it could be re-evaluated. Moreover, these losses are in the young. These losses are concealed by the oligarchy but visible: the athlete who drops on the field, the runner who clutches his heart and face-plants on the street corner, the hyper-fit lieutenant who lies dead on the side of the road, the major collapsed during the fitness test with his peers pinning his violently stroking body to stop him choking on his tongue, the captain who collapses dead in his home before his wife and children, the veteran who wakes suddenly in the night, clutches his wife, screams, and dies instantly of pulmonary embolism, the little girl playing erratically with the neighborhood kids, the mothers over dinner watch weeping that she is not the same girl since the heart medicine.
The oligarchy was forced by reality to acknowledge that the shots cause cardiac injuries. The data accumulates for autoimmune conditions, menstrual irregularities, miscarriages, cancer, and numerous other ailments – vertigo, tinnitus, hypertension, colitis, Bell’s palsy, full-body rash, Guillain-Barre, and of course the clots and the clots and the clots. Like most Americans, my wife and I have dozens of family and friends with these injuries. Some estimate the country is losing a Vietnam’s worth of men every year since the shots were introduced.14 Twenty-four percent reported knowing someone killed by the shots.15 What is the compound interest on this loss rate? I can name eighteen wounded or dead veterans. My battalion’s casualties from two Afghan War deployments were half that.
Few take the shots anymore because they know. Governments and even the media now acknowledge that there are excess deaths. But, unlike the Athenians, the number is not known because the authorities refuse to do the math. The number is visible though. For instance, the Navy cannot man its ships.16 America already cannot man its fleet. There are other factors that contribute, but every organization is short people and every organization knows it is short people, for everyone in the organizations complains about it. The manpower shortage is not just a recruitment issue. The nation does not know if it is already Athens, and it should.
The physical manpower injury is compounded by moral injury. The healthy veteran gets sudden cancer, is near dead a month later, but miraculously and thankfully survives. He is left in a daze with no cause. The wounded themselves cannot even discuss the possible cause of their injuries less the acolytes of the oligarchy shame them, which perpetuates the moral injury. Another gets clots. Repeatedly now, the same time every year, as if the mRNA made his cells permanently produce spike protein at a consistent rate in a consistent location to eventually mass and annually clot. Naturally, his wife is concerned that one of these years the just-in-time blood thinners will not work and the injury will take him.
They live with moral injury and with no redress. Can he charge his chain of command with murder ahead of his death? Naturally, away from the acolytes, the injured discuss their physical and their moral injuries, usually with the unvaxxed, most of whom were forced out, adding to the manpower shortage. There it is spoken: Their sons will not serve. The manpower loss is compounding and multi-generational.
The magnitude of this loss is great. In itself, it demands resolution. But the situation is actually far worse than the visible injury of our people. The risks and harms from the gene-encoded (mRNA) vaccine technology are direct from either the biotechnology itself or the use of the spike protein as the epitope. More significantly, indirect risks exist as well and at greater scale. Any single-epitope vaccine can cause the body to only generate immunity against that epitope and make a person vulnerable to the illness when the virus adapts that epitope (i.e. Antibody Dependent Enhancement). But the vaccinated also suffer from IgG4 antibody class switching.17 In this situation, the body adapts to the vaccine by treating the epitope as an allergen. This makes the person even more vulnerable, for the body ignores the virus when infected. That individual now risks becoming even sicker.
Recall that the US funded risky research with intent to gain insight into what the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was doing with coronaviruses.18 There was a focus on spike proteins for legitimate purposes because work was being done worldwide on enhancing spike proteins to study (“study?”) them, and also because the PRC has published research intent to weaponize coronaviruses because of the spike proteins.19 It is known amongst investigators that the IC leveraged the nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance for Type II Diplomacy access into the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) to learn what its scientists were doing with epitopes like spike proteins. There is nothing inherently wrong with this; it is the IC’s job to spy. But the IgG4 matter shows that large numbers of Americans are now indefinitely vulnerable to a spike protein that emerged out of Wuhan. The biodefense oligarchy made the population vulnerable to the very thing the biodefense apparatus was operating in Wuhan to ostensibly protect us from.
The existence of this vulnerability is now replicated in numerous research studies. The severity in scale and duration of this vulnerability is unknown, but it should be known.
Aside from the strategic failure this matter is, the indirect casualties of a flawed response – specifically, the lack of detailed risk analysis to the individual and to the population of a mass vaccination course of action (with additional risk from the unready mRNA technology and the spike protein epitope) – compound the direct injuries and losses and contribute to the overarching demographic damage suffered from America’s version of the Sicilian Expedition.
Sicily Redux.
This is the reason the origin of SARS2 must be known. Not for retribution or reconciliation, not to prevent a man-made pandemic from occurring again. These are valid, but are not the reason. It must be known to accurately assess the demographic damage from the response, to know the near and long-term effects, to know the myocardial state of the nation’s fighting-aged men, and to know the cruel annual compound interest in deaths the mRNA decision will bring, to know the citizenry’s vulnerability to the [PRC]20 spike protein, to know the duration of our civilization’s vulnerability.
To those who argue that it would be too costly for America to acknowledge its role in creating SARS-CoV-2, or that America cannot afford for its enemies to know how bad the vaccine injuries in the military are – arguments I heard repeatedly in these years as a whistleblower – the potential magnitude of the screwup, Sicily Redux, our equivalent to Athens’ loss of 30,000, both the physical and moral injury, far surpasses the financial and reputational costs to admitting the truth. The failures will only exacerbate as the new administration declassifies intelligence, for the cardiac and IgG4 risks of using the spike protein as the mRNA epitope could have been extrapolated from the suppressed Department of Energy assessment had the cover-up not fouled informed risk analysis.21
Whether America’s version of the Sicilian Expedition will have the same result as the Athenians’ remains to be seen. The parallels inform how our maritime democracy navigates its way forward. The primary lesson is that which every quality sports team and mature military formation understands: lie to yourself about yourself and you will be weak; know yourself – know your weaknesses – and you will be stronger. Or unperiled in a hundred battles, as a Chinese military philosopher once said.
This young man asks that a mature republic do the same. Far too many amongst us feel the losses but lie to themselves about their nature. This is yet another moral burden stacked onto the others. The situation is not healthy for the individual, or the nation.
As the burden is felt, so is the newfound energy in the land. The Demos is in rebound. It dismantles illicit oligarchy. It returns accountability and vigor to the state. Let it not be spoiled by discounting the physical loss of an errant expedition. Let it not be further spoiled by ignoring the moral injury accrued from that failure. A great republic learns from the past.
References
BAM – Bab el Mandeb Strait. Colloquialism used by Marines and sailors.
LSD-51 USS OAK HILL
The Oligarchy of 400 took power in 411 BC. It transformed into the “5000” oligarchy shortly afterwards before the Athenian Navy liberated Athens and re-established democracy. https://www.britannica.com/event/Peloponnesian-War
Athens replaced the citizen sailors with slaves. Thucydides reports that Greece at large was stunned that Athens endured another decade following the catastrophe.
I learned about the fear of Dr. Fauci’s influence in my first month as the 2020-2021 Commandant’s Fellow at DARPA. The power structure and internal biosecurity enterprise battles were also explained to me at this time.
David Asher Interview – The Vince Coglianese Show. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YI43JEUfXOQ
DEFUSE project proposal: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21066966-defuse-proposal/
. For the unaware reader, I uncovered the possible blueprint for SARS-CoV-2, called Project DEFUSE, while a Marine Corps fellow at DARPA in 2021. This is public information reported numerous times and included in books and a movie.
Siegel: “A Guide to Understanding the Hoax of the Century.” Tablet Magazine. March 28, 2023. https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/guide-understanding-hoax-century-thirteen-ways-looking-disinformation#facebook
See George Friedman’s 2020 book The Storm Before the Calm: America’s Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond amongst others.
See Michael Lind’s “The New National American Elite” as a reference, also referenced by Siegel in Section XI of his work. https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/new-national-american-elite
The Athenians recorded and historically referred to their oligarchy as the Oligarchy.
https://www.axios.com/2024/06/29/biden-debate-replace-advisers
. There is another article where a young Harris staffer quips that Biden’s team is an oligarchy.
See DRASTIC for the 2018 EcoHealth Alliance Project DEFUSE proposal to DARPA: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21066966-defuse-proposal/
.
Canary in a COVID World, Canary House Publishing, edited by C. H. Klotz, P. 117-118
“‘Died Suddenly’? More Than 1-in-4 Think Someone They Know Died From COVID-19 Vaccines – Demographics”, Rasmussen Reports, poll conducted 28-30 Dec 2022. https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/public_surveys/crosstabs_2_vaccine_deaths_december_28_30_2022#google_vignette
https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/navy-sailor-shortage-ship-readiness/3625593/
See Quay and Berenson. https://x.com/quay_dr/status/1872681596400394461?mx=2
This is known from whistleblower reporting and congressional inquiry. It is also known amongst investigators that Peter Daszak and EcoHealth Alliance performed Type II Diplomacy. There is nothing ostensibly wrong with the IC doing its job to obtain hard-to-get information. It broaches immorality when it contributes to cover-up when lack of oversight leads to a leak and corresponding pandemic.
The Unnatural Origin of SARS and New Species of Man-Made Viruses as Genetic Bioweapons, 2015.
Keeping this bracketed in case it turns out the spike protein was designed and/or made in the US and tested in Wuhan.
I possess the security clearance to view Covid origins intelligence and analysis.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Fri, 01/31/2025 - 21:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biodefense-oligarchy-and-its-demographic-defeats
It Took $5.8 In Debt To Generate $1 Of US "Growth" In The Fourth Quarter
It Took $5.8 In Debt To Generate $1 Of US "Growth" In The Fourth Quarter
We will have much more to say on the composition of https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/q4-gdp-growth-comes-unexpectedly-light-despite-red-hot-personal-spending-beating
which as we highlighted was a very ugly print, and only another quarter of extensive government spending (the 10th quarter in a row) and a record beat of consumer spending relative to expectations, prevented the GDP print from sliding into the 1% range...
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... but even if one assumes that there was nothing abnormal about the number itself, the context in which it was derived was astounding. Here's why.
As the BEA reported, in Q4 US GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted rate of 2.3%, below the 2.6% estimate and down from the 3.1% growth pace in Q3. More specifically, the number represented the annualized increase in the 131BN change between what the https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-01/gdp4q24-adv.pdf
was chained Q3 GDP ($23.400 trillion) and Q4 GDP ($23.531 trillion). In other words, to keep it simpler, in Q4 the US economy actually grew some $130.6 billion chained dollars.
So far so good. The only problem is what funded this growth, and as regular readers are well aware, in the US the source of all growth is - and for the past 100 years - has been debt, and boy was Q4 a doozy.
As the chart below shows, while the US generated $131bn in chained GDP growth in Q4, this was the result of a $711 billion increase in the US budget deficit, which in turn was funded with a $754 billion increase in debt which, as of Dec 31, 2024, stood at a record 36.218 trillion. The Q4 snapshot is shown below.
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And it's not just Q4. Extending this analysis to all of 2024 we find an almost identical pattern: in the full year 2024, US GDP grew by $570 billion from $22.961 trillion to $23.531 trillion, growth which was made possible by a near record $2.034 trillion increase in the budget deficit, which in turn was funded by a mammoth $2.2 trillion increase in debt.
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The bottom line: in Q4 it took $5.8 dollars of debt to create $1 dollar of growth, an increase from $3.5 in Q3 and from $1.5 in Q2, which is to be expected: as we revealed in the summer of 2023, US growth was one giant illusion and was entirely the result of the massive debt creation spree launched under Biden. No surprise that with the election in Q4 2024, that's when the bulk of the debt-fueled frenzy would take place.
Taking a bigger picture look, for the full year 2024, it took $3.9 dollar in debt to generate $1 in growth, an increase from the $3.6 in 2023.
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What this means is that the only hope the US ever has to grow is to issue debt, or rather issue lots and lots of debt. So good luck to Trump and Elon and DOGE if they hope to slow down the firehose of US debt issuance. They may be successful, but they better have a plan for how to deal with the deep recession that will be immediately triggered as a result.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Fri, 01/31/2025 - 14:05
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/it-took-58-debt-generate-1-growth-q4
Bullish Exuberance Returns As Trump Takes Office
Bullish Exuberance Returns As Trump Takes Office
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bullish-exuberance-returns-as-trump-takes-office/
Bullish exuberance is returning to the markets and the economy in a big way following the Presidential election.
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Such is particularly the case with recent executive orders signed by Trump, which fulfill Trump’s promises to “Make America Great Again.” Given that short-term market dynamics are driven primarily by sentiment, as investors, we can not dismiss the rapid turn in optimism over the last few weeks. We addressed this point in this past weekend’s https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/inauguration-sends-confidence-surging-higher/
which I want to build on in today’s commentary.
As discussed in that report, the NFIB confidence index has surged from some of the lowest readings on record for the past four years to some of the highest.
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Consequently, as small business owners’ confidence improves, the CEOs of large companies are also becoming much more optimistic. As shown, and unsurprisingly, there is a correlation between the improvement or decline in CEO confidence and the annual rate of change in the financial markets. Higher asset prices, which impact CEO compensation through stock options, have certainly lifted their spirits.
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The improvement in optimism is unsurprising given the many anti-business policies and regulations implemented by the former administration. With many of the previous regulatory hurdles either being immediately repealed or promised to be, business owners are “feeling” much more confident about the future of their businesses.
Note that I put “feeling” in quotes.
This is because the NFIB, CEO, consumer confidence, and most business surveys are based on “sentiment.” While sentiment is important to business decision-making, economic outcomes can easily reverse it. In other words, optimism must be supported by improving economic activity. However, the “hope” is certainly high that such will be the case, and increased activity will lead to an extension of the current bull market.
Consumer Confidence: A Critical Driver
In a https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/yardeni-and-the-long-history-of-prediction-problems/
, we discussed the importance of consumer confidence in the economy and the stock market. This is why, in 2010, the Federal Reserve clearly expressed its reasoning for launching the second round of “Quantitative Easing.”
“This approach eased financial conditions in the past and, so far, looks to be effective again. Stock prices rose and long-term interest rates fell when investors began anticipating the most recent action. Easier financial conditions will promote economic growth. For example, lower mortgage rates will make housing more affordable and allow more homeowners to refinance. Lower corporate bond rates will encourage investment. And higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending.” – https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/03/AR2010110307372.html
Specifically, Bernanke was referring to two things. First, creating the “wealth effect” by lifting asset prices was crucial to getting consumers “feeling better” about spending money in the economy. As their wealth rose, their economic activities increased business demand, thereby lifting the sentiment of business owners and CEOs. The chart below shows a composite index of Consumer, Small Business, and CEO confidence compared to real GDP growth.
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While the high correlation is unsurprising, it is worth noting that not all periods of high confidence led to increasing strong economic activity rates. Such was particularly the case following the financial crisis as sentiment rose sharply, but economic activity was mired around 2% annualized growth rates. That was because the wealth effect creation following the “Financial Crisis” was not broad-based. As shown, the inflation-adjusted household net worth for the bottom 50% of the population failed to change substantially.
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Furthermore, while asset price inflation certainly lifted overall confidence, the benefit was concentrated in the top 10% of income earners. That group owns roughly 88% of all household equity ownership. That concentration of wealth kept economic growth rates suppressed as the bottom 50% of economic participants could not substantially increase consumption.
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Nonetheless, the current levels of bullish exuberance in the markets are understandable. As shown, there is a high correlation between the confidence composite index and the market’s annual rate of change.
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So, while Trump’s recent inauguration and his policy agenda have certainly boosted the market’s “bullish exuberance,” there is a risk.
The Risk Of Bullish Exuberance
The risk to “bullish exuberance” is that it depends on “expectations” being met by reality. Investors and Wall Street analysts are very optimistic about a continued bull market in the years ahead. However, I suggest there are potential headwinds as the economy normalizes following an era of monetary interventions.
One of those headwinds is earnings growth. Earnings are a function of economic activity. To visualize this data, we must look at the correlation between the annual change in earnings growth and inflation-adjusted GDP. There are periods when earnings deviate from underlying economic activity. However, those periods are due to pre- or post-recession earnings fluctuations. Currently, economic and earnings growth are very close to the long-term correlation.
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However, earnings growth will also slow as economic growth normalizes toward its post “Financial Crisis” 2% long-term trajectory.
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In an economy roughly 70% dependent on consumption, that consumption generates the revenues to create corporate earnings. As that consumption rate declines toward its 2% trend, so too will the corporate earnings growth rate.
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Secondly, since the “Financial Crisis,” the market has vastly outgrown the underlying fundamentals of corporate revenue and economic growth. With the wealth gap widening, it will become more difficult to “pull forward” future consumption. Since the 2007 peak, the stock market has returned over 300%. That increase is more than 7x the growth in real GDP and roughly 3x the growth in corporate revenue.
(I have used SALES growth, which is not as subject to accounting manipulation.)
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Conclusion
For investors, the biggest risk to “bullish exuberance” in 2025 is “disappointment.” With the bar set for “perfection,” a slower-growing economy or economic disruption leaves investors open to a large reversal in sentiment. As discussed, optimistic sentiment is important for business owners and CEOs to increase wages, employment, and CapEx. However, those plans will be reversed if consumer demand fails to appear.
Will such a thing happen with certainty? No one knows, but the underlying data certainly suggests the risks are elevated.
As investors, we must analyze the risks to our capital and adjust accordingly. As we concluded in https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/curb-your-enthusiasm-in-2025/
Tighten up stop-loss levels to current support levels for each position. (Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)
Hedge portfolios against significant market declines. (Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)
Take profits in positions that have been big winners. (Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continuing to participate in the advance).
Sell laggards and losers. (If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. It is better to eliminate the risk early.)
Raise cash and rebalance portfolios to target weightings. (Rebalancing risk regularly keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)
“Investing in 2025 will require a blend of optimism and caution. With slowing economic growth, fiscal policy uncertainties, global challenges, overconfident sentiment, and ambitious earnings expectations, investors have plenty of reasons to approach the markets carefully. There will be a time to raise significant cash levels. A good portfolio management strategy will ensure exposure decreases and cash levels rise when the selling begins.”
That remains our suggestion as “bullish exuberance” increases.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Fri, 01/31/2025 - 13:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bullish-exuberance-returns-trump-takes-office
Trump Slaps 25% Tariffs On Canada & Mexico, 10% On China
Trump Slaps 25% Tariffs On Canada & Mexico, 10% On China
Tomorrow, February 1, the Trump administration will slap 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on China, as announced during Friday's press briefing by White House spox Karoline Leavitt, who denied reports of a delay to March 1.
🚨BREAKING: Karoline Leavitt confirms that the Reuters report is FALSE. Tomorrow, Feb 1st is the deadline for the tariffs
There will be a 25% tariff on Canada, a 25% tariff on Mexico, and a 10% tariff on China
No clarification on exemptions
They will be LIVE in under 24 hours https://t.co/7pzV9pblD9
— Autism Capital 🧩 (@AutismCapital) https://twitter.com/AutismCapital/status/1885393819098898702?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
There will be no delay, selective targeting, or slow roll-out of phased-in tariffs as https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/trumps-25-tariff-shock-heres-what-goldman-and-deutsche-bank-think-will-happen
by Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank.
That said, there could be certain exemptions - such as for oil and gas, which Leavitt did not elaborate on. For now, all we have to go on is Trump's most recent comments on oil:
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"It depends on what the price is. If the oil is properly priced, if they treat us properly — which they don’t," he said Thursday while speaking with reporters.
The United States imported nearly 4.6 million barrels of oil per day from Canada in October, and 563,000 barrels from Mexico. Daily US production over the same period averaged nearly 13.5 million barrels per day.
So in this scenario - full tariffs with zero quarter given, "we would expect to see USDCAD move decidedly higher come Monday, challenging the 1.50 level and representing a more than 3% move higher in the cross relative to current spot. To be clear, Canada could retaliate with dollar-for-dollar tariffs in absolute terms since its trade relationship with the US is balanced, however, USDCAD will still be higher given that the US economy is more than 10x the size of its Canadian counterpart," according to DB.
On Friday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that any tariffs would stoke an 'immediate' and 'forceful' response.
"We're ready with a response - a purposeful, forceful but reasonable, immediate response. It's not what we want, but if he moves forward, we will also act," said Trudeau, adding that all options were on the table.
Canada sends 75% of its goods and services exports to the US, meaning that the tariffs will sting.
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"I won't sugarcoat it - our nation could be facing difficult times in the coming days and weeks," Trudeau continued. "I know Canadians might be anxious and worried, but I want them to know the federal government, and indeed, all orders of government, have their backs."
Ontario Premier Doug Ford has already vowed to slap back by pulling American alcohol off of store shelves (and into his pantry?) - as Canada is the world's second largest market for America's distilled spirits, behind the 27-nation EU.
Developing...
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Fri, 01/31/2025 - 13:29
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-slaps-25-tariffs-canada-mexico-10-china
Chuck Todd Out At NBC News In Latest MSM Shakeup
Chuck Todd Out At NBC News In Latest MSM Shakeup
Chuck Todd, the former moderator of "Meet the Press," is leaving NBC News, he told colleagues in a Friday memo.
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Todd, much like https://www.zerohedge.com/political/jim-acosta-leave-cnn-after-18-years-report
who rage-quit CNN a few days ago, says he's going to be 'pursuing ventures' outside the NBCUniversal empire.
In recent weeks, Todd has been meeting with other news outlets and potential employers, Variety reports. So unlike Acosta who stomped off to Substack after CNN stuck him in the midnight bitch seat, it looks like Todd is actually making a lateral move of some type.
"There’s never a perfect time to leave a place that’s been a professional home for so long, but I’m pretty excited about a few new projects that are on the cusp of going from ‘pie in the sky’ to ‘near reality,'" Todd told NBC News staffers in a Friday memo reported by https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/chuck-todd-exit-nbc-news-1236273148/
. "So I’m grateful for the chance to get a jump start on my next chapter during this important moment."
He said his “Chuck Toddcast” podcast would be “coming with me,” and urged colleagues to “stay tuned for an announcement about its new home soon.” Todd plans “to continue to share my reporting and unique perspective of covering politics with data and history as important baselines in understanding where we were, where we are and where we’re going.” -Variety
In a statement, NBC News said "We’re grateful for Chuck’s many contributions to our political coverage during his nearly two-decade career at NBC News and for his deep commitment to Meet the Press and its enduring legacy," adding "We wish him all the best in his next endeavors."
Todd's departure - which was https://www.zerohedge.com/political/regime-media-mouthpieces-chuck-todd-jenn-rubin-quit-outlets
two weeks ago, follows the likes of Don Lemon and Megyn Kelly in terms of well-known TV anchors who have moved on to digital media.
According to https://www.semafor.com/article/01/12/2025/chuck-todd-to-exit-nbc
on Jan. 12, NBC host Chuck Todd has "quietly been meeting with Washington media organizations about his post NBC-future," reportedly telling top editors and leaders from other media organizations that he's outta there when his contract is up this year, and has discussed potential roles with the network in both broadcast and digital media.
Todd was once a key part of NBC’s broadcast offerings, hosting Meet The Press and a daily Meet The Press politics program on MSNBC and writing for its website. But while NBC announced that Todd would focus on longform projects after stepping down from Meet the Press in 2023, he has been a far less visible presence across the news network and its cable counterpart. -https://www.semafor.com/article/01/12/2025/chuck-todd-to-exit-nbc
Related:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/meet-press-chuck-todds-flagrant-lies-gretchen-whitmer-interview
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Fri, 01/31/2025 - 13:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/chuck-todd-out-nbc-news-latest-msm-shakeup
Traders Go All-In On Middle East Oil As Sanctions Reshape Market
Traders Go All-In On Middle East Oil As Sanctions Reshape Market
By Julianne Geiger of https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Traders-Go-All-In-on-Middle-East-Oil-as-Sanctions-Reshape-Market.html
Oil traders are making big moves in the Brent-Dubai spread, a contract that lets them bet on the price gap between Middle Eastern crude and global benchmark Brent. The action has hit record levels, thanks to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil that are forcing buyers to look elsewhere for supply, with the situation presenting a lucrative opportunity for traders willing to play.
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This week, open interest on the Brent-Dubai contract surged to an all-time high of 448,000 contracts, Bloomberg stated on Thursday. That spike comes as Dubai crude recently hit its highest premium over Brent in at least a decade.
The reason?
Buyers that once relied on Russian oil are scrambling for alternatives, and many are turning to the Middle East.
With demand soaring, Middle Eastern oil prices are climbing faster than crude from other regions. That’s creating ripple effects across the market. European refiners, who might typically buy oil from the North Sea or Kazakhstan, are seeing their usual supplies rerouted to Asia instead. Asian refiners, eager for stable and competitively priced barrels, are snapping up whatever they can get--from wherever they can get it.
For traders, Russian sanctions and Trump's squeeze on Canada and push on OPEC is a golden opportunity. For refiners and buyers, it’s another challenge in a world where energy flows are anything but predictable.
As long as sanctions stay in place and Russian crude remains off-limits to many, expect more big bets on Middle Eastern oil and continued price swings in global crude markets.
The latest Reuters survey published over the weekend suggested that Saudi Arabia would https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Saudi-Arabia-Set-to-Hike-Oil-Prices-to-Asia-to-14-Month-High.html
to Asia for March—the highest against the benchmarks since January 2024.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Fri, 01/31/2025 - 13:00
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/traders-go-all-middle-east-oil-sanctions-reshape-market
Did DeepSeek Use Shell Companies In Singapore To Procure Nvidia Blacklisted Chips?
Did DeepSeek Use Shell Companies In Singapore To Procure Nvidia Blacklisted Chips?
Chinese startup DeepSeek's latest AI models, V3 and R1, were reportedly trained on just 2,048 Nvidia H800 chips—GPUs that were blacklisted by the US government in 2023 for sale to Chinese firms. Federal investigators are now combing through trade data to determine how DeepSeek acquired the restricted chips.
).
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Here are more details about the probe:
Officials in the White House and Federal Bureau of Investigation are also trying to determine whether DeepSeek used intermediaries in the Southeast Asian nation to purchase Nvidia chips that the US has banned from sale to China, said the people, who requested anonymity to relay private conversations.
At a confirmation hearing on Wednesday, Howard Lutnick, President Donald Trump's nominee to lead the Commerce Department, said, "Nvidia's chips, which they bought tons of, and they found their ways around it, drive their DeepSeek model," adding, "It's got to end. If they are going to compete with us, let them compete, but stop using our tools to compete with us. So I'm going to be very strong on that."
Bloomberg has reported that Trump administration officials are focused on whether H20 chips should be restricted as well. This trend of restricting China from advanced AI chips designed and produced by US or Western-aligned companies ramped up in the last four years.
According to regulatory filings, Singapore accounts for 20% of Nvidia's revenue. The filings also show that "most shipments associated with Singapore revenue were to locations other than Singapore, and shipments to Singapore were insignificant."
Biden officials recently expanded rules that large shipments of high-tech chips to Singapore would require a license. However, shipments under 1,700 chips only require notification.
Those sources close to the federal investigation did not provide Bloomberg with any other details about the Singapore buyers or if those entities were just shell companies.
A report from late 2023 via Bloomberg found that a https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/trade-data-reveals-indian-biotech-firm-supplying-us-ai-chips-russia
in India was buying high-tech US chips, then turning around and selling them to Russia to circumnavigate sanctions.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Fri, 01/31/2025 - 07:20
Tariff Concerns Surge On Earnings Calls Ahead Of Canada & Mexico Deadline
Tariff Concerns Surge On Earnings Calls Ahead Of Canada & Mexico Deadline
White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Tuesday that President Donald Trump still plans to https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/us-futures-jump-even-trump-pledges-25-tariffs-mexico-canada
of about 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico on Saturday unless the countries halt the illegal alien invasions and fentanyl flows into the US. The president has also warned that China faces 10% tariffs.
Yesterday, right before the close, https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-rocks-canada-and-mexico-reiterates-threat-impose-25-tariffs-over-fentanyl
.
This trade uncertainty has pushed tariff mentions on earnings calls by management teams of S&P 500 and Stoxx Europe 600 companies to their highest level since 2018—when Trump first launched the trade war.
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It's no secret that Trump's 'America First' agenda includes imposing across-the-board tariffs on top trading partners. The story count of "tariff" articles in corporate media began surging in mid-2024.
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When reporters asked Leavitt about Trump's Saturday deadline for Canada and Mexico, she said the president "still holds" the line.
"The president has also put out specific statements in terms of Canada and Mexico, when it comes to what he expects in terms of border security." Leavitt added, "We have seen a historic level of cooperation from Mexico. But again, as far as I'm still tracking, and that was last night talking to the president directly, Feb. 1 is still on the books."
Adding more color on the trade situation, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius told clients last week after Trump's series of executive orders that initial trade policy coming from the Trump-Vance administration was "https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-views-trumps-day-one-trade-policy-more-benign-tone
," adding, "the president's comments on China were notably less hawkish than during the presidential campaign or even his more recent comments since the election."
Hatzius noted, "And while we viewed a "universal tariff" as a clear risk, the president's comments suggest that, for now, it is a lower priority than we would have expected."
Goldman's tariff expectations:
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Suppose Trump's tariffs on Canada or Mexico take effect on Saturday. In that case, a sharp increase in tariff and all other trade mentions during future earnings calls between analysts and management teams is expected.
Trump's stance on tariffs has remained the same since the campaign trail.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Fri, 01/31/2025 - 06:55
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tariff-concerns-surge-earnings-calls-ahead-canada-mexico-deadline
Why We Need DOGE: 5 Crazy Examples Of How The Government Has Been Wasting Your Tax Dollars
Why We Need DOGE: 5 Crazy Examples Of How The Government Has Been Wasting Your Tax Dollars
The U.S. government has been wasting money in some of the most bizarre ways imaginable. Some of the examples that I am about to share with you are likely to make you feel sick. Wasting colossal piles of our tax dollars would be bad enough if we were running a balanced budget, but that is certainly not the case. We have been adding trillions of dollars to the national debt each year, and our federal government is now more than 36 trillion dollars in debt.
So the truth is that we have had to borrow the money that we have been recklessly wasting.
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The following are 5 crazy examples of how the government has been wasting your tax dollars…
#1 Joe Biden and his minions spent 15 million dollars to distribute https://www.dailyfetched.com/biden-admin-spent-15-million-in-taxpayer-funds-providing-condoms-to-afghan-men/
in Afghanistan…
The Biden administration sent $15 million of taxpayer money in distributing “oral contraceptives and condoms” into Afghanistan, according to a private congressional funding notice reviewed by the Washington Free Beacon.
The award, earmarked by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) last July, transmitted the funds to Afghanistan.
The money was part of a whopping $100 million package for the Middle Eastern country to support the “basic rights and freedoms” of women and girls who were living under Taliban rule.
#2 Even more money was about to be spent on condoms for the Palestinians. It is https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14334647/donald-trump-condoms-gaza-trans-operas-colombia-foreign-spending.html
that the Biden administration “almost sent $50 million worth of condoms to Gaza”…
Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also announced on Tuesday that Biden’s administration almost sent $50 million worth of condoms to Gaza, which she called ‘a preposterous waste of taxpayer money!’
‘There was about to be $50 million taxpayer dollars that went out the door to fund condoms in Gaza!’ Leavitt shockingly claimed.
#3 The Biden administration spent $10,000 for an https://www.foxnews.com/politics/drag-shows-arabic-sesame-street-lonely-rats-gop-senator-details-how-biden-spent-1t-government-waste
that was focused on climate change…
The 2024 Festivus Waste Report found that the Biden-Harris administration spent over $1 trillion this year, including giving a $10,000 grant to “Beards on Ice” — an ice skating drag show on climate change put on by the Bearded Ladies Cabaret, a self-described “queer cabaret arts organization.”
#4 20 million of our tax dollars were spent on a Sesame Street spin-off in Iraq that was designed to promote https://www.foxnews.com/politics/drag-shows-arabic-sesame-street-lonely-rats-gop-senator-details-how-biden-spent-1t-government-waste
…
Additionally, the Agency for International Development (USAID) spent $20 million on a Sesame Street spin-off show in Iraq, titled “Ahlan Simsim,” in an effort to promote “inclusion” and “mutual respect.”
#5 This final example is the most sickening. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/drag-shows-arabic-sesame-street-lonely-rats-gop-senator-details-how-biden-spent-1t-government-waste
was spent to study how various species respond to motion sickness. In one of the experiments, holes were actually drilled into the skulls of young kittens. This is evil on a level that I don’t even know how to describe…
About $1.5 million was spent experimenting how different species, such as young female kittens, respond to motion sickness.
According to the report, researchers would strap kittens to a table, where they are spun around in several directions and have holes drilled into their skulls to keep them in place — “and it’s all being done with your money,” Paul writes in the report. “More than one and a half million dollars of it.”
Whoever conducted those experiments on young kittens should be immediately arrested and thrown in prison.
Unfortunately, this kind of “science” is happening in secret labs all over the country, and way too often our tax dollars are funding it.
Are you starting to understand why we desperately need DOGE?
I could give you hundreds of more examples of government waste, but I think that I have made my point.
that it will be possible to cut a trillion dollars out of the federal budget…
“I think we’ll try for $2 trillion. I think that’s like the best-case outcome,” Musk said during tech trade show CES on Wednesday in Las Vegas, the Post reported. “But I do think that you kind of have to have some overage. I think if we try for $2 trillion, we’ve got a good shot at getting $1 [trillion].”
And it looks like they are off to a great start.
The official DOGE account on Twitter https://x.com/DOGE/status/1884396041786524032?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1884396041786524032%7Ctwgr%5E957459496c48b0d9425b7e5a4d60f1d3f90a288d%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.infowars.com%2Fposts%2Felon-musks-doge-already-saving-1-billion-a-day
that the federal government is already saving approximately a billion dollars a day based on actions that have been implemented so far…
DOGE is saving the Federal Government approx. $1 billion/day, mostly from stopping the hiring of people into unnecessary positions, deletion of DEI and stopping improper payments to foreign organizations, all consistent with the President’s Executive Orders.
A good start, though this number needs to increase to > $3 billion/day.
Of course a billion dollars a day is just a drop in the bucket.
Much deeper cuts are needed, and representatives from DOGE have been interviewing staffers https://www.foxnews.com/politics/doge-reps-launch-meetings-federal-staffers-effort-cut-government-waste-report
…
Aides for Tesla and Space X CEO Elon Musk and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy are starting to interview staffers with the federal government for the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), according to a new report.
Representatives for DOGE have had conversations with staffers from more than a dozen federal agencies — including the Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service, as well as the Departments of Veterans Affairs, Homeland Security, and Health and Human Services, The Washington Post reported Friday.
Unused office space is one area where enormous cuts could potentially be made.
It is being estimated that up to two-thirds of the office space that the government owns https://wolfstreet.com/2025/01/25/doge-seeks-to-shed-vast-amounts-of-government-office-space-heres-how-much-the-government-leases-and-where-and-what-it-can-shed-during-trumps-term/
…
The DOGE people in the Trump administration are considering shedding a big portion of the massive office space that the government owns or leases nationwide, managed by the General Services Administration (GSA), including selling two-thirds of the office space the government owns and terminating three-quarters of the leased office space, according to the WSJ.
Of course selling off so much office space would make our commercial real estate crisis even worse.
But that is a topic for a different article.
For now, we should all be thrilled that a serious effort is finally being made to reduce government waste.
It is inevitable that the left will take legal action against DOGE, but at this moment the Democrats are in a state of shock because the Trump administration https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2025/01/29/nyt-trump-frustrates-democrats-with-flood-the-zone-strategy/
…
Democrats are hoping that Trump will make mistakes, and hope to capitalize on them when he does. But for now, they are scrambling to find enough lawyers, and lawsuits, to slow down the fastest start in presidential history.
We have never seen anything like this.
Many battles are ahead, and I don’t know how all of those battles will play out.
But at least something is finally being done to crack down on government waste, and that is a reason to smile.
* * *
Michael’s new book entitled https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DFVKTRJR
.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Fri, 01/31/2025 - 06:30
Syrian Leaders Demand Russia 'Hand Over Assad, Pay Compensation'
Syrian Leaders Demand Russia 'Hand Over Assad, Pay Compensation'
Syria's ruling Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/jolani-declares-himself-president-syria-after-canceling-elections-constitution
of Syria Ahmad al-Sharaa (or Abu Mohammad al-Jolani), have demanded that Russia hand over ousted leader Bashar al-Assad.
Syrian HTS officials are also demanding "compensation" from Moscow after it sent its military forces in support of Assad since 2015. Russia is being asked to help with "reconstruction and recovery" following 13-years of war.
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Sharaa's Islamist government wants Russia to rebuild trust through "concrete measures such as compensation, reconstruction and recovery."
All of this was https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-syria-hold-further-talks-russian-military-bases-syria-tass-reports-2025-01-29/
in a meeting which took place this week between HTS and a Russian delegation in Damascus, which was a first since Assad fled on December 8. Russia quickly granted Assad and his family asylum, but he hasn't been seen or photographed since.
It's widely been reported that he is in Moscow, and many rumors have persisted - such as that he was supposedly poisoned - but none have proved true.
Of course, Russia is very unlikely to send Assad back to Syria; however, the Kremlin does have a strategic interest in keeping its naval and air bases on Syria's Mediterranean coast. Military equipment has been largely packed up and moved elsewhere over the past weeks.
The status of the Tartous naval base and Hmeimim airbase remains https://thecradle.co/articles/syrian-officials-ask-russia-to-pay-compensation-hand-over-assad-report
:
Satellite https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c14nk475nd5o
reporters that “no progress has been made on the issue [of the bases],” and that “more negotiations are needed,” according to Russian news agency TASS.
The Russian delegation to Damascus was led by Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov. "The meeting was generally good, it lasted three hours and included an official dinner … In general, the meeting was constructive and the atmosphere was positive," Bogdanov told a press briefing.
The two sides "agreed to continue contacts to strengthen relations and understanding in the field of foreign policy."
The Kremlin has been asked about the reports of a demand to boot Assad from Russia, but has not confirmed or denied that the request was made.
Why are you stunned that the ISIS-aligned goon who murdered Hevrin Khalaf spoke at Jolani’s “victory” party?
Isn’t this what would inevitably happen when the former leader of Syrian Al Qaeda took power after a decade long dirty war on the govt?
Don’t say we didn’t warn you! https://t.co/ZtrVYvETzJ
— Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1884974377164312623?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Meanwhile, Russian forces are still present on Syria's coast, but likely at diminished capacity, with reports saying much equipment has already been moved to a port in Eastern Libya under Khalifa Haftar.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Fri, 01/31/2025 - 05:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/syrian-leaders-demand-russia-hand-over-assad-pay-compensation
Tether Disappointed With "Rushed Actions" On MiCA-Driven USDT Delisting In Europe
Tether Disappointed With "Rushed Actions" On MiCA-Driven USDT Delisting In Europe
https://cointelegraph.com/news/tether-mica-usdt-delistings-europe
Stablecoin operator Tether addressed European cryptocurrency regulations amid exchanges like Crypto.com preparing to delist its USDt stablecoin in Europe tomorrow.
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Tether expressed disappointment over market developments in Europe amid changes triggered by the enforcement of the European Union’s https://cointelegraph.com/learn/articles/markets-in-crypto-assets-regulation-mica
(MiCA) framework.
Crypto.com, a global crypto exchange, confirmed on Jan. 29 it will start https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-com-delist-usdt-europe-mica-compliance
stablecoin and nine other tokens on Jan. 31 to comply with MiCA regulations.
“It is disappointing to see the rushed actions brought on by statements which do little to clarify the basis for such moves,” a spokesperson for Tether told Cointelegraph.
EU consumers under risk of “disorderly” crypto market
MiCA-triggered changes pose significant risks for EU consumers and the local crypto market, with exchanges like Crypto.com preparing to delist multiple tokens, according to Tether.
“These changes affect many tokens in the EU market, not only USDt, and we fear that such actions will lead to further risk being placed on consumers in the EU,” Tether’s representative said.
According to Tether, such regulatory developments in the EU could create a “disorderly” market at a time when MiCA is still in the early stages of implementation.
?itok=_K7-ITZQ
As previously mentioned, Crypto.com’s MiCA-forced delisting process is set to affect a total of 10 tokens, including https://cointelegraph.com/explained/wrapped-crypto-tokens-explained
, Dai stablecoin and more.
Coinbase — an exchange that https://cointelegraph.com/news/coinbase-delisting-tether-usdt-stablecoin-europe
for other reasons on Dec. 19, 2024.
“We regularly review the assets we make available to customers on our platform to ensure we are meeting regulatory requirements, and will assess re-enabling services for stablecoins that achieve MiCA compliance on a later date,” a Coinbase representative told Cointelegraph on Jan. 30.
The spokesperson also mentioned that Coinbase has so far delisted a total of eight tokens to comply with MiCA.
Tether finalizes European strategy for USDt
Apart from broader consumer risks potentially arising from MiCA-triggered ecosystem changes, Tether https://cointelegraph.com/news/is-tether-usdt-noncompliant-europe-mica
for stablecoins licensed in the EU.
“As we have consistently expressed, some aspects of MiCA make the operation of EU-licensed stablecoins more complex and potentially introduce new risks,” Tether said.
Tether’s representative also again highlighted differences in stablecoin use cases between Europe and emerging markets, where USDT is extremely popular.
“The USD stablecoin market is almost negligible in Europe,” the spokesperson noted.
At the same time, Tether still commends EU regulators for their efforts in establishing a structured framework, as it plays a key role in fostering growth within the sector, the spokesperson noted, adding:
“As Tether finalizes its European strategy for USDt, it remains committed to ensuring compliance with evolving regulations while introducing groundbreaking technologies such as Hadron and investments in transformative projects such as Quantor, designed to be MiCA compliant.”
Tether’s comments come shortly after the European Securities and Markets Authority pushed European crypto asset service providers (CASP) to start https://cointelegraph.com/news/eu-regulator-restriction-non-mica-compliant-stablecoins
by the end of January.
While still allowing the listing of those tokens in sell mode until March 31, the regulator has asked CASPs to completely restrict non-compliant stablecoins by the end of the first quarter of 2025.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Fri, 01/31/2025 - 05:00