Russia & The US' Diplomatic Choreography At The UN Shows Their Commitment To A "New Détente"
Russia & The US' Diplomatic Choreography At The UN Shows Their Commitment To A "New Détente"
https://korybko.substack.com/p/russia-and-the-us-diplomatic-choreography
Any claims of Russia “backstabbing” or “selling out” China are absurd and driven by a desire to sow discord...
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The “https://korybko.substack.com/p/why-might-russia-repair-its-ties
in supporting the latter’s more neutral one in the Security Council.
This diplomatic choreography was clearly coordinated between Putin and Trump to show the entire world that they’re committed to the “New Détente”. In parallel with what was unfolding on the world stage, each leader also spoke highly about the future of their economic ties, with Trump hyping everyone up to expect “https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1894131688990806161
in Riyadh.
It was foreseen in early January that “https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/creative-energy-diplomacy-can-lay-basis-grand-russian-american-deal#:~:text=No%20one%20should%20assume%20that%20everything%20proposed%20below%20will%20enter%20into%20force%2C%20but%20these%20suggestions%20could%20help%20move%20their%20talks%20along.
”, which readers can learn more about from the preceding hyperlinked analysis. The two dozen compromises suggested near the end have already been agreed upon in part as proven by the US withholding Article 5 guarantees from NATO countries’ troops in Ukraine, ruling out its membership in NATO, discussing energy cooperation with Russia, and flirting with other forms of sanctions relief.
Unlike what some have claimed, Trump isn’t trying to pull a so-called “https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/washington-s-embrace-of-putin-aims-to-drive-wedge-between-moscow-and-beijing/ar-AA1zy1Ry
” by incentivizing Russia to turn against China like his predecessor half a century ago incentivized China to turn against the erstwhile USSR, which is unrealistic to expect in any case. Rather, as explained in the analysis about creative energy diplomacy, the purpose is to incentivize Russia into placing limits on its resource and eventually military cooperation with China in order to erode its strategic advantages vis-à-vis the US.
From Trump’s view, this will avert the scenario of Russia turbocharging China’s superpower rise and thus even the odds of reaching a grand deal with the People’s Republic that’ll be more in the US’ favor, while Putin sees this as managing the global balance of power. From his perspective, Russia is incentivizing the US into relieving pressure upon it and unofficial paying reparations for the proxy war via investments into its resource industry https://archive.is/qqctD
, all while redirecting the US’ military focus elsewhere.
The Kissinger-inspired pragmatism behind this arrangement is predictably opposed by each country’s most zealous supporters, both at the civil society and state levels, but more on the US’ side than Russia’s. Furthermore, even though China officially supports the emerging Russian-US rapprochement, it’s likely still very suspicious of this process but is playing it cool for now in order to not attract negative attention. These trends must be managed by both parties in order for their envisaged “New Détente” to succeed.
Trump is ignoring his powerless opponents at the civil society level and European state one while purging his much more powerful opponents at the domestic (“deep”) state level https://revers.press/andrewkorybko-eng/tpost/hmt8szdk21-the-bulldozer-revolution-now-against-us
, with the outcome of Trump’s efforts in turn shaping what Putin will ultimately do. Since nothing tangible has been achieved thus far, the Russian leader doesn’t seem to be doing anything other than sending positive signals, but that could change if Trump agrees to the compromises that Putin requires for cutting a deal.
In that scenario, Russian publicly funded media’s narratives towards the US and the New Cold War more broadly could drastically shift, which would be expected to also influence the information products of those Russian-friendly members of the https://thealtworld.com/andrew_korybko/a-review-of-the-most-common-roles-in-the-alt-media-community
who take their cues from the Kremlin. To be clear, these figures and outlets are free-thinkers, but they trust Putin and the media that’s under his authority for guidance to better understand the global systemic transition and specific processes therein.
Dissident elements might no longer be platformed by Russian publicly funded media nor invited to Russia for conferences since their views would no longer conform with the Kremlin’s so that could motivate them to rethink their opposition to the “New Détente” in furtherance of their career interests. No such potentially high-profile dissent is expected at the domestic (“deep”) state level though due to the differences between Russia and the US’ systems so https://korybko.substack.com/p/was-pepe-escobar-duped-by-a-foreign?utm_source=publication-search#:~:text=This%20group%20believes,complex%20multipolarity%20(%E2%80%9Cmultiplexity%E2%80%9D).
are expected to easily fall into line.
As regards China’s speculative suspicions of the Russian-US rapprochement, Trump, Putin, their top diplomats, and other representatives are expected to make a concerted effort to allay their counterparts’ fears about this process in order to avoid an overreaction that could worsen China’s ties with each. That said, China is known for reacting calmly even to events that it disapproves of so no significantly negative response is expected, though Chinese-friendly Alt-Media figures might be a totally different story.
It's entirely possible that they’d either be tacitly encouraged to fearmonger about the “New Détente”, including by sensationally claiming that Russia “sold out” to the US, or might interpret everything on their own this way and sincerely believe that expressing these views somehow helps China. In any case, it can’t be ruled out that the Alt-Media Community might bifurcate into Russian-friendly and Chinese-friendly halves wherein the influential Iranian-led Resistance segment aligns with the latter out of spite.
That last prediction is predicated on how upset many of these figures are after “https://korybko.substack.com/p/russia-dodged-a-bullet-by-wisely
” as Israel systematically destroyed their regional network in West Asia over the course of the latest war. That outcome could be offset though if Iran later enters into its own “New Détente” with the US, after which it too could signal to its like-minded Alt-Media allies to shift their narratives like Russia might have earlier done by then.
All the insight shared thus far is conditional on the “New Détente” succeeding, the odds of which are increasing by the day as shown by the latest Russian-US developments and their respective leaders’ statements, hence the need to forecast the impact that this could have on the information sphere. The best-case scenario is that the pro-Chinese part of the Alt-Media Community doesn’t overreact on its own or is encouraged by China to respond that way so that the US can then more easily reach a deal with it.
Putin also endorsed Trump’s bold proposal for halving their defense budgets if everything works out between them, with the Russian leader even https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/putin-calls-donald-trumps-proposal-to-halve-defence-spending-a-good-proposal-us-cuts-50-we-cut-50/articleshow/118543108.cms
that China do so too if it’s interested. He therefore clearly wants to promote or even help broker a Sino-US deal for resolving the root causes of their own security dilemma exactly as he and Trump are trying to do with theirs. Any claims of Russia “backstabbing” or “selling out” China are accordingly absurd and driven by a desire to sow discord.
If everything evolves along the trajectory that was outlined in this analysis, then the onus will be on China and to a lesser extent on Iran whether to get with the program by negotiating their own comprehensive deals with the US or to continue to defy it at the expense of jeopardizing world peace. Russia and the US’ diplomatic choreography at the UN, and Putin and Trump’s arguably coordinated economic-resource partnership statements, show that they trust each other and truly want peace.
China and Iran have repeatedly expressed that they trust Russia, both at the national and leadership levels, so it would be a moment of truth for them whether they’d then follow its lead by entering into their own talks with the US or go the opposite way in a sign that they never really trusted Russia. Whatever they do will in turn inform Russian policymakers, Putin chief among them, of their true intentions and could thus lead to pragmatic and peaceful recalibrations of Russia’s policy towards them.
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Tue, 02/25/2025 - 23:25
Democratic Policies At Work: "Almost Half" Of Seattle's Homeless Population Is Not From Seattle
Democratic Policies At Work: "Almost Half" Of Seattle's Homeless Population Is Not From Seattle
A new study from the Discovery Institute’s Fix Homelessness reveals the devastating consequences of Seattle’s failed policies, which have not only failed to address homelessness but have actively worsened the crisis, https://mynorthwest.com/ktth/ktth-opinion/seattle-homeless-outsiders/4047310
.
Driven by progressive ideology rather than practical solutions, city leaders have fostered a system that attracts homeless individuals from outside the region while keeping them trapped in cycles of addiction, crime, and dependency.
Rather than tackling the root causes, these policies have invited more homelessness, turning the issue into a manufactured disaster rather than a problem to be solved.
The study reveals that nearly half of the city’s homeless population became homeless outside of Seattle or King County, drawn in by the city’s permissive policies—free tents, open-air drug use, and a refusal to enforce encampment laws. An overwhelming 86.6% were born elsewhere, and 80.2% didn’t even attend high school in the area.
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The https://mynorthwest.com/ktth/ktth-opinion/seattle-homeless-outsiders/4047310
says that rather than addressing addiction and mental health, Seattle relies on the failed “Housing First” model, which prioritizes subsidized housing over real treatment. Instead of helping, the city warehouses the homeless, trapping them in cycles of dependency.
KTTH's Jason Rantz argues that Seattle’s homelessness crisis isn’t about a lack of funding—it’s about failed priorities. The study shows the city has abandoned emergency shelters and recovery programs in favor of “supportive housing,” leading to a 282% spike in overdose deaths between 2020 and 2023.
Nearly half of King County’s 2023 overdose deaths were among the homeless, many in these housing units.
Like San Francisco and Los Angeles, Seattle spends billions while the crisis worsens. Leaders refuse to require addiction treatment before granting housing and have let encampments overrun parks and neighborhoods. Their one-size-fits-all approach ignores addiction and mental illness, trapping people in cycles of dependency.
Real solutions exist: prioritize treatment over subsidized housing, stop incentivizing homelessness, and enforce the law, Rantz says. Despite a Supreme Court ruling allowing cities to ban encampments, Seattle refuses to act. Until it abandons failed progressive policies, the crisis will only grow—and it won’t stay within city limits.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 02/25/2025 - 23:00
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/almost-half-seattles-homeless-population-not-seattle
Ukraine Tentatively Agrees To Trump's Rare Earth Mineral Deal
Ukraine Tentatively Agrees To Trump's Rare Earth Mineral Deal
Update(1348ET): Ukraine has tentatively agreed to Trump's mineral rights access deal, Financial Times is reporting in breaking headline. The devil will of course be in the details, given as recently as Sunday Zelensky was openly resistant to the terms offered so far.
"Kyiv has agreed terms with Washington on a minerals deal that Ukrainian officials hope will improve relations with the Trump administration and pave the way for a long-term US security commitment," https://www.ft.com/content/1890d104-1395-4393-a71d-d299aed448e6
early Tuesday afternoon.
"Ukrainian officials say Kyiv is now ready to sign the agreement on jointly developing its mineral resources, including oil and gas, after the US dropped demands for a right to $500bn in potential revenue from exploiting the resources," the report continues.
But again nothing appears to be ultimately finalized, and there will yet be plenty of haggling over what exactly this will look like. Snippets of draft agreements have been leaked, but little in the way of the more controversial details.
"The minerals agreement is only part of the picture. We have heard multiple times from the US administration that it’s part of a bigger picture," Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister and justice minister who has led the negotiations, told the same publication.
As we detailed below, Europe is actually offering its own rival version, which could be part of yet more efforts to stall and sabotage a Washington deal. President Putin himself is also touting discussions over "major" cooperation with US companies, including on access to Russia's rare earth minerals.
The US has said 'no' to NATO membership for Ukraine, even as some European leaders continue to push this dubious future scenario. Zelensky has even talked stepping down if this could guaranteed future NATO membership, but also as Ukraine's parliament has extended his mandate, with no new elections on the horizon.
* * *
In a wide-ranging new interview with Russia 1 TV, President Vladimir Putin touted that his country is in talks with the United States over cooperating on "major" joint economic projects.
The Monday remarks came two weeks following his first phone call with President Trump after the US leader took office for the second time. "Some Russian and American companies are in contact and discussing major projects," Putin https://www.rt.com/business/613264-putin-russia-us-projects-trump/
.
This is being confirmed by the US side as well, given Trump in a Truth Social post also revealed that major "economic development transactions which will take place between the US and Russia" are in the works. He said that ongoing discussions are "proceeding very well" — coming off last week's bilateral Riyadh talks led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russia's Sergey Lavrov.
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Putin has also this week been taking steps to make Russia an inviting place for US companies to operate once again, after well over 1,000 of them have curtailed or closed up operations in the wake of the Ukraine war's start.
"For many years, US trade policy has been tied to sanctions. We consider these sanctions illegal and harmful to global trade," Putin described said in the interview.
As for which areas the US and Russia might cooperate on, Putin didn't detail the talks down the that level, but did tease that Russia is ready to work with "foreign partners" including companies on mining minerals.
That's when https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gdx7488g5o
in the interview that we [Russia] "undoubtedly have, I want to emphasize, significantly more resources of this kind than Ukraine" and said: "We would be ready to offer this to our American partners… if they showed interest in working together."
"As for the new territories, it's the same. We are ready to attract foreign partners to the so-called new, to our historical territories, which have returned to the Russian Federation," he added. This provocative statement appeared to reference the four annexed territories in Ukraine's east: Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia.
Western media has described that this is an "eye-catching" move by the https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gdx7488g5o
:
He also suggested that Russia and the US could collaborate on aluminium production in Krasnoyarsk, in Siberia, where one Russian aluminium maker, Rusal, has its largest smelters.
The televised comments followed a cabinet meeting on Russia's natural resources.
On Tuesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists the proposal opened up "quite broad prospects", adding that the US needed rare earth minerals and Russia had "a lot of them".
Offering the US access to minerals is an eye-catching move by Putin, given how much pride the Kremlin has taken in keeping Russia's natural wealth in Russian hands. In 2023 Putin accused the West, particularly the US, of trying to "dismember" Russia to gain access to its natural resources.
We've certainly come a long way from the Biden administration goal of 'weakening Russia' - to use the words of former Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
🇷🇺🇺🇸 Putin reveals that Russia and the U.S. could launch joint aluminum mining projects in Krasnoyarsk, requiring $15B in investment.
One of the past problems in Russia-U.S. relations? A lack of deep business ties—Moscow mostly traded with the EU. Now, the strategy seems clear:… https://t.co/GeqMoFDFby
— Brian McDonald (@27khv) https://twitter.com/27khv/status/1894120962360062074?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Meanwhile, as the White House aggressively pursues a final deal for access to Ukraine's mineral deposits, including rare earths, Zelensky has appeared to resist.
Europe has at the same time offered its own alternative deal which Zelensky is likely to favor. Europe's Commissioner for Industrial Strategy Stéphane Séjourné https://www.politico.eu/article/critical-minerals-rare-earths-deal-eu-not-donald-trump/
.
* * *
Below are more highlights from Putin's Russia 1 interview, paraphrased and translated via https://www.rt.com/news/613259-putin-interview-trump-zelensky/
...
’Toxic’ Zelensky and Ukrainian statehood
Putin described Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky as a “toxic figure” for Ukrainian society, claiming that his irrational orders, driven by obscure political motives, have led to “unjustifiably high losses, if not catastrophic ones.”
Putin suggested that if Zelensky, whose five-year presidential term expired in May 2024, were to face new elections, he would have no chance of winning: “His chances of winning are absolutely zero – unless, of course, something is blatantly rigged.”
He argued that Zelensky’s popularity has collapsed and that he is actively avoiding peace negotiations with Russia in order to maintain his hold on power: “If negotiations start, this will sooner or later lead to lifting martial law. And as soon as that happens, elections must be held.”
‘Rational’ Trump
Putin suggested that Trump sees Zelensky as an obstacle to stabilizing Ukraine and securing a peace deal: “Trump likely understands that Zelensky is a destabilizing factor. He wants to bring Ukrainians back together, consolidate its society, and create conditions for the survival of the Ukrainian state.”
Addressing claims that Trump’s position on Ukraine plays into Russia’s hands, Putin strongly disagreed: “In the current situation, strange as it may seem, we would be more interested in [Zelensky] sitting there and further corrupting the regime with which we are in an armed conflict. And from the point of view of strengthening Ukrainian statehood, it is necessary to act in a completely different direction – to bring to power those who will enjoy the trust of the people of Ukraine.”
The Russian president also commented on Trump’s political style, rejecting the notion that the US president acts based purely on emotion: “No, of course not. His actions are based on cold calculation and a rational approach to the situation.”
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The role of Europe
Putin argued that European politicians are “shackled” by their past commitments and are unable to change their approach to Ukraine without losing credibility: “Unlike the newly elected US president, European leaders are tied to the current regime in Kiev. They are too invested and have made too many promises.”
He criticized Europe’s reaction to recent US-Russia diplomatic interactions, saying: “Their response was emotional and lacked practical meaning. Instead of addressing real issues, they focus on maintaining appearances.”
While dismissing demands by EU officials to have a say in Russia-US negotiations, Putin acknowledged that European involvement could be useful in broader discussions: “Their participation is welcome, of course. We never refused to engage with them.”
He also noted that Moscow values the efforts of non-European actors, such as BRICS nations, in promoting peace: “Not only Europeans but other countries as well have the right to participate, and we respect that.”
Military and trade relations with the US
Putin responded positively to Trump’s proposal to cut defense spending, indicating Moscow’s openness to negotiations: “We are not against it. The idea is good: the US cuts by 50%, we cut by 50%, and if China wants, they can join later.”
Commenting on US trade policies, Putin criticized American sanctions but acknowledged that each country sets its own trade priorities: “For many years, US trade policy has been tied to sanctions. We consider these sanctions illegal and harmful to global trade.”
Regarding Trump’s shift toward tariffs, Putin said he understood the reasoning behind the move: “Each country determines independently what is beneficial… I can understand the logic – to move production back home, create jobs, force taxes to be paid… But at some point, of course, these actions will encounter certain difficulties associated with inflationary pressure.”
Putin also confirmed that “some Russian and American companies are in contact and discussing major projects” but did not specify details.
* * *
As for Europe's newly touted 'rival' rare earths deal being discussed with Ukrainian leadership, some observers might see this as yet another attempt of Washington's European allies to sabotage Trump's maneuvering toward peace. Critics have said Trump is essentially forcing Ukraine to give up its future economic sovereignty. But Trump has said the US must be paid back for the many billions in weapons sent throughout the war.
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Tue, 02/25/2025 - 13:48
US Egg-Laying Hen Population Implodes, Wholesale Egg Prices Hit New Record
US Egg-Laying Hen Population Implodes, Wholesale Egg Prices Hit New Record
Under the Biden-Harris administration, farmers were forced to cull tens of millions of egg-laying hens to contain the bird flu outbreak. As a direct result, the nation's total egg-laying flock has plunged to its lowest level in nearly a decade, driving wholesale egg prices to record highs.
Trump stated this week that Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins will take action on soaring egg prices, adding, "We inherited all the problems."
Trump is correct in saying the egg-flation mess was "inherited," as the latest https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-24/egg-laying-hens-at-nine-year-low-as-bird-flu-decimates-us-flock
data shows that the nation's egg-laying hen population fell to its lowest level since 2016 last month. This decline was driven by farmers being forced to cull flocks under Biden's first term to curb the bird flu outbreak.
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"It was important to me to see firsthand an egg-laying farm facility implementing strong biosecurity measures. We have a lot of work to do as we combat avian flu, help our poultry industry recover, and bring the price of eggs down for all Americans. More coming mid-week on this," Rollins wrote on X on Monday.
It was important to me to see firsthand an egg laying farm facility implementing strong biosecurity measures. We have a lot of work to do as we combat avian flu, help our poultry industry recover, and bring the price of eggs down for all Americans. More coming mid-week on this.… https://t.co/rB699lGYoM
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) https://twitter.com/SecRollins/status/1894111868790477231?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Monday's print of the Urner Barry Egg Index EBP shows wholesale prices jumped to $7.56, a new record high. Since late Decemeber, wholesale prices have jumped to new record highs by the week, with reports of egg shortages nationwide.
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We advised readers at the start of the month:
Time To Build Backyard Chicken Coop As Wholesale Egg Prices Hit New Record Highs https://t.co/nJiB1tYvNO
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1886907623951282551?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
According to the https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/commercial-backyard-flocks
, 19 million birds across the Lower 48 have been infected by avian influenza over the last 30 days.
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It's time to set up those chicken coops, folks.
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Panic searching on Google.
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And don't forget honeybees and victory gardens—become self-sufficient and take back control of your own food supply chain instead of relying on mega-corporations that poison food with https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/cooking-oils-used-millions-linked-cancer-second-study-week
.
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Tue, 02/25/2025 - 13:20
Watch: FCC Chairman Brendan Carr Scales 1,800-Foot Tower
Watch: FCC Chairman Brendan Carr Scales 1,800-Foot Tower
The chairman of the Federal Communications Commission scaled an 1,865-foot tall broadcast tower on Monday, which he filmed and posted to X.
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"If we are going to continue to expand connectivity we need a lot more tower climbers. It’s a great job. It’s a good-paying job and it’s a career," said Carr, who strapped on a harness and took at 20-minute ride in a lift called a "pan," before transferring to the tower.
— Brendan Carr (@BrendanCarrFCC) https://twitter.com/BrendanCarrFCC/status/1894084159036944706?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
, only around 200 people climb and maintain these broadcast towers nationwide.
— Brendan Carr (@BrendanCarrFCC) https://twitter.com/BrendanCarrFCC/status/1894214001325641764?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
"It is always a fun experience to get up in the air and hang with a tower crew," said Carr, who complimented tower technician Hasani Hogan, an Army veteran.
"What a guy. It shows his bravery, his abilities and his commitment to the broadcast industry and our guys that do this. He has done it before and is willing to do it again," said Carr.
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https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 02/25/2025 - 08:10
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-fcc-chairman-brendan-carr-scales-1800-foot-tower
Futures Drop As Momentum Massacre Crushes Bitcoin
Futures Drop As Momentum Massacre Crushes Bitcoin
US equity futures, and Asian markets are lower as the recent tech-led selloff on Wall Street accelerated, sparking further risk-off behavior and momentum liquidations, and spilling over into bitcoin which plunged to a 3 month low breaking below its post election support. As of 7:00am, S&P futures are down 0.3% and are outperforming Nasdaq futs which are down 0.5%; sentiment was dented after Trump said that Canada/Mexico tariffs would be implemented on-time. Mag7 names and semis are lower with NVDA down 1.6%; Europe's ASML and STMicroelectronics also Bloomberg reported that the Trump admin is planning to expand efforts to limit China's technological advancements, including tougher semiconductor curbs and pressuring allies to escalate restrictions on China's chip industry. The ongoing stock rout sparked a rally in Treasuries that has pushed US 10-year yields down 6 bps to 4.34%. Traders also added to their Federal Reserve interest-rate cut bets with ~53 bps of easing now priced in by year end; the USD is flat. Commodities are mostly lower with crude/gasoline higher. Today’s macro data focus is on Housing, regional Fed activity indicators, and Consumer Confidence.
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Meanwhile Bitcoin tumbled 7%, dropping below $90,000 and sliding to a 3 month low of $88,000 breaking post-election support levels, as the recent momentum massacre sparked a brutal crypto selloff; meanwhile DeepSeek reopened access to its core programming interface after nearly a three-week suspension.
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In premarket trading, Nvidia led premarket losses among the Mag 7 stocks after Bloomberg News reported that Donald Trump’s administration is pressuring US allies to escalate their chip restrictions on China (Nvidia -1.3%, Alphabet -0.7%, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Apple were falling less than 1%, Tesla was little changed). US-listed Chinese stocks broadly rebound, with Alibaba rising 3.8% following its biggest drop since 2022; JD.com is up 1.8%, PDD +1.4%, Baidu +0.8%, Bilibili +2.8%. here are some other notable premarket movers:
Chegg shares tumble 22%, after the education technology company’s first-quarter projections for revenue and adjusted Ebitda trailed Wall Street expectations.
Hims & Hers Health shares slide 18% in premarket trading after the telehealth company reported fourth-quarter results and said it will soon stop selling some compound weight-loss drugs. While the results were solid, Piper Sandler noted that there was a high level of uncertainty for 2025.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks slide as Bitcoin tumbles below $90,000 to hit the lowest level since mid-November, paring the gains seen since Donald Trump’s election to the White House. MicroStrategy -5.9%, Coinbase -5.6%, Riot Platforms -4.4%, MARA Holdings -6%, Bit Digital -6.6%, CleanSpark -5.8%, Hut 8 Mining -6.7%
Zoom Communications shares fall 5%, after the communications software company gave a forecast that is modestly weaker than expected.
As broad-based selling swept markets, the VIX Index touched its highest level this year at just below 20. There didn’t appear to be a single catalyst for the selling - the suddenly pervasive pessimism was correctly described here two days ago in "https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-traders-hit-panic-button-perfect-storm-amid-positioning-valuation-breadth
"- although concerns are mounting that President Trump’s policies will hurt global economic growth. Uncertainty on trade policies has prompted investors to pare risk and switch to havens like Treasuries or gold. Trump signaled Monday that tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports will go ahead.
“At the moment there’s a lot of uncertainty reigning in the background which is making it challenging for investors to navigate,” said Alexandra Morris, an investment director at Skagen AS. “The whole tariff discussion is the main negative catalyst.”
Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday could be yet another catalyst to unleash volatility given its outsized impact on the broader market.
“Bear in mind that the market impact of Nvidia’s results have often proved to be as significant as US jobs reports over the last couple of years,” Deutsche Bank AG strategist Jim Reid wrote in a note to clients.
In Europe, tech stocks also underperformed but have been offset by gains in healthcare and banks with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.3%. European defense stocks rose after Bloomberg reported that Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz is in talks with the Social Democrats to approve up to €200 billion in special defense spending. Unilever shares fell after the company announced in a surprise move that CEO Hein Schumacher would step down and pass the reins to CFO Fernando Fernandez. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:
Smith & Nephew shares rise as much as 10%, the most since August, after reporting 4Q sales that beat estimates. The report is likely to reassure investors, RBC said, flagging particular strength in orthopaedics in the US
Novo Nordisk rises as much as 5.2%, to the highest since Dec. 20, after US firm Hims & Hers Health said it will soon stop selling some compound weight-loss drugs rivaling the Danish company’s offering
Galp Energia shares jump as much as 7.9%, the most in 10 months, after the company reported success at its latest exploration well off Namibia, boosting confidence in the company’s broader Namibia play
Thyssenkrupp shares rise as much as 15% in Frankfurt, to the highest since October 2023, after Citi increased its price target, citing the potential value unlock from the company’s marine and steel businesses
Dormakaba shares gain as much as 3.9%, to the highest level since 2021, after the Swiss security company lifted profit guidance slightly and posted solid results
European semiconductor stocks drop after Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is pressuring US allies to escalate their chip restrictions on China
European mining stocks fell after iron ore, copper and aluminum dropped in response to moves by the US to restrict Chinese investments
Unilever shares drop as much as 3.4% in London trading after the consumer goods company said Hein Schumacher would step down as chief executive officer and board director
SIG Group shares tumble as much as 13%, the most in five years, after the Swiss carton-packaging maker reported subdued full-year results. Analysts cite falling profitability, low growth in the Americas
European automakers underperform after passenger-car registrations dropped in January, while electric vehicle sales jumped; total sales in the region declined 2.1% year on year
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell as US President Donald Trump’s continued attempts to pressure China and other nations dented investor sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 1.4% before paring some losses. Chinese stocks whipsawed throughout the day, showcasing the volatility sparked by uncertainties around Trump’s actions. His administration is said to be sketching out tougher versions of US semiconductor curbs and pressuring key allies to escalate their restrictions on China’s chip industry. According to Bloomberg, Trump officials recently met with their Japanese and Dutch counterparts about restricting Tokyo Electron Ltd. and ASML Holding NV engineers from maintaining semiconductor gear in China, according to people familiar with the matter. This comes after a directive set the stage for a more muscular use of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, or CFIUS, a secretive panel that scrutinizes proposals by foreign entities to buy US companies or property, to thwart Chinese investment. The Hang Seng Tech Index had slumped as much as 4.4%, pacing losses for Chinese equities in New York. The gauge later erased most of its decline as more than $1 billion worth of money poured into Hong Kong stocks from China. JPMorgan strategists said US moves to limit investment in China tech may trigger a reversal in mainland stocks after the recent rally, while some investors saw an opportunity buy on dips. TSMC, Hitachi and Alibaba were among the biggest drags on the regional gauge. Most national benchmarks were in the red.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1%. The Aussie and kiwi dollars underperform, falling 0.4% each.
In rates, bonds surged, pushing the yield on 10-year Treasuries down six basis to 4.34%. The treasury rally sent yields to YTD lows, fueled by risk aversion tied to the potential for US tariff policies to dent economic growth. Swap spreads are notably tighter, a sign that receiving flows are a driver. In short-term rates, Fed-dated OIS revert to fully pricing in two 25bp rate cuts by year-end. US yields are near session lows, 6bp-8bp richer across maturities with gains led by the belly, steepening 5s30s spread by 2bp; 10-year touched 4.32% and outperforms German counterpart by 7bp, UK by 3bp. 10- and 30-year swap spreads are nearly 2bp tighter on the day; Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan during London morning said the central bank when it stops balance-sheet runoff should purchase more shorter-term than longer-term securities to mirror the composition of Treasury issuance. A widely-watched gauge of the attractiveness of German debt fell to the most negative on record, reflecting expectations for higher borrowing to fund big outlays on defense spending. Gilts followed Treasuries higher, with UK 10-year yields falling 3 bps to 4.53%. German 10-year borrowing costs are flat at 2.47% as bunds were held back by reports of emergency defense spending.
In commodities, oil prices are steady with WTI near $70.80 a barrel. Spot gold falls $10 to $2,941/oz. Bitcoin tumbled below $90,000 to hit the lowest since mid-November as investors stepped back from one of the most popular Trump trades.
Looking at today's calendar, we get the February Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity (8:30am), December FHFA house price index and S&P CoreLogic home prices (9am), February consumer confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing index (10am) and February Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am). Fed speaker slate also includes Barr (11:45am) and Barkin (1pm)
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 5,994.50
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 555.01
MXAP down 1.1% to 187.58
MXAPJ down 1.3% to 589.62
Nikkei down 1.4% to 38,237.79
Topix down 0.4% to 2,724.70
Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 23,034.02
Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,346.04
Sensex up 0.2% to 74,613.76
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 8,251.91
Kospi down 0.6% to 2,630.29
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.47%
Euro little changed at $1.0472
Brent Futures little changed at $74.81/bbl
Gold spot down 0.4% to $2,940.73
US Dollar Index little changed at 106.64
Top Overnight News
Donald Trump’s administration is sketching out tougher versions of US semiconductor curbs and pressuring key allies to escalate their restrictions on China’s chip industry, an early indication the new US president plans to expand efforts that began under Joe Biden to limit Beijing’s technological prowess. BBG
President Donald Trump’s Federal Trade Commission will “vigorously” sue to block illegal mergers, the agency’s new chairman said Monday, highlighting support for the repeated deal challenges during the Biden era. BBG
President Donald Trump said on Monday that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports are "on time and on schedule" despite efforts by the countries to beef up border security and halt the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. ahead of a March 4 deadline. RTRS
French President Emmanuel Macron said a truce in Ukraine could come in “weeks” after meeting with Trump at the White House but added that a deal “must not mean a surrender of Ukraine.” BBG
Fed's Goolsbee (2025 voter) said if the administration enacts policies that drive up prices, the Fed has to take them into account by law, while he added that auto parts suppliers have expressed concerns about tariffs and before the Fed can go back to cutting rates, it needs more clarity. Furthermore, Goolsbee said the full details of the administration’s policy package are still to be determined and they have to take a wait-and-see posture.
Fed's Logan (2026 Voter) does not comment on monetary policy in prepared remarks; says once quantitative tightening ends, it would make sense to overweight purchases of shorter dated securities; floats idea of discount window loan facility.
Elon Musk said subject to the discretion of the President, employees will be given another chance and a failure to respond a second time will result in termination.
Tesla’s European sales plunged 45% year on year in January to fewer than 10,000, as rival carmakers saw a surge in EV demand. It began rolling out driver-assistance capabilities in China. BBG
BofA Global Markets President DeMare says clients are doing less today than Q4 and the beginning of the year; still a good quarter even with client uncertainty, via Bloomberg TV. Says if they do not see productivity from AI, then investments will be scaled back.
China is increasing scrutiny of outbound investments by domestic companies as well as their use of proceeds from Hong Kong share sales, people familiar said. BBG
South Korea’s central bank lowered its policy rate by 25bp, as expected, and trimmed its growth forecast for the country as it resumed easing to support a sagging economy. WSJ
MSFT - Goldman reiterates its Buy rating, $500 PT, and leaves its estimates for $88bn/91bn in FY25/26 CapEx unchanged following recent reporting that Microsoft has potentially delayed or canceled some of its AI data center leases. While unconfirmed, GS believe this reporting emphasizes what the company has already telegraphed: that as a responsible capital allocator, Microsoft continues to invest in AI capacity prudently with an eye towards returns. GIR
A gauge measuring the attractiveness of German bonds hit a record low, in anticipation of more debt sales. BBG
Tariffs/Trade
US President Trump's team is seeking to tighten chip controls on China with the US said to be pressing Japan and Netherlands to align on China restrictions, while it is weighing tighter controls on Nvidia (NVDA) chip exports to China, as well as considering more restrictions on SMIC (981 HK) and CXMT. Furthermore, US officials reportedly met with Japanese and Dutch counterparts to restrict Tokyo Electron (8035 JT) and ASML (ASML NA) engineers from maintaining semiconductor equipment in China, according to Bloomberg.
Mexico studies tariffs on China in a bid to strike a deal with US President Trump, while Mexican President Sheinbaum said she sees agreements with the US by Friday and that Mexican officials are in Washington studying possible China levies, according to Bloomberg.
WTO panel is to examine measures adopted by Turkey targeting Chinese EV imports.
French President Macron said he hoped he convinced Trump on trade and noted that they do not tariff the US, while he added that they don't need a trade war and the urgency is to increase security expenditure.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded lower following the weak handover from the US where the tech sector led the declines and risk appetite was sapped amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs and geopolitics. ASX 200 retreated with underperformance seen in the tech, consumer discretionary and financial sectors, while defensives showed resilience and energy was also lifted following a jump in Woodside Energy's profit. Nikkei 225 slumped at the open on return from the long weekend but was off worse levels as shares of Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Sumitomo rallied following reports late last week that Berkshire Hathaway plans to gradually raise its investments in Japanese trading houses. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the negative mood amid headwinds from trade frictions with the US seeking to tighten chip controls on China and after the PBoC's MLF operation resulted in a net drain of CNY 200bln. Nonetheless, Chinese markets were well off today's worst levels as the heavy slump at the open spurred some dip buying.
Top Asian News
PBoC conducted a CNY 300bln 1-year MLF operation with the rate kept at 2.00% for a net drain of CNY 200bln.
Huawei improved production of AI chips and achieved a yield close to 40% which marks a breakthrough for China's tech goals, according to the FT.
Bank of Korea cut its base rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, as expected, with the rate decision unanimous and interest rates for the special loan programme were also lowered. BoK said US tariff policies, Fed policies, and stimulus measures by the Korean government are some of the uncertainties for the economy, while it noted it is necessary to remain cautious about high FX volatility. BoK Governor Rhee stated that four board members said current policy rates could be maintained for the next three months and two board members said further rate cuts are possible for the next three months, while Rhee added that the market consensus expecting two more rate cuts this year aligns closely with the central bank's views.
PBoC Advisor says Chinese CPI will decline moderately in February; changes in external environment will increase pressure on expanding domestic demand this year.
Opposition Japan innovation party (ISHIN) agrees on details of LDP, Komeito Coalition's revised state budget, according to a party official; revised state budget would pave way for passage of JPY 115tln FY2025-26 budget.
China's MOFCOM urges the EU to stop listing Chinese enterprises and to cease spreading false accusations against China; China will take necessary measures to firmly protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) are mostly modestly firmer vs. an entirely negative open; sentiment gradually improved as the morning progressed, paring some of the early-morning losses following a negative APAC handover. European sectors are mixed vs opening mostly lower. Healthcare tops the pile, with Novo Nordisk (+4%) shares on the front foot. Tech is the clear underperformer today, after Bloomberg reported that US President Trump's team is seeking to tighten chip controls on China; it was also said that US officials reportedly met with Japanese and Dutch counterparts to restrict Tokyo Electron and ASML engineers from maintaining semiconductor equipment in China.
Top European News
ECB's Nagel says inflation outlook is fairly encouraging; persistent core and services inflation warrants caution, via Bloomberg; German economy in "stubborn" stagnation; ECB should take one step at a time and not rush more cuts. Hopes for swift formation of the new German economy.
ECB's Kazaks says "I think we have to continue cutting rates", via Bloomberg; will take rate cuts "step by step", rate path to hinge on Trump policies. Must be cautious as we near the end of the terminal rate. Joint borrowing instrument needed for big investments. Europe at a critical point, need to invest in defence.
Reuters poll: 66/66 expect the BoE to hold rates at 4.5% in March with a median view of a cut in Q2 to 4.25%.
FX
After a pick-up late in the US session yesterday, DXY is a touch lower in early European trade. Trump was able to provide the dollar with some support yesterday after stating that he will be proceeding with tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Today's data slate sees the release of US Conference Board consumer confidence which is expected to slip to 102.5 from 104.1. Today's speaker slate includes Fed's Barr and Barkin. DXY is currently within a 106.56-79 range and above yesterday's YTD low at 106.12.
EUR is trivially firmer/flat vs. the USD with focus in Europe primarily on the political landscape in the wake of the fallout of the German Federal Election and the subsequent coalition-building process. From a monetary policy perspective, the latest ECB Euro Area Indicator of Negotiated Wage Rates showed Q4 wage growth slow to 4.12% from 5.43% but had little sway on EUR. Note ECB’s Schnabel is due to speak at 13:00GMT. EUR/USD is currently tucked within Monday's 1.0453-0528 range.
USD/JPY initially edged higher overnight and briefly reclaimed the 150.00 status but then faded the gains amid the broad downbeat risk tone across the APAC region and Japanese Services PPI data which slightly accelerated as expected. USD/JPY has delved as low as 149.20 with the next downside target coming via Monday's YTD low at 148.84.
GBP is flat vs. the USD and EUR with macro newsflow light for the UK. We heard yesterday from BoE's Dhingra who remarked that if rates are lowered by 25bps at a quarterly pace, you will still be in restrictive territory all of this year. That being said, she is very much viewed as s dovish outlier on the MPC. Of greater interest today is comments from BoE Chief Economist Pill. Currently trading within a 1.2607-38 range.
Antipodeans are both a touch softer vs. the USD. AUD/USD is down for a third consecutive session after printing a YTD peak at 0.6408 last Friday. Fresh macro drivers are lacking for Australia with attention instead turning to January inflation data due overnight with consensus looking for weighted CPI Y/Y to hold steady at 2.5%.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1726 vs exp. 7.2530 (prev. 7.1717).
RBI is seen as likely to be selling USD's to stop the INR's downside, via Reuters citing traders.
Fixed Income
USTs are firmer, picked up a touch on Monday’s strong 2yr outing before grinding marginally higher overnight and then lifting back above the 110-00 mark to a 110-09 peak in the European morning, a high the benchmark has remained in proximity to since. Ahead, the speakers continue with Barr & Barkin due before POTUS signs his latest executive order. Amidst that, the US will sell 70bln of 5yr notes; follows a 2yr which saw a slightly softer b/c than the prior but still a strong level of demand, particularly for the indirect figure.
Bunds towards the top-end of a 131.87-132.45 band with the benchmark essentially flat as participants continue to digest the German election and await clues on coalition talks; the high printed just before the EZ wage tracker as the general risk tone took another modest leg lower. On the latter, the figure moderated from the prior in-fitting with proxies while an extensive text release from ECB’s Nagel largely focussed on the Bundesbank's accounts while monetary comments were in-fitting with his hawkish bias. No reaction to either event. A well received German Green Bund outing also had little impact.
Gilts are firmer, somewhere between USTs and Bunds in terms of magnitude as the benchmark acknowledges both the tepid risk tone and reports suggesting the UK could get involved in European-wide defence spending; a source cited by the FT said the UK Treasury “is interested in” the idea of a rearmament bank for such funding. Given that structuring spending in this way would limit the impact on Reeves’ fiscal position. Gilts find themselves in the green and holding towards the top-end of a slim 92.67-91 band.
UK sells GBP 1.6bln 1.125% 2035 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.52x (prev. 3.12x) and real yield 1.115% (prev. 1.128%).
Germany sells EUR 1.495bln vs exp EUR 1.5bln 1.80% 2053 Green Bund: b/c 2.4x (prev. 2.6x), average yield 2.73% (prev. 2.84%) & retention 0.33% (prev. 24.60%)
Italy sells EUR 2.75bln vs exp. EUR 2.5-2.75bln 2.55% 2027 & EUR 1.5bln vs exp. EUR 1.25-1.5bln 1.80% 2036 BTP€i
German 10-year spread to swaps hit the most negative on record, according to Bloomberg.
Saudi Arabia offers Middle East's first sovereign Euro Green Bond, via Bloomberg; 7-year Green Bond IPT mid swaps +155bps, 12-year Conventional Bond IPT mid swaps +175bps, according to IFR.
Commodities
Crude is a little firmer in what has been a lacklustre and choppy session for the complex thus far. Initially oil prices were subdued alongside the risk-off sentiment seen in early-European trade, but did improve a touch thereafter. More recently, prices have been choppy with Brent May currently trading in a USD 74.17-76/bbl parameter.
Subdued trade across precious metals despite the softer Dollar but with price action contained to tight ranges amid a lack of driver this morning. Spot gold remains at the record highs printed yesterday (USD 2,956.31/oz) with today's range currently between USD 2,929.64-2,953.42/oz.
Lacklustre trade across base metals despite the weaker Dollar but with the broader sentiment on the back foot and newsflow on the quieter side. 3M LME copper currently resides in a USD 9,424.95-9,500.05/t range after finding resistance at the half-round figure.
US President Trump commented on Truth that they want the Keystone XL Pipeline built and suggested easy approvals.
India could reportedly extend import curbs on low ash metallurgical coal used in steelmaking, according to Reuters sources.
IEA Director says Europe has been importing a lot of Russian LNG to help economies; might be a high time to replace it with LNG from Qatar beginning 2027.
Geopolitics
Russia's Kremlin says President Putin is "okay" with European peacekeepers in Ukraine, refers to earlier statement that such a move would be unacceptable. When asked about a possible US-Russia rare earths deal, says the US needs rare earth minerals, and "Russia has a lot". Many steps need to be taken to restore trust between the US and Russia. When asked about the UN vote on Ukraine on Monday, says it sees the US taking a much more balanced stance. Says European stance on Ukraine may become more balanced as a result of contacts with the US.
US President Trump said he emphasised the importance of the critical minerals and rare earth deal with Ukraine in meeting with French President Macron, while Trump added that he is in serious discussions with Russian President Putin about ending the war and talks are proceeding very well. Trump also said he was talking with French President Macron about trade deals at the White House and will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky either this week or next to sign a minerals deal. Trump later said he had great conversations including with Russia on ending the Ukraine war and the meeting with French President Macron is another step forward towards ending the war.
French President Macron said they need something substantial for Ukraine and Europe, while he stated his message to US President Trump was to be careful and that they have to go fast but first need a truce in Ukraine. Macron also stated that he thinks he had a strong convergence with Trump on Ukraine and a truce could be reached in the coming weeks, as well as noted that it is feasible to establish a truce at least and start negotiating for peace. Furthermore, Macron said he is working with the UK on a UK-France proposal for presence to maintain peace with US backup and backstop, while he spoke with European leaders and that many are ready to be part of security guarantees.
UN General Assembly adopted the amended US-drafted Ukraine resolution that backs Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, while it approved all proposed European amendments to the US-drafted resolution on Ukraine and rejected the proposed Russian amendment to the US-drafted resolution on the Ukraine war anniversary. It was later reported that Russia failed at the UN Security Council to amend the US-drafted resolution on Ukraine and vetoed a European attempt to amend the US-drafted resolution on Ukraine, while the UN Security Council adopted the US-drafted resolution on Ukraine.
Poland scrambled aircraft to ensure airspace security after Russia launched strikes on Ukraine, while all of Ukraine was reportedly under air raid alerts as the air force warned of Russian missile attacks.
Russia Foreign Minister Lavrov to visit Iran on Tuesday, according to RIA.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Feb. Philadelphia Fed Non-Mfg, prior -9.1
09:00: Dec. S&P CS Composite-20 YoY, est. 4.41%, prior 4.33%
Dec. S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA, est. 0.40%, prior 0.41%
4Q House Price Purchase Index QoQ, est. 0.3%, prior 0.7%
10:00: Feb. Conf. Board Consumer Confidenc, est. 102.5, prior 104.1
Feb. Conf. Board Present Situation, prior 134.3
Feb. Conf. Board Expectations, prior 83.9
10:00: Feb. Richmond Fed Index, est. -3, prior -4
10:30: Feb. Dallas Fed Services Activity, prior 7.4
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Morning from what promises to be a relatively warm and sunny day in Lisbon. Two consequences of Brexit hit me last night. One I had to queue for 75 minutes at immigration with a British passport and secondly when I got to the counter the officer said that he shouldn't let me in as I have no blank spaces left on my passport. He squeezed a stamp on a full page and let me in and warned me to get a replacement immediately. So in my hotel room last night I had to book an emergency passport appointment before a US trip next week. I had no idea the passport was full. It's only been an issue since Brexit as previously no European travel got stamped. To get an appointment though I needed to take a passport photo of myself on my phone in a dimly lit hotel room. 25 attempts later and I finally managed to get one that the online portal approved after balancing a table on my bed, putting the iPhone on it, the camera timer on and running to stand in front of the blank wall. The glamour of work travel.
While I was travelling and taking selfies, US markets tried to recover yesterday but ultimately struggled with the Magnificent 7 (-1.40%) closing at its lowest level since early December, which in turn left the S&P 500 -0.50% lower. Europe managed to again outperform the US, though the STOXX 600 was still down -0.08% even as the DAX (+0.62%) advanced. And with more negative sentiment coming to the fore, US Treasuries rallied across the curve, with the 10yr yield (-3.1bps) closing at a two-month low of 4.40%. This morning its edged lower again to 4.375%.
Those election results from Germany were a key market focus yesterday, as investors reacted to Sunday’s vote. As a reminder, the conservative CDU/CSU are the largest group in the new Bundestag, but the only two-party coalition that can reach a majority are the CDU/CSU and the SPD, given that they’ve refused to cooperate with the AfD. A coalition between the two seemed to be the goal for the CDU/CSU yesterday, with CDU leader Friedrich Merz saying that “I am determined to hold constructive, good, swift talks with the Social Democrats”. That’s a combination Germany has seen frequently in the last couple of decades, with the two governing together for three of Angela Merkel’s four terms, including from 2013-21. However, it’s clear that the SPD’s position as the only party able to provide a majority for the CDU/CSU offers them leverage in any negotiations, and SPD co-leader Lars Klingbeil said that “Whether the SPD enters a government isn’t yet clear”.
In the meantime, there was continued speculation about whether there might be some sort of reform to the debt brake. As it stands, the centrist parties (CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens) are just short of the two-thirds majority required to change the constitution. They could achieve that threshold with the left-wing Die Linke, but they favour lower defence spending and have said they’d only vote for that if investments were made in infrastructure. So there’s theoretically a compromise you could reach where they agree to exempt infrastructure from the debt brake, and that could create more space for defence spending in the core budget.
Another idea gaining momentum yesterday was that the centrist parties could even reform the debt brake in the current Bundestag, where the different centrist groups already have a two-thirds majority, and Merz said that “The German Bundestag is able to make decisions at any time”, although current finance minister Joerg Kukies said that it would “be a questionable political signal if constitutional amendments were now made with an old majority”. While this debate is in its early stages, our Germany economists argue that markets should start pricing in some probability of meaningful debt-brake reform in the next few weeks. Indeed, Bloomberg reported after Europe went home that Merz has opened talks with the SPD for special defence spending of as much as EUR 200bn before a formal coalition deal is made and before the new legislature sits on March 24th.
In terms of the market reaction, German equities saw a clear outperformance relative to their European counterparts. After a topsy-turvy session, the DAX was +0.62% by the close, having been up more than +1% in the European morning but then briefly falling into the red amid a broader risk-off move early in the US session. There was a stronger performance for the MDAX index of mid-cap stocks, which are more domestically concentrated, but even there the index was up +2.83% before paring that back to close +1.52% higher. Looking at the specifics, expectations for higher defence spending meant that Rheinmetall (+6.40%) was the strongest performer in the DAX again, bringing its YTD advance to +54.80%.
In my CoTD yesterday which went out late due to technical issues I discussed how the election continued a global trend (especially in Europe) where the establishment parties combined hit a record low share of the vote. In Germany support for the CDU/CSU and SPD combined has never been lower at 45.0%, down from 91.2% at the peak in 1976. In the UK election last year the combined vote for Labour and the Conservatives was the lowest in over a century and in the French elections at a similar time we saw support for the far right, far left and centrists broadly equal. We think mainstream parties are suffering due to ever lower economic growth, which along with wider inequality means that an increasing share of the electorate must be, by definition, exposed to negative growth in their world. Concerns over issues like immigration and globalisation are likely symptoms of this rather than the root cause.
Finally on the election, the Euro itself was fairly subdued yesterday, only seeing a modest +0.10% move against the US Dollar. Our FX strategists published an update yesterday after the German election, where they stay euro bearish on balance. However, their conviction on a sub-parity drop for the euro is now lower than it was, mainly because of incoming US fiscal news and the market’s resilience to absorbing tariff announcements without building a risk premium. Nevertheless they also don’t see a breakout higher for EUR/USD given the lack of sufficiently clear positive catalysts from Europe, particularly given the prospect of further ECB easing and persistent tariff risk.
Elsewhere in Europe, there was a lot of focus on Ukraine yesterday, with growing noises that the Ukraine and the US were moving closer to some sort of minerals deal. Ukraine’s Deputy PM Olga Stefanishyna said that “Ukrainian and U.S. teams are in the final stages of negotiations”, with Trump saying later on that “It looks like we’re getting very close” and that Zelenskiy could visit Washington in the next week or two to sign an agreement. Earlier Bloomberg reported that a draft text would see the US commit to a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine. Separately, in a meeting with France’s Macron, Trump claimed that Russia’s Putin would accept European peacekeepers in Ukraine. Macron suggested that he and Trump made “substantive steps forward” as he stressed the need for security guarantees for Ukraine, though Trump avoided any direct assurances on this front. So we’ve seen a more constructive tone compared to last week’s concerns that US-Russia talks would leave Ukraine and Europe out in the cold, but the path towards ending Russia’s war in Ukraine is still far from clear.
As mentioned at the top risk assets saw a bit of volatility yesterday. In the US, the S&P 500 (-0.50%) closed beneath 6,000 for the first time since mid-January, extending its -1.71% slump last Friday. This decline came due to a late sell-off that in part followed Trump’s suggestion that the delayed tariffs against Canada and Mexico “are going forward on time, on schedule”. That said, Bloomberg later reported that the fate of the 25% levies was still to be determined. The US equity decline was driven by tech stocks, with the Magnificent 7 down -1.40% ahead of Nvidia (-3.09% yesterday) reporting its results after the US close tomorrow. Bear in mind that the market impact of Nvidia’s results have often proved to be as significant as US jobs reports over the last couple of years, so it’s still a big event on the calendar. There were some news stories over the weekend around Microsoft (-1.03%) cancelling some leases for data centers which raised concerns about excess capex spending.
Otherwise, US Treasuries put in a fresh rally yesterday, as the broader risk-off tone pushed yields lower. Indeed, the 10yr yield (-3.1bps) closed at its lowest since early December, at 4.40%, and the 10yr real yield (-4.2bps) moved back beneath the 2% mark again. That came as investors also dialled up their expectations for Fed rate cuts this year, with the amount priced in by the December meeting up +3.6bps to 50bps.Meanwhile in Europe, 10yr yields were much steadier, with those on 10yr bunds, OATs and BTPs all +0.7bps higher on the day.
Asian equity markets are weaker overnight. There was a Bloomberg report that the Trump administration is seeking further curbs in Chinese investments in strategic sectors including technology, and especially in chips. The move has led to a decline in Chinese technology shares with the Hang Seng dropping more than -1% initially and tech titans including Alibaba and Tencent emerging as the biggest losers. As I check my screens, the Hang Seng (-0.62%) has partially recovered some of its earlier losses with the Shanghai Composite (-0.25%) also recovering. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (-0.49%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.68%) are also trading lower with the Nikkei (-1.10%) leading the declines after reopening following yesterday’s holiday.
In monetary policy action, the Bank of Korea cut interest rates by 25 bps to 2.75%, its lowest since August 2022, as it strives to shore up economic growth amid weak domestic demand and uncertainties at home and abroad. The decision comes as South Korea continues to grapple with political uncertainty over the impeachment trial of President Yoon Suk Yeol.
There was very little other data yesterday, although Germany’s Ifo business climate indicator remained at 85.2 in February (vs. 85.8 expected). The expectations component did pick up to 85.4 (vs. 85.0 expected), but the current assessment reading fell back to 85.0 (vs. 86.3 expected).
To the day ahead now, and US data releases include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for February, the FHFA’s house price index for December, and the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for February. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Logan, Barr and Barkin, the ECB’s Nagel and Schnabel, and the BoE’s Pill.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 02/25/2025 - 07:30
https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/futures-drop-momentum-massacre-crushes-bitcoin
Trump Seeks Tougher Chip Controls On China To Curb Advancements
Trump Seeks Tougher Chip Controls On China To Curb Advancements
Asian main equity indexes declined on Tuesday, pressured by a mix of broad risk-off sentiment, US equity degrossing, unfavorable seasonality trends, some technical factors, and profit-taking. Fresh concerns over President Trump's 'America First' policies further weighed on sentiment.
A report last weekend indicated that the Trump administration directed the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US to restrict Chinese investments in strategic sectors to safeguard national security interests.
However, this note focuses on a new https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-25/trump-administration-seeks-more-restrictions-on-china-tech-weighs-nvidia-curbs
report detailing Trump's efforts to curb China's chip advancements as AI enthusiasm erupts in the world's second-largest economy alongside soaring AI CAPEX spending.
Individuals familiar with Trump's upcoming chip restrictions on China informed Bloomberg about what's coming down the pipe:
Trump officials recently met with their Japanese and Dutch counterparts about restricting Tokyo Electron Ltd. and ASML Holding NV engineers from maintaining semiconductor gear in China, according to people familiar with the matter. The aim, which was also a priority for Biden, is to see key allies match China curbs the US has placed on American chip-gear companies, including Lam Research Corp., KLA Corp. and Applied Materials Inc.
The meetings come in addition to early discussions in Washington about sanctions on specific Chinese companies, other people said. Some Trump officials also aim to further restrict the type of Nvidia Corp. chips that can be exported to China without a license, Bloomberg News has previously reported. They're also having early conversations about tightening existing curbs on the quantity of AI chips that can be exported globally without a license, said some of the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private.
The timing of the new chip restrictions could "take months," according to Bloomberg, noting, "It remains to be seen whether allies will be more receptive" to additional restrictions on China's chip industry.
Goldman's Ananya Prakash in London commented on the ongoing trade situation:
Press reporting that Trump's administration is looking at tougher semiconductor curbs. GIR notes that the release highlights potential areas for increased scrutiny including US outbound investment to China, Chinese ADR standards, and companies on the Chinese Military Companies List. The memorandum suggests tighter controls on certain sectors like semiconductors and AI, possible changes to tax treaties, and stricter investment reviews.
Tokyo Electron shares closed down nearly 5% after the Bloomberg report.
Prakash provided clients with more color on semis action today:
Semis basket (GSSBSEMI) down 2.1% this morning, with its top constituents all down on the day as the US sketches out tougher versions of existing US semiconductor curbs against Beijing and pressures the Netherlands and Japan to escalate restrictions on China's chip industry. Most notably ASML down 3% today, following the news that Trump's team met with Japanese and Dutch counterparts, to discuss restricting ASML's engineers from servicing/maintaining their hardware, which is key in producing microchips.
The chart we're tracking is the PHLX Semiconductor Sector, which is trading 15% below its July 2024 peak.
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Last week, Goldman's Fred Yin and Shubham Ghosh asked clients if https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-exceptionalism-over-alibaba-soars-ai-us-china-tech-valuation-gap-must-narrow
as the AI boom shifts to China...
US Exceptionalism Over? Alibaba Soars On AI As US-China Tech Valuation Gap "Must Narrow" https://t.co/2utJKaXsz0
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1893022934492418424?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Plus, there are mounting concerns about Microsoft data center order cancellations, per a new TD Cowen report. However, MSFT "https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/channel-checks-indicate-data-center-cancellations-report-bursts-ai-bubble
" the report.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 02/25/2025 - 07:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/trump-seeks-tougher-chip-controls-china-curb-advancements
NCAAP Gives Kamala An Award... No One Knows Why
NCAAP Gives Kamala An Award... No One Knows Why
Authored by https://headlineusa.com/author/lcornelio/
,
The NAACP awarded former Vice Presidenthttps://headlineusa.com/tag/kamala-harris/
on Saturday one of its most prestigious honors, the Chairman’s Award - months after voters overwhelmingly rejected her presidential candidacy for the second time in a row.
Kamala Harris just got an award for being the first black woman to certify her own election loss:https://t.co/p4plKZDTsE
— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1893526531751731308?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The https://headlineusa.com/tag/NAACP/
, which aired on BET, recognized Harris’s supposed commitment to equality, justice and progress, despite tenure as California attorney general and San Franciso district attorney, where she jailed many black Americans for petty crimes.
Most infamously, Harris oversaw nearlyhttps://www.axios.com/2024/08/03/kamala-harris-prosecutor-district-attorney-record
for marijuana possession, yet she later appeared on The Breakfast Club to boast about her past use of the drug.
Seemingly unable to highlight a non-existent pro-justice record, Harris spent much of her speech throwing indirect jabs at President Donald Trump—the man who defeated her in the https://headlineusa.com/tag/2024-election/
.
“While we have no illusions about what we are up against in this chapter in our American story, this chapter will be written not simply by whoever occupies the oval office nor by the wealthiest among us. The American story will be written by you. Written by us. By we the people,” Harris pontificated.
This evening, I was honored to accept the NAACP’s Chairman’s Award.
I grew up inspired by the work of the NAACP — by all those who took up the fight for justice, equality, and opportunity. Their example is part of the reason I chose a life of public service.
At this moment,… https://t.co/lmRFCLUQTq
— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) https://twitter.com/KamalaHarris/status/1893564154071654751?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
In true Harris fashion, she continued her metaphor-heavy word salad:
“Some see the flames on our horizons, the rising waters in our cities, the shadows gathering over our democracy and ask, ‘What do we do now?’”
She then offered what sounded like a reprise of her failed presidential campaign message.
“But we know exactly what to do, because we have done it before. And we will do it again. We use our power. We organize, mobilize. We educate. We advocate. Our power has never come from having an easy path,” she preached.
Despite the loud cheers at the NAACP Image Awards, the applause seemed detached from the reality of how most Americans view Harris, given her two failed bids for the presidency and ongoing low approval ratings.
In 2020, Harris unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination for president but withdrew before voting even began.
Voters rejected her candidacy once again even after inheriting the nomination from her embattled boss, former President Joe Biden.
As of Jan. 20, 2025, Harris had an average disapproval rating of 52.7 percent, according to https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/kamala-harris/
.
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Tue, 02/25/2025 - 06:55
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/ncaap-gives-kamala-award-no-one-knows-why
Born American? A Look At 'Birthright Citizenship'
Born American? A Look At 'Birthright Citizenship'
,
Our political class is aflame, and our lawyer-ocracy is up in arms over President Trump’s executive order limiting the scope of “birthright” (or “soil-based”) citizenship to children of permanent legal residents. Children born to tourists, students from other countries, and others here on a short-term basis, plus people here illegally, are no longer to be regarded as citizens of the United States merely because their mothers happened to be on American soil when they were born.
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Is that constitutional? Does the U.S. Constitution demand that virtually everyone born on our soil (basically everyone except for the children of diplomats who, by convention, are under their home country’s laws) be considered a citizen by birth?
Most lawyers and law professors think that the answer is yes. But is it quite so clear? The 14th Amendment reads: “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.” Most of the discussion of this question thus far has focused on the meaning of the phrase “subject to the jurisdiction thereof,” and the prevailing view is that it was meant to include everyone who was, generally speaking, subject to American law. Although the Supreme Court has never ruled on the case of a child born to foreigners who are only here briefly, it has suggested that it would include them in the set of people who are citizens at birth.
Critics of this position hold that the amendment applies to cases in which the U.S. has complete jurisdiction over the person and note that there are ways that the scope of American jurisdiction over citizens and permanent residents is different than for people who are merely passing through – in being subject to the draft (and there had been a draft shortly before the amendment was ratified), to jury duty, and to many taxes (particularly since the people increased American jurisdiction by adding an income tax to the constitution in 1913), among other ways.
These discussions often turn to the debates in the Senate when they were drafting the amendment before sending it to the states so that the people, via their state legislatures, could decide if they wanted to add it to the Constitution. That’s a useful exercise, and it also would be helpful to see more discussion of what the people understood the amendment to mean when they had their state legislatures ratify it. Constitutional law is not legislation. The Constitution, including the amendments to it are the supreme law of the land because we, the people, made them so; so what we understood ourselves to be doing when we approved a text carries more weight than what senators understood themselves to be recommending to the people for approval. Our lawyers tend to think that’s too complicated. But it is not our job to make life easy for lawyers.
As a logical and grammatical matter, the full sentence “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the state wherein they reside” only applies to people who already reside in a state. “And” in a sentence, per basic rules of grammar and logical construction, means both parts must be true for the full statement to be true. A person who does not reside in a state is not included among the set of people described by the language of the sentence. That is the strict reading of the text. If we are to take the sentence as one having a coherent meaning as a sentence in the English language, it implies that “the jurisdiction thereof” is limited to the kind of jurisdiction that only applies to people who “reside” in a state. Thus far, our discussion has barely considered this aspect of the text. (As I was finishing up the essay, I finally happened upon one article by Andrew Hyman, hot off the press in late January, that takes this into account, but that’s a rare exception.) Can that be a logical reading? It’s actually a fairly clear line. Tourists and others here on a temporary basis are not subject to U.S. jurisdiction in many ways. They don’t have several of the responsibilities of citizens – being subject to the draft, jury duty, paying income taxes, etc. Full-time residents who live and work here are a much closer call. The Civil War era draft included aliens who intended to become citizens. They are subject to more jurisdiction than tourists. And those here in violation of our laws are yet another category.
What is the implication of this? Can it be correct, given the lawyerly majority on the other side? Does it even make sense? Such a reading means that the text would not include people who resided in the Colorado territory before it became a state in 1876. The article Could they have meant that? Hyman finds that the issue was raised in debates over the text of the Amendment in Congress, and a change to include territories was rejected. It would not be unusual for judges, faced with the case of a person born in a federal territory, to decide that the text is imperfect and, therefore, to decide that those who reside in federal territory would also be included. (Implicitly, they would be adding “or territory” to the phrase “state wherein they reside.” Judges often do that sort of thing.) But when they do that, they are adding to the text, bringing what they take to be the spirit of the law, and using it to add to or modify the actual text. Adding those merely passing through the U.S. would be a much larger judicial edit to the text.
As noted above, the key precedent on this subject is an 1898 case, U.S. v. Wong Kim Ark (decided 7-2 by almost exactly the same majority that gave us the execrable “separate but equal” doctrine of Plessy v. Ferguson in 1896), brought by the child of full-time residents of the U.S. who were Chinese nationals. They resided in California when Wong Kim Ark was born; hence the question of how far the line went and whether it included people who don’t reside in a state at birth was not under the court’s consideration in the decision.
Since at least the middle of the 20th century, or perhaps the Civil Rights era of the 1960s, the 14th Amendment has been read to mean that everyone born in the U.S., except those born to diplomats, is a citizen by birth, and as noted, there is a strong consensus among our lawyers that that is the most natural, and therefore correct, reading of the citizenship clause of the 14th Amendment. Interestingly, a Google search finds that the term “birthright citizenship” was almost completely absent from public discussion until roughly 1980. The term may very well have been brought into common use to rebrand the 14th Amendment, and did its work so well that it’s now taken as the common constitutional term. Before that, the law might not have been understood to apply to quite so many cases, and perhaps our language has followed.
According to John Eastman – a leader of the move to limit the cases in which soil makes a U.S. citizen – when we ended a massive guest worker program in the 1920s at the beginning of the Depression, we sent children born to the temporary workers out of the country with their parents, and, apparently, no one said it raised a constitutional problem, implying that people in that era read the 14th Amendment as not including the children of temporary workers among the people who are citizens at birth due to the location of their mother when she gave birth to them.
Lawyers also like to say that our law follows British common law in making all people born on our soil U.S. citizens. We, like the British, follow the Roman jus soli – the law of soil. Yet that term is entirely absent in Blackstone’s “Commentaries,” the leading British legal treatise of the 18th century. It’s also absent in the basic edition of writings of Edward Coke, the leading English jurist of the 17th century, even in Calvin’s Case (1608), a central precedent in this area of English law. To call it jus soli is likely a category error, imposing Roman law logic on Britain’s common law. British law is about allegiance, not citizenship. A Briton by birth has obligations to the king and has no right to choose to cease to be the king’s subject without the king’s consent. As all land in England belonged, per a legal fiction, to the king, being on the king’s soil was a sign that one was under the king’s protection. But location at birth was not the only such sign. Coke’s language in Calvin’s Case seems to deride the notion that soil is fundamental. It’s about being under the king’s protection, and therefore owing him personal allegiance, in a quasi-feudal sense. America, by contrast, began by rejecting that very concept. Recall that that case was about a person born in Scotland after King James VI of Scotland became King James I of England, making him king of two kingdoms at the same time. The court held that because allegiance was to the person of the king, not to England per se, a Scot born after James became King of England can inherit land in England. In America we don’t begin with the premise that lands belong to the government first, and to individual owners second. Moreover, from the start, as a matter of principle, we have embraced citizenship instead of subjecthood, a change that includes the right to choose one’s nationality, the very right the king denied us. It was an act of treason to sign the Declaration of Independence. Someone born on the king’s soil did not have the right to do that without the king’s consent. America has always rejected the law of allegiance. Every American, unlike every Briton then, has had the right to choose not to be an American citizen anymore.
Presumably, changes in the metes and bounds of who is a national by birth follow from that change from subject to citizen, meaning it’s wrong to assume we presumptively follow the common law of allegiance in all other regards. If the principle at the heart of our regime is republican, not monarchical, it follows that the law of citizenship will have a connection to free republican principles in a way that the king’s law allegiance did not. No one disputes that being born on U.S. soil is, generally speaking, an indication that someone is an American citizen by birth, and no one denies that being born on the king’s soil made one a British subject. Similarly no one denies that the child of an American citizen is generally a U.S. citizen. The question is how far the rules extend.
Our first Naturalization Act, passed by the First Congress in 1790, declared that “the children of citizens of the United States that may be born beyond Sea, or out of the limits of the United States, shall be considered as natural born Citizens: Provided, that the right of citizenship shall not descend to persons whose fathers have never been resident in the United States.” That’s very interesting language. It rejects allegiance and the false binary law of soil or law of blood (jus sanguinis) when constrained by republican principles that are equally “natural.” (In other words, when people tried to claim that Sens. John McCain, Ted Cruz, or Barack Obama were not eligible to be president due to the circumstances of their birth, real or imagined, they forget that the laws of the founding era suggest otherwise.) The child of any American citizen is, per the First Congress, a natural-born citizen, and eligible to be elected president. Note that it says citizenship only follows blood for one generation. It only applies to the children of active citizens, not those who have implicitly repudiated their nationality by living permanently abroad. It is a law for citizens in that sense, not a law based upon blood. That’s where “fidelity” comes in. A law of blood makes that irrelevant. The same logic would likely apply to the nature and extent of the case of soil – hence those who have chosen to “reside” in the United States.
After drafting the Declaration of Independence, Jefferson returned to Virginia and worked on a comprehensive revision of the laws to make them accord with the change from monarchy to republic. His new law of citizenship, approved by Virginia’s legislature, ensured that all children born to current citizens are citizens, and he added, “and all who shall hereafter migrate into the same; and shall before any court of record give satisfactory proof by their own oath or affirmation, that they intend to reside therein, and moreover shall give assurance of fidelity to the commonwealth.” Note the language: Those who make it clear that they intend to reside in and who renounce their fidelity to other lands (not an explicit requirement of the king’s law, according to which the king made you an offer of subjecthood you could not refuse) are citizens, and their children are citizens at birth. That’s the very distinction the Civil War era draft law made, interestingly.
In other words, ascertaining the limit of the law is not a question that can be addressed by the simplistic question of whether we follow a law of soil or a law of blood. The logic of the rule is itself part of the rule. Under the king’s law of allegiance, one set of metes and bounds follows to describe the set of people who are born his subject, and under a law of citizenship, it’s likely that there might be a different set of metes and bounds regarding who is a citizens at birth. It might be, however, that we never really worked through the full implications of that until we were working on the 14th Amendment.
All of that might, on the other hand, have only a limited amount of relevance to the question of children of tourists and of others who don’t “reside” in a state or on U.S. territory (if we expand it to that). Why not? Because we are talking about an amendment, not a full statement of principles or of law. The 14th Amendment was designed to ensure that black Americans were U.S. citizens. In the Dred Scott decision of 1857, the Supreme Court ruled that black Americans, slave or free, were not and could not be U.S. citizens. The first sentence of the 14th Amendment overturned that decision. No one disputes that.
Legal language is general. Did the language securing citizenship to black Americans also secure citizenship for a child born to people who are merely passing through the United States on a short trip? Or when working here on a short-term basis? How far does language guaranteeing citizenship to all who are “subject to the jurisdiction” of the U.S., even if only in the manner of those who “reside,” extend? And beyond that, nothing in the text says that’s a limit. If U.S. law in 1868, when we ratified the 14th Amendment, already held that children born to people in the U.S. as tourists or on a brief business trip were citizens at birth, the 14th Amendment would, obviously, not change that. If some states followed a broader rule and other states followed a narrower rule before then, it presents a complicated question. There is one case from New York state that declares that a child born to parents who were briefly in New York on a trip is a citizen by birth.
But given how federal our republic then was, it’s likely there was no one single federal common law at the time on this subject, so one precedent from one state, or even a couple of states, would not be definitive. One or two precedents in one or two states in the decades between the founding and the Civil War is not enough to definitively prove much of anything. That is why the actual language that we the people approved when we ratified the 14th Amendment matters. It is not the last word on the subject, but the full first sentence of the 14th Amendment, read as a coherent sentence, is certainly worthy of more consideration than it has been given thus far.
Richard Samuelson is an American historian and associate professor of government at Hillsdale College, Washington, D.C., campus.
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Mon, 02/24/2025 - 23:25
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/born-american-look-birthright-citizenship
The Ukraine War Will Only End On Russia's Terms, Lavrov Says
The Ukraine War Will Only End On Russia's Terms, Lavrov Says
It's been three full years since the full-on Russian invasion of Ukraine kicked off on February 24, 2022. At this point, it's become clear to all that Russian forces control the battlefield, amid steady ongoing gains in the Donbass region.
Even as talks with the US progress, Moscow has made clear on Monday that it will only accept a peace settlement which "suits" its interests.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov issued the words while on an official visit to Turkey, and warned that European countries are trying to sabotage Trump efforts at peace.
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He he emphasized that Moscow stands ready and willing to negotiate with Ukraine, Europe or "any representatives who in good faith would like to help achieve peace."
"But we will stop hostilities only when these negotiations produce a firm and sustainable result that suits the Russian Federation," https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/24/russia-will-end-ukraine-war-only-on-its-terms-lavrov-says-a88140
alongside his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan.
Among the proposals that might stymie progress on negotiations is https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/europe-working-plans-send-30000-troops-ukraine-trump-talks-drawdown-continent
a European army of some 30,000 to patrol a buffer zone inside Ukraine. Moscow has consistently rejected that NATO troops would be present along the war-torn border.
Trump himself has shown interest in such a peacekeeping force, especially as US troops would not be part of it. Put Putin will likely fear this is just recipe for another potential future showdown.
In separate statements Monday, Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Monday charged Europe with obstructing good faith peace efforts.
"The Europeans continue on the path of a sanctions nosedive, on the path of conviction in the need to continue the war," Peskov said in reaction to the EU imposing a new round of sanctions on Moscow.
"This conviction of the Europeans completely contrasts with the mindset of finding a settlement on Ukraine, which we are now doing with the Americans," he added. Reuters reviews of the new punitive https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/new-eu-sanctions-target-airlines-operating-domestic-flights-russia-2025-02-24/
:
The European Union's latest sanctions against Moscow include a ban on third-country airlines flying to the 27-nation bloc if they carry out domestic flights in Russia, the European Commission https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_585
on Monday.
The EU's 16th https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eus-16th-package-sanctions-targets-aluminium-shadow-fleet-2025-02-19/
against Russia includes a ban on primary aluminum imports and the sale of gaming consoles, while also listing a cryptocurrency exchange and dozens of vessels of the so-called shadow fleet used to evade sanctions.
At this point both the US and Russian sides plan to continue conducting the talks which began last week in Riyadh. Presumably neither Ukrainian nor European representatives will be at the table for the next rounds.
.https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) https://twitter.com/RapidResponse47/status/1894118033196568983?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Each side appeared satisfied with how the first engagement went, with the Kremlin hailing the 'successful' betterment of relations, which has involved more staff returning to each respective embassy.
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Mon, 02/24/2025 - 23:00
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-war-will-only-end-russias-terms-lavrov-says
Record Foreign Demand For Stellar 2Y Auction
Record Foreign Demand For Stellar 2Y Auction
Amid rising fears that the Fed's next move may be a rate hike instead of a cut, it appears that bond buyers - and especially foreign bond buyers - did not get the memo, and instead today's just concluded sale of $69 billion in 2Y paper was one of the strongest on record.
Starting at the top, the auction stopped at 4.169% at its 1pm close out time; this was down from 4.211% last month and also stopped 1.1bps through the 4.18% When Issued, following last month's modest tail. This was the third biggest stop through in the past two years as shown in the chart below.
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The Bid to Cover was less exciting: at 2.56% it was down 10bps from last month's 2.66% and was the lowest since October, which is why it was well below the six-auction average of 2.66%.
But what the auction lacked in BTC, it more than made up for thanks to foreign demand, because with 85.5% of the auction awarded to Indirects, i.e., foreign buyers, this was the highest Indirect award on record.
?itok=MGT1OjOk
And with Directs awarded 7.6%, Dealers were left holding just 6.9% of the auction, the lowest on record!
Overall, this was a stellar auction, and on news of the break the 10Y yield, already near session lows, dropped to a fresh low for the day, just below 4.40% and likely set to drop even more.
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Mon, 02/24/2025 - 13:31
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/record-foreign-demand-stellar-2y-auction
Judge Blocks Education Department, OPM From Sharing Data With DOGE
Judge Blocks Education Department, OPM From Sharing Data With DOGE
(emphasis ours),
A federal judge on Feb. 24 blocked two agencies from sharing sensitive information with employees of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
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“The U.S. Department of Education; Denise L. Carter, the Acting Secretary of Education; and their officers, agents, servants, employees, and attorneys are ENJOINED from disclosing the personally identifiable information of the plaintiffs and the members of the plaintiff organizations to any DOGE affiliates,” U.S. District Judge Deborah L. Boardman https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25542426-tro-order-in-aft-case/
in a 33-page order.
The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) and its employees are also forbidden from disclosing the same information to DOGE workers, the judge said.
The temporary restraining order is in effect until March 10 as the case proceeds. It could be extended, converted into a preliminary injunction, or allowed to expire.
The American Federation of Teachers and other groups recently asked the court to block officials with the OPM, Department of Education (DOE), and U.S. Department of Treasury from conveying sensitive records to DOGE employees.
Allowing DOGE access to the records endangers the privacy rights of veterans and other people represented by the groups, the organizations https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25542419-aft-motion-for-tro/
in their request to the federal court in Maryland.
Government lawyers argued that the judge should reject the motion for a restraining order because government officials have not violated the plaintiffs’ privacy.
“At the heart of Plaintiffs’ theory is the baseless allegation that ‘DOGE representatives’ at the Defendant agencies are somehow outside the category of federal employees, or outside the category of federal employees in their respective agencies. Neither criticism withstands scrutiny. The Privacy Act therefore expressly allows disclosure of information protected under that statute in the circumstances of this case,” the lawyers https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25542422-government-opposition-to-aft-tro-request/
in a filing.
Boardman said that even if officials have only been sharing information with other government employees, it still violates the plaintiffs’ right to have their sensitive personal information kept private if the employees are not authorized to access the data.
“Education and OPM possess a significant amount of detailed information about the plaintiffs’ lives. To say that the plaintiffs suffer no cognizable injury when their personal information is improperly disclosed to government employees would nullify their interest in preventing unlawful government intrusion into their private affairs. The unauthorized disclosure of the plaintiffs’ sensitive personal information is an injury in fact,” the judge wrote.
While plaintiffs cannot receive relief under the Privacy Act, the judge said later, they can under the Administrative Procedure Act, which bars the government from taking steps that are not in accordance with the law.
“The plaintiffs have shown that Education and OPM likely violated the Privacy Act by disclosing their personal information to DOGE affiliates without their consent,” Boardman said.
The act prohibits agencies from disclosing “any record which is contained in a system of records by any means of communication to any person, or to another agency, except pursuant to a written request by, or with the prior written consent of, the individual to whom the record pertains.”
In addition to the American Federation of Teachers, a union that represents some 1.8 million people, the other plaintiffs in the case are the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, the International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers, the National Active and Retired Federal Employees Association, and the National Federation of Federal Employees.
The order expressly names Adam Ramada, a DOGE employee who said in a declaration filed in the case that he and five other DOGE employees have been working with the DOE to audit contracts, grants, and programs “for waste, fraud, and abuse.”
“In addition, we help senior Department leadership obtain access to accurate data and data analytics to inform their policy decisions at the Department,” Ramada said in the filing
Ramada said he learned that one of the six employees had not yet completed training on ethics or information security and had been directed to complete the training.
A DOE official previously told the court that six employees associated with DOGE went through background checks and other procedures before gaining access to DOE systems. OPM officials had told the court that all personnel with access to sensitive OPM records are employees of OPM, although some also work for other agencies.
DOGE employees have also been helping other agencies, such as the U.S. Department of Treasury, in line with President Donald Trump’s executive orders.
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Mon, 02/24/2025 - 13:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/judge-blocks-education-department-opm-sharing-data-doge
Europe Working On Plans To Send 30,000 Troops To Ukraine As Trump Talks Drawdown
Europe Working On Plans To Send 30,000 Troops To Ukraine As Trump Talks Drawdown
European leaders have been urging that the United States must https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4z4w3v5y8o
any Ukraine peace deal to prevent the country from ever being attacked by Russia again. Of course, this means a military backstop; however, all signs point to Trump wanting to reduce the American troop presence in Europe, in favor of the Europeans doing more to provide for their own security.
Some European officials have already attacked this policy as the US signing off on Ukraine's "surrender" to Moscow. For example, days ago Finnish MEP member Mika Aaltola of the European People's Party claimed that the Trump administration "has given us three weeks to agree on terms for Ukraine's surrender." Aaltola added: "If we don't, the United States will withdraw from Europe."
These words also came around the time of an https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/week-upended-us-ukraine-relations-rcna192407
report which cited US officials who said Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth privately informed Ukrainian officials that Washington may significantly reduce its troop presence in Europe.
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This as President Zelensky has been urging against this, recently asserting that over 100,000 European troops could be needed in Ukraine to prevent another future war. He's described that this would be necessary in the scenario that Ukraine doesn't get a path to NATO membership.
Weekend reports indicate that Europe is readying a proposed plan to send at least 30,000 of its troops to Ukraine in a peacekeeping capacity in the wake of any truce deal. The report says this would be "with the US providing technical, logistics, and weapons support" - but crucially no American boots on the ground, as Trump has repeatedly promised. Meanwhile:
TRUMP: US BACKING OF SOME KIND FOR EUROPEAN TROOPS IN UKRAINE
The NY Times reports Monday of a European scramble to fill the US void as Trump signals draw back https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/24/world/europe/europe-ukraine-anniversary.html
:
European leaders are racing to try to figure out how to fill a potential void — in Ukraine and in continental security as a whole — as President Trump’s White House talks of dialing back American support and troop numbers in Europe.
...At the same time, European foreign ministers will be https://mzv.gov.cz/jnp/en/issues_and_press/press_releases/minister_lipavsky_to_attend_the_eu.html
in Brussels, where they are expected to debate how much to send to Kyiv in their next support package.
That plan could end up totaling more than 20 billion euros, according to two people familiar with the discussions who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
Currently France and the UK under Starmer are leading the way in advancing such plans to send European troops to Ukraine.
NBC has more details on what this might look like practically in the https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/week-upended-us-ukraine-relations-rcna192407
:
But Western officials say what’s being discussed is a “reassurance force,” not an army of peacekeepers posted along the 600-mile (1,000-kilometer) front line in Ukraine's east.
The proposal supported by the United Kingdom and France would see fewer than 30,000 European troops on the ground in Ukraine — away from the front line at key infrastructure sites such as nuclear power plants — backed by Western air and sea power.
Under the plan, the front line would largely be monitored remotely, with drones and other technology. Air power based outside Ukraine — perhaps in Poland or Romania — would be in reserve to deter breaches and reopen Ukrainian airspace to commercial flights.
The report adds, "That could include American air power." But European planners are dreaming if they think Moscow would actually go for this.
Some have suggested this is all about sabotaging efforts at quick negotiated peace...
🇺🇸🇬🇧🇺🇦 British PM Starmer will present Trump with a plan to send 30,000 European peacekeepers to Ukraine.
Poltava, Kryvyi Rih and Dnipropetrovsk are planned to be the main bases for the European troops.
That is just a sabotage of the agreement, since Putin will not accept this. https://t.co/3tpAJZ6Npi
— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1892573166070833663?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
From the start of the Kremlin contemplating negotiations, President Putin has made clear that Russia will not tolerate Western armies on the ground in Ukraine. Moscow has rejected as a non-starter any plans which put NATO forces along its border. This is especially given Russia is in the driver's seat regarding the war in Donbass, and will be able to dictate terms... at least much more so than the West.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 02/24/2025 - 13:00
Illegal Aliens Loot US Trains In Mojave Desert For High-Value Nike Sneakers
Illegal Aliens Loot US Trains In Mojave Desert For High-Value Nike Sneakers
Organized criminal gangs have carried out a series of sophisticated train heists targeting BNSF freight trains in the Mojave Desert along the California-Arizona corridor. The thieves have targeted double-stack container cars, specifically containers carrying high-value Nike sneakers.
reported thieves stealthily boarded eastbound freight trains in the lonely stretches of the Mojave Desert at least ten times and stole millions of dollars in sneakers and other goods since last March. Nike sneaker thefts have topped $2 million.
Here's more from the report:
New sneaker releases may have touched off at least some of the recent incidents. In Perrin, Ariz., thieves allegedly cut an air brake hose on a BNSF freight train on Jan. 13 and unloaded 1,985 pairs of unreleased Nikes worth more than $440,000, according to a criminal complaint filed in US District Court in Phoenix. Many were Nigel Sylvester x Air Jordan 4s, which won't be available to the public until March 14 and are expected to retail at $225 per pair, the complaint states.
Keith Lewis, vice president of operations at Verisk's CargoNet and a deputy sheriff in Arizona, explained to the newspaper how the whole theft operation works:
Theft crews typically scout high-value merchandise on rail lines that parallel Interstate 40 by boarding slow-moving trains, such as when they are changing tracks and opening containers.
Lewis said the thieves are sometimes tipped off to valuable shipments by confederates working at warehouses or trucking companies. Other times they simply look for containers with high-security locks, which they cut with reciprocating saws or bolt cutters, a Homeland Security Investigations special agent said in affidavits filed in federal court.
Once the desired loot is found, the thieves alert "follow vehicles," which track the train. The stolen goods are tossed off the train after it comes to a halt — either for a scheduled stop or because an air hose has been cut or control wires inside signal boxes have been sabotaged, said the federal agent, Brynna Cooke.
The cargo is then loaded into box trucks, or hidden in nearby brush until they arrive — provided the surveillance crews that are following the train don't detect law enforcement, Cooke said. These tactics are often employed by transnational criminal groups that consist primarily of Mexican citizens from Sinaloa, she said.
The latest figures from the Association of American Railroads show that railroad thefts surged to 65,000 in 2024, a 40% increase from the previous year, costing major railroads $100 million.
?itok=Ed3IqT-U
According to a recent release from the https://www.justice.gov/usao-az/pr/eleven-defendants-including-nine-aliens-illegally-united-states-charged-possessing-over
, illegal aliens from Mexico have been responsible for some of these train thefts:
Criminal organizations that specialize in stealing from trains, which consist primarily of Mexican citizens with connections to the Mexican State of Sinaloa...
In other words, cartels...
President Trump and Border Czar Tom Homan have made it clear that they https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-border-czar-were-going-wipe-drug-cartels-face-earth
. Deploying US military forces to secure the border is the first line of defense in restoring law and order.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 02/24/2025 - 07:45
DC Mayor Bowser Rejects Trump's Suggestion That Federal Government Take Over The City
DC Mayor Bowser Rejects Trump's Suggestion That Federal Government Take Over The City
(emphasis ours),
Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser spoke out on Feb. 20 against President Donald Trump’s suggestion that the federal government should assume control of the city she governs.
?itok=9YLYPsva
“Of course, it’s frustrating, and we think it’s also wrong,” Bowser said at a press conference.
Bowser’s response comes one day after Trump’s comments, made amid criticisms of the high rate of crime, graffiti, and homelessness in the United States’ capital city.
“I think we should take over Washington, D.C. … I think that we should run it strong, run it with law and order, make it flawlessly beautiful,” he told reporters on Air Force One on Feb. 19.
The District of Columbia is currently governed by the mayor and its City Council, whose legislative and budget decisions are subject to the oversight of Congress. This form of government was established by the Home Rule Act, passed in 1973.
To wrest control of the city from the mayor would take another act of Congress. On Feb. 6, Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) introduced legislation to do just that.
The Bringing Oversight to Washington and Safety to Every Resident (BOWSER) Act would end Home Rule in the District, one year after its passage.
“Washington is now known for its homicides, rapes, drug overdoses, violence, theft, and homelessness,” Ogles said in a https://www.lee.senate.gov/2025/2/lee-ogles-introduce-bowser-act-to-end-dc-home-rule
criticizing the city’s leadership.
Bowser said she is not sure if the legislation would make it through both chambers of Congress, despite Republican majorities.
“Look, most of the people in the Congress know this: that we are a well-run city. We balance our budgets. We have triple-A bond rating. We have the No. 1 park system. We have the fastest-improving urban school district.”
While she wouldn’t go into specifics about her conversations with Trump, Bowser said she had previously expressed to him that she believed the current system of governance was best, and that she walked away from those meetings with the impression that his main concerns were “infrastructure and homelessness and—to a lesser degree—public safety.”
“There is really not a lot of space between us on focusing on holding violent offenders accountable in the District of Columbia,” she said.
She also noted that when Trump departed the district in 2020, the city was still dealing with the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“I think he still has a picture of COVID-era D.C., and he returns to a D.C. that is … very much a post-COVID environment where the issues with homeless encampments is much diminished—not completely solved—but much diminished from the D.C. that he left,” she said.
She said the city has cut the number of homeless encampments in half since last year.
Trump and Bowser’s comments highlight an ongoing tug-of-war between those who share the president’s view, and those who—like Bowser—want the district to become the 51st state, with full autonomy.
“The only way we’re not in this position is when we become a state,” she said.
“As long as we have limited Home Rule in this city—yes you have elected officials—but as long as we have limited Home Rule, we’re always vulnerable to the whims of the Congress or a president.”
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Mon, 02/24/2025 - 07:20
Xi & Putin Hold Call On Ukraine War Anniversary Amid Signs Of Peace Talks
Xi & Putin Hold Call On Ukraine War Anniversary Amid Signs Of Peace Talks
Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone on Monday, according to Chinese state media, as the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine is today. The conversation occurred just a day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reached out to President Donald Trump, requesting a meeting to https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zelensky-rejects-trumps-draft-deal-take-half-ukraines-mineral-feserves
amid increasing prospects for a peace deal.
cited state broadcaster China Central Television, which said that Xi and Putin spoke via telephone on Monday afternoon "at the request of the latter."
CCTV quoted Xi as saying that China and Russia share a "unique strategic value" that is "not aimed at any third party or influenced by any third party."
?itok=b5GtNhg_
Recall that China and Russia formed a "no limits" partnership in the days before Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Xi considers Putin an "ally," and the two have met dozens of times over the past decade.
The call comes one day after Zelensky spoke at a forum in Kyiv about Ukraine's future. He called for Trump to solidify a mineral deal with his country. The Ukrainian president would step down if a peace deal materializes or his country is accepted into NATO.
Zelensky also demanded that Trump visit Kyiv first before meeting with Putin. If Trump were to meet with Putin first, Zelensky cautioned, "there would be disbelief in the United States… It would be bad for US society."
With preparations underway for a face-to-face meeting between Trump and Putin, this would mark a massive shift from warmongering Western officials who have attempted to isolate Moscow from the world's global economy over its invasion of Ukraine. And these officials were hellbent on sparking World War III.
"The question is about starting to move toward normalizing relations between our countries, finding ways to resolve the most acute and potentially very, very dangerous situations, of which there are many, Ukraine among them," Russia's deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov told reporters on Saturday.
Bloomberg noted, "The readout of Monday's call said Beijing was happy to see the efforts made by Moscow to resolve the war in Ukraine."
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told reporters over the weekend that Beijing would welcome direct communications between Putin and Trump and that the "window for peace is opening up."
The "no limits" partnership between China and Russia remains a significant concern for the West, as the Biden-Harris regime's weak foreign policy only pushed the two great powers closer, economically and militarily.
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Mon, 02/24/2025 - 06:55
FBI Freak Out As Dan Bongino Named Deputy Director
FBI Freak Out As Dan Bongino Named Deputy Director
On Sunday evening, President Donald Trump announced that former Secret Service agent and conservative talk show host Dan Bongino will become the new deputy director of the FBI - the agency that helped Obama and Hillary Clinton set Donald Trump us with the Russia Collusion hoax - which included leaks to the press, fabricating evidence, and die-hard deep state servants who vowed to destroy our president.
And now - Bongino and newly minted FBI Director Kash Patel are in charge...
?itok=gxyBVTyY
Thank you Mr. President, Attorney General Bondi, and Director Patel. https://t.co/bJqIDbWLEE
— Dan Bongino (@dbongino) https://twitter.com/dbongino/status/1893839865864745168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
...which is not sitting well with current and former agency officials - or deep state journalists like NBC's Ken Dilanian, who reports that the FBI Agents Association struck out against Bongino's selection.
Without naming Bongino directly, the Association lashed out over the fact that the Deputy Director has typically been an active Special Agent.
"The FBI Deputy Director should continue to be an on-board, active Special Agent—as has been the case for 117 years for many compelling reasons, including operational expertise and experience, as well as the trust of our Special Agent population," reads a memo obtained by WNBC's Jonathan Dienst.
As the https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-selects-dan-bongino-as-deputy-fbi-director-10d0e8c4
notes,
The announcement sent shock waves through the FBI, whose new director Kash Patel had offered Republican senators private assurances that he would name a special agent with bureau experience to be his deputy, rather than a political outsider. Patel was sworn in at the White House on Friday.
Leaders of the FBI Agents Association, who met with Patel in January, said the new director had agreed that the deputy should be a current special agent...
Ken Dilanian echoed this sentiment, complaining on X that Bongino "has never spent a day working at the FBI, but he has spent many hours spouting baseless falsehoods about the bureau."
A few minutes before Trump made his announcement, my colleague https://twitter.com/jonathan4ny?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
obtained a memo from the FBI agents association which said in part:
“The FBI Deputy Director should continue to be an on-board, active Special Agent—as has been the case for 117 years for many compelling… https://t.co/vnc80obNYs
— Ken Dilanian (@KenDilanianNBC) https://twitter.com/KenDilanianNBC/status/1893856149276856623?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
In other words, the right people are freaking out right now.
Ken is still furious that Kash looks different than every other FBI Director.
The “traditionally” argument is a call for the elites to stay in charge. https://t.co/f7QlLDHyHq
— Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) https://twitter.com/RichardGrenell/status/1893875531080151123?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Bongino is part of the Russiagate corner—he knows this stuff from our side of the fence. No classified briefings, no peeking under redactions—just the hard grind of piecing it all together. Now he’s a co-keeper of the holy grail and we’re about to see it all. It’s all coming out.
— Hans Mahncke (@HansMahncke) https://twitter.com/HansMahncke/status/1893848940379775045?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Oh man they are so f’d https://t.co/QXKqQL7QZQ
— David Steinberg (@realDSteinberg) https://twitter.com/realDSteinberg/status/1893867036016550126?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
* * *
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that look great on any wall. Shipping included in the price to the lower 48.
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Sun, 02/23/2025 - 23:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fbi-freak-out-dan-bongino-named-deputy-director
FBI, DoD, State Dept. Push Back On Musk's Monday Deadline For 'Accomplishments' Email
FBI, DoD, State Dept. Push Back On Musk's Monday Deadline For 'Accomplishments' Email
Update (1647ET): Following Elon Musk's Saturday tweet instructing federal workers to list at least five accomplishments over the past week by Monday at midnight, or face termination - which was followed up by an actual email from the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), several agencies issued statements telling their employees to pump the brakes.
?itok=Tt6qSgFy
So far the Pentagon, FBI, State Department, and various parts of the Intelligence Community have told their employees to hold off.
"When and if required, the Department will coordinate responses to the email you have received from OPM. For now, please pause any response to the OPM email titled ‘What did you do last week," said DoD Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness Darin Selnick in a statement.
That followed a similar statement by FBI Director Kash Patel, who told the bureau that they would conduct their own employee reviews that align with the agency's procedures.
The State Department told its employees; "The State Department will respond on behalf of the Department. No employee is obligated to report their activities outside of their Department chain of command."
Top leadership at the State Department has instructed its employees to ignore https://twitter.com/elonmusk?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— Yamiche Alcindor (@Yamiche) https://twitter.com/Yamiche/status/1893517922586239358?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
While National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard told employees of agencies she oversees in the Intelligence Community (IC): "Given the inherently sensitive and classified nature of our work, I.C. employees should not respond to the OPM email," according to The Hill.
Meanwhile, Everett Kelley, the national president of the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE), wrote a letter to Musk and OPM acting director Charles Ezell, directing its 800,000 members to defy the demand.
"Federal employees report to their respective agencies through their established chains of command; they do not report to OPM," said Kelly, adding that the demand was "irresponsible" and a "sophomoric attempt" to cause confusion and intimidate federal workers.
"I am also requesting that OPM rescind the email and apologize to all federal employees," he said.
Musk has defended the 'accomplishments' email, saying that it was designed to weed out "non-existent people or the identities of dead people" who are collecting government checks. He also agreed with commentator and author Mike Cernovich that this also helps to identify high-performing employees.
I have a a few friends who are government employees wrapped up in the DOGE "chaos." And unlike what is being reported in the media, they are ecstatic...
Deep down, most (good) people want to feel like their job has meaning and purpose.
They've been spinning their wheels in…
— John LeFevre (@JohnLeFevre) https://twitter.com/JohnLeFevre/status/1893772824394772592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
I have a a few friends who are government employees wrapped up in the DOGE "chaos." And unlike what is being reported in the media, they are ecstatic...
Deep down, most (good) people want to feel like their job has meaning and purpose.
They've been spinning their wheels in…
— John LeFevre (@JohnLeFevre) https://twitter.com/JohnLeFevre/status/1893772824394772592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
* * *
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which comes with belt pouch. On sale until Monday!
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* * *
Update (1118ET): After panic swept through Washington over Elon Musk's email requiring all federal employees to send an email by Monday at midnight with five bullet points explaining what they got done last week, Musk explained the reasoning behind the last minute demand: "immense fraud."
?itok=bYacV14N
"The reason this matters is that a significant number of people who are supposed to be working for the government are doing so little work that they are not checking their email at all!" Musk wrote on X. "In some cases, we believe non-existent people or the identities of dead people are being used to collect paychecks. In other words, there is outright fraud."
The reason this matters is that a significant number of people who are supposed to be working for the government are doing so little work that they are not checking their email at all!
In some cases, we believe non-existent people or the identities of dead people are being used… https://t.co/Rj5Xe6vYZB
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1893657900851278115?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Musk then said that the email is "a very basic pulse check," adding in a subsequent https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1893671034953289921
"They are covering immense fraud."
This email is a very basic pulse check https://t.co/4qEKErwSuE
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1893658516021244113?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
* * *
Update (2356ET): Panic has predictably ensued over Elon Musk's requirement that all federal employees provide a five bullet point summary of what they accomplished last week, due by midnight on Monday (full details below).
While newly minted FBI Director Kash Patel exempted agency employees from the requirement (with much of the intelligence community reportedly set to get the same pass), there's a lot of upset feds out there.
A DHS employee emails, re Elon's latest: "Not answering that email, due with baby in three days and already having to use sick leave because of the stress... I hope they fire me at this point can't wait to sue them"
— Sam Stein (@samstein) https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1893479133646061617?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Senator Tina Smith (D-MN) lashed out, posting to X, "This is the ultimate dick boss move from Musk - except he isn’t even the boss, he’s just a dick." (she said on the heels of a coordinated campaign to brand him 'Co-President Musk')
To which Musk replied, "What did you accomplish this week?"
What did you get done last week?
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1893507417276559441?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Indeed, this takes less than 5 mins https://t.co/N9F53zxfbz
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1893519081971589141?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The Rapid Response team, which posts daily information about the Trump agenda, was happy to oblige.
An incredible week! https://t.co/D3AlfUfdeQ
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1893520730643669013?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Stay tuned for more...
* * *
Update (2308ET): New FBI Director Kash Patel sent an email to all agency employees on Saturday night instructing them to "pause any responses" to Elon Musk's request that all federal employees provide summaries of their accomplishments over the past week or face termination.
%282%29_1.jpg?itok=qd5PizX8
"The FBI, through the Office of the Director, is in charge of all of our review processes, and will conduct reviews in accordance with FBI procedures," reads the note from Patel. "When and if further information is required, we will coordinate the responses. For now, please pause any responses."
The power struggles begin.
FBI Director Kash Patel tonight has instructed his employees to ignore https://twitter.com/elonmusk?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— Ken Dilanian (@KenDilanianNBC) https://twitter.com/KenDilanianNBC/status/1893479494079410229?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Meanwhile, at least one federal employee apparently don't have time to answer the email - but did have time to complain to a MSM reporter about having to do it.
First off, if this federal employee had time to email a left-wing reporter, surely she had time to email her manager about what she accomplished last week. Also, she took sick leave last week so she can just say that she took the week off from work. Why is this all so dramatic? https://t.co/A2AjlWf2H3
— Mollie (@MZHemingway) https://twitter.com/MZHemingway/status/1893492461420359836?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
* * *
Elon Musk is 'running the Twitter playbook on the government,' after writing in a Saturday post on X that all federal employees will be receiving an email "shortly" requesting to "understand what they got done last week."
Those who fail to reply "will be taken as a resignation."
Consistent with President https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
’s instructions, all federal employees will shortly receive an email requesting to understand what they got done last week.
Failure to respond will be taken as a resignation.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1893386883444437415?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
And there it is (though no mention of the implied resignations for failure to respond):
New: America's diplomats serving around the world have now received Elon Musk's email asking them to explain their work, per a diplomatic source. Here it is, subject line: "What did you do last week?" https://t.co/4bOxUGpSF7
— John Hudson (@John_Hudson) https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1893421394991440123?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
When X user 'The Rabbit Hole' commented that Musk is "running the Twitter playbook on the government," Musk replied: "It works."
It works https://t.co/TFkpHlJa7a
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1893393730670829895?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The post came hours after President Donald Trump encouraged Musk to "get more aggressive" with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), adding "REMEMBER, WE HAVE A COUNTRY TO SAVE."
So awesome https://t.co/t2yAXh8qFZ
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1893434301846278440?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Musk's email comes after roughly 77,000 federal employees accepted DOGE's "Fork in the Road" email offering roughly 8 months of pay in exchange for resigning. After that, DOGE moved to fire thousands of employees across various agencies - mostly those in a probationary period who have been in their jobs for less than one year.
It also comes after the Trump administration scored a legal victory when a judge allowed Musk and crew to continue accessing federal data and arranging for mass layoffs.
Last week, Trump signed an executive order directing agencies to work with DOGE to make "preparations to initiate large-scale reductions in force."
* * *
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 02/23/2025 - 22:57
This Next Market Crash Will Break Our Fragile Brains
This Next Market Crash Will Break Our Fragile Brains
Submitted by https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/this-next-market-crash-will-break
I always find it funny when I think about critics of people viewing the economy from an Austrian lens. The old joke is that “newsletter writers” like myself could never cut it managing a portfolio and, to make a living, need to scare people into reading and subscribing—not only to my view on the economy, but to my newsletter.
But at least for now the stocks I’m watching for 2025 are https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/trading-the-shit-show-february-2025
(currently about +10.4% vs. the S&P +1.9% as of this weekend, on an equal weighted basis) and, as I’ve explained on countless podcasts, I write an Austrian-centric newsletter because it is derived from the basis of my core beliefs about the economy and the world of finance, as best as I can understand it.
In other words, I’m an Austrian school thinker first, and a “fear monger” second.
Take, for another example, my friend Peter Schiff. I know Peter well and believe him to be a person who is ethically beyond reproach and someone who comes by his steadfast views on free market capitalism honestly. He is constantly criticized as someone who is disingenuous in his economic beliefs because he happens to run a gold company. But I know the truth: he runs a gold company because it is based on his beliefs to begin with, not the other way around.
🔥 50% OFF FOR LIFE: Using this coupon entitles you to 50% off an annual subscription to Fringe Finance for life: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/subscribe?coupon=d8097c43
And let’s be realists for a second. Our “pessimistic” beliefs on markets and the economy—simply referred to by people like me as “reality”—are vastly outnumbered by the majority of perma-bull financial market participants: retail investors, institutional investors, sell-side analysts, corporate executives, financial media personalities, the government, central bankers, and almost every single other person that has some place in the global financial economy. Not unlike us “newsletter writers” that supposedly need to shill our beliefs to make a living, the majority of other people in the financial universe also need to shill their shit and their beliefs to hold up in order to make a living.
While us Austrians haven’t upended modern monetary theory just yet, every time the Fed can’t predict what inflation is going to do, and every time https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/just-close-whole-thing-cnbc-anchors-melt-down-beg-market-closures-twitter
from being too optimistic with its capital, credibility erodes slightly from the mainstream financial bedrock and osmoses itself over to our little dark, tinfoil-hat-wearing corner of the financial world.
And I’ll be the first to admit: the “establishment” view on the global economy has continued to dominate—not just the nominal stock market scoreboard but also the prevailing state of mind of all participants contained therein over the last few decades. When you're a sports bettor that constantly lays the chalk on the favorite, and the favorite has come in the last 99 times out of your last 99 bets, why wouldn’t you take the favorite one more time on the 100th bet?
So once again, after this past Friday’s market selloff, strategists like a concerned-looking Tom Lee do what they do best: return to financial airwaves in order to proclaim that everything is fine, this time definitely isn’t different, and investors should consistently be buying the top of the market regardless of macroeconomic conditions, valuations, or a guarantee of certain death via asteroid the very next day.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.
It’s difficult to ignore that Tom Lee has “nailed it” on markets over the last decade, and I need to give credit where it’s due. Holding your nose and buying stocks without giving a single solitary fuck about valuations or the macroeconomy has sadly been the most effective way to generate returns over the last decade or two. But as every piece of financial literature you’ve ever read says somewhere on it: past performance is not indicative of future results.
And people that don’t make daily appearances on CNBC — like, oh, say, Warren Buffett, for instance — are taking another road: getting into cash.
Maybe it’s a just a coincidence?
Though the tune of buying the dip has hardly changed, the environment it’s being sung in has. Stocks now trade at a Shiller PE that’s approaching 40x, a level only eclipsed once in history during the 2000s dot-com bubble.
But if the market’s price-to-earnings ratio and the macroeconomy didn’t matter when stocks were trading at 30x earnings, why should they matter with stocks trading at 40x earnings?
This indifference to valuations—helped along by the “passive bid” of 401(k)s and ETFs consistently buying the market at any given price (well explained by Bill Fleckenstein https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7b1eoT0bqz4
during his appearance last week), combined with what is widely perceived to be an unlimited Fed put, combined with the unprecedented amount of liquidity doled out as a result of COVID, combined with the stock market becoming accessible to literally any human being on earth that wants to take their shot thanks to the advent of retail trading apps—has distorted expectations and psychology not just about the stock market, but also about the basic fundamentals of economics and finance, in a way that many of us probably would not have even thought fathomable 50 years ago.
Modern monetary theory has acted like a risk-hunger marijuana edible that all traders and investors have been forced to swallow, resulting in an insatiable, decades long case of the market munchies.
In fact, liquidity has been so ubiquitous and markets have been so rigged that people are speculating upwards of $3 trillion in an asset class — crypto — that, to the best of my understanding, offers very little product or service and exists almost entirely digitally.
If you want to try to make the argument that overvalued equities can sometimes be hard to recognize, especially when they only seem to continue to go up and valuations only seem to continue to expand, that’s one thing. But how, with a straight face, can anyone argue that $3 trillion worth of crypto is in some way “undervalued,” let alone serves a purpose at all?
Here’s https://coinmarketcap.com/
by market cap.
Let’s put Bitcoin aside for a second and assume there’s a value to the protocol in the network. What are the other 18 of these doing? Dogecoin? Sui? Hedera? The rest of the top 50 gets even better. Uniswap? Polkadot? Ondo? Kaspa? VeChain?
I feel like the guys in Major League reading the roster before opening day.
“Ricky Vaughn, Willie Hays? I’ve never heard of most of em. Mitchell Friedman?”
What are all these…things…doing? As best as I can tell, pretty much nothing—other than https://cointelegraph.com/news/bybit-exchange-hacked
for those who custody them, like Ethereum was this past week.
I’m fairly confident that almost all of the crypto market outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum is nothing more than pure excess.
And, of course, the same type of useless excess exists in equity markets, as well, in the form of thousands of companies burning cash and surviving while paying their executives solely from stock sales. But at least these completely useless, bullshit equities give us the courtesy of inventing some idiotic story about their product or service and what it will do to help humanity. Joke memecoins like Dogecoin and Fartcoin, don’t even do that. They are the literal definition of pure, useless speculation, with their respective labels laughing back directly in the face of the investors who buy them. The https://www.nbcnews.com/business/personal-finance/memecoins-what-are-they-why-are-they-popular-cryptocurrency-rcna184223
about Fartcoin is: “Yes, it’s called Fartcoin. Yes, it is totally useless.”
If the saying “hubris comes before the fall” turns out to be even 1% accurate, we are likely in for an unexpected comeuppance for the ages. Other than lighting giant sacks of $100 bills on fire on live television just to make a statement about how little you care about return on investment, it doesn’t get more hubris-laden than buying something like the Hawk Tuah girl’s crypto coin.
Global corporate bonds or this. You decide.
And we see the same bullshit with equities too.
Last week, when there was a momentary headline about the Pentagon possibly cutting spending, Palantir—a stock known loosely to be tied to defense spending—took a momentary breather from its 18 month long parabolic rise, which has seen its stock go up nearly 10x, to correct 5% in one session. Any investor even remotely interested in fundamentals would have told you going into that week that at roughly 550x trailing earnings and 95x sales, the stock was already trading in extraordinarily aggressive territory.
Even after the 5% move lower, the stock still closed the session at about 530x trailing 12-month earnings and 86x trailing 12-month sales. In other words, the stock took in a minuscule hiccup of reality after doing nothing but tearing ass higher for two years.
One may think to themselves: “Any analyst with half a brain or investor with the slightest bit of financial acumen probably could have or should have seen a pullback in the company’s valuation coming.”
But no. Instead of accepting a subatomic level of reality and warming to the notion that the stock probably shouldn’t be trading anywhere near where it is today to begin with, Jim Cramer took to Twitter to watch every tick and cheer for the company—using a very matter-of-fact tone that came across to me as though he was saying bulls should be able to see the stock double again and again and again, ad infinitum, despite any lack of reason for doing so. Behold, this “analysis”:
And then, commenting on the overall market, Cramer took what appeared to be the same tone, indicating to me he thinks bulls should always be vindicated, bears should always be eating large quantities of shit, and the market should go up every single day, all day, regardless of whether or not it has any reason to.
“Not enough time to rally,” he lamented at the end of the day, succumbing to the horrifying reality that we’re going to have one of those rare ‘red’ days in the market that feel like they come once every academic semester at this point.
“This marks the end. All life as we know it ends at 4PM with the closing bell,” Cramer may have thought to himself before hitting “Tweet”.
Behold the horror of the great crash of February 2025:
Oh, the humanity. Won’t someone think of the children?
I know Jim Cramer has a job to do, and I respect that. I like him just like I like Tom Lee. It isn’t personal. I know his job is to side with retail investors and try to show market neophytes that there is “a bull market somewhere.” I actually agree with the sentiment—there can always be a bull market somewhere—but that doesn’t mean that stocks always have to go up.
When you take these types of disturbing assumptions and you download them onto Cramer’s millions of Twitter followers and television viewers—then you couple that with a Federal Reserve whose unwritten third mandate has proven to be never letting stocks go down, ever, for any reason—is it any wonder that the entire retail investing public has subscribed to the notion of closing their eyes, holding their breath, and buying the dip in any situation, including the end of the world?
This hubris and outright delusion exists as the sharpest tip of an exceptionally long spear of irrational market exuberance, arrogance, crowd-herd mentality, and greed, mixed with financial unsophistication.
The entire economy existing within the confines of a Modern Monetary Theory system that is set up to rig asset prices higher is one thing. To be fair, it would be foolish not to expect the market to have irrational and overly optimistic expectations.
But the fever pitch of where expectations are now, combined with what I believe is a mathematical certainty that markets will eventually have to move lower in dramatic fashion, means that the next crash might just very well break the brains of a good portion of the investing public.
From here, a sharp and decisive move lower in markets probably first comes as the result of an economy grinding slower, and then, in dramatic fashion, the quick cascade of deleveraging and speculation unwinding will torture people financially. But psychologically is where it is really going to torture a whole new generation of investors who have yet to feel any significant prolonged financial pain. Think about it: the COVID crash was over in a couple of weeks.
This means that there is an entire market full of investors who have not felt any type of prolonged recession or drawdown in markets. And they have definitely not felt a depression or the psychological uncertainty of what can happen if the market loses confidence in the currency or the creditworthiness of the United States.
The Fed put is always going to be there, and nominal prices are probably always going go up. But at some point, just like a lot of the populace has learned about money printing over the last 10 years thanks to Bitcoin, people are also going to learn about the differences between nominal prices and real prices. They will compare the price of assets to inflation. They won’t be fooled by prices rising faster than the value of their assets. In fact, they will know exactly what it means: that the system, as the Fed wants it to exist today, doesn’t work, widens the inequality gap, and disproportionately negatively affects the middle and lower classes.
We bailed out a tech bubble in the early 2000s, and the result of our bailout came back as a housing crisis. We bailed out housing in 2008, and the result of that, if you ask me, is going to either be a currency or sovereign debt crisis.
Total assets of the Federal Reserve. Guess what comes next.
There will come a point one day where, psychologically, the Fed intervenes and stock prices may go up again, but the average investor is living out depressionary hardships. And I mean this for people who are lucky enough to even own financial assets. Many lower- and middle-class families don’t even have significant amounts of financial assets but, rather, have negative net worth. The wreckage to these classes will be unlike anything we’ve ever seen before.
Make no mistake about it—we appear to be stuck between a rock and a hard place where the only exit door seems to be stagflation. This is something we haven’t combated since the 1970s, and the monetary policy and fiscal layout of the country right now is so distorted that people from the 1970s wouldn’t even recognize it.
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The Fed has no option to raise rates into a stagflationary environment because of the ungodly amount of debt we have outstanding. Even with rates where they are now, I believe the Fed is out over its skis and has already sealed the fate of guaranteed defeat for the economy and markets.
So what happens then? We’re stuck between welcoming a deflationary depression by raising rates to try to combat inflation, or we’re going to have to let inflation run wild. We’ve never been in this situation before in modern history. And even more frightening than that is the fact that market participants and the average American citizen are the most coddled and the least equipped to handle bad news related to the economy than they’ve ever been.
I write this article today not to stir up fear but to do what I did leading up to the country panicking about COVID: to try and get some mental exercise in so that if the shit truly hits the fan, psychologically, it won’t be a total blindside surprise to everyone, including myself.
See you Monday morning.
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with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 02/23/2025 - 14:00
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/next-market-crash-will-break-our-fragile-brains
Zelensky Says 'Ready' To Resign For The Sake Of Peace, NATO Membership
Zelensky Says 'Ready' To Resign For The Sake Of Peace, NATO Membership
Speaking at the "Ukraine: The Year 2025" forum on Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told an audience of all heads of ministries, agencies, and top officials that he's ready to resign as president if it brings peace. He suggested the country be guaranteed NATO membership in exchange for his stepping down.
"I am ready to leave my post if it brings peace. Or exchange it for NATO," Zelensky https://www.kyivpost.com/post/47670
in response to journalists' questions, and at a moment he's feeling immense pressure from US President Donald Trump. Ukraine regional media Kyiv Post was among the first to report the resignation comments.
?itok=Qn_2Jjzf
The same statement was also translated in Russian state media https://www.rt.com/russia/613186-zelensky-resign-ukraine-nato/
: "If peace for Ukraine, if you really need me to leave my post, then I’m ready. I can exchange this for NATO, if there are such conditions. I am focusing on the security of Ukraine today, not in 20 years, and I do not intend to be in power for decades," Zelensky said. He still asserted that martial law has to be lifted before their can be national elections, according to Ukraine's constitution.
This comes after a week of an open spat with the White House, wherein Trump called Zelensky a 'dictator' for refusing to hold democratic elections and for criticizing US efforts at achieving peace with Moscow. Kiev complains it's been cut out of US-Russia engagement, while Trump has pointed out the Ukrainians and Europeans had three years in which they rebuffed peace openings at every turn.
Zelensky briefly addressed this tit-for-tat at the forum, saying he is not offended by Trump calling him a dictator as he's not a dictator, according to the remarks.
Zelensky tries to brush off Trump calling him a 'dictator': "Only a dictator would be offended by the word dictator."
Zelensky tries to brush off Trump calling him a 'dictator'
'Only a dictator would be offended by the word dictator'
He assures crowd he has no intention of staying in office forever... https://t.co/znreGJKn4f
— RT (@RT_com) https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1893692641755230221?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
According to Ukraine media sources, Zelensky on Sunday "also announced an important international summit on the Russo-Ukrainian war scheduled for Monday, Feb 24. Leaders from 13 partner countries will attend in person, while 24 others will join online. Zelensky hinted that major decisions could come from the meeting."
"Tomorrow’s summit is crucial. It might even be a turning point – we’ll see," he said. Zelensky in the comments affirmed that previously approved military aid continued to flow, but that Ukraine still needs 20 Patriot air defense systems.
He explained his government needs to sign agreement that will be 'win-win' for both US and Ukraine, 'pleasant' for both parties. But so far the haggling over mineral rights has been anything but pleasant.
❗️Zelensky READY TO STEP DOWN for peace in Ukraine
Says he'd do it in exchange for NATO membership https://t.co/Afs1pmjoBM
— RT (@RT_com) https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1893676754406953085?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha addressed the same forum and said the following, "We are convinced that in this third year of brutal Russian aggression, we truly have a chance. We are telling many partners that perhaps now is the time to fasten diplomatic seat belts. We must not give in to emotions."
There have been weekend reports that the two sides are close to achieving a mineral deal. However, the US side has stuck by some demands that Zelensky and his officials previously rejected as not doable.
"Ukraine on Saturday was seriously considering a revised American proposal for its vast natural resources that contains virtually the same provisions that Kyiv previously rejected as too onerous, according to Ukrainian officials and a draft of the deal," https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/22/world/europe/ukraine-trump-minerals.html
reports.
Let me break it down to you. The U.S. deal for Ukraine, a strategic ally
1. Ukraine pays 50% of its oil, gas, and mineral revenues to the US (fund)
2. until the fund reaches 500 billion
3. The U.S. 100% owns the fund
The remaining 2 conditions are the best 1/ https://t.co/CaNvBBcISG
— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1893374217397178833?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
"In fact, some of the terms appear even tougher than in a previous draft," the report emphasizes. "The latest proposal comes after a week in which President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine resisted signing the earlier version in a public dispute with President Trump."
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 02/23/2025 - 13:25
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zelensky-says-ready-resign-sake-peace-nato-membership