Tesla Sales Fell 59% In Germany In January, As EV Sales Across Europe Whipsawed
Tesla Sales Fell 59% In Germany In January, As EV Sales Across Europe Whipsawed
Sales of Tesla fell in Europe to start the year, falling 59% in Germany in January, as https://www.ft.com/content/ea2329e4-b4bc-4e2d-be34-e9a8ea31129c
by Financial Times.
And, at least for now, as the report notes, the trend appears to be following suit throughout the rest of Europe.
In January, Tesla's new car registrations in Germany plunged 59.5% to 1,277, despite hosting its sole European factory. Sales also fell sharply in France (down 63%), Norway (38%), and the UK (8%) year-over-year, FT https://www.ft.com/content/ea2329e4-b4bc-4e2d-be34-e9a8ea31129c
.
EV sales "slowed sharply in Germany and France" last year after subsidy cuts but have recently started to rebound. Despite this, Tesla’s January sales fell, dropping its German market share from 14% to 4%, even as the overall EV market grew over 50%.
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Analysts cite anticipation for the updated Model Y in 2025 and backlash against Elon Musk’s political activities as possible reasons for the dropoff. Schmidt Automotive Research told the New York Times that buyers in Germany could be "reacting to Musk’s comments” about politics in Europe.
In California, Tesla’s largest U.S. market, new registrations also fell 11.6% in 2024, despite overall EV sales rising 1.2%, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/05/business/tesla-germany-elon-musk.html
.
a softer expected Q4 2024, but Tesla stock has mostly held up in the interim. At the time, reactions were mixed, with some bearish:
“It’s clear that the market was looking for better profitability and better guidance,” said Seth Goldstein of Morningstar. “We heard on the last earnings call 20% to 30% growth, and now it’s just ‘return to growth.’ People want more firm guidance: What is the plan, and how are you going to get there?”
...and others bullish:
Cathie Wood said she thinks the stock reversal was fueled, in part, by the idea that Tesla will be scaling the Cybercab in 2026 and that production has to start this year. “We can see Tesla get down to a $15,000 car,” she said on a livestream on X spaces, noting a five-year time horizon. “This is nothing a traditional auto analyst can relate to.”
when CEO Elon Musk penned a supportive op-ed for Germany's AfD party in the country’s Welt am Sonntag newspaper... prompting the resignation of the paper's editor.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 02/06/2025 - 13:45
Tether Is Building AI Apps & An Open-Source SDK Platform
Tether Is Building AI Apps & An Open-Source SDK Platform
https://cointelegraph.com/news/tether-building-ai-apps-open-source-sdk-platform
The world’s largest stablecoin issuer, Tether, is venturing deeper into artificial intelligence with a number of AI applications in development, according to the firm’s chief executive.
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Tether’s AI division, Tether Data, is developing a number of AI apps, such as AI Translate, AI Voice Assistant, and AI Bitcoin Wallet Assistant, https://x.com/paoloardoino/status/1886793478459330754
to a Feb. 4 announcement from CEO Paolo Ardoino.
Tether Data, preview of some of the AI apps we're developing: AI translate, AI voice assistant, AI bitcoin wallet assistant.
Tether will launch soon its own AI SDK platform, open-source, built upon Bare (Holepunch's javascript runtime), working on every hardware, from embedded… https://t.co/W5JFmoVcnh
— Paolo Ardoino 🤖🍐 (@paoloardoino) https://twitter.com/paoloardoino/status/1886793478459330754?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
“Tether will soon launch its own AI SDK [software development kit] platform, open-source, built upon Bare, working on every hardware, from embedded devices, any mobile phone, any laptop, powerful servers, clusters of servers,” he added.
Further details were thin but Ardoino said that Tether Data’s apps “will focus on working locally on any device, full privacy, self-custodial for both data and money.”
In the demo for the AI Bitcoin Wallet Assistant, a user asked the “Payment Agent” what their BTC wallet address was before querying about the BTC balance.
The demo also showed the user asking what recipients they had in their address book before requesting the agent send a small amount of BTC to one of them.
The entire process was conducted through the AI chatbot interface and carried out autonomously.
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Source: https://x.com/paoloardoino/status/1886793478459330754
Tether’s AI Translate was a simple AI chatbot translation tool and AI Voice Assistant involved the chatbot responding to voice inputs rather than text.
Tether’s AI ambitions were evident back in 2023 when the firm https://cointelegraph.com/news/tether-acquires-stake-northern-data-ai-collaboration
, which specializes in cloud computing and generative AI.
In March, Tether further https://cointelegraph.com/news/tether-expands-artificial-intelligence-ai-operations-global-recruitment-drive-top-tier-talent
its AI operations with a global recruitment drive for top-tier talent, telling Cointelegraph at the time that it “plans to push the boundaries of AI technology,” and set “new industry standards for innovation and utility.”
In December, Ardoino https://x.com/paoloardoino/status/1870149645776949674
he “just got the draft of the site for Tether’s AI platform,” before adding that the firm was targeting a launch at the end of Q1, 2025.
On Jan. 31, Tether https://cointelegraph.com/news/tether-13-billion-2024-profits-t-bill-holdings-all-time-highs
record-breaking profits of $13 billion in 2024 and revealed having a larger-than-ever stockpile of US government bonds. Tether’s US Treasury portfolio is now worth approximately $113 billion, it stated.
Meanwhile, its stablecoin is the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, which is at an all-time high of $141 billion, following the https://x.com/whale_alert/status/1886823605784240372
of another billion dollars worth on Feb. 5.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 02/06/2025 - 13:25
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/tether-building-ai-apps-open-source-sdk-platform
Trade Wars Bring Pain... And Opportunity
Trade Wars Bring Pain... And Opportunity
https://dailyreckoning.com/trade-wars-bring-pain-and-opportunity/
It’s game on for the trade wars.
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After months of threatening tariffs on U.S. trading partners during his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump has now taken definitive action on that front. On Saturday, February 1, Trump announced that the U.S. was imposing 25% tariffs on all goods imported to the U.S. from Mexico and Canada (with the exception of Canadian energy, which was tariffed at 10%) and additional 10% tariffs on all goods imported from China.
These new Chinese tariffs were on top of tariffs Trump imposed on China in 2018, many of which were left in place during the Biden administration. All of these new tariffs were to take effect on Monday, February 3rd.
Trade Wars Are Heating Up
Canada announced they will retaliate against Trump’s tariffs with 25% on a list of U.S. imports and warned Americans that Trump’s actions would have real consequences for them. Mexico has said it will also impose retaliatory tariffs, without mentioning any rate or products.
Meanwhile, China struck back at the United States by announcing tariffs on select American goods, escalating the trade war. Some U.S. goods imported into China will be subject to tariffs of up to 15%, as they rolled out a series of retaliatory measures to counteract Trump’s planned tariffs.
The new trade wars have now gone global. In addition to the Mexican, Canadian and Chinese tariffs, Trump announced that EU tariffs are coming soon. Trump tentatively indicated that the EU tariffs would be 10% across the board.
Even though there have been concession moves by both Canada and Mexico recently, Trump has only delayed his tariff plans in the negotiations.
But It’s clear that a full-scale global trade war is now underway. And it could be devastating for investors who don’t know how to maneuver through the landmines.
Neighborhood Wars
Canada ($419 billion) and Mexico ($475 billion) account for almost 30% of all goods imported by the United States. Canada, Mexico and China are the three largest trading partners of the U.S.
Obviously, Canada and Mexico are our closest neighbors, and each shares a long border with the U.S. The new trade wars will have many facets, but solving problems with regard to Canada and Mexico will be a big part of the global puzzle and establish benchmarks by which other countries will be judged by the U.S.
The extent of Canadian and Mexican trade with the United States is difficult to overstate. Twenty-three of the fifty states rank Canada as their number one trading partner measured by imports. That includes the entire northern tier of U.S. states from Washington to Maine (with the exceptions of Idaho and Michigan) and most of the Midwest.
Ten of the fifty states rank Mexico as their number one trading partner measured by imports. That includes the entire southern tier of U.S. states (with the exceptions of California and Florida), plus the states of Missouri, Kentucky and Michigan. From automobiles to avocados, Canadian and Mexican imports are everywhere.
Trump cited three reasons for imposing tariffs on Mexico and Canada: illegal immigration, fentanyl and unfair trade practices. The issues of illegal immigration and fentanyl are closely linked because they both involve securing the border.
A bigger issue lurking behind the U.S.-Mexico negotiations is the extent to which Chinese companies have taken over Mexican companies or built their own factories in Mexico to do an end-run around direct tariffs on China.
The Chinese are putting automobile assembly plants in Mexico and exporting the cars to the U.S. free of tariffs under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA, the successor treaty to NAFTA). It may be the case that U.S. auto companies (Ford, GM) will be able to continue bringing in cars to the U.S. without duties while the Chinese-owned companies in Mexico get whacked.
That leaves open the issue of European car makers with plants in Mexico. I spoke to a well-informed source at Audi recently. They’re frantic. They just built a multi-billion-dollar plant in Mexico to do final assembly on the Q5 SUV (their most popular model). They expect that new Mexican tariffs will price it out of the market (compared to Toyotas and Nissans that are built in the USA).
Volkswagen, which owns Audi, may be in financial distress as a result of Audi’s mistake. It was clearly a major blunder on Volkswagen’s part not to locate their Audi factory in Tennessee or South Carolina as other foreign car manufacturers have.
The trade situation with Canada is more problematic.
Even with the one-month delay in imposing tariffs on Canada, the substantive policy issues remain. Trudeau is not in a strong position to negotiate anything because he has already agreed to step down as party leader and Prime Minister. The fight to replace him as party leader is being led by former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, a trade-hawk and neo-fascist sympathizer.
National elections in Canada are scheduled for October 20, 2025, but could be held sooner. The national election could come down to Chrystia Freeland as the Liberal Party Leader and Pierre Poilievre as Conservative Party Leader. Poilievre is far more reasonable on trade issues than Freeland.
The Freeland Plan to fight Trump includes dollar-for-dollar tariff retaliation, an international anti-Trump trade coalition including Mexico, Denmark, Panama and the EU, a ban on purchases of U.S. goods by all Canadian federal government agencies, a ban on American companies bidding on Canadian government contracts, a ban on American firms participating in projects funded by Canada, and support for Canada’s cultural sector against “Donald Trump’s billionaire buddies.”
The even more radical Ottawa Premier Doug Ford has proposed halting Canadian energy exports to the U.S. and “ripping up” Ottawa’s contract with Elon Musk’s Starlink company.
Canadian exports to the U.S. are dominated by energy products (about $165 billion) followed by automobiles and parts (about $83 billion), and consumer goods (about $70 billion). Electronics, food, fish and aircraft make up a relatively small part of the total.
Investors should accustom themselves to continual trade wars and the market volatility that goes with them. But this also means there are profit opportunities as Trump pursues the art of the trade deal.
Why Higher Tariffs?
Trump wants America to enter a “new golden age”. He wants to do that by a revival of the American System. Part of that system was imposing high tariffs on imports to support manufacturing and high-paying jobs in the United States. You can see from the chart below how historically America ran trade surpluses when high tariffs were in place.
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Foreign companies will be free to sell goods to Americans, but only if they are manufactured in the U.S. This will lead to a wave of inbound investment in the U.S., a reduction in U.S. trade deficits, a stronger dollar (as the world demands dollars to invest here), and higher wages for U.S. workers.
Higher wages will raise real incomes, stimulate consumption, decrease income inequality and expand the tax base to help reduce deficits without raising tax rates. Trump’s plan is designed to rebuild American factories, the American economy, and support American workers.
The increase in investment in the U.S. also accelerates the U.S. lead in high technology including semiconductors, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology and quantum computing. China has kept pace in these fields by stealing intellectual property and providing massive government support. Now, the U.S. can pull away from China by importing some of that technology and relying on private investment along with government support.
Contemporary critics of tariffs (basically all mainstream economists) claim that these tariffs will invite retaliation by trading partners and may cause a replay of the collapse of world trade that did occur in the 1930s.
This flawed analysis ignores the initial conditions qualifications described above. China is in the opposite position of the U.S. It produces too much and does not consume enough. China’s best approach would be to lower its tariffs, encourage consumption by its citizens and attempt to strengthen its currency so that its consumers can afford more imported goods.
In fact, we expect China to do the opposite and hunker down in its neo-mercantilist approach by cheapening its currency and attempting to flood the world with more exports.
If China takes the latter approach, it will fail. That won’t be the fault of the United States, it will be China’s own failure. U.S. policy should not be designed to Make China Great Again. That’s China’s job.
U.S. policy is to Make American Great Again. That means high tariffs, lower taxes, more productive investment (including public investment) and high-paying jobs that will support consumption side-by-side with increased investment.
The global tariff and financial wars will feature countries stealing growth from their trading partners. There will be pain but also opportunity. Some sectors will do better than others as this chess match plays out.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 02/06/2025 - 12:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trade-wars-bring-pain-and-opportunity
Treasury Targets Iran's Oil Network In New Sanctions As Trump Stuns By Talking Deal
Treasury Targets Iran's Oil Network In New Sanctions As Trump Stuns By Talking Deal
President Donald Trump has been notoriously hawkish on Iran, as have some of his top national security officials, which is why it was surprising and refreshing for his rhetoric to take a different track in Wednesday statements. Responding to reports that the US and Israel are preparing scenarios to attack Iran and its nuclear sites, Trump stated Wednesday that these reports are "greatly exaggerated" and said that making a deal would be preferable instead.
"I want Iran to be a great and successful Country, but one that cannot have a Nuclear Weapon," the president wrote on Truth Social. "I would much prefer a Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement, which will let Iran peacefully grow and prosper. We should start working on it immediately, and have a big Middle East Celebration when it is signed and completed. God Bless the Middle East!" Trump added.
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During his first administration, Trump unilaterally pulled the United States out of the JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran in 2018, which had been implemented during the Obama administration, and involved the other P5+1 countries of China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, as well as the European Union.
He also dropped a surprise bombshell upon signing the new executive order to reimpose "maximum pressure" on the Islamic Republic, though it's been woefully underreported in the media:
"There are many people at the top ranks of Iran that do not want to have a nuclear weapon," Trump said in the Oval Office.
Still, Trump claimed when he signed it that he was "unhappy" to do it - perhaps revealing it as leverage and part of his big stick approach which can induce a better deal down the road.
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Iran and Mideast regional analyst Trita Parsi commented on how unexpected and significant these words are for a sitting https://responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-iran-executive-order/
:
I cannot recall any U.S. president ever deviating from the quasi-official American line that Tehran is dead set on getting nukes. U.S. officials rarely allow any nuance, or any shades of gray: Iranians always want a nuclear weapon and the only way to stop them from getting one is by preventing them from having access to the necessary material, know-how, or technology. If they have access, they will invariably build a bomb. It’s an unchallengeable certainty.
The 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran caused a major controversy for simply https://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/04/washington/04itext.html
that Iran did not have an active nuclear weapons program, even though it also concluded “with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons.”
That is: Iran still wanted a bomb but appeared to have temporarily paused its pursuit of one.
In the meantime, as of Thursday, maximum pressure has formally gone into effect as the US Treasury implements sanctions on the international Iranian oil transport network.
"This action is consistent with the President’s February 4 National Security Presidential Memorandum directing the Treasury Department and other U.S. government agencies to enact maximum economic pressure on Iran in order to deny all paths to a nuclear weapon and counter Iran’s malign influence," the fresh Treasuring notification said. It announced that this will deprive the country of hundreds of millions of dollars for its military machine.
Trump stuns...
In a rare break from Washington dogma, Trump said what no U.S. president has dared: Some top Iranian leaders do not want a nuclear weapon. A major shift in the narrative that has fueled decades of hawkish policy. https://twitter.com/hashtag/Iran?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— Responsible Statecraft (@RStatecraft) https://twitter.com/RStatecraft/status/1887297658655760693?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Tehran is seeking to rally OPEC to its side after Trump threatened to take Iran's crudel exports https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-says-us-sanctions-will-destabilise-oil-energy-markets-2025-02-05/
:
Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian urged OPEC members to unite against possible U.S. sanctions on the major oil producer, after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would seek to drive Tehran's oil exports to zero.
Iranian crude oil exports currently stand at around 1.5 million barrels per day, with the majority going to China. The loss of such a volume, equal to about 1.4% of total world supply, would be significant for markets.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent further announced the US is aggressively targeting Iranian efforts to use oil revenues to bolster its nuclear program, develop ballistic missiles, and support its terror proxies. Will this serve to bring Tehran and the Trump administration to the negotiating table? It looks calculated to do so, at least.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 02/06/2025 - 11:45
Too Many Politico Subscriptions? There's An App For That
Too Many Politico Subscriptions? There's An App For That
The federal government has spent $44.2 million on subscriptions to political news site POLITICO since 2017. That includes dozens of Executive Branch agencies as well as offices in the House of Representatives.
There’s an app for people who’ve lost track of how many subscriptions. For government, though, that app is DOGE!
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BY THE NUMBERS
The dollar figure includes $32.3 million in spending from inside the White House and $11.9 million from staffers in the House of Representatives.
Despite the online buzz, our auditors did not find any evidence of federal grants given to the news outlet. The only direct assistance the government has sent to Politico was a https://www.usaspending.gov/award/ASST_NON_EIDLGT%3A3300989183_7300
Covid-19 relief grant from 2020.
Virtually all of the payments are, in fact, subscription fees!
Donald Trump’s White House spent just over $1 million on Politico in 2017, his first year as president. By 2020 subscription payments had increased to $2.8 million.
Then, payments increased dramatically once Joe Biden took office. The White House spent $4.4 million on Politico subscriptions in 2021. Payments reached a high of $7.8 million in 2023 and totaled $7.4 million in 2024.
It seems no one in the federal bureaucracy thought to share their password with their colleagues in other agencies. Thirty-eight different federal agencies and subagencies have sent payments to Politico since 2017.
The Department of Health and Human Services spent more than twice as much as any other federal agency with $6.9 million since 2017. The Department of Energy and Department of the Interior also spent more than $3 million in the same time frame. The Agency for International Development spent $44,000.
One might expect that federal bureaucrats are leading experts on government policy and public affairs, more so than journalists at Politico. That may not be the case.
INSIDER INFO
The White House is paying to get behind an even fancier paywall – access to Politico Pro. It’s a service meant to teach the public about what is happening inside the White House, but staffers there have spent $16 million on it since 2017. Thirty-one different agencies and subagencies have also subscribed.
The subscription rate for the Pro version has reached nearly $3,000 per person: a $140,203 payment from HHS in 2024 yielded only 49 subscriptions.
“Whether you’re a lobbyist, executive, consultant, researcher, strategist, or analyst, POLITICO Pro has what you need to power successful policy—anywhere,” the service’s https://www.politicopro.com/
explains. “POLITICO Pro gives you the inside scoop on the public policy and players that matter most to you. Stay informed and ahead with to-the-point news and automatic tracking of government affairs and policy. Keep pace with the help of experts who act as an extension of your team. With this kind of elite access, you can be a leader in your policy arena.”
BOTTOM LINEThe public is broadly skeptical of national media outlets, distrustful of their reporting and presumes an ideological bent to their coverage. Like most major outlets, POLITICO has its fans and partisans.
But why should the public be on the hook to pay the subscription fee for operatives, staffers and bureacrats somewhere in Washington? We deal with enough paywalls in our own lives. Why are we propping up mainstream media outlets – private, for-profit businesses -- with our own tax dollars?
It looks like DOGE is already on the case, but it comes after the better part of a decade of subscription spending.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 02/06/2025 - 11:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/too-many-politico-subscriptions-theres-app
Bessent-ing The Facts Of Life
Bessent-ing The Facts Of Life
By Michael Every of Rabobank
As the whirlwind of the US political, geopolitical, and geoeconomic (counter?) revolution plays out, it’s getting harder for even the most committed bean counter and econometricians to ignore.
Secretary of State Rubio will not be attending the upcoming G20 in South Africa to protest its policies. It remains to be seen if the G20 now joins the growing list of acronymic institutions that the US no longer has time for. If the latter, how long until we get to the holy of holies, the IMF? After all, is there any US strategic logic in supporting a multilateral institution whose neoliberal economic policies have been largely opposed to its own for the last eight years, and which will be even more counter to its stance for the next four?
The prospect of the US ‘owning’ Gaza has been floated, then sunk by all other parties, yet the US says this a starting point for new thinking, challenging others to come up with ideas that must, by design, shake things up. There’s not any oil involved here, but the key Suez Canal is very close, and the ‘if lines on maps can move --and peoples-- so can lines on screens’ and “This is America too” elements are worth noting for those who think about volatility and term premia.
President Trump is also again talking about a deal with Iran if it will drop its potentially accelerated efforts to build a nuclear bomb and work with the US. So far, the track record in flipping members of the Axis of Resistance to Team Trump is poor, and the threat of being “smashed to smithereens” is still out there, even if markets once again jumped on the ‘Trump is all about the deal, not dealing with things’ bandwagon.
Panama now allows the US Navy to use its Canal for free, may cancel the contracts of the Hong Kong firm operating the ports of Balboa and Cristobal at either end, and has agreed to “safeguard the canal” and “increase military collaboration” with the US. Guess which of the two will be sending more collaborating forces to the other? Defence Secretary Hegseth also stressed the US commitment to its mutual defence pact with the Philippines and offered increased defence aid to it - which will not please China.
Major US tech firms with one foot in the US and the other in China seem on the shakiest of ground; that’s as the US postal service has reinstated parcel service from China and Hong Kong after briefly suspending it, a warning to those assuming goods must flow.
Of course, there are also tariffs, which bean counters and econometricians understand ‘best’. As one headline has it, ‘https://public-eur.mkt.dynamics.com/api/orgs/285245b1-7c6f-ef11-a66d-000d3a4b6c6a/r/K1geTFnCtUiHk2nIvtmF7AAAAAA?target=%7B%22TargetUrl%22%3A%22https%253A%252F%252Fwww.msn.com%252Fen-us%252Fmoney%252Fmarkets%252Fchicago-fed-s-goolsbee-shifts-from-dove-to-hawk-says-tariffs-impact-on-inflation-might-be-much-larger-this-time%252Far-AA1yufqE%253Focid%253DBingNewsSerp%22%2C%22RedirectOptions%22%3A%7B%225%22%3Anull%2C%221%22%3Anull%2C%222%22%3A%7B%22utm_medium%22%3A%22email%22%2C%22utm_term%22%3A%22N%2FA%22%2C%22utm_source%22%3A%22dynamics-rr%22%2C%22utm_campaign%22%3A%221%22%7D%7D%7D&digest=faIt2UZu7hN9rX%2FdwFpkOFc26ucrfZ6ZnN5xAF%2BuKRo%3D&secretVersion=7c13c22c20aa46a1b2fc8b71fde4d19a
’
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Bessent says US tariffs will be back (not just vs Canada, Mexico, and China): the long game globally is “to squeeze trading partners now to create a self-sufficient industrial base later.” ‘Goolsbees’ will have to get buzzy with that in their modelling from now on, as will market observers bravely saying, “Trump is a trade paper tiger.” Indeed, India is already sending out signals that https://public-eur.mkt.dynamics.com/api/orgs/285245b1-7c6f-ef11-a66d-000d3a4b6c6a/r/K1geTFnCtUiHk2nIvtmF7AEAAAA?target=%7B%22TargetUrl%22%3A%22https%253A%252F%252Fwww.bloomberg.com%252Fopinion%252Farticles%252F2025-02-05%252Ftrade-war-india-cheered-trump-s-return-now-it-s-scared%22%2C%22RedirectOptions%22%3A%7B%225%22%3Anull%2C%221%22%3Anull%2C%222%22%3A%7B%22utm_medium%22%3A%22email%22%2C%22utm_term%22%3A%22N%2FA%22%2C%22utm_source%22%3A%22dynamics-rr%22%2C%22utm_campaign%22%3A%221%22%7D%7D%7D&digest=IzZijt4zKuiaEC1pWFvf9vTg%2BpXCCZKCS91qNEGRTHE%3D&secretVersion=7c13c22c20aa46a1b2fc8b71fde4d19a
, happy to yield that metaphorical crown in the hope of some upcoming noblesse oblige on trade from the White House – an outcome which may depend on geopolitics as much as comparative advantage.
Bessent then ‘clarified’ that President Trump is not leaning on the Fed to lower rates – he would just like to see them lowered. See the difference? More importantly, the key focus is not Fed Funds but the US 10-year yield. So, Treasury ‘focus’, not an official target. See the difference?
Notably, Bessent thinks 10-year yields can decline as a result of his “3, 3, 3” economic policy targets – 3% real GDP growth, a 3% fiscal deficit, and a 3m barrels per day (bpd) increase in oil production. Yet they are not going to be possible without economic statecraft. To join the dots for you here:
A 3% fiscal deficit might see some inroads made by DOGE’s ferreting efforts and the 1% voluntary shrinkage in the federal civil service already achieved, but with permanent tax cuts also lobbied for by Bessent --and a 15% corporate tax rate by the president-- it would need a lot of new revenue from tariffs, which he also floated;
A 3% rate of real GDP growth needs help from the Fed and the long end of the curve, which won’t do so voluntarily while they worry about tariff inflation;
The 3m bpd US oil equivalent increase won’t happen via market forces, even if https://public-eur.mkt.dynamics.com/api/orgs/285245b1-7c6f-ef11-a66d-000d3a4b6c6a/r/K1geTFnCtUiHk2nIvtmF7AIAAAA?target=%7B%22TargetUrl%22%3A%22https%253A%252F%252Fwww.reuters.com%252Fbusiness%252Fenergy%252Fus-energy-secretary-derides-net-zero-policies-new-order-2025-02-06%252F%22%2C%22RedirectOptions%22%3A%7B%225%22%3Anull%2C%221%22%3Anull%2C%222%22%3A%7B%22utm_medium%22%3A%22email%22%2C%22utm_term%22%3A%22N%2FA%22%2C%22utm_source%22%3A%22dynamics-rr%22%2C%22utm_campaign%22%3A%221%22%7D%7D%7D&digest=RtFMXCMFEjMa55npbHQ4bg3rg84CXiY%2FPF%2BtYgWpYNw%3D&secretVersion=7c13c22c20aa46a1b2fc8b71fde4d19a
just announced "Net-zero policies raise energy costs for American families and businesses, threaten the reliability of our energy system, and undermine our energy and national security… the Department's goal will be to unleash the great abundance of American energy required to power modern life and to achieve a durable state of American energy dominance." While our energy analyst Joe DeLaura expects oil prices to drift lower, to get cheap oil the US may have to use the Defence Production Act to force firms to “Drill, baby, drill”; or subsidies – paid for by tariffs(?); or get help from Venezuela --not in the US camp-- or Iran --under “maximum pressure”-- or Saudi Arabia, who at current oil prices already can’t afford their megaprojects like the first (and last?) linear city, Neom.
One perhaps starts to see how the Middle East, and the Americas and the US Monroe Doctrine, and White House economic, political, and even military statecraft are all in the complex mix here. Or perhaps once doesn’t and just counts beans. But it’s all going to play out anyway.
On which note, gold continues to flood out of the Bank of England’s vaults, as the French government survived a no-confidence vote, avoiding chaos. https://public-eur.mkt.dynamics.com/api/orgs/285245b1-7c6f-ef11-a66d-000d3a4b6c6a/r/K1geTFnCtUiHk2nIvtmF7AMAAAA?target=%7B%22TargetUrl%22%3A%22https%253A%252F%252Fwww.politico.eu%252Farticle%252Fchinas-online-shopping-boom-gets-eu-crackdown%252F%22%2C%22RedirectOptions%22%3A%7B%225%22%3Anull%2C%221%22%3Anull%2C%222%22%3A%7B%22utm_medium%22%3A%22email%22%2C%22utm_term%22%3A%22N%2FA%22%2C%22utm_source%22%3A%22dynamics-rr%22%2C%22utm_campaign%22%3A%221%22%7D%7D%7D&digest=kPk1rmm8mFlYWc1pJBpSOBprcALbN3wwzhjKILzaYMU%3D&secretVersion=7c13c22c20aa46a1b2fc8b71fde4d19a
’ underlines that in key respects Europe is centuries behind the US, which doesn’t help with its statecraft, and hence its economic policy targets or competitiveness compasses, in any shape or form.
Elsewhere, the BOJ’s Tamura today, the bank’s most hawkish member, suggested there could be two or more 25bps rate hikes in the fiscal year starting in April, and that the BOJ’s key rate should be back at 1% by H2 2025. Obviously, this pushed JPY higher.
It will be interesting to see if/how Washington, D.C. and Tokyo, and the BOJ and the Fed, can coordinate not just their monetary policies but their statecraft together going forwards. Markets will need to know the same if even they don’t focus on that bigger picture.
The same is of course also true for D.C. and London and Mexico City, and the Fed and the BOE and the Bank of Mexico, both of which meet on rates today.
There are lots of uncomfortable thoughts in all this for some: but I am just Bessent-ing the facts of life.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 02/06/2025 - 10:40
Judge Blocks Trump's Order To Transfer Men Who Identify As Women To Male Prisons
Judge Blocks Trump's Order To Transfer Men Who Identify As Women To Male Prisons
A judge this week temporarily blocked President Donald Trump’s executive order, which mandated that transgender inmates who identify as women be housed in male prisons and that the government cease funding their access to hormone therapy.
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U.S. District Judge Royce Lamberth in Washington granted the temporary restraining order at the request of three anonymous transgender inmates who filed a https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.276959/gov.uscourts.dcd.276959.1.0_1.pdf
.
Lamberth found the three would likely succeed in arguing the order violates the Eighth Amendment’s protections against cruel and unusual punishment.
titled “Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government,” requires the attorney general and the Homeland Security secretary to ensure that “males are not detained in women’s prisons or housed in women’s detention centers.”
The order states that the attorney general must ensure the Bureau of Prisons (BOP) revises its medical care policies so that federal funds aren’t spent on “any medical procedure, treatment, or drug for the purpose of conforming an inmate’s appearance to that of the opposite sex.” It also states that it is the policy of the United States to recognize two sexes only: male and female.
“These sexes are not changeable and are grounded in fundamental and incontrovertible reality,” the order states.
Lamberth said that the plaintiffs in the Washington case presented evidence, including various government reports and regulations, recognizing that transgender inmates are at “a significantly elevated risk of physical and sexual violence relative to other inmates” when housed in a facility corresponding to their biological sex, the judge wrote in his https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.276959/gov.uscourts.dcd.276959.23.0.pdf
.
The plaintiffs also claim that being in a male prison alone will exacerbate the symptoms of their gender dysphoria.
The inmates also presented evidence from a physician explaining that having no access to medications to treat gender dysphoria could cause “numerous and severe symptoms,” Lamberth wrote.
“It is, of course, possible that further briefing of the constitutional issues at the center of this dispute, or factual discovery, will eventually yield a different outcome,” Lamberth concluded.
“But the plaintiffs, through their largely undisputed factual allegations and proffered affidavits, have met their burden to show a likelihood of success on the merits.”
Lamberth declined to reach a verdict regarding the inmates’ other arguments that the order violates the Administrative Procedure Act and the Constitution’s equal protection guarantee.
The Department of Justice (DOJ) has defended the order by arguing that it has broad authority to make decisions regarding the placement of inmates and an interest in protecting inmates’ privacy and security.
Lamberth dismissed that claim, however, writing in his order that public interest in seeing the plaintiffs relocated immediately to male facilities is “slight at best.”
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President Donald Trump signs executive orders in the Oval Office of the White House on Jan. 20, 2025. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
Lamberth’s order comes after a federal judge in Boston last week https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/judge-blocks-transfer-of-man-who-identifies-as-woman-to-mens-prison-5802030
from transferring a biologically male inmate who identifies as a woman to a men’s facility. In that case, the ruling only applied to the specific inmate who had challenged Trump’s executive order.
In contrast, Tuesday’s ruling in Washington applies to all 16 transgender inmates identifying as women currently housed in federal women’s prisons.
About 2,230 transgender inmates are housed in federal custodial facilities and halfway houses across the United States, according to the DOJ. About two-thirds of them, 1,506, are biological males who identify as females; the majority of whom are housed in men’s prisons.
The Epoch Times has contacted the DOJ and the Bureau of Prisons for comment.
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Thu, 02/06/2025 - 10:05
Roblox Shares Plunge On Active Users Miss As Growth Scare Emerges
Roblox Shares Plunge On Active Users Miss As Growth Scare Emerges
Roblox Corporation reported daily active user data that fell short of analyst estimates tracked by Bloomberg, raising concerns over the platform's growth trajectory and sending shares crashing in premarket trading.
The number of daily active users on Roblox increased to 85.3 million in the fourth quarter, missing the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of 88.39 million. Bookings during the quarter slightly missed $1.36 billion versus the $1.37 billion estimate.
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Here's a snapshot of the fourth quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Daily active users 85.3 million, estimate 88.39 million (Bloomberg Consensus)
Hours engaged 73.5 billion, estimate 19.42 billion
Bookings $1.36 billion, estimate $1.37 billion
Revenue $988.2 million, estimate $967.2 million
Loss per share 33c
Free cash flow $120.6 million, estimate $120.8 million
Cash and cash equivalents $711.7 million, estimate $672.3 million
Roblox provided a lackluster outlook for the first quarter and full year, as growth in the online video game platform appears to be slowing. Meanwhile, the video game industry has been in a downturn.
First quarter forecast:
Sees bookings $1.13 billion to $1.15 billion, estimate $1.1 billion
Sees revenue $990 million to $1.02 billion, estimate $981.3 million
Sees consolidated net loss $267 million to $287 million, estimate loss $271.2 million
Full-year forecast:
Sees bookings $5.20 billion to $5.30 billion, estimate $5.1 billion
Sees revenue $4.25 billion to $4.35 billion, estimate $4.36 billion
Sees consolidated net loss $995 million to $1.07 billion, estimate loss $972.3 million
Sees adjusted Ebitda $190 million to $265 million, estimate $1.03 billion
Roblox shares in New York crashed 18% in premarket trading.
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Outgoing CFO Michael Guthrie told Reuters that Roblox's outlook suggests a third consecutive year of 20% booking growth, even as competitor platforms experience slowdowns.
"We're growing at a substantial premium to the overall gaming market. Right now, gaming is barely growing as a category," Guthrie said.
Guthrie attributed the weaker growth to very tough year-over-year comparisons, noting that Roblox's launch on Sony's PlayStation consoles in 2023 sent new sign-ups higher. He added that the platform's suspension in Turkey over safety and child protection concerns hampered growth.
Short sellers have made claims the platform aimed at kids hasn't done enough to https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pedophile-hellscape-roblox-shares-tank-after-hindenburg-alleges-inflated-metrics-rampant
.
Meanwhile, a note from research firm Newzoo showed that the US video game industry is in slug mode, having only grown by 2.1% in 2024.
Last month, video gaming analyst Matthew Ball of Epyllion pointed out how the gaming industry has been in a https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/grand-theft-auto-6-priced-100-gaming-analyst-believes-so
developers and publishers, but new "hopes" center around Rockstar Games' guaranteed mega-hit Grand Theft Auto 6 release this fall that "could re-establish packed video game prices after decades of deflation despite rampant cost growth."
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 02/06/2025 - 09:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/roblox-shares-plunge-active-users-miss-growth-scare-emerges
Pound Tumbles After Bank of England Cuts Rates While Warning Of Mounting Stagflation; Two Officials Vote For Bigger Cut
Pound Tumbles After Bank of England Cuts Rates While Warning Of Mounting Stagflation; Two Officials Vote For Bigger Cut
While the Fed engages in navel-gazing how much Trump's tariffs will raise inflation by, and according to Goldman the answer is by a https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-happens-next-trade-war-goldmans-deep-dive-trumps-tariffs
(from 2.1% in the absence of tariffs)...
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... the rest of the world continues to quietly stimulate its economies by injecting more reflationary liquidity into the system, and this morning the Bank of England was the latest to do so when it not only cut rates for the third consecutive time by 0.25% to a 19-month low of 4.5%, as expected...
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... but in a surprise to the market, two of the nine MPC members voted for a bigger, 50bps rate cut, which in turn prompted markets to boost bets on more easing ignoring the BOE's own phrasing.
The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 7-2 to reduce https://twitter.com/hashtag/BankRate?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
to 4.5%.
Find out more in our https://twitter.com/hashtag/MonetaryPolicyReport?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— Bank of England (@bankofengland) https://twitter.com/bankofengland/status/1887471598224974292?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
There was another twist: in a blow to UK chancellor Rachel Reeves, the BoE slashed its growth forecast saying it now expected the economy to grow by only 0.75% this year, half its November forecast of 1.5% which, would at least justify the rate cut...
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... but the BOE also upgraded its inflation forecast, which now peaks at 3.7% because of higher energy prices, and up from the prior projection of 2.8%. In other words, the UK is now in a stagflationary trap, yet in a world where no more pain can be tolerated the central bank's obvious reaction was to cut rates more.
The bank’s outlook is a bleak backdrop for Reeves, who has presided over a collapse in growth since Labour won the general election last July. The BOE believes the economy contracted 0.1% in the three months to December, the quarter that included Reeves’ tax-raising budget on Oct. 30, and will grow just 0.1% in the first quarter of 2025.
The growth forecast for this year has been halved to 0.75% but picks up to 1.5% in 2026 and 2027, from the prior projection of 1.25% in both years. The bank said its forecast is “not conditional on any change in global tariffs” but that a trade war could depress UK growth by “delaying investment spending and hiring decisions.”
Amid this cacaphony of swirling outlooks, it is no surprise that the MPC signaled a “gradual and careful approach” to future rate cuts, warning of uncertainty due to, what else, Trump tariffs and suggesting in their forecasts that only two more reductions were needed to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
The addition of the word “careful” to the bank’s core guidance for future easing reflected questions about the global economy, according to Bailey. “We live in an uncertain world, and the road ahead will have bumps,” he said.
“Some domestic inflationary pressures remain and may have eased a little more slowly than we expected last year,” Bailey told reporters after the decision. “And that reaffirms the importance of taking a gradual approach to the withdrawal of monetary policy restrictiveness.”
Despite Bailey's cautious languages, traders focused on the calls from two policymakers for a sharper reduction, adding to bets on future interest-rate cuts. Money markets are now favoring three more 25-basis-point reductions this year.
That hurt the pound, which extended declines versus the dollar dropping as much as 1.2% to $1.2361. It was the worst-performer among major currencies on Thursday. Two-year gilt yields fell as much as seven basis to 4.07%.
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In response to the rate cut, Matthew Landon, strategist at JP Morgan Private Bank said that "at the margin, we interpret this is a green light for the market to price a lower terminal rate." He added that "today’s cut from the Bank of England was broadly expected, though the accompanying statement contained some mixed signals.”
The MPC’s decision to reduce its rate to the lowest level since June 2023 represents a reprieve for the more-than-half-a-million homeowners coming off five-year fixed mortgage deals this year. Reeves called the decision “welcome news,” but expressed disappointment with the broader outlook provided by the bank saying she was “still not satisfied with the growth rate.”
Rob Wood, chief UK economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, said he placed “more weight” on the bank’s hawkish inflation forecasts, a relatively strong pay settlements survey and its overall guidance “than the votes of two outliers.”
Bailey seemed to support that view in remarks to reporters after the decision: “I would not overinterpret any other moves in voting patterns,” he said, adding that “it’s important that the view on the future path of interest rates is based on the economic fundamentals.”
Also behind the change was a downgrade to the bank’s estimate of UK growth capacity, which makes faster growth inflationary. It halved its estimate to 0.75% this year but expects potential growth to return to 1.5% from 2026. The bank blamed the downgrade on persistently weak productivity and suggested Labour’s increased spending on the National Health Service may make the position worse.
There were no material changes to the bank’s forecasts following Reeves’ recently announced plans to boost growth by relaxing regulations and waving through infrastructure projects.
“It is hard to see the Bank of England materially stepping up its pace of easing until it sees how the increase in National Insurance is digested by the economy in the spring,” said Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief Economist at Abrdn. “However, the Bank’s signals today suggest there is scope for several more rate cuts this year, given the weak growth outlook, and we continue to see rates below 3% over the next two years.”
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 02/06/2025 - 09:15
Initial Jobless Claims Tick Higher Off Multi-Decade Lows
Initial Jobless Claims Tick Higher Off Multi-Decade Lows
Initial jobless claims rose very marginally off near multi-decade lows last week (from 208k to 219k) and slightly higher than the 213k expected...
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Source: Bloomberg
Continuing claims continue to oscillate around 1.9 million Americans (decoupling from initial claims stronger trend)...
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Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we can't but notice this jobless claims data series seems decoupled from various other labor market realities still... such as The Conference Board's Jobs-Plentiful/Hard-to-Get series...
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Source: Bloomberg
So, strong ADP, strong jobless claims, weak JOLTS, weak Conf Board... tomorrow's NFP is anyone's guess still!
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 02/06/2025 - 08:35
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/initial-jobless-claims-tick-higher-multi-decade-lows
Futures Fluctuate Amid Disappointing Earnings As Dollar, Yields Rise
Futures Fluctuate Amid Disappointing Earnings As Dollar, Yields Rise
US equity futures are slightly higher despite heavyweights such as including Ford and Qualcomm slumping in premarket trading after disappointing earnings while tech underperformed on mixed Mag7/Semis pre-mkt price action. As of 8:15am, S&P 500 futures were little changed after erasing an early gain fueled by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comment that the Trump administration is focusing on bringing down the Treasury 10-year yield. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were unchanged. Bond yields and the USD finally reverse recent losses and rise this morning while commodities are stronger across all of Ags, Energy, and Metals ex-Precious. Scott Bessent said that the Administration is focused on lowering the 10Y yield rather than the Fed Funds rates; the best way to decrease yields is through a lower budget deficit. In other news, HON is splitting into 3 companies. Today’s macro focus is on Jobless data and the BOE decision. The Fed speaker slate includes Waller (2:30pm) and Logan (5:10pm), and we get earnings from Amazon after the close.
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In premarket trading, Qualcomm, the world’s biggest seller of smartphone processors, fell more than 5% on investor concern that demand for the devices will cool. Ford also tumbled more than 6% after warning that US tariffs would weigh on US carmakers’ profits. Skyworks Solutions, a chip supplier to Apple Inc., plunged more than 20% after saying competition in the industry is intensifying. Apple shares also retreated. Meanwhile, Honeywell International Inc. slid more than 5% after saying it will split into separate publicly traded companies following pressure from an activist investor. here are all the notable premarket movers:
Apple (AAPL) edges 0.5% lower after disappointing updates and smartphone commentary from two of its key suppliers, including Qualcomm and Skyworks.
Arm Holdings (ARM) slips 3% after the chip-design company provided a tepid outlook, underlining concerns about the pace of spending on AI.
Bausch + Lomb Corp. (BHC) declines 4% after the eye-health company said it won’t go private at this time.
Bristol Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) slips 3% after releasing sales and profit forecasts for 2025 below Wall Street’s expectations — a sign the company’s return to growth may take longer than anticipated.
Chinese stocks listed in the US are broadly higher as analysts say Beijing’s retaliatation to Donald Trump’s tariffs is relatively measured and appears to be aimed at increasing its bargaining power at trade talks. Alibaba (BABA) +1.5%, Nio (NIO) +1%, PDD (PDD) +1%
Coherent (COHR) rises 13% after the semiconductor device company reported results and guidance ahead of expectations.
FormFactor (FORM) a provider of test and measurement equipment designed for chipmakers, drops 25% after providing a 1Q profit forecast that’s well short of estimates.
Impinj (PI) sinks 21% after forecasting first quarter revenue that trailed the average analyst estimate.
Molina (MOH) falls 5% after the managed-care company reported quarterly adjusted earnings per share that fell below Wall Street expectations.
Peloton Interactive Inc. (PTON) rises 13% after reporting that cost cuts have bolstered profit more than anticipated, even as its revenue continues to shrink.
Qualcomm (QCOM) falls 4% amid investor concerns that demand for new smartphones will cool in 2025. Analysts, however, note that the results for the first quarter were positive.
Salesforce (CRM) slips 1% after the software company announced management changes. It created a new role naming its lead board director, Robin Washington, as president and chief operating and financial officer (COFO), effective March 21.
Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) plunges 30% after the semiconductor device company reported its first-quarter results and outlook.
Symbotic (SYM) slides 17% after the factory automation technology company gave guidance that missed the average analyst estimate.
Tapestry Inc. (TPR) rises 14% after the company raised its guidance again for the year on stronger-than-expected sales at its biggest brand Coach.
Tesla (TSLA) is set to extend losses, falling 1.6%, after sales plummeted 59% last month in Germany, adding to indications that Elon Musk’s political activities are hurting the carmaker’s business in major EV markets.
TTM Tech (TTMI) rises 17% after first-quarter forecasts for adjusted EPS and revenue topped the average analyst estimates at the midpoints.
Under Armour (UAA) climbs 9% after the company raised its annual profit guidance, signaling that its turnaround strategy is working.
Yum! Brands (YUM) rises about 2% as sales surpassed expectations, powered by growth at Taco Bell as the fast-food chain continues to sidestep a slowdown that has plagued many competitors.
In an interview on Fox Business, Bessent said that when it comes to the Federal Reserve, “I will only talk about what they’ve done, not what I think they should do from now on.” He repeated his view that expanding energy supply will help lower inflation. But some investors said 10-year yields are unlikely to go much lower while sticky prices and a resilient economy damp expectations of further Fed policy easing.
The 10-year Treasury yield ticked about two basis points higher on Thursday, though it’s still close to a one-month low. “It is difficult to see the 10-year yield come down a lot unless the economy slows significantly,“ said David Zahn, a senior vice president at Franklin Templeton Investment Management. “If that happens, which isn’t what they want, then I can see 10-year yields going lower.”
While there was some news relief out of the White House, which did not make any major announcements overnight, more earnings are expected today, with Amazon.com Inc. due to release results after the close. US data on jobless claims will also on traders’ radar today, with the payrolls report due tomorrow.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 benchmark rose 0.8% to an intraday record after another batch of solid corporate updates from the region. Health care and banks are among the best performing sectors after strong results from AstraZeneca and Societe Generale. A. P. Moller-Maersk A/S surged almost 9% after announcing a $2 billion buyback. Miners are leading gains as iron ore prices climb over 2%. UK stocks outperformed and the pound fell after the Bank of England cut interest rates, as expected, and traders added to bets on further easing. In economic news, German factory orders surged in December, adding to evidence that the outlook for the beleaguered sector may be improving. Here are the most notable European movers:
European miners rise after positive earnings from companies including Anglo American, Boliden and ArcelorMittal. Prices for iron ore and base metals also climbed on expectations of a Chinese demand recovery following Lunar New Year holidays
Societe Generale shares jumped as much as 10% after the French lender reported what analysts say are good results that help confirm the recovery in French retail banking
AstraZeneca shares rose as much as 5.6%, the most since April, after the drugmaker reported better-than-expected core EPS and revenue for the fourth quarter, and provided guidance for 2025
Siemens Healthineers shares jumped as much as 7.7%, to the highest since March 2022, after the German medical technology company reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the first quarter
ArcelorMittal shares rose as much 6.7%, to the highest intraday since April, after the world’s biggest steelmaker outside China reported Ebitda for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate
Maersk shares gained as much as 11%, the most since March 2020, after the Danish shipping giant’s fourth-quarter results beat estimates. The announcement of a buyback program worth as much as $2 billion is positive, Barclays said
Orsted shares gained as much as 7.9%, the most since October, after the Danish offshore wind giant cut its investment plans by 25%
ING Groep NV declined as much as 4.2% after the lender missed 4Q profit estimates on higher costs, while net interest income declined 5% from a year earlier as lower policy rates weighed
Soitec shares slumped as much as 32%, to the lowest since March 2020, after the wafer maker reduced its outlook for fiscal 2025 and said growth for fiscal 2026 will be “quite limited”
IMI shares dropped as much as 2.7% after the engineering company said it is currently responding to a cyber security incident involving unauthorized access to the company’s systems
Kering shares fell as much as 3.8% after the luxury-goods maker said it’s ending its collaboration with Sabato de Sarno, the creative director of its Gucci label
Earlier in the session, Asian equities rose, on track for a third day of gains, boosted by technology shares as a sense of calm returned after gyrations earlier in the week on global trade tensions. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 0.4% Thursday to the highest since December 17. Tech firms TSMC and Samsung Electronics were among the top contributors after their customer Nvidia jumped 5% on positive news for its new Blackwell chip. BYD also led the region higher after Cailianshe reported the Chinese carmaker will hold an event Monday to introduce its smart-driving strategy. Chinese equities rebounded from Wednesday’s losses on tariff concerns. Tech shares tied to AI and robotics climbed amid continued optimism on industry developments, even as e-commerce stocks remained weak on concerns over regulations for shipments to the US.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.3% and the Japanese yen is flat having pared an earlier advance seen after BOJ board member Naoki Tamura flagged the need for two or more interest rate hikes by early next year.
In rates, treasuries are slightly cheaper on the day into early US session, having pared small declines amid UK bond rally. Gilts outperform after Bank of England cut rates by 25bp to 4.5% in a 7-2 vote, with dissenters favoring a half-point cut. US session includes weekly jobless claims data at 8:30am New York time. US yields are as much as 2bp higher across maturities, with curve spreads mostly holding Wednesday’s dramatic flattening move; 10-year around 4.44% is ~2bp cheaper on the day, trailing bunds and gilts in the sector by 1bp and 4bp. Gilts shook off early weakness to outperform their US and German peers, most notably at the short-end of the curve ahead of the Bank of England decision. UK two-year yields fall ~3 bps to 4.12%. The pound is also the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.7% against the greenback having extended the lows after UK construction PMI came in notably below estimates. US and German borrowing costs are slightly higher on the day.
In commodities, WTI rises 1% to $71.70 a barrel. Spot gold falls $6 to around $2,860/oz. Bitcoin climbs 2% to near $99,000.
Looking to the day ahead now, one of the main highlights was the Bank of England’s policy decision where the central bank cut rates by 25bps as expected and left space for more rate cuts, sending the pound tumbling. Central bank speakers will include BoE Governor Bailey, BoC Governor Macklem, the ECB’s Nagel and Escriva, and the Fed’s Waller and Logan. Otherwise, data releases include the weekly initial jobless claims from the US, Euro Area retail sales for December and German factory orders for December. Finally, earnings releases include Amazon.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 6,101.50
MXAP up 0.2% to 184.67
MXAPJ up 0.5% to 579.21
Nikkei up 0.6% to 39,066.53
Topix up 0.2% to 2,752.20
Hang Seng Index up 1.4% to 20,891.62
Shanghai Composite up 1.3% to 3,270.66
Sensex down 0.3% to 78,050.59
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.2% to 8,520.71
Kospi up 1.1% to 2,536.75
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 542.63
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.39%
Euro down 0.4% to $1.0363
Brent Futures up 0.6% to $75.04/bbl
Gold spot down 0.3% to $2,857.93
US Dollar Index up 0.38% to 107.99
Top Overnight News
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business that the Trump administration wants to make the 2017 tax cut permanent, and added that Trump wants lower interest rates and is focused on the 10-year treasury yield. Furthermore, he said Trump is not calling for the Fed to lower interest rates and interest rates will take care of themselves if they get energy costs down and deregulate economy. He gave no indication he was in favor of direct intervention. BBG
US government vessels will now be able to transit the Panama Canal without charge fees, according to the State Department, which added it’ll save “millions of dollars a year.” BBG
The Trump administration’s offer to buy out federal employees is said to have attracted over 40,000 sign-ups, about 2% of the workforce. It expects more applications by the end of the day deadline. BBG
US lawmakers are reportedly pushing to ban Chinese AI start-up's DeepSeek app from US government devices over security concerns, according to WSJ sources.
US President Trump's USTR nominee Greer says US needs an active and pragmatic trade policy to foster growth; resilient supply chains are critical; US needs robust manufacturing base.
Honeywell International is preparing to split into three independent companies, marking the end of an era for one of America’s last big industrial conglomerates. Honeywell announced Thursday plans to separate its aerospace division from its automation business and move ahead with plans to spin off its advanced-materials arm. WSJ
Fed's Jefferson (voter) said they need to look at the totality of the net effect of the Trump administration's influence on policy goals and he is happy to keep policy at the current level of restrictiveness until there is a better sense of the totality of impacts. Jefferson also stated that even with a 100bps decline, the Fed's rate is still restrictive, which allows the Fed to be patient and wait to see the net effect of policy changes.
Fed released 2025 stress test scenarios which include heightened stress in commercial and residential real estate, as well as corporate debt markets.
Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Trump administration wants to make the 2017 tax cut permanent, while he added that Trump wants lower interest rates and is focused on the 10-year treasury yield. Furthermore, he said Trump is not calling for the Fed to lower interest rates and interest rates will take care of themselves if they get energy costs down and deregulate economy.
Naoki Tamura of the BOJs policy board on Thursday called for potentially faster interest-rate increases, sending the yen to its strongest level against the dollar in eight weeks. He stated said that the central bank should raise rates to 1% or higher in the fiscal half starting in October and that that level is likely consistent with a neutral rate setting that is neither restrictive nor stimulating for the economy. WSJ
Japan has “completely” ended deflation and it’s natural for the central bank to proceed with rate hikes to normalize policy, according to former BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. BBG
The UK’s SONIA rose for five sessions through Tuesday — the first consecutive gains since April — reflecting the BOE’s ongoing efforts to drain excess liquidity from the financial system.
The BOE cut rates by 25 bps to 4.5% today as expected. The big surprise was that two members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for 50 basis point cut. BOE’s Bailey confirmed taking ‘gradual and careful’ approach to cuts. BBG
Manufacturing orders in Germany rose in December on the back of aerospace orders, although any tentative signs of a recovery for the struggling industrial sector face the imminent threat of tariffs from the U.S. German factory orders for Dec come in strong at +6.9% M/M (vs. the Street +2%). WSJ
Earnings
Arm Holdings (ARM) -3.5%: Beat, Q4 guidance aligned with forecasts defying anticipation of a stronger guide.
Ford (F) -4.7%: Q4 beat, 2025 guide cautious.
Qualcomm (QCOM) -5.1%: Q1 beat, attention on slowing smartphone demand.
ArcelorMittal (MT NA) +5.7%: Q3 soft Y/Y, expects higher demand in FY25 Y/Y.
AstraZeneca (AZN LN) +5.3%: Q4 Beat.
Hannover Re (HNR1 GY) -1.2%: FY mixed, confirms guidance.
ING (INGA NA) -2.5%: Q4 mixed, NII beat.
Maersk (MAERSKB DC) +8.5%: Q4 & FY24 beat.
Pernod Ricard (RI FP) +2.6%: H1 miss, cuts FY guidance given China and US challenges.
Siemens Healthineers (SHL GY) +5.9%: Q1 beat, affirms guidance.
SocGen (GLE FP) +9.4%: Q4 beat, EUR 872mln buyback.
Volvo Car (VOLCARB SS) -8.7%: Q4 Revenue beat, expects a continued weak market in 2025.
Linde PLC (LIN) Q4 2024 (USD): adj. EPS 3.97 (exp. 3.93), Revenue 8.3bln (exp. 8.4bln)
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks followed suit to the gains on Wall St where sentiment was underpinned amid a softer yield environment and the lack of trade war escalation. ASX 200 outperformed with the index led higher by strength in financials, consumer discretionary and gold-related stocks. Nikkei 225 advanced at the open and reclaimed the 39,000 level but then briefly pared the majority of the gains owing to yen strength and comments from hawkish BoJ board member Tamura. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the constructive mood in the region amid a lack of major escalation on the trade front with the US Postal Services flip-flopping on suspending parcels from Hong Kong and China, while China initiated a WTO dispute complaint regarding US tariffs although this was as previously announced. SK Innovation (096770 KS) - Expects about KRW 6tln in capex this year, adds a delay in EV market demand growth recovery is expected in the short term due to the Trump administration and automakers recalibrating their electrification business.
Top Asian news
BoJ Board Member Tamura said they need to raise rates in a gradual and timely manner and that a 0.75% rate would still be negative in real terms, while he added the BoJ must raise rates to levels deemed neutral on a nominal basis which is at least around 1% and must raise rates to at least around 1% in the latter half of fiscal 2025.
Tamura said he personally does not think BoJ's past massive monetary easing had a positive effect as a whole given its strong side effects and they must scrutinise whether prolonged monetary easing could cause problems such as excessive yen falls and housing price spikes.
Furthermore, he said the BoJ shouldn't persist in achieving 2% inflation as long as Japan is experiencing moderate price rises, as well as commented that he has no preset idea about the pace of interest rate hikes and the pace of interest rate hikes may not necessarily be once every half year.
European bourses (Stoxx 600 +0.7%) began the session modestly firmer across the board, and continued to climb higher as the morning progressed. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with only a couple of industries in the red with losses minimal. Basic Resources is the clear outperformer in Europe today; Anglo American (+4%) after its Q4 Production Update. Healthcare is lifted by post-earning strength in AstraZeneca (+4.9%).
Top European News
UK PM Starmer wants to "axe Rachel Reeves in bombshell reshuffle", according to Express. "In a shock move, the Prime Minister is considering moving Home Secretary Yvette Cooper to the Treasury to boost the country’s economic fortunes". "Insiders say an 'active process is going on' as Sir Keir considers how and when to execute a reshuffle, which is most likely to happen in the Spring".
ECB's Cipollone says there is still room for adj. rates downward. US tariffs on China could force the dumping of goods in Europe, weighing on growth and inflation. Soft landing remains the main scenario, no recession seen.
UK Citi/YouGov inflation survey: 12-month ahead 3.5% (prev. 3.7%), 5-10 years ahead 3.7% (prev. 3.9%)
FX
DXY is firmer vs. all peers after a run of three negative sessions for the DXY, spurred on by greater optimism on the trade front, which brought US yields lower. Today sees the release of weekly claims figures and remarks from Fed's Waller, Daly and Jefferson. DXY holds around the 108 handle with a session high at 108.05.
EUR/USD has made its way back onto a 1.03 handle after venturing as high as 1.0442 yesterday. ECB's Cipollone highlighted that US tariffs on China could force the dumping of goods in Europe, weighing on growth and inflation. 1.0357 is the current session low with not much in the way of support until the 1.03 mark.
JPY is on the backfoot vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than peers on account of hawkish comments from BoJ hawk Tamura overnight who put forward his view that the Bank needs to raise rates to at least around 1% in the latter half of fiscal 2025. USD/JPY went as low as 151.82 overnight (lowest since 12th Dec) but has since returned to a 152 handle.
GBP is softer vs. the USD and to a lesser extent the EUR in the run-up to today's BoE policy announcement. Expectations are for a 25bps rate cut via an 8-1 vote split. Attention will be on any tweaks to forward guidance and how macro projections in the accompanying MPR indicate how loose/tight the MPC views current policy. Cable has made its way back onto a 1.24 handle and back below its 50DMA at 1.2498.
Antipodeans are both on the backfoot vs. the USD in quiet newsflow as a run of three consecutive sessions of gains comes to a halt.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1691 vs exp. 7.2535 (prev. 7.1693).
Reuters Poll: Short bets on the KRW, MYR & THB at lowest since October 31st, bearish bets on INR at highest since mid-July 2022.
Fixed Income
USTs are in the red, weighed on overnight in tandem with JGBs on hawkish commentary from BoJ’s Tamura (hawk) who stated they must raise rates to at least around 1% in the latter half of FY25. More broadly, the benchmark is trimming some of the upside seen on Wednesday with yields picking back up after their pullback. Thus far, USTs down to a 109-16 base vs Wednesday’s 109-29 peak; if the move extends, support factors at 109-02 before the figure and then 108-25+. US Jobless Claims, Challenger Layoffs and a few Fed speakers due.
Bunds are in the red and spent much of the morning towards the 133.14 session low. Pressure which comes as the complex unwinds some of the pullback in yields that was a feature of yesterday’s session for global benchmarks. Aside from Construction PMIs, docket has been light; currently trading around 133.41 vs peak at 133.53.
Gilt downside in-fitting with peers, but to a much lesser extent as we count down to the BoE, Newsquawk preview available. A poor set of data and general lifting in the fixed income complex has brought Gilts just into the green. Gilts were pulled off lows by a particularly dire UK Construction PMI for January. A release which saw Gilts jump from 93.55 to 93.70 and thereafter to a 93.84 peak, which then continued to make a session high at 93.93. Thereafter, it was reported that PM Starmer is said to be considering removing Chancellor Reeves and replacing her with current Home Secretary Cooper.
On Wednesday, PM Bayrou survived (as expected) the two censure motions against him which means the 2025 Budget has now passed the National Assembly. However, there are still numerous hurdles to parts of the budget ahead. The passing was well received with the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread dipping below 70bps yesterday evening and again this morning. However, OATs thereafter found themselves the modest EGB underperformer with the spread widening back to near 73bps ahead of chunky supply, which was well received and sparked an EGB rally with the spread narrowing back to 70bps.
Spain sells EUR 6.19bln vs exp. EUR 5.5-6.5bln 2.40% 2028, 3.10% 2031, 4.00% 2054 Bono & EUR 0.57bln EUR 0.25-0.75bln 1.15% 2036 I/L.
France sells EUR 13bln vs exp. EUR 11-13bln 3.20% 2035, 1.25% 2036, 1.25% 2038, and 3.25% 2055 OAT Auction.
Commodities
Modest upside in crude benchmark after the sell-off yesterday. Action this morning wasn't dictated by any fresh macro headlines, although crude experienced a few upticks and broke out of overnight ranges in the first half of the European session as volumes picked up. Brent Apr resides in a USD 74.60-74.98/bbl parameter.
Soft trade across precious metals amid a more constructive risk tone but also alongside a surging dollar. Spot gold resides in a USD 2,848.97-2,873.34/oz range.
Mixed trade across base metals despite the firmer Dollar but amid the mostly constructive risk sentiment across the broader market. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,267.85-9,356.00/t.
Qatar sets March marine crude OSP at Oman/Dubai + USD 2.9/bbl; land crude OSP at Oman/Dubai + USD 2.75/bbl
Citi lifts its 2025 average forecast for Gold to USD 2900/oz (prev. 2800/oz); 0-3month target upgraded to USD 3000/oz, 6-12 target maintained at USD 3000/oz.
Oil and gas traders likely to seek waivers from China over tariffs that Chinese govt plans to impose on US crude and LNG, according to Reuters sources.
Japan is reportedly seeking exemptions from steel import tariff being considered by India, according to Reuters sources, citing Chinese overcapacity.
Geopolitics: Middle East
Israeli occupation forces stormed Balata refugee camp east of Nablus in the West Bank, according to Al Jazeera.
Israeli PM Netanyahu questioned what was wrong with the idea of allowing Gazans to leave, while he added that the idea should be pursued and done.
Geopolitics: Other
US Defense Secretary Hegseth held a call with Panama's President Mulino and they agreed to expand cooperation between the US military and Panama's security forces. It was separately reported that the State Department announced that US government vessels can now transit the Panama Canal without charge fees although the Panama Canal Authority later said it has not made any changes to charge fees.
US Event Calendar
07:30: Jan. Challenger Job Cuts -39.5% YoY, prior 11.4%
08:30: Feb. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 213,000, prior 207,000
08:30: Jan. Continuing Claims, est. 1.87m, prior 1.86m
08:30: 4Q Nonfarm Productivity, est. 1.2%, prior 2.2%
08:30: 4Q Unit Labor Costs, est. 3.4%, prior 0.8%
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
It’s that time of the year…. I took my first hay fever tablet yesterday as the itchy eyes begun. Since I moved out of polluted London 15 years ago and into the country, I’ve gone from having no allergies to having terrible ones every year, always starting some time between mid January and mid February. Let's hope the drugs work this year.
After a severe allergic reaction on Monday after the tariff news, markets continued to be relatively sedated yesterday as investors continued to price out the chance of aggressive tariffs, whilst the ISM services index showed inflationary pressures were weaker than expected. That meant the US dollar (-0.35%) continued to fall, reaching its lowest level in the last week, and the prospect of lower inflation also helped to bring down Treasury yields, with the 10yr yield (-9.4bps) down to 4.42%. On that around the time of the US close Treasury Secretary Bessent said in an interview with FOX that while President Trump wanted lower rates, they were both focused on the 10yr yield not the Fed policy rate, adding that policies to boost energy supply and reduce the budget deficit would help achieve this. He implied that the "jumbo rate cut", referring the 50bps cut in September, helped create the bond sell-off. So this was an important interview and all other things being equal will encourage a flattening bias. However as Bill Clinton's political advisor James Carville famously said back in 1993 when referring to the afterlife "... I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody". So this is new important news that shows the Trump administrations' attitude to monetary policy and yields. However at the end of the day their fiscal and supply side policies and how they impacts growth, supply and inflation will still be the most important.
In terms of more detail on what drove the moves yesterday, the ISM services print added fuel to the bond rally, as the prices paid component fell back to 60.4, after spiking to 64.4 the previous month. Remember that the release a month ago was one of the main factors in turbocharging the bond selloff, so the fact we saw a pullback came as a relief to investors. Moreover, the headline indicator fell to 52.8 (vs. 54.0 expected), so that also helped to alleviate concerns about demand pressure, and whether the Fed might have to hike rates in the months ahead. Indeed, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker took down their Q1 estimate from an annualised 3.9% to 2.9% after the various releases, suggesting the economy was still doing well, but not seeing a noticeable acceleration either.
So that helped investors to dial up their expectations for rate cuts this year, with 47bps now priced by the December meeting, up +2.3bps, and having briefly reached a full 50bps intra-day. A partial reversal later on came in part as Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that “If we see inflation rising or progress stalling in 2025, the Fed will be in the difficult position of trying to figure out if the inflation is coming from overheating or if it’s coming from tariffs”. Goolsbee had been one of the more sanguine FOMC voices on inflation in the past year so it’s a notable comment for how Fed might be thinking about tariff risks. Later in the evening, we heard from Fed Vice Chair Jefferson that the Fed can remain patient with the economy in a good place. Overall, the view that the Fed would still cut rates in 2025 helped the 2yr yield fall -2.6bps to 4.19%.
Equities also took part in a more positive mood, even as the Magnificent 7 were down -1.47% after Alphabet’s (-7.29%) earnings after the previous day’s close. Note that Amazon are the sixth Mag-7 to report tonight while we wait until February 22nd for Nvidia to complete the set.
Talking of which, it was not all bad news for the tech mega caps, with Nvidia (+5.21%) posting a strong advance after Super Micro Computer announced that its new AI data centres using Nvidia's new Blackwell chips were ready to ship. But the overall equity gains were broad-based, with the S&P 500 up +0.39% as more than two-thirds of its constituents were higher on the day. Europe also held up well, with the STOXX 600 up +0.47%, whilst Spain’s IBEX 35 (+1.32%) outperformed thanks to a surge from Santander (+8.29%).
While yesterday saw a breather from the tariff headlines, Peter Sidorov on my team published a note looking at the lessons we can draw from the opening salvo of the new trade war over the past week and the potential implications going forward, including a review of who is most exposed to US tariff risks.
Looking forward, one of the main highlights today will be the Bank of England’s policy decision at 12:00 London time. They’re widely expected to cut rates by 25bps, taking the policy rate down to 4.5%, which would be their third rate cut of this cycle. However, recent weeks have seen quite a bit of volatility in UK markets, and this is the first decision since the bond selloff in early January, where the 30yr gilt yield hit its highest since 1998. Indeed, at the height of the pound’s slump, there had been speculation about whether the BoE would cut at all at this meeting. However, since the downside surprise in the latest CPI release, market expectations have converged around another 25bp rate cut. For today, our UK economist is expecting an 8-1 vote in favour of a rate cut, but expects them to retain as much flexibility as possible. See his full preview here for more info.
Ahead of the BoE’s decision, gilts and other European sovereign bonds put in a strong performance yesterday. In fact for gilts, it was the biggest decline in the 10yr yield (-8.5bps) since the CPI release three weeks earlier, taking it down to 4.44%. That was echoed across Europe, where yields on 10yr bunds (-3.2bps), OATs (-2.8bps) and BTPs (-4.4bps) all fell back. That said, the declines were mostly limited to the long-end, with the 2yr German yield actually up +0.5bps, which came as the ECB’s Lane said that getting inflation to settle at target “might take longer than expected”.
This morning in Asia markets are higher across the board with the the Shanghai Composite (+0.86%), KOSPI (+0.78%) and Hang Seng (+0.65%) reversing their previous session losses. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.49%) is also higher. US equity futures are up around a quarter of a percent.
Early morning data showed that Australia’s trade balance rose less than expected in January, shrinking to A$5.09 bn (v/s +$6.5bn) as imports surged, and exports came in sharply below estimates amid weak demand from China.
In FX, the Japanese yen (+0.26%) continues to gain ground for the fourth straight session trading at 152.20 against the dollar, its highest level since December 12 amid growing acceptance that the BOJ would keep raising interest rates. Those moves have come following hawkish comments from BOJ’s board member Tamura Naoki stating that the central bank must raise rates at least to around 1% in the latter half of fiscal 2025.
Looking at yesterday’s other data, we got the ADP’s report of private payrolls from the US, which comes ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report. That was stronger than expected at 183k (vs. 150k expected), but the number was in the tight range it’s stayed in over the last 6 months, suggesting that the labour market was still in decent condition.
To the day ahead now, and one of the main highlights will be the Bank of England’s policy decision. Central bank speakers will include BoE Governor Bailey, BoC Governor Macklem, the ECB’s Nagel and Escriva, and the Fed’s Waller and Logan. Otherwise, data releases include the weekly initial jobless claims from the US, Euro Area retail sales for December and German factory orders for December. Finally, earnings releases include Amazon.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 02/06/2025 - 08:29
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-fluctuate-amid-disappointing-earnings-dollar-yields-rise
BlackRock To Launch Bitcoin ETP In Europe
BlackRock To Launch Bitcoin ETP In Europe
https://cointelegraph.com/news/blackrock-list-bitcoin-etp-europe
BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, is preparing to launch a Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) in Europe, according to a Feb. 5 report by Bloomberg.
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The move comes after BlackRock’s US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), drew upward of $57 billion in net assets after launching in January 2024. BlackRock’s IBIT fund is America’s most popular spot Bitcoin ETF and chived in just a year what it took GLD (the most popular gold ETF) seven years to achieve...
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BlackRock’s European Bitcoin ETP will reportedly be domiciled in Switzerland. The asset manager plans to start marketing the fund as soon as this month, Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-05/blackrock-said-to-list-bitcoin-exchange-traded-product-in-europe
, citing people familiar with the matter.
BlackRock is a top ETF issuer, with $4.4 trillion in assets under management (AUM) across its suite of ETPs. This would be BlackRock’s first Bitcoin ETP outside of North America, Bloomberg said.
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BlackRock’s IBIT is the US’s most popular BTC ETF. Source: https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust
Expanding crypto product suite
BlackRock has been doubling down on IBIT’s success with international expansions. In January, BlackRock https://cointelegraph.com/news/blackrock-launches-bitcoin-etf-canada
on the Cboe Canada. The ETF allowed Canadian investors to access BlackRock’s flagship US spot Bitcoin fund.
Overall, US Bitcoin ETFs saw more than https://cointelegraph.com/news/blackrock-bitcoin-etf-tops-rivals-2024-net-inflows
in 2024, or roughly $144 million in net inflows each trading day, according to data from Farside Investors.
In November, US BTC ETFs https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-bitcoin-etfs-break-100-billion
for the first time, according to data from Bloomberg Intelligence. Crypto analysts at Steno Research expect Bitcoin ETFs to attract another roughly $48 billion worth of net inflows in 2025.
Bitcoin has “become [a] more important component […] of investors’ portfolios structurally” as they increasingly seek to hedge https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-debasement-trade-jpmorgan
, investment bank JPMorgan said in a December report, citing the “record capital inflow into crypto markets.”
Surging institutional inflows could cause positive https://cointelegraph.com/news/2025-demand-shock-bitcoin-price-spike-sygnum
for Bitcoin, potentially sending BTC’s price soaring in 2025, asset manager Sygnum Bank said in December.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 02/06/2025 - 07:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/blackrock-launch-bitcoin-etp-europe
At Least 40,000 Fed Workers Accept 'DOGE Buyout' As Deadline Looms Tonight
At Least 40,000 Fed Workers Accept 'DOGE Buyout' As Deadline Looms Tonight
Thursday marked the final day for federal employees to accept the Trump administration's offer of eight months of pay and benefits in exchange for voluntarily stepping down. According to the latest figures from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-06/musk-buyout-deal-has-more-than-40-000-takers-as-deadline-nears
, at least 40,000 government workers—about 2% of the federal civilian workforce—have opted into the resignation program.
An official from the Office of Personnel Management told Bloomberg that deferred retirement applications have been steadily increasing and are expected to surge by the end of Thursday, the deadline to apply. Employees can submit their resignations by sending the word "resign" to their government email accounts.
"While a few agencies and even branches of the military are likely to see increases in the size of their workforce, the majority of federal agencies are likely to be downsized through restructurings, realignments, and reductions in force," OPM recently told federal workers in an email.
OPM added: "These actions are likely to include the use of furloughs and the reclassification to at-will status for a substantial number of federal employees."
The agency also told workers that "consolidation and divestitures" could lead to changes in "physical office" locations.
Reuters noted that federal worker unions have told members not to take the deal. The unions sued to block the offer, with a court hearing scheduled for 1300 ET. Also, Redditors on the "fednews" forum on the Reddit social media platform told other fed workers to "hold the line."
President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, a special government employee leading the Department of Government Efficiency, have been on a crusade to provide the American people with transparency regarding out-of-control spending by federal agencies. One major win for Trump has been unleashing DOGE to neuter the Deep State's unlimited piggybank, also known as USAID. The agency has since been https://www.zerohedge.com/political/usaid-website-goes-dark-trump-reportedly-plans-shift-agency-under-state-department
into the State Department.
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Latest USAID headlines:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/elon-musk-special-government-employee-white-house-confirms
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/politico-ny-times-propped-millions-dollars-us-government
DOGE headlines:
The Trump administration estimated that between 5% and 10% of the federal workforce could accept the offer, which would save taxpayers close to $100 billion. This is what swamp draining looks like—a mandate the American people gave Trump.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 02/06/2025 - 07:20
Americans Are The Most-Scammed People In The World
Americans Are The Most-Scammed People In The World
Several criminal groups, predominantly originating from China, have set up https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/07/1151906
.
These centers are prolific for carrying out a form of fraud called “https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/fintech-crypto-fraud-thailand/
, over a prolonged period of time, gradually building up the victim’s trust as if a friend. The victim is encouraged to transfer money, in this way “fattening the pig”, until all of their money has been drained and the victim is metaphorically “slaughtered”.
In this role, the perpetrator usually pretends to be someone both wealthy and competent in https://www.statista.com/topics/4495/cryptocurrencies/
, telling the victim to transfer their money into the share market, cryptocurrency or foreign currency exchanges through a fake site.
Perpetrators of pig butchering are often victims too, with https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2023/08/hundreds-thousands-trafficked-work-online-scammers-se-asia-says-un-report
by Chain Analysis.
https://www.statista.com/chart/33872/estimated-average-losses-due-to-scam-activity-per-victim/
carried out by the organization of 58,329 people in 2024 found that almost half of the world experienced a scam once a week.
https://www.statista.com/chart/33872/estimated-average-losses-due-to-scam-activity-per-victim/
You will find more infographics at https://www.statista.com/chartoftheday/
In China, respondents were particularly likely to say that they would recognise a scam, at 84 percent agreeing with the statement. Phone calls and text/SMS messages remained the primary methods through which scammers operated in 2024, with a notable rise in WhatsApp scams across several regions.
The financial cost of scams is enormous, at an estimated $1.03 trillion worldwide in 2024 alone.
While the average estimated loss per victim was highest in richer countries such as the United States ($3,520 per victim) and Denmark ($3,067), economically developing nations face a heavier impact.
According to GASA, Pakistan lost 4.2 percent of its GDP to scams while Kenya and South Africa lost 3.6 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively.
By comparison, in France and Germany, losses per country hovered around 0.2 percent of GDP.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 02/06/2025 - 06:55
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/americans-are-most-scammed-people-world
NFL To Remove "End Racism" End-Zone Message For Super Bowl
NFL To Remove "End Racism" End-Zone Message For Super Bowl
The National Football League (NFL) announced on Feb. 4 that it will remove the message “End Racism” from its end zones for the Feb. 9 Super Bowl.
Instead, the phrases “Choose Love” and “It Takes All of Us” will be etched on the end zones.
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“The Super Bowl is often a snapshot in time and the NFL is in a unique position to capture and lift the imagination of the country,” said NFL spokesperson Brian McCarthy in a statement.
McCarthy said one of the messages comes in light of recent tragedies in the United States.
“‘Choose Love’ is appropriate to use as our country has endured in recent weeks wildfires in Southern California, the terrorist attack here in New Orleans, the plane and helicopter crash near our nation’s capital, and the plane crash in Philadelphia,” he said.
“It Takes All of Us” and “End Racism” have been messages displayed on NFL end zones since 2020, when there was racial upheaval in the aftermath of the death of George Floyd, a Minneapolis man who died in police custody.
Super Bowl LIX will played between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. The Chiefs look to become the first team to win the big game three consecutive times.
President Donald Trump will be the first president to attend the Super Bowl.
The news about the end zone messages comes as NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell said there are no plans for the league to end its policies on diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI).
“We got into diversity efforts because we felt it was the right thing for the National Football League, and we’re going to continue those efforts because we’ve not only convinced ourselves, I think we’ve proven to ourselves that it does make the NFL better,” he said.
“We’re not in this because it’s a trend to get into it or a trend to get out of it,” he added. “Our efforts are fundamental in trying to attract the best possible talent into the National Football League both on and off the field.”
Additionally, Goodell said, “There are no quotas in our system. This is about opening that funnel and bringing the best talent into the NFL.”
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An example of DEI in the NFL is https://operations.nfl.com/inside-football-ops/inclusion/the-rooney-rule/
, which requires teams to conduct in-person interviews with two minority candidates for head coaching, general manager, and executive openings.
DEI practices have come under fire from Trump and others who say it is discriminatory and not based on merit.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 02/06/2025 - 04:15
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/nfl-remove-end-racism-end-zone-message-super-bowl
Russia Has (By Far) The World's Largest Icebreaker Fleet
Russia Has (By Far) The World's Largest Icebreaker Fleet
Canada, the United States and Finland announced a new trilateral partnership called the "https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/11/us-canada-finland-ice-pact-arctic
" (or Icebreaker Collaboration Effort) in July, 2024, stating that they would jointly build a fleet of as many as 90 icebreakers in the next years.
Icebreakers are used for several purposes including scientific missions.
However, https://www.statista.com/chart/33823/icebreakers-and-ice-capable-patrol-ships/
".
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/ARCTIC-SECURITY/zgvobmblrpd/
compiled by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and published by Reuters details how Russia had 57 icebreakers and ice-capable patrol ships in 2022.
https://www.statista.com/chart/33823/icebreakers-and-ice-capable-patrol-ships/
You will find more infographics at https://www.statista.com/chartoftheday/
This was more than any other single country at the time.
When combined (including the new additions of Sweden and Finland), the NATO alliance had 47 icebreakers as of 2022.
China had two icebreakers in 2022 and has since added a https://www.thebarentsobserver.com/arctic/china-commissions-new-icebreaker/119223
to its fleet, with a fourth polar research icebreaker expected to be delivered in 2025.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 02/06/2025 - 02:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-has-far-worlds-largest-icebreaker-fleet
FDA Dysfunction Rewards Chinese Black Marketeers At The Expense Of Kids
FDA Dysfunction Rewards Chinese Black Marketeers At The Expense Of Kids
,
If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is confirmed as Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS), he has vowed to reform the agency. His work is cut out for him: HHS’s size and scope are matched only by its dysfunction.
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Mr. Kennedy has singled out the Food and Drug Administration for attention. Let’s hope he doesn’t overlook the FDA’s Center for Tobacco Products (CTP). CTP is responsible for licensing the sale of all nicotine products in the U.S., a job it doesn’t want to do and is quite successful at avoiding. As of https://www.c-span.org/video/?536330-1/hearing-youth-vaping-illegal-cigarettes-enforcement#:~:text=Officials%20from%20the%20Food%20and%20Drug%20Administration%20and%20the%20Justice
, the CTP hadn’t authorized the sale of an e-cigarette or vaping system during the entire Biden-Harris administration. It had authorized just 1/1,000th of one percent of the applications it’s received and had a backlog of 557,000 pending applications for new products. That’s impressive inaction. Meanwhile, the U.S. market is flooded with illicit Chinese-made vapes.
The FDA has been so resolute in refusing to approve flavored vapes in particular that the U.S. https://reason.com/volokh/2024/01/03/en-banc-fifth-circuit-rejects-fdas-vaping-regulation-surprise-switcheroo/
in January 2024 decided against it in a case brought by a manufacturer. The judge writing the opinion for the court pulled no punches:
[FDA] sent manufacturers … on a wild goose chase. First [giving] manufacturers detailed instructions for what information [it] needed to approve e-cigarette products … [and saying] manufacturers’ marketing plans would be “critical” to the success of their applications. [It] promulgated hundreds of pages of guidance documents, hosted public meetings, and posted formal presentations … all with the (false) promise that a flavored-product manufacturer could, at least in theory, satisfy FDA’s instructions. The regulated manufacturers dutifully spent untold millions conforming …. Then, months after receiving hundreds of thousands of applications predicated on its instructions, FDA … pretended it never gave anyone any instructions about anything, imposed new testing requirements without any notice, and denied all one million flavored e-cigarette applications for failing to predict the agency’s volte face. Worse … FDA candidly admitted that it did not read a single word of the one million [marketing] plans … [and] denied that its voluminous guidance documents and years-long instructional processes meant anything.
But while the agency was playing “switcheroo” with regulated companies, black-market manufacturers weren’t inactive. Chinese companies rake in $3.5 billion a year here with illegal and potentially more harmful products while regulated U.S. manufacturers’ scientifically researched products sit in CTP limbo. What’s more, those black-market manufacturers don’t scruple at selling flavored e-cigarettes with kid-attractive names and packaging.
That’s the public price of the FDA preference for prohibition of all nicotine products. The other price – the one tobacco companies pay in “user fees” to submit products for FDA approval – it would rather you didn’t know about.
Protect the Public’s Trust (PPT) submitted FOIA requests in early 2023 for documentation on how the agency spends those user fees but was forced to sue later that year to access the documents. Even after we sued, FDA dragged its feet and acted as if it didn’t understand what we wanted. Now we know why. The CTP’s statutory mandate is to regulate the tobacco industry in an efficient, lawful, and objective manner. But it turns out the CTP is taking user fees from tobacco companies and handing them over to anti-tobacco special interests who want to ban all nicotine products.
FDA gave $472,756 to The Truth Initiative. It gave $195,600 to the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids and it gave $145,068 to the Michael Bloomberg-affiliated Bureau of National Affairs for tobacco prohibition activism. And its ties to these groups go deeper than money. As https://dailycaller.com/2024/06/04/fda-ethics-gifts-activists-complaint/
, CTP official Cathy Crosby allegedly improperly solicited gifts in the form of tickets to a gala hosted by the Center for Tobacco-Free Kids. Shortly after chatting at that event with a board member of The Truth Initiative, she left CTP to become its CEO.
Of the $1.235 billion in user fees the FDA has expended during the previous four fiscal years the agency https://washingtonreporter.news/p/exclusive-fda-funneled-hundreds-of
in FDA purgatory, while “regulated manufacturers dutifully spent untold millions conforming,” and while Chinese black-market manufacturers were raking in nearly $15 billion off the illegal U.S. market, FDA spent over a half-billion dollars trying to tell the American public what a great job it’s doing.
Every dollar sent to prohibitionist activists or spent on self-promotion is a dollar that could be used to get potentially dangerous illegal Chinese products off the shelves and out of the reach of kids. But FDA acts like just another of the anti-nicotine special interest groups uninterested in harm-reduction. It shares money and an active revolving door with activist groups, at the expense of its statutory responsibilities and ultimately of kids
The FDA’s prohibitionist zealotry is more than just wrong-headed. Mr. Kennedy should take note.
Michael Chamberlain is the Director of Protect the Public’s Trust.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 02/05/2025 - 23:25
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/fda-dysfunction-rewards-chinese-black-marketeers-expense-kids
"This Is Where The Big Money Fraud Is Happening": DOGE Dives Into Medicare Payment Malarkey
"This Is Where The Big Money Fraud Is Happening": DOGE Dives Into Medicare Payment Malarkey
Representatives of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) - who just https://x.com/amuse/status/1886462282156110189
, citing multiple individuals familiar with the situation.
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The DOGE representatives have been on site at the agency’s offices this week, the people said, and they are looking at the systems’ technology as well as the spending that flows through them, with a focus on pinpointing what they consider fraud or waste. DOGE representatives are also examining the agency’s organizational design and how it is staffed, the people added.
Musk confirmed his interest in CMS oversight in a social media post, writing on X: "Yeah, this is where the big money fraud is happening."
Yeah, this is where the big money fraud is happening https://t.co/jXqXrlKDGp
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1887184902543577590?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The White House and DOGE officials declined to comment on the matter. In the last week, Musk’s DOGE team has been moving swiftly to gain access across multiple federal agencies, including the https://www.zerohedge.com/political/treasury-depts-highest-ranking-career-official-rage-quits-after-musks-doge-team-probes
) to uncover fraud, abuse, and excessive spending.
A CMS official told the Journal that the agency has assigned “two senior agency veterans who are leading the coordination with DOGE," and that leaders are "taking a thoughtful approach to see where there may be opportunities for more effective and efficient spending in line with meeting the goals of President Trump."
CMS sits at the heart of the nation’s healthcare economy, managing a budget of approximately $1.5 trillion in fiscal 2024 - roughly 22 percent of total federal spending. The agency employs around 6,710 people and administers Medicare, Medicaid, and other healthcare programs vital to millions of Americans. Many of its employees have spent decades navigating the complex regulatory and operational framework underpinning the healthcare system.
Among the systems DOGE representatives have accessed is CALM, the CMS Acquisition Lifecycle Management system, which contains contract data, sources said. However, they noted that DOGE personnel have not yet gained entry to databases containing personally identifiable health information of Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries. They also have not accessed HIGLAS, the Healthcare Integrated General Ledger Accounting System, a key accounting platform for CMS payments.
One person familiar with DOGE’s work at CMS emphasized that the current level of access is "read-only," preventing Musk’s team from making modifications to the systems.
The intervention has raised concerns among CMS veterans and healthcare policy experts. The agency’s payment structures are notoriously complex, involving multiple layers of contractors and private insurers, especially within Medicare. Medicaid, jointly administered by federal and state governments, follows different financial pathways, with federal funding typically flowing to state agencies.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 02/05/2025 - 23:00
How 'Wars Of Choice' Formed The Worldview Of Trump's Top NatSec Picks Busy Cleaning Up The Swamp
How 'Wars Of Choice' Formed The Worldview Of Trump's Top NatSec Picks Busy Cleaning Up The Swamp
https://en.majalla.com/node/324143/profiles/mike-waltz-us-war-veteran-turned-nsa-chief
While the wars in Ukraine and Gaza were the dominant foreign policy issues being debated on the presidential campaign trail, Trump often cited another, older war as proof of Biden's foreign policy failures: the US war in Afghanistan.
And since he won the presidency, Trump has given multiple war veterans who served in Afghanistan a place in his cabinet. Mike Waltz is one of them.
And in his new role as National Security Advisor, he is already cleaning house, getting rid of generals and officials who played a part in America's blunderous exit from Afghanistan.
And while Afghanistan itself will not feature prominently on Trump's list of foreign policy priorities, the impact of America's longest war remains front and center in the minds of Waltz, Secretary of Defence https://en.majalla.com/node/323102/profiles/pete-hegseth-trumps-bombshell-secdef-pick
, all Afghan war veterans.
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Trump repeatedly said that wars in Ukraine and Gaza would have never started if the US had not left Kabul the way it did in August 2021 and that, going forward, America must avoid wars, and if it has to go to war, it should do it quickly without pursuing regime change.
Waltz would agree. He said Biden's decision to withdraw from Afghanistan allowed the Taliban - which hosted America's biggest enemy since WWII, Bin Laden and Al Qaeda - to come back to power. Since the pullout, the UN has reported that more than a dozen terrorist groups are back in Afghanistan, which is quickly becoming a bastion for transnational terror groups.
He also said that by abandoning its strategic base in Kabul - Bagram, one of the largest US bases in Asia - Biden basically left it open for China to snatch up. In fact, the Chinese are already using it commercially, mining Afghan minerals and rare earth resources, which are estimated to be worth billions, if not trillions. Waltz bemoans the fact that Beijing is reaping the spoils of a war that Americans died for.
A quick Amazon search on Afghanistan war books will turn up more than two dozen books just written in the last two years by US soldiers and officers on the betrayal of Afghanistan. Whilst Iraq was always seen as an illegal war, Afghanistan was seen as a good war. Waltz himself penned two books on his experiences in both wars.
From military to advocacy
After his military service, he continued his Afghan advocacy, publicly supporting the National Resistance Front led by Ahmad Massoud, the leading opposition group fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan. Waltz maintains close relations with Massoud and was on the phone with him as the Panjshir Valley was falling in September 2021.
While many officials moved on from Afghanistan, including those in the Biden administration, veterans led by Waltz have kept pressing for accountability over the chaotic way it pulled out. Waltz grilled army generals, including former joint chiefs of staff Mark Milley, who was responsible for Kabul. For his part, Hegseth stripped Milley of his security detail, and his portraits were taken down from the Pentagon.
Former Navy Seal and popular podcaster Shawn Ryan, who interviewed Hegseth just two days before the election, called the former FOX news anchor's interview with Massoud his "most important interview ever".
Ryan specializes in security matters and has hosted several high-profile military veterans, including Tulsi Gabbard, who has been very outspoken on the US betrayal of Afghanistan, which she says embodies everything that is wrong with the Pentagon, the CIA, and what some refer to as the Deep State.
Another Trump insider and former counter-terrorism DOD official, Kash Patel, who ran Trump’s Afghan withdrawal plan, wrote a whole book on how to ‘gut’ the defense establishment and fight the 'Deep State' which Trump vowed to take on.
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During his inauguration speech, he promised to "end wars" and "not get America into them in the first place." In fact, he was in favor of ending the war in Afghanistan and was the one who started negotiations with the Taliban during his first term, much like he is now calling for talks with Putin and a potential Iran deal. However, he believes this must be done from a position of strength and not in the chaotic way Biden withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021.
As for Ukraine, Trump looks poised to wind down support for Kyiv, which continues to lose territory to Russia, unless he sees a drastic change on the ground.
More generally, Trump's veteran-filled cabinet will try to avert costly ground invasions and opt for a light footprint with special forces if necessary, as was the case in the early days after 9/11 when less than 200 US special forces backed by air power toppled the Taliban in less than 30 days.
As Waltz assumes his post, his experience in Afghanistan will be weighing on his mind as he advises Trump on the best way to conduct America's foreign policy.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 02/05/2025 - 22:35
Saudi Arabia Has Good Reason To Dillydally On Formally Joining BRICS
Saudi Arabia Has Good Reason To Dillydally On Formally Joining BRICS
https://korybko.substack.com/p/saudi-arabia-has-good-reason-to-dillydally
Making an official decision either way could disrupt the Kingdom’s careful multi-alignment between the West and the World Majority...
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Saudi Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Al-Ibrahim https://www.rt.com/business/611379-saudi-arabia-brics-membership-update/
that “We’ve been invited to the BRICS, similar to how we’ve been invited to many other multilateral platforms in the past historically. We assess many different aspects of it before a decision is made and right now, we are in the middle of that.”
Saudi Arabia has good reason to dillydally on formally joining BRICS too for the reasons that’ll now be explained.
It was posited https://korybko.substack.com/p/why-did-saudi-arabia-clarify-that
in January 2024 when the country first revealed that it hadn’t yet accepted the group’s official membership invitation that this “is due to Western perceptions about this association, Iran’s involvement in the Red Sea Crisis, and Israeli-US pressure”, which still holds true. Regarding the first, Saudi Arabia would arguably feel uncomfortable with its name and national brand being included in the plethora of agenda-driven promotional materials misportraying BRICS as an anti-Western alliance.
The Kingdom used to be solidly in the Western camp but has taken a page from India’s book in recent years by https://korybko.substack.com/p/india-is-multi-aligned-but-non-allied
.
This grand strategic recalibration is due to Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), whose character and vision were praised by Putin in late 2022, which was analyzed https://korybko.substack.com/p/president-putins-insight-into-saudi
at the time.
MBS understandably doesn’t want to fuel the false perception that he’s pivoting away from the West.
The second reason about Iran’s involvement in the Red Sea Crisis is also still relevant since Saudi Arabia doesn’t want to formally join an organization in which its historic rival is also a member amidst the latest support that the latter has given to the Kingdom’s Houthi enemies. Moreover, Iran also supports Hamas, whose sneak attack on 7 October abruptly delayed work on the https://korybko.substack.com/p/imec-doesnt-just-compete-with-cpec
(IMEC), which was supposed to make Saudi Arabia a key node in Euro-Asian trade.
The final reason builds upon the aforementioned and includes joint pressure from its fellow Israeli-American IMEC investors who didn’t want Saudi Arabia joining a group within which Iran is also now a member as the West Asian Wars between Israel and the Iranian-led https://korybko.substack.com/p/russia-dodged-a-bullet-by-wisely
and Lebanon have since officially ended, neither would look approvingly upon Saudi Arabia formally joining BRICS, which could endanger its ties with both.
MBS wants to revive IMEC as soon as possible since it’s expected to function as an integral part of his “https://www.vision2030.gov.sa/en/overview
” grand strategic plan (the end date of which will likely be pushed back due to all that’s happened since its announcement in 2016) to revolutionize his country’s socio-economic systems. That’s not possible without a large degree of US involvement and Israel’s cooperation, the latter of which requires formal Saudi recognition of the Jewish State, possibly explaining Bibi’s concessions on Gaza.
Openly defying them by formally joining the same group within which their shared Iranian nemesis is already a member, and doing so right after Trump returns to power amidst reports that he’ll reimpose his “https://www.rt.com/news/610763-trump-envoy-iran-pressure/
after the latest Kazan Summit.
Additionally, Trump is under the https://thealtworld.com/andrew_korybko/whyd-trump-just-repost-his-threat-to-impose-100-tariffs-on-brics-countries
by Indian Minister of External Affairs Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar) that BRICS is focused on de-dollarizing and wants to create a new currency to rival the dollar, so he’d predictably overreact if Saudi Arabia decides to formally join now. That could scuttle MBS’ ambitious IMEC plans that are one of the centerpieces of his “Vision 2030” grand strategic plan so he’s loath to risk such consequences in exchange for literally nothing at all from BRICS.
It therefore makes perfect sense why Saudi Arabia is dillydallying on formally joining BRICS since it presently enjoys all the https://thealtworld.com/andrew_korybko/brics-membership-or-lack-thereof-isnt-actually-that-big-of-a-deal
brought about through its partial participation without any of the political or economic risks inherent in being a full member. MBS can therefore maintain his Kingdom’s careful multi-alignment between the West (which includes Israel in this formulation) and the World Majority by indefinitely delaying a decision on this either way.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 02/05/2025 - 21:45