One In Five Gen-Z/Millennial Women Identify As LGBTQ+
One In Five Gen-Z/Millennial Women Identify As LGBTQ+
Parsing through a Goldman note on the online dating sector, particularly focusing on Match Group (MTCH), Bumble (BMBL), and Grindr (GRND), the industry remains on a healthy upward growth trajectory. However, mature online dating markets are slowing, while emerging regions (Asia ex-China) drive new user adoption. While Hinge outperforms Tinder, Bumble is restructuring its growth strategy, and Grindr continues penetrating the LGBTQ+ community.
Goldman analysts Eric Sheridan and Julia Fein-Ashley provided clients with the key takeaways of what's currently happening across the online dating industry:
We continue to forecast the directly addressable online dating user TAM to grow at a 4% CAGR from 2024-2029;
Expect Asia ex-China to contribute to a large portion of new dating users and slower growth from more mature markets (i.e. UCAN [United States and Canada]/Europe growing at a 1% CAGR from 2024-2029); &
Forecast Hinge to increase penetration in the addressable user market, driven partially by continued focus on the international opportunity (and scaling in new international regions/markets).
Sheridan leveraged third-party data and industry sources that found the latest trends:
Industry: UCAN user preferences continue to shift towards intentional dating and community/friendship oriented apps (a theme of industry narrowing at the application layer);
GRND: the LGBTQ+ userbase size at Tinder/Hinge remains less scaled than Grindr &
BMBL: commentary around Bumble's decision to discontinue/sunset the Fruitz app.
Instead of analyzing the entire note, we highlight two interesting trends.
The first is Bumble for Friends. This app helps users build platonic relationships rather than romantic connections and has seen rapid growth over the last 18 months.
More from the analysts:
Bumble for Friends (BFF) has continued to scale over the past 18 months, both in MAUs (now in double digits as a % of Bumble App MAUs in UCAN) and engagement (Exhibit 10). We view this as an area of increasing focus at Bumble, with mgmt. noting their increased focus on the friendship/community opportunity and shift in focus away from other apps (i.e. discontinuing Fruitz and Official apps
While BFF tends to have less of an impact on the number of total paying users, we view the app as providing a low-pressure alternative to dating apps and an additional acquisition channel specifically targeting younger (Gen Z) users.
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The second is this...
"This, paired with LGBTQ+ identification being more common among American women (Exhibit 12) highlights that addressable user penetration rates at Grindr are likely higher than Tinder/Hinge (even when factoring in differences among addressable LGBTQ+ population)," the analysts noted.
1 in 5 Gen Z & millennial women!
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It's not a surprise after 15 years of woke propaganda jammed down the throats of all generations.
When you peel back the rainbow shell of the woke and well-funded Pride Month conglomerate, you find something deeply insidious. Their profits come at a steep cost: the well-being of vulnerable children.
These corporations aren't allies, they're opportunists. They've discovered… https://t.co/Lnl3Y2Euot
— Gays Against Groomers (@againstgrmrs) https://twitter.com/againstgrmrs/status/1807085427301498907?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
To sum up, younger generations increasingly rely on friendship apps rather than engaging in real-world exchanges at bars, restaurants, churches, and other public areas, making eye contact, and simply saying "hello"—a tradition that has existed for thousands of years. Additionally, 15 years of woke has led to 1 in 5 women identifying as LGBTQ+ (maybe we're missing a few letters and numbers).
* * *
'Flash' Sale! We're super gay for these https://store.zerohedge.com/complete-2-day-emergency-survival-backpack/
at ZH Store! Grab a sack, or two!
https://store.zerohedge.com/complete-2-day-emergency-survival-backpack/
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 03/17/2025 - 14:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/gen-z-loves-friendship-apps-lgbtq-identity-surges-among-women
Far-Left French MEP Demands Return Of Statue Of Liberty As US No Longer Stands For Its Values
Far-Left French MEP Demands Return Of Statue Of Liberty As US No Longer Stands For Its Values
A far-left French MEP has called on the United States to return the Statue of Liberty, claiming the nation clearly doesn’t appreciate the monument or what it stands for.
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French MEP Raphaël Glucksmann made the provocative remark on Sunday while addressing approximately 1,500 activists at his Place Publique party congress.
Glucksmann criticized certain American political decisions, claiming that the U.S. had forsaken the values of liberty that the statue represents.
“Give us back the Statue of Liberty,” Glucksmann declared, targeting “Americans who have chosen to switch to the side of tyrants.”
He particularly condemned U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration for what he claimed was the dismissal of researchers in their pursuit of scientific freedom, suggesting that if the U.S. no longer values liberty, the statue would be more fitting in France.
“You have been given it as a gift, but apparently you despise it. So she will be very comfortable here at home,” Glucksmann said of the famous landmark.
His remarks were met with cheers from his supporters.
The Statue of Liberty, designed by French sculptor Auguste Bartholdi with engineering contributions from Gustave Eiffel, was gifted by the French people to the United States to commemorate their alliance during the American Revolutionary War. Unveiled on Oct. 28, 1886, the statue has since stood as a symbol of American democracy and freedom on Liberty Island in New York Harbor.
A vocal supporter of Ukraine, Glucksmann also criticized Trump’s disengagement from the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. He expressed concerns over the global rise of far-right movements, which he linked to Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and French right-wing leader Marine Le Pen. In response, he called for “democratic resistance” to counter what he termed the “Trump and Musk fan club” in France.
Glucksmann further extended an invitation to American researchers who feel restricted by their country’s policies, stating:
“If you want to fire your best researchers, if you want to dismiss those who, through their freedom, innovation, and sense of inquiry, have made your country the world’s leading power, then we will welcome them.”
His party has distributed a flyer urging the creation of a political force to uphold the French values of “Liberty, Equality, Fraternity” by launching “training programs” to counter right-wing ideologies.
* * *
White House Spokesperson Caroline Leavitt made her feelings clear... "It’s only because of the United States of America that the French are not speaking German right now. They should be very grateful..."
White House Press Secretary Leavitt:
It’s only because of the United States of America that the French are not speaking German right now.
They should be very grateful. https://t.co/w0tcpQ2XEz
— Clash Report (@clashreport) https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1901687852028551259?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 03/17/2025 - 14:00
Retail Sales Disappoint In February, Despite Major Downward Revisions
Retail Sales Disappoint In February, Despite Major Downward Revisions
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/january-us-retail-sales-tumble-most-almost-2-years
)...
BofA retail sales preview based on real-time card spending data: not pretty https://t.co/avlFVTHDe0
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1901597809012318238?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Following last month's 0.9% MoM plunge, which was revised down a 1.2% MoM drop, February saw retail sales disappoint (rising just 0.2% MoM vs +0.6% MoM exp)...
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Source: Bloomberg
Food Services & Gas Stations saw the biggest drop in nominal sales...
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Core retail sales met expectations (+0.3% MoM) but also saw downward revisions...
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Source: Bloomberg
On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, retail sales are actually down YoY...
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Source: Bloomberg
Adjusted roughly for inflation,. real retail sales is basically flat year-over-year...
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Source: Bloomberg
Finally, on the bright side, Retail Sales Control Group - which is used for GDP calculations - surged 1.0% MoM in February (more than double the 0.4% rise expected), after puking a revised lower 1.0% MoM in January...
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Source: Bloomberg
So,while headline sentiment may be weak, this is a solid report for signaling economic growth.
Trump learning from Biden: January revised much lower, means lower base and can beat estimates
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1901613563443114004?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 03/17/2025 - 08:38
Trump Declares Biden's Autopen-Signed Pardons "Void"
Trump Declares Biden's Autopen-Signed Pardons "Void"
Ten days or so after the Heritage Foundation's Oversight Project disclosed that nearly every document bearing former President Biden's signature during his first term had been signed by an autopen—https://www.zerohedge.com/political/could-bombshell-discovery-render-all-bidens-presidential-actions-null-and-void
—questions arose over whether executive orders and pardons could be deemed invalid, as we noted that Biden's staff likely leveraged his rapid cognitive deterioration to sign those documents via autopen.
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Overnight, President Trump declared that the 11th-hour pardons, including those given to members of Congress who investigated the January 6 insurrection, were "void, vacant, and of no further force or effect, because of the fact that they were done by autopen." Some of those last-minute pardons include Deep Staters, such as former Representative Liz Cheney, retired General Mark Milley, and government scientist Anthony Fauci.
"The "Pardons" that Sleepy Joe Biden gave to the Unselect Committee of Political Thugs, and many others, are hereby declared VOID, VACANT, AND OF NO FURTHER FORCE OR EFFECT, because of the fact that they were done by Autopen," https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114175908922736427
late Sunday night.
The president continued: "In other words, Joe Biden did not sign them but, more importantly, he did not know anything about them! The necessary Pardoning Documents were not explained to, or approved by, Biden. He knew nothing about them, and the people that did may have committed a crime."
He went on to say that members of that House committee are "subject to investigation at the highest level"...
"Therefore, those on the Unselect Committee, who destroyed and deleted ALL evidence obtained during their two year Witch Hunt of me, and many other innocent people, should fully understand that they are subject to investigation at the highest level. The fact is, they were probably responsible for the Documents that were signed on their behalf without the knowledge or consent of the Worst President in the History of our Country, Crooked Joe Biden!"
Here's the full statement:
?itok=gA4j04ML
Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One late last night: "It's not my decision — that'll be up to a court — but I would say that they're null and void, because I'm sure Biden didn't have any idea that it was taking place, and somebody was using an auto pen to sign off and to give pardons."
🚨 REPORTER: “Are those [autopen] pardons from the former President now null and void?”
TRUMP: “I would say that they're null and void because I'm sure Biden didn't have any idea that it was taking place … What they did is criminal.” https://t.co/R9OD7kAtJb
— Chief Nerd (@TheChiefNerd) https://twitter.com/TheChiefNerd/status/1901530391598555271?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
. . .
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 03/17/2025 - 08:30
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-declares-bidens-autopen-signed-pardons-void
Futures Fall After Bessent Says "Not Worried" By Slide In US Stocks
Futures Fall After Bessent Says "Not Worried" By Slide In US Stocks
Futures are lower to start the week - but well off the lowest levels of the session - following the best day for US stocks since November, as the market digests trade war news and the Trump Put remains absent. Over the weekend, https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bessent-says-market-corrections-are-healthy-offers-no-guarantees-there-wont-be-recession
recent stock declines as healthy, reinforcing the view that President Donald Trump’s administration is unlikely to step in to boost markets (the Fed is a different matter). Trump also reminded investors over the weekend that he would be imposing both broad reciprocal tariffs and additional sector-specific tariffs on April 2. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down -0.2% having been down as much as 0.6% earlier; Nasdaq futures are down 0.1% as Mag 7 stocks edged lower, though Nvidia gained before its much anticipated conference on artificial intelligence. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 0.4%, extending its year-to-date outperformance against US stocks. In global news, Trump will speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday about ending the war in Ukraine. So far the Ukraine ceasefire news is having a muted impact. Trump also said reciprocal tariffs and additional sector-specific tariffs will hit on April 2. Meanwhile, the US retail operator of Forever 21 filed for bankruptcy after years of poor performance. Bond yields are lower as the curve bull flattens while the USD falls to fresh 4 month lows. Commodities are bid higher led by Ags and Energy, following the latest stimulus vows from China. Today’s macro data focus is on Retail Sales where a stronger number may give the market comfort in trying to create a relief rally and the Fed on Weds could be supportive too.
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In premarket trading, Tesla leads losses among Mag 7 stocks (Alphabet -0.1%, Amazon +0.3%, Apple -0.2, Microsoft -0.4%, Meta +0.1%, Nvidia +1.4% and Tesla -0.5%), DocuSign rose 1% after William Blair upgraded the e-signature software firm to outperform, noting market opportunity for the company’s Intelligent Agreement Management platform. Incyte (INCY) sinks 14% after reporting topline results from a Phase 3 clinical trial program evaluating the safety and efficacy of povorcitinib. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Netflix (NFLX) gains 1% as MoffettNathanson turns bullish, saying the company’s ability to better monetize its engagement remains an underappreciated aspect of its scale.
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) rises 4% after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to overweight, noting that management signaled during an investor conference that there were no detectable changes in demand and that their 2025 outlook was cautious. The stock is down 25% year-to-date.
Science Applications (SAIC) climbs 10% after the government IT services contractor posted 4Q results and provided guidance.
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) climbs 1% after Deutsche Bank raised its rating to buy from hold following the stock’s recent pullback.
Bessent told NBC’s Meet the Press Sunday that he’s not worried by the slump in US stocks, after about $5 trillion was wiped from the S&P 500’s value and the index tumbled into a correction. “Corrections are healthy,” he told NBC. Traders still don’t seem convinced. His comments are a blow to those harboring hopes that President Donald Trump will seek to cushion the market impact of his policies.
“This statement caused some alarm for many Wall Street types who had been counting on Bessent to be the second Trump administration’s ‘voice of reason’ on economic policy,” said Benjamin Picton, a strategist at Rabobank. The comments effectively dash prospects that policymakers will throw “liquidity bones to financial markets whenever they showed signs of wobbling,” Picton added.
Meanwhile, fears of a protracted global trade war are benefiting haven assets, with gold holding close to record highs around $3,000 an ounce, and Treasury yields edging lower. Bund yields dropped five basis points as jitters mounted over Tuesday’s parliamentary vote on Germany’s landmark spending package.
Another source of concern is the US threat of “unrelenting” military strikes on Yemen’s Houthi militants, who said they would respond by targeting US vessels in the Red Sea. The events lifted Brent crude futures above $71 a barrel, while European shipping stocks, including AP Moller-Maersk A/S and Hapag-Lloyd AG, gained.
It's a busy week on the macro front as the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are set to hold policy meetings. While they are not expected to change interest rates, investors will watch in particular for any clues from the Fed on what kind of support could be offered to the economy. Swaps see high odds of three Fed cuts this year, but Fed chair Jerome Powell faces the task of assuring investors the economy remains on solid footing, while signaling policy support will be provided when required. US retail sales data due later Monday are expected to reinforce the picture of a slowing economy, following on from below-forecast inflation readings last week.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 0.4%, with energy and utilities shares leading gains after China said it would take steps to revive consumption, while consumer products and retail stocks are the biggest laggards. Here are the biggest movers Monday:
Phoenix Group shares rise as much as 7.8%, the most since May, after the insurance and pension fund company delivered operating profit ahead of expectations and upgraded its outlook through to 2026
ProSieben shares climb as much as 5%, the highest intraday since July. The German media company is nearing a deal to give General Atlantic up to 10% in the firm through a convertible bond
CVS Group advances as much as 13%, the most since Sept. 2021, following an upgrade of the veterinary health company to outperform by RBC based on factors including strong Australian margins
U-blox rises as much as 9.3% to the highest since July, after the Swiss semiconductor company signed an agreement to divest its Cellular business to Trasna
Forterra shares rise as much as 3.5% after the building products company was upgraded by analysts at Peel Hunt, who argue there is major earnings upside when volumes recover
QinetiQ shares drop as much as 22%, the most on record, after analysts warned of sharp cuts to consensus after the company downgraded growth expectations for this year and next
Energean slides as much as 11% after the oil and gas company warned Carlyle has not yet obtained regulatory approvals in Italy and Egypt for a deal to buy a portfolio of assets from the London-listed company
Siltronic slides as much as 4.7% as Jefferies cuts its rating on the semiconductor equipment manufacturer to hold from buy, cautioning that the outlook remains difficult
Stocks across Asia also rose, pulled higher by a rebound in technology shares and a sense of optimism over China’s plans to boost consumption. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 1.2%, with chip makers TSMC and Samsung Electronics giving it the biggest boost as they tracked a recovery in US tech shares Friday. Benchmarks in Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea all moved higher. The biggest news for traders to digest came from China, after a weekend report from the state news agency said Beijing will promote “reasonable growth” in wages and set up a mechanism to adjust the minimum salary, something it seems to do every other months. A raft of economic data also showed signs of recovery in the economy, including a pickup in retail sales. The response of mainland Chinese stocks was muted. Although a gauge of Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong rose around 0.6%, the onshore benchmark CSI 300 Index drifted lower. The market appeared underwhelmed with a Monday press conference. Elsewhere, we get the Bank of Japan’s policy decision due on Wednesday, with the central bank widely expected to keep rates steady.
“China’s latest measures reinforce that boosting consumption is a top priority this year, with a multi-pronged approach involving several ministries and a host of different measures,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets. “This could help to broaden out the momentum we have seen in China stocks this year, primarily led by tech.”
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is set for a second daily loss and is down 0.2%, hitting a fresh four-month low as investors awaited US retail sales and manufacturing data for further clues on the state of the world’s biggest economy. The Norwegian krone is the best performer among the G-10 currencies, rising 0.9% against the greenback. The pound and euro rise 0.3% each.
In rates, treasuries are slightly richer across the curve, following a wider bull-flattening rally seen across bunds which find support from short covering flow ahead of Tuesday’s vote on the spending package. 10-year Treasury yields drop 3 bps to 4.28% in a slight bull-flattening move. Gilts are steady. Bunds rally, led by longer-dated maturities before Tuesday’s vote in the Bundestag on the spending package. German 30-year yields fall 8 bps to 3.13%. Treasury auctions this week include $13 billion 20-year bonds Tuesday and $18 billion 10-year TIPS Thursday.
In commodities, Bitcoin is little changed around $83,500. Spot gold climbs $12 to near $3,000/oz having topped that level for the first time on Friday. WTI rises 1% to $67.80 a barrel.
Looking at today's calendar, US economic data calendar includes March Empire manufacturing, February retail sales (8:30am), January business inventories and March NAHB housing market index (10am). Fed officials are in external communications blackout ahead of March 19 policy announcement
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.6% to 5,607.50
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 548.55
MXAP up 0.9% to 187.43
MXAPJ up 0.9% to 586.91
Nikkei up 0.9% to 37,396.52
Topix up 1.2% to 2,748.12
Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 24,145.57
Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,426.13
Sensex up 0.4% to 74,153.00
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 7,854.06
Kospi up 1.7% to 2,610.69
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.85%
Euro little changed at $1.0880
Brent Futures up 0.6% to $70.99/bbl
Gold spot up 0.0% to $2,985.40
US Dollar Index little changed at 103.71
Top Overnight News
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he’s not worried about the recent downturn that’s wiped trillions of dollars from the equities market as the US seeks to reshape its economic policies. “I’ve been in the investment business for 35 years, and I can tell you that corrections are healthy, they are normal,” Bessent said Sunday on NBC’s Meet The Press. “I‘m not worried about the markets. Over the long term, if we put good tax policy in place, deregulation and energy security, the markets will do great.” BBG
Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin will speak tomorrow as the US presses for a deal on Ukraine. Trump said much of the discussion will be about territory. BBG
US President Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Tren De Aragua which he declared is attempting and threatening invasion against the US, while he said any Venezuelans aged 14 or older who are TDA members and not US citizens or lawful permanent residents are liable to be “apprehended, secured and removed as alien enemies”.
Voters are souring on the economy even as Trump’s second term boosted positivity about the US as a whole, an NBC News poll showed. The Democratic Party got its lowest approval in the poll’s history at 27%. BBG
US Senate voted 54-46 to pass the stopgap funding bill to keep the government funded through September 30th, while President Trump signed the budget appropriations bill into law.
Trump’s trade war w/Europe risks damaging an economic relationship worth ~$9.5T (in terms of goods/services trade and foreign direct investment). WSJ
US President Trump’s administration was reportedly considering a new travel ban that would impact 43 countries, with a draft plan developed by the State Department several weeks ago: NYT
Oracle is accelerating discussions with the White House on a deal to run TikTok’s US business. Politico
Chinese consumption, investment and industrial production beat estimates at the start of the year, pointing to signs of economic resilience. However, Beijing’s consumption-focused press conference underwhelmed. Bloomberg Economics called the plan to boost spending “skeletal.” BBG
China’s economic data for Jan/Feb comes in ahead of plan, including industrial production (+5.9% vs. the Street +5.3%) and retail sales (+4% vs. the Street +3.8%). RTRS
Plans are being made for global CEOs to meet Xi Jinping on March 28 following an upcoming forum in Beijing, people familiar said. BBG
GIR revised our 2025 and 2026 earnings to $262 and $280 respectively (previously $268 and $288), reflecting growth of 7% in both 2025 and 2026 (vs. 9% and 7% previously). Furthermore, we now expect the S&P 500 will trade at a forward P/E of 20.6 by year-end vs. 21.5 previously. Our revised 3-, 6-, and 12-month S&P 500 price targets are 5600 (-1%), 5900 (+5%), and 6500 (+15%). GIR
OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report March 2025; cuts global growth outlook - cites trade tensions
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks began the week on the front foot following last Friday's resurgence on Wall St and amid encouraging Chinese activity data but with gains capped owing to geopolitical tensions after the US conducted strikes on Yemen's Houthis and with participants awaiting this week's central bank decisions. ASX 200 gained with the advances led by notable strength in the commodity-related sectors and following encouraging data from Australia's largest trading partner. Nikkei 225 climbed at the open despite the lack of obvious catalysts, while Japan's largest labour union anticipates an average 5.46% wage increase this year which would surpass 5% for the second consecutive year and would be the highest in 34 years but is still below the union's 6.09% pay increase demand. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive with sentiment underpinned following recent support pledges and after encouraging Chinese activity data in which Industrial Production topped forecasts and Retail Sales matched estimates. However, gains in the mainland were limited as data also showed an increase in Urban Unemployment and House Prices remained in deep contraction territory.
Top Asian News
China's State Planner Vice Chair says consumption is improving, though consumer confidence remains weak.
PBoC detailed measures to improve the quality and efficiency of financial services and will grow the financial ecosystem that supports tech innovation, while state media reported that China should choose the right timing and strength for monetary easing.
China’s State Council released a special action plan to boost domestic consumption which includes measures to increase residents’ income, pensions and wages, as well as establishing a childcare subsidy scheme and increasing revenue from land reform including rural areas.
China’s NDRC said it is to encourage foreign investment in technology and manufacturing with the state planner to release an expanded list of industries it seeks to attract foreign investment in.
China's stats bureau spokesperson said China's economy remains resilient but achieving the 2025 growth target will not be easy and the external environment is becoming more complex and severe. The spokesperson added that China's property market faces some pressures, despite signs of stabilising but they expect China's consumer prices to improve further and expect Q1 economic operations to be steady. Furthermore, it was stated that macroeconomic policies will provide more support for the economy and the employment situation remains largely stable with the rise in the February jobless rate still within normal ranges.
PBoC says Official says it will use policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio and relending and discount facilities.
Dozens of foreign CEOs set to attend Beijing's CDF business summit this month; some expected to meet President Xi, according to Reuters sources.
CAICT says shipments of phones within China are down 14.3% Y/Y in January. Shipments of foreign-branded phones, such as Apple (AAPL) -20.6% Y/Y.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) opened mixed, and traded indecisively on either side of the unchanged mark; though sentiment gradually picked up as the morning progressed. European sectors hold a positive bias, but with the breadth of the market fairly narrow. Energy takes the top spot, lifted by underlying strength in oil prices; the complex is buoyed by heightened geopolitical tensions after the US struck Houthi targets. On that, the militant group said it would continue naval operations until the Gaza blockade is lifted and aid is let in. Basic Resources benefits from the risk tone, and after constructive Chinese activity data overnight, with particular focus on the stronger-than-expected Industrial Production data. US equity futures (ES -0.4%, NQ -0.4%, RTY -0.6%) are lower across the board, with slight underperformance in the RTY, giving back some of the significant strength seen on Wall Street on Friday. Intel's (INTC) new CEO plans to overhaul the chip design and manufacturing business, plans to restart AI efforts and produce chips at annual cadence as it looks at further cuts, Reuters reports.
Top European News
ECB's de Guindos says that the administration of US President Trump has increased economic uncertainty due to tariff deregulation. Trade was is bad for the global economy. Effect of tariffs on inflation may be compensated by lower economic activity. Believes inflation is converging on 2% and everything is going in the "right direction". Increased uncertainty has made the current situation more opaque compared to six months ago. Spain will need to spend 2.7% GDP on Defence in four years and raise its budget by EUR 6bln per year. Seeing a decrease in services inflation due to evolution of wages, should lead overall inflation to the 2% target.
UK Chancellor Reeves is to pledge to change the law to restrict merger investigations by the Competition and Markets Authority, according to FT.
Britain’s largest regulators will be given performance reviews by ministers and set targets for cutting red tape and growing the economy, according to The Times.
Moody’s raised Greece’s sovereign rating from Ba1 to Baa3; Outlook revised to Stable from Positive and affirmed Spain at A; Outlook Stable. It was also reported that Fitch affirmed France at AA-; Outlook Negative, affirmed Portugal at A-; Outlook Positive, and affirmed Poland at A-; Outlook Stable.
German Economy Ministry says economic weakness continues at the start of 2025 amid subdued domestic/foreign demand and increased uncertainty.
German Ifo institute has lowered their economic forecasts to 0.2% for 2025 and 0.8% in 2026.
FX
USD net softer vs. peers in what has been a weekend lacking in incremental newsflow on the trade front aside from Trump reiterating that he has no intention of creating exemptions on steel and aluminum tariffs, adding that he will impose reciprocal and sectoral tariffs on April 2nd. Focus is also on the US government averting a shutdown. DXY is currently tucked within Friday's 103.57-104.09 range, ahead of US Retail Sales.
EUR is steady vs. the USD and tucked within Friday's 1.0830-1.0912 range. Incremental macro drivers over the weekend for the EZ are lacking and therefore markets are bracing for the outcome of tomorrow's vote in the Bundestag on the German reform package. ECB's de Guindos remarked that he believes inflation is converging on 2% and everything is going in the "right direction". However, this provided little traction for the EUR.
GBP is a little firmer and trades within a 1.2926-58 range, in what has been a catalyst-thin session thus far, but has focus remains on Thursday's BoE meeting.
JPY is a little lower and the marginal G10 underperformer today, partly thanks to slightly positive risk tone following constructive Chinese data which has lifted Antipodeans and European stocks. USD/JPY currently towards the mid-point of a 148.47-149.09 range.
Antipodeans continue to extend on the upside on Friday, with gains today facilitated by the constructive Chinese activity data and after China unveiled a special action plan to boost consumption.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1688 vs exp. 7.2199 (Prev. 7.1738)
Fixed Income
EGBs bid with OATs outperforming after Fitch left France's rating alone on Friday. More broadly, benchmarks bid with yields weighed on by pressure in European gas benchmarks ahead of the Putin-Trump call. Action which has lifted OATs by over 70 ticks at best with Bunds not far behind.
Bunds also potentially acknowledge further complaints lodged with the Constitutional Court ahead of Tuesday's Bundestag vote on fiscal reform, reform which Merz believes will pass though he acknowledges it will be close; firmer by over 50 ticks and just shy of the 128.00 mark.
USTs await US Retail Sales before the latest update to Atlanta Fed's GDPnow tracker which is currently running at -2.4% though the gold-adjusted figure is -0.4%. Firmer by a handful of ticks but essentially contained with yields mixed and the curve flatter.
Gilts are following EGBs but magnitudes are much less pronounced. UK specifics light once again but the clock counts down to next week's OBR update and before that a welfare reform announcement.
Crude
Crude is on a stronger footing today, with gains attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions after the US struck Houthi targets. Further for the region, the militant group said it would continue naval operations until the Gaza blockade is lifted and aid is let in. Brent'May currently sits at the upper end of a USD 70.68-71.80/bbl range.
European gas is lower, after optimistic updates from Trump over the weekend, where he said he would speak to Russian President Putin on Tuesday.
Precious metals are mixed, with spot gold firmer by around USD 7/oz, whilst silver is a little lower. The yellow-metal has slipped below the USD 3,000/oz mark, to currently trade at the upper end of USD 2,982.36-2,994.12/oz range; upside today has been facilitated by the aforementioned heightened geopolitical tensions.
Base metals are mixed, with the complex failing to materially benefit from the constructive Chinese activity data overnight, where Industrial Production printed above expectations but with Urban unemployment and House Prices remaining at subdued levels. 3M LME Copper is a little firmer today and trades within a USD 9,776.45-9,845.35/t range. Elsewhere, Trump reiterated his firm stance on tariffs, stating there would be no exemptions on steel and aluminium duties and confirming reciprocal and sectoral tariffs will be imposed on April 2nd.
Iraq agreed to double electricity imports from Turkey.
India's February Gold imports at USD 2.3bln; February oil imports at USD 11.8bln
Geopolitics: Middle East
US President Trump ordered the US military to launch ‘decisive and powerful’ military action against Houthis in Yemen and told Iran to end support for Houthis immediately, while the Pentagon said US strikes against Houthis will last days or weeks., Furthermore, it was later reported that the death toll from the US attacks on Yemen reached 53.
US Defence Secretary Hegseth said the US campaign will be unrelenting, while he added that Iran has been enabling the Houthis far too long and they better back off.
US Secretary of State Rubio commented that the US military campaign in Yemen will go on until the Houthis no longer have the capability to strike ships and said there is no way Houthis would have the ability to attack shipping unless they had support from Iran.
US Secretary of State Rubio spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov on Saturday and told him about US operations against Houthis, while Lavrov stressed the need for an immediate cessation of the use of force against Yemen Houthis and said it is important for all parties to engage in political dialogue in order to find a solution that avoids further bloodshed, according to Reuters.
Yemen’s Houthis said naval operations will continue until the Gaza blockade is lifted and aid is let in, while the group said it targeted a US aircraft carrier with ballistic missiles and drones in the Red Sea but showed no proof, according to Reuters.
Iranian Revolutionary Guards top commander Salami said Tehran will respond decisively and destructively to any enemy taking threats into action and noted that Yemen’s Houthis take strategic and operational decisions on their own, according to state media.
Israeli air strike killed nine in Gaza amid ceasefire disputes. It was separately reported that the Israeli PM’s office said Israel will continue Gaza ceasefire talks in accordance with the US proposal for the immediate release of 11 living hostages and half of the dead. Furthermore, an Israeli delegation was in Egypt discussing hostages with senior Egyptian officials and PM Netanyahu moved to dismiss the head of the Shin Bet security service, according to the PM’s office cited by Reuters.
Syria’s military fired rockets and shells at Lebanon on Sunday after accusing Iran-backed Hezbollah of executing three Syrian army personnel, according to Bloomberg.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine’s partners must define a clear position on security guarantees and the path to peace must begin unconditionally, while he added there must be a foreign troop contingent based on Ukraine soil as part of a peacekeeping arrangement and the question of territory is complex and should be discussed later.
Russian Defence Ministry said Russia will demand Kyiv's neutral status and NATO's refusal to accept Ukraine in a peace treaty on Ukraine, while Russia opposes any troops in Ukraine as part of post-conflict guarantees, not just NATO troops. Furthermore, it was stated that the issue of unarmed observers as part of post-conflict international support for Ukraine may be discussed only once a peace treaty is worked out.
US President Trump said he will be speaking with Russia's President Putin on Tuesday and may have something to announce on Ukraine-Russia talks by Tuesday. Trump added that land and power plants are the focus of talks toward a Russia-Ukraine deal and they are already talking about "dividing up certain assets" between the two sides.
US President Trump said it feels like Russia is going to make a deal with them and stated that they had pretty good news coming out of Russia. Trump also announced that General Kellogg was appointed as Special Envoy to Ukraine and will no longer be an envoy to Russia.
US envoy Witkoff said differences between Ukraine and Russia have narrowed and they had positive discussions with Russian President Putin, while Witkoff said he expects Trump and Putin to speak this week and that US negotiating teams will meet with Ukrainians this week and will also meet with Russians.
UK PM Starmer said following a meeting with world leaders that they reaffirmed commitment to Ukraine’s long-term security and agreed that Ukraine must be able to defend itself and deter future Russian aggression, while they agreed military planners would convene again in the UK this week to progress practical plans for how militaries can support Ukraine’s future security. Furthermore, Starmer said they will accelerate military support, tighten sanctions on Russia’s revenues and will continue to explore all lawful routes to ensure that Russia pays for the damage it has done to Ukraine, as well as commented that Putin’s response to the ceasefire proposal is not good enough.
Russia launched an air attack on Ukraine's capital of Kyiv and the Russian Defence Ministry said its forces retook control of two settlements in Russia’s Kursk region.
Ukrainian drone attack targeted energy facilities in Russia's Astrakhan region and sparked a fire, according to the regional governor.
Geopolitics: Other
Azerbaijan’s Defence Ministry said Armenian forces opened fire on Azeri positions on Sunday, while Armenia’s Defence Ministry said the statement by Azerbaijan does not correspond to reality.
North Korea said its nuclear forces will 'exist forever' and criticised G7 states for nuclear hegemony, while it will steadily update and strengthen its nuclear armed forces and said demand by G7 for North Korea to abandon nuclear weapons is a provocation. It was also reported that North Korea condemned the US deployment of additional stealth fighter jets to Japan, according to KCNA.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Feb. Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.6%, prior -0.9%
08:30: Feb. Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.4%
08:30: Feb. Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.3%, prior -0.8%
08:30: March Empire Manufacturing, est. -2.0, prior 5.7
10:00: Jan. Business Inventories, est. 0.3%, prior -0.2%
10:00: March NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 42, prior 42
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
This morning we’ve launched our latest global market survey, which we’re doing on a quarterly basis now. We ask simple questions to tease out your thoughts on tariffs, whether your view on Germany has changed, your preference for US or European equities, whether the US equity correction is over just as it began, and a few other topical questions. We would very much appreciate all responses. They are all anonymous. We’ll publish the results later this week. The link to fill it in is here.
A reminder that late last week we launched our Deutsche Bank Research Institute (DBRI), a new offering designed to provide valuable insights for corporates, investors and policymakers navigating today’s complex and rapidly evolving global landscape. The Institute will connect the world to Europe and Europe to the world, across geopolitics, macroeconomics, technology, and the evolving corporate landscape. The new Institute website is here and is open to the public so you can share widely. It contains the inaugural “What Germany’s economy needs now” paper which outlines a series of necessary reforms which will demand a historic effort from the next government. Hopefully the huge fiscal stimulus package that will likely get approved this week (more later) will give them the opportunity to implement these reforms. See the English version here and the German here.
It’s a busy week for central bank watchers with decisions due from the Fed, the BoJ (both Wednesday) and the BoE (Thursday), amongst others. Economic data highlights include retail sales in the US (today), various US housing data, labour market stats in the UK (tomorrow) and inflation in Japan (Friday) and Canada (tomorrow). After we had the white smoke of a deal on Friday, the spotlight will be on the vote around the huge proposed fiscal expansion in Germany. The Bundestag and the Bundesrat are expected to hold votes tomorrow and Friday, respectively, before the new Bundestag sits from March 25. We'll preview these below. Note that overnight Trump has said he'll speak to Putin tomorrow so that's another thing to watch
The full day by day week ahead is at the end as usual but let's preview a few of the key events. Firstly, the Fed is widely expected to stay on hold on Wednesday. In their preview (see "March FOMC preview: Patience is a virtue amidst cross currents"), our economists still expect limited guidance about the policy path ahead given all the extreme uncertainty. The statement is likely to announce a pause in QT beginning in April, and we expect forward guidance indicating that QT is expected to resume once the debt ceiling is resolved and the liability composition of the balance sheet normalises. There are risks that a slowing is announced rather than a pause. Our economists also expect the SEP to maintain two rate cut dots this year but with an upward drift in individual dots that could push the median dot to one cut as a risk. The economic projections will likely show higher inflation, somewhat weaker growth, and an unchanged forecast for the unemployment rate this year. Last week's inflation data looked softer on the surface but as our economists pointed out, they still point towards another strong core PCE print. Today’s retail sales will likely be the last piece of data influencing the Fed.
In terms of Germany, this week will be a landmark one with votes on the deal in the Bundestag tomorrow and the Bundesrat on Friday. With the deal agreed on Friday the bulk of the execution risk has been averted. Assuming it goes through, which must be now over 95% probability wise (on my crude guestimates), our economists believe this could lead to a fiscal stimulus of 3-4% of GDP by 2027 at the latest. So don’t underestimate how huge this package is. Our economists’ note here from Friday outlines the remaining risks both in terms of the vote and the constitutional court ruling around whether not enough time was provided to scrutinise the deal. However the legislation is covered by less than 20 pages of text, so we think the legal risk here is low. We also don’t think there is a large risk that the constitutional court rules against the legitimacy of this outgoing parliament given that most experts believe they have constitutional power until the last session. I still don’t think markets have fully caught up to how much of a game changer this will be for Germany over the next few years. Longer-term though our inaugural Institute paper suggests Germany should use this period to embark on significant structural reform. Hopefully the comfort of higher growth towards the latter part of this decade won’t reduce the likelihood of this.
Back to central banks, the BoJ is expected to keep rates steady and the current monetary policy framework maintained on Wednesday. See our economists’ preview of the meeting here. For the BoE, our UK economist expects the BoE to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.5% (his full preview can be found here).
Asian equity markets have begun the week on the front foot after mixed China data but in anticipation of a domestic 30-point action plan to stimulate consumer spending and bolster stock and real estate markets. There is a press conference at 3pm local time (7am GMT so just after we go to print). As I check my screens, the KOSPI (+1.52%) is leading gains in the region with the Hang Seng (+1.07%), Nikkei (+1.20%), and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.83%) also notably higher. Mainland Chinese stocks are more mixed with the CSI (-0.24%) lower but with the Shanghai Composite (+0.19%) edging higher. S&P 500 (-0.55%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.59%) futures are slipping after the strong rally on Friday but are also being weighed down by an interview with Bessant over the weekend who suggested stock market corrections are normal and didn't suggest the administration is going to shy away from what it would see as difficult but necessary changes to the economy.
Coming back to China, industrial output accelerated at a faster pace in the first two months of 2025, advancing +5.9% (v/s +5.3% expected) while retail sales rose by +4.0% in the January-February period from a year ago, against market expectations for a +3.8% y/y growth. Fixed asset investment rose by +4.1% on a year-to-date basis, beating the +3.2% growth estimated by Bloomberg. The unemployment rate rose to 5.4% in February (v/s +5.1% expected), the highest level in two years. Meanwhile, new home prices dipped -0.1% versus a month earlier after two months of relatively steady prices indicating that the nation’s property slump lingers despite the country’s latest efforts to prop up the market. Used-home prices dropped -0.34%, the same pace as the previous month, and fell -0.1% from January in top-tier cities. The market has moved on to focus on the announcement as we go to print.
Looking back at last week now and markets saw a fresh selloff as tariff uncertainty mounted and investors grew more cautious on the US outlook. That meant the S&P 500 fell -2.27% in what was also its 4th consecutive weekly loss. Moreover, if the index sees a 5th weekly decline this week, that would be the longest run of declines since the 2022 bear market. However, on Friday there was then a very sharp recovery, which saw the S&P 500 pare back its losses for the week to rise +2.13% on the day, marking its best daily performance since Trump’s election victory back in November. And there were other signs by the weekend that market volatility was easing, as the VIX index closed at 21.77pts, which was its lowest level since the start of March.
Nevertheless, that recovery on Friday wasn’t enough to save most assets from a significant slump, with US HY spreads (+30bps last week) posting their biggest move wider last week since the turmoil last summer. Those losses were echoed around the world, albeit to a lesser extent, and Europe’s STOXX 600 fell -1.22% (+1.14% Friday) in its worst week of 2025 so far. Notably, Friday even saw gold prices move above the $3,000/oz mark for the first time intraday, before closing slightly beneath that at $2,984/oz.
There were also big moves in European sovereign bond markets, as Germany’s CDU leader Friedrich Merz reached an agreement with the Greens on proposals to amend the constitutional debt brake to allow more borrowing. That meant yields continued to push higher in Europe, with those on ten-year bunds up +3.9bps last week (+2.1bps Friday) to 2.87%, whilst the French 10yr OAT yield was up +1.3bps (+1.0bps Friday) to 3.57%.
For US Treasuries, it was a more stable story, with the 10yr yield up +1.1bps last week (+4.4bps Friday) to 4.31% despite having traded as low as 4.15% early last Tuesday. Friday's rise in yields came amid a significant jump in inflation expectations in the University of Michigan’s preliminary index for March. It showed 1yr expectations rising to +4.9% (vs. +4.3% expected), which is their highest since November 2022. And 5-10yr expectations also jumped up to a 32-year high of +3.9% (vs. +3.4% expected). In turn, that led investors to dial back their expectations for Fed rate cuts this year, with just 65bps priced in by the December meeting at the close, the fewest in over two weeks. The UoM survey continues to show extreme polarisation of inflation and economic views along party lines but the rise in expectations overall and from Independent voters is starting to be a concern.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 03/17/2025 - 08:16
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-fall-after-bessent-says-not-worried-slide-us-stocks
China Maps Out Latest Plan To Boost Consumption, Raise Incomes: Here's Why All Such Prior Plans Have Been Failures
China Maps Out Latest Plan To Boost Consumption, Raise Incomes: Here's Why All Such Prior Plans Have Been Failures
It feels like every 3 months China comes up with another zany plan to boost the economy and kickstart consumption, which spikes stocks for a few days, but promptly goes nowhere, is quickly forgotten... only to be replaced with another zany plan 3 months later, and so on.
Today was no exception to this laughable cadence - which has achieved absolutely nothing but https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/china-slumps-deflation-again-first-negative-core-cpi-print-2021
- and in a Sunday statement by Beijing State Council we learned that China will take steps to revive consumption by boosting people’s incomes, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.
Other just as vague measures include "stabilizing the stock and real estate markets, and offering incentives to raise the country’s birth rate, as the government tries to ease the deflationary pressures afflicting the economy."
Of course, we have heard all of these over and over and over, and nothing at all has changed in the past 4 years. So we kinda doubt that anyone will care this time, but we are confident that HFT and various algos who have the memory of a goldfish will push Chinese stocks higher for at least a few days before the sellers inevitably take the upper hand again.
According to Xinhua, Beijing will promote “reasonable growth” in wages and establish a sound mechanism for adjusting the minimum wage. It will also look at setting up a childcare subsidy system, as well as strengthening how investment can support consumption.
Other highlights of the plan include:
Enlarge variety of bond-related products suitable for individual investors
Adopt multiple measures to promote increase in farm incomes
Raise financial help for some students
Appropriately increase the basic pension for retirees
Ensure timely and full distribution of unemployment benefits
Support tourist attractions in expanding services and the reasonable extension of business hours
Support opening of duty-free shops in cities where conditions permit
Boost support for trade-in programs
Lower the interest rate on housing provident fund loans at an appropriate time
Scale back restrictions on consumption in an orderly manner
Accelerate the development of new technologies and products such as smart wearables and autonomous driving
More details are https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/16/business/china-consumption.html
, but they may well be moot: after all, invigorating consumption has been a challenge for the government since the end of the pandemic and everything Beijing has thrown at the problem has sunk into a seemingly unquenchable deflationary vortex. Retail sales have been anemic while consumer prices fell into deflation in February for the first time in over a year, although the latest macroeconomic dump suggests that things may be turning after all key data printed just slightly better than expected:
*CHINA JAN.-FEB. RETAIL SALES RISE 4% Y/Y; EST. 3.8%
*CHINA JAN.-FEB. FIXED INVESTMENT RISES 4.1% Y/Y; EST. 3.2%
*CHINA JAN.-FEB. INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RISES 5.9% Y/Y; EST. 5.3%
At annual parliamentary meetings this month, the country’s leadership made boosting consumption their top priority for the first time since President Xi Jinping came to power over a decade ago.
Ahead of the announcement, Chinese stocks rallied the most in two months on Friday after the State Council, China’s cabinet, announced that officials from the finance ministry, the central bank and other government departments plan to hold a press conference Monday on measures to boost consumption.
In a series of posts on X, China watcher Michael Pettis https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1901284566192832642
in China, explaining why so far all attempts to kickstart the economy have failed.
He starts by observing the above - namely that the government and Communist Party issued a lengthy list of planned initiatives on Sunday to get people to spend more, including larger pensions, better medical benefits and higher wages, but they "assigned many of these tasks to the country’s local governments, many of which are struggling under enormous debts and plummeting revenues from the sale of state land."
This, according to Pettis, is the problem with every attempt to boost the consumption share of GDP.
He then notes that the sustainable way to boost consumption is to increase the share of GDP retained by households. But increasing their share requires explicit or implicit transfers from either businesses or government. If the household share rises, after all, someone else's share must decline.
And while Beijing wants local governments to absorb said transfers, given their precarious cashflow positions, for now they can do so mainly by placing new burdens on households or businesses, e.g. through taxes, layoffs, fees, or cutbacks on existing services.
As a result, the net impact on households is reduced, and the remaining costs are absorbed by businesses. The former doesn't help boost consumption, and the latter, by indirectly forcing businesses to absorb the costs, is bad for the economy.
The only other way to do so involves forcing local governments either to transfer to households a large part of the substantial assets they control, or to liquidate those assets in order directly or indirectly pay for higher household income.
The problem, according to Pettis, is that this implies a radical transformation of the relationship between Beijing and local governments and between local governments and the households and businesses in their jurisdiction, and given the sheer extent of the needed transfers, it will be very difficult.
This is why, for all the years of posturing and promising to boost consumption, it has been impossible for China to make much progress to reboot the economy. Since Beijing has to raise the household share of GDP by 10% at the very least, that means an equivalent reduction of someone else's share.
Pettis also notes that many analysts insist that China will choose to avoid rebalancing altogether, but they miss the point. These levels of imbalance simply cannot be sustained if neither China nor the rest of the world can absorb the growing gap between consumption and production.
At the end of the day, China will rebalance one way or another. The important question is how it rebalances: whether an increase in the household share of GDP will occur in the form of a debt crisis and a sharp contraction in GDP, as occurred in the US in the early 1930s... or through many years of stable consumption growth and much lower GDP growth, as occurred in Japan after 1990, or of a surge in consumption that keeps GDP growth stable (which would be historically unprecedented).
These are arithmetically the only three ways to rebalance. And since all are extremely painful, either acutely now or chronically over the long-term, no surprise then that Beijing just keeps pretending it will do something while merely kicking the can until it is finally one day forced to do something.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 03/16/2025 - 22:45
Getting Out Of Forever Wars
Getting Out Of Forever Wars
https://realclearwire.com/articles/2025/03/14/getting_out_of_forever_wars_1097553.html
,
A Pragmatic Approach to Protecting U.S. Security Interests
?itok=UJbs7i9M
Introduction
Since the 9/11 attacks, the United States has been mired in "forever wars"—prolonged conflicts with no clear victory, draining trillions of dollars, thousands of lives, and economic vitality. A 2023 Pew poll shows 54% of Americans favor reducing overseas military commitments, with 83% prioritizing domestic needs—a clear call for change.
The U.S. can no longer afford years of military overreach. A pragmatic strategy emphasizing diplomacy, allied burden-sharing, and strategic restraint is essential to protect national interests without exhausting finite resources.
The Overwhelming Cost of War
The post-9/11 wars have exacted a staggering toll. Brown University’s Costs of War Project https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/papers/summary
the U.S. has spent $8 trillion—38% of 2020’s GDP—on conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Syria, equating to $24,000 per citizen.
Future interest on this debt could add $2.2 trillion to the national debt by 2050, burdening future generations. Human losses are equally dire: 7,000 service members and 8,000 contractors killed, 55,000 injured, and 940,000 total deaths from direct violence, with 3.6 million more dying indirectly in war zones.
Beyond numbers, the mental health crisis is profound. Veterans and active-duty personnel from these conflicts have died by suicide at four times the rate of combat losses—over 28,000 since 2001, according to 2022 VA https://www.mentalhealth.va.gov/docs/data-sheets/2024/2024-Annual-Report-Part-2-of-2_508.pdf
– mainly driven by post-traumatic stress disorder and repeated deployments.
Adding to the exhausting cost of conflict, caring for these veterans will cost $2.2-$2.5 trillion by 2050. These financial and human costs prove the wars’ unsustainability; constrained resources and public concerns require the U.S. to reassess its global security approach.
Rethinking Overseas Commitments
The U.S. maintains 750 military facilities across 80 countries, per a 2021 International Institute of Strategic https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2022/09/overseas-bases-and-us-strategic-posture/#:~:text=While%20this%20is%20only%20about,budget%20%E2%80%93%20to%20maintain%20and%20sustain
that 91% of post-9/11 operations relied on these bases. Yet, they’ve often fueled instability—think of the disorder stemming from Iraq’s insurgency or Afghanistan’s collapse—rather than the security they were supposed to provide. This sprawling footprint, born of Cold War logic, no longer aligns with today’s fiscal environment, demanding a leaner, more practical approach.
A Pragmatic Path Forward
Some argue that overseas military bases help deter terrorism, but the evidence suggests otherwise. According to the https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/terrorism-immigration-risk-analysis-1975-2023
(2023), the probability of dying in a U.S. terrorist attack is just 1 in 150 million.
Since 9/11, America has experienced nine https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/terrorism-immigration-risk-analysis-1975-2023#uniqueness-911
, resulting in a total of 44 deaths. In contrast, during the same period, the U.S. military suffered over 7,000 fatalities and 55,000 injuries in Iraq and Afghanistan, raising questions about the purpose of military operations overseas.
The cost alone is staggering. According to a Cato Institute https://www.cato.org/commentary/what-does-america-really-gain-excess-military-bases
, a conservative baseline for total overseas basing costs is $80 billion annually, with some estimates reaching $100-$150 billion. This reflects differing indirect expenses, like troop support, highlighting the obscurity of overseas spending.
A 2023 RAND https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA1100/RRA1125-2/RAND_RRA1125-2.pdf
also found that 30% of bases lack strategic purpose. A 25% reduction, focusing on outdated Cold War sites and unproductive Middle East efforts, would save $15 billion annually.
However, completely withdrawing is unwise; bases in Japan and Germany still deter Russia and China and allow forces to posture when needed. Closing outdated posts in stable regions—like parts of Europe or Asia—frees billions for pressing domestic defense needs.
The use of hard power has become overextended, yielding little success and eventually weighing heavily on the American public. A more effective strategy entails carefully reducing America’s overseas presence, reallocating resources, and reprioritizing homeland defense.
Strengthening Homeland Defense
President Trump’s campaign emphasized ending long-term military engagements, reducing overseas commitments, and reprioritizing defense strategies to enhance defending the homeland.
His 2025 executive https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/the-iron-dome-for-america/
from advancing adversaries. However, these initiatives currently face funding challenges.
The FY2024 defense https://www.defense.gov/news/releases/release/article/3326875/department-of-defense-releases-the-presidents-fiscal-year-2024-defense-budget/
($850 billion) allocates $69 billion to overseas operations—defending allies—while just $29.8 billion (3.5%) boosts missile defense, unchanged since 2019.
Redirecting even half of that $69 billion could modernize defenses, aligning spending with existential risks over foreign entanglements.
However, missile defense is not the only way to protect the nation. It also demands attention to vulnerabilities closer to home, such as securing the borders—another pillar of homeland security.
Securing the Border
Border security, a neglected homeland priority, ties directly to resource reallocation. In FY2024, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) https://homeland.house.gov/2024/10/24/startling-stats-factsheet-fiscal-year-2024-ends-with-nearly-3-million-inadmissible-encounters-10-8-million-total-encounters-since-fy2021/
$130 billion, challenging public safety and straining national security.
To help tackle this unprecedented challenge, President Trump's recent executive https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/securing-our-borders/
, which declare a national emergency at the southern border and direct the military to support the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in safeguarding the nation's territorial integrity, highlight the priority of protecting the homeland.
DHS has also ramped up the activities of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), leading to a significant 627% increase in the detainment of criminal aliens since January. This surge has prompted DHS to request additional military assistance to aid the detainment process. As a result, more military troops are being deployed to support CBP along the border, and the military detention facility at Guantanamo Bay is being repurposed to accommodate the detention of criminal migrants.
While reallocating military resources from overseas commitments to border security can effectively address domestic threats without requiring additional spending, as illustrated by Secretary of Defense Hegseth's recent decision to https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/article/4072698/hegseth-addresses-strengthening-military-by-cutting-excess-refocusing-dod-budget/
eight percent of the FY26 defense budget toward homeland priorities, this approach also highlights a more significant imbalance in U.S. defense spending.
Burden Sharing Security
Disproportionate global security commitments add to the problem, as the U.S. must push NATO allies to meet their 2% GDP defense spending target—America https://usafacts.org/articles/what-is-nato-and-what-does-it-cost-to-be-a-member/
twice their combined total from 2014 to 2022.
Leading allies, like the United Kingdom and Germany, spend less as a share of https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Back-to-Basics/gross-domestic-product-GDP
—a U.S.-only defense investment and activity used to counter China that costs $10B annually.
The United States can no longer bear the burden of defending others. It must reassess its global security stance and agreements to ensure that costs are shared equitably. A balanced use of projecting power is needed to secure American influence abroad.
Balancing Power Projection
America’s decades-old philosophy of fighting its battles on someone else’s property remains vital to national security. A platform that can project US power quickly and support those efforts remains relevant.
Overseas “power projection https://www.army.mil/standto/archive/2020/01/17/#:~:text=Strategic%20Power%20Projection%20encompasses%20the%20U.S.%20Army's,anywhere%20in%20the%20world%20at%20any%20time.
”—like overseas mobility bases and carriers in the Pacific—are necessary, enabling rapid response and sustainment to a crisis. However, basing that does not support projecting power should be reconsidered for closure. Trimming these frees funds for soft power—diplomacy and economic leverage—that achieves similar ends at a lower cost.
Harnessing Soft Power
Soft power—persuading through attraction, not force—offers a sustainable edge. Diplomacy can preempt conflicts that mimic hard power wins, such as the https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/18/sudan-warring-sides-agree-to-new-ceasefire-after-fighting-intensifies
.
Diplomacy can also secure trade deals, such as the 2020 U.S.-Japan Trade https://www.fas.usda.gov/topics/japan-trade-agreement#:~:text=The%20U.S.%2DJapan%20Trade%20Agreement,or%20receive%20preferential%20tariff%20access.
, which cut tariffs and secured U.S. farm exports to counter China’s trade dominance. Yet, while diplomacy can secure trade wins to help balance its trade, its effectiveness diminishes when multilateral agreements lead to persistent inequities.
For example, the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), a multilateral trade agreement, incurred a https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/japan-korea-apec/apec#:~:text=U.S.%20goods%20exports%20to%20APEC,(%2497.7%20billion)%20over%202023.
, America’s total global goods and services deficit was $918.4 billion in 2024, up $133.5 billion from $784.9 billion in 2023.
This unsustainable trend indicates that the U.S. needs to rethink its negotiating approach in line with more equitable agreements that work directly with each partner, making adherence and fairness more manageable.
However, diplomacy and trade agreements alone cannot guarantee a nation's security. Economic strength is vitally important and underwrites all its activities, making it essential to influence, leverage, and safeguard its interests.
Prioritizing Economic Security
has fueled energy exports, supporting Europe against Russia and countering Iran. Energy independence and growth are critical in maintaining America’s edge over rivals and securing its position as a preeminent global power.
However, the U.S. must address significant financial challenges, including its $34 trillion national https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/
over China, purchasing power parity, or how much your currency can buy, shows that China leads by 23% and is growing. More concerning is that experts predict that China will surpass the total U.S. economy by 2040.
Remaining a global leader requires economic security and realigning priorities. Protecting against rising financial challenges and economic juggernauts like China means redirecting excessive global commitments to infrastructure and tech, not unproductive overseas commitments.
Conclusion
The post-9/11 wars have cost the United States $8 trillion, nearly a million lives directly and indirectly, and decades of overstretched resources—losses no nation can sustain indefinitely. To secure its interests, the U.S. must pivot from endless military entanglements to a strategy of calculated restraint: reducing outdated overseas commitments, redirecting funds to homeland defense and economic resilience, and leaning on diplomacy and allied cooperation to project influence.
This shift isn’t retreat—it’s recalibration. By prioritizing what strengthens the nation, from border security to soft power, America can safeguard its future without repeating its past mistakes.
Major General Don McGregor (USAF, ret.) is a combat veteran and an F-16 fighter pilot. While serving as a General Officer in the Pentagon, he was the National Guard Director of Strategy, Policy, Plans, and International Affairs, advising a four-star Joint Chiefs of Staff member.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 03/16/2025 - 22:10
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/getting-out-forever-wars
Pentagon Says Operations 'Continue' Overnight Against Yemen's Houthis
Pentagon Says Operations 'Continue' Overnight Against Yemen's Houthis
Update(2125ET): In the overnight hours (local), the US military has launched what appears to be a second wave of airstrikes on Yemen. US Central Command posted a new video Sunday saying that operations "continue"...
CENTCOM forces continue operations against Iran-backed Houthi terrorists... https://t.co/zEWykoDKQR
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1901428374486089974?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
"The United States and Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen are both vowing escalation after the U.S. launched airstrikes to deter the rebels from attacking military and commercial vessels on one of the world’s busiest shipping corridors," AP writes.
Like with similar strikes under Biden - and now with Trump - where's Congress? What authorization is there for a new war in the Middle East?
When you've lost the hawkish FoxCon pundit Ann Coulter...
Why did we have to do this? Is it part of our constitution that we must be bombing someone at all times? https://t.co/WUt63jF7uS
— Ann Coulter (@AnnCoulter) https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/1901351594186133622?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
* * *
Yemen's Health Ministry now says that 32 people, including children, died after Saturday's major US airstrikes pounded Sanaa, with President Donald Trump warning the Houthis not to attack ships passing through the Red Sea.
But on Sunday, that's precisely what the Houthis did: a Houthi military announcement claimed the group carried out "a qualitative operation" on the US aircraft carrier Harry S Truman. "Our forces targeted the Truman aircraft carrier with 18 ballistic and cruise missiles and a drone," a spokesman said.
?itok=FNb4Wuun
Nasruddin Amer, deputy head of the Houthi media office, described that Saturday's US air strikes - which reportedly hit some 170 sites - won’t deter the Shia armed group back by Iran.
Amer pledged more attacks on Red Sea shipping will come: "Sanaa will remain Gaza’s shield and support and will not abandon it no matter the challenges," he said.
But later in the day Sunday an unnamed Pentagon official was quoted in Reuters as rejecting the Houthi claim. The official dismissed the claim of that a missile and drone attack came close to hitting the USS Harry S Truman.
A subsequent Fox report said that US warships shot down any inbound Houthi drones, and that they were not a serious threat.
Saturday's strike on Yemen not only resulted in civilian deaths, but a reported over 100 injured, as President Trump vowed to “use overwhelming lethal force” while warning Iran to "immediately" cut its support.
"Your time is up, and your attacks must stop, starting today. If they don’t, hell will rain down upon you like nothing you have ever seen before," the president said on Truth Social.
"I have ordered the US military today to launch a decisive and powerful military operation against the Houthi terrorists in Yemen,” he said, adding that he's willing to use "overwhelming lethal force until we have achieved our objective."
An American defense official denied the Houthi statement:
Houthis: We attacked the US aircraft carrier USS Harry Truman with 18 BALLISTIC MISSILES and drones
‘We will not hesitate to target all US warships in Red Sea and Arabian Sea’https://t.co/eOHQ2c5AI4
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/1901336863010414825?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The Houthis' leader last just Friday had declared a four-day deadline before attacks on shipping would resume. That four day timeline had ended by close of Tuesday, which means the Red Sea could be soon fiery scene of drone and missile attacks out of Yemen once again.
Since 2023 over 100 missile and drone attacks on commercial vessels have occurred in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis have also downed several MQ-9 Reaper drones operated by the Pentagon.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 03/16/2025 - 21:25
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/houthis-claim-ballistic-missile-attack-uss-truman-carrier
Behind The White House's Decision To Ignore Activist Judge, Let Plane Full Of Deported Criminals Continue To El Salvador
Behind The White House's Decision To Ignore Activist Judge, Let Plane Full Of Deported Criminals Continue To El Salvador
Update (2112ET): The Trump administration says it disregarded a judge's order to turn around two planeloads of Venezuelan criminals because the flights were over international waters and therefore the ruling did not apply, Axios reports, citing two senior officials - one of whom made clear that it's "Very important that people understand we are not actively defying court orders."
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The Trump administration argues that US District Judge James Boasberg overstepped his authority when he issued an order blocking the president from deporting roughly 250 alleged Tren de Aragua gang members under the Alien Enemies Act of 1789, a wartime law that gives the executive branch immense power to deport noncitizens without judicial hearings.
"This is headed to the Supreme Court. And we're going to win," a senior White House official told Axios, adding "It's the showdown that was always going to happen between the two branches of government."
"And it seemed that this was pretty clean. You have Venezuelan gang members ... These are bad guys, as the president would say."
Axios then cites Democrat attorney Mark S. Zaid...
this guy...
I've gotten clearances for guys who had child porn issues
— Mark S. Zaid (@MarkSZaidEsq) https://twitter.com/MarkSZaidEsq/status/962537227757682688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
...who posted on X "Court order defied. First of many as I've been warning and start of true constitutional crisis," adding that it could eventually lead to another Trump impeachment, according to Axios.
According to the report, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller "orchestrated" the flights in the West Wing in tandem with DHS Secretary Kristy Noem.
More via Axios:
The timeline: The president signed the executive order invoking the Alien Enemies Act on Friday night, but intentionally did not advertise it. On Saturday morning, word of the order leaked, officials said, prompting a mad scramble to get planes in the air.
At 2:31 p.m. Saturday, an immigration activist who tracks deportation flights, posted on X that "TWO HIGHLY UNUSUAL ICE flights" were departing from Texas to El Salvador, which had agreed to accept Venezuelan gang members deported from the U.S.
Hours later, during a court hearing filed by the ACLU., Boasberg ordered a halt to the deportations and said any flights should be turned around mid-air.
"This is something that you need to make sure is complied with immediately," he told the Justice Department, according to the Washington Post.
At that point, about 6:51 p.m., both flights were off the Yucatan Peninsula, according to flight paths posted on X.
REPORT: Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller secretly orchestrated the Venezuelan gang members' flights to El Salvador to get the criminals out of the country before an activist judge could take action.
Brilliant.
According to Axios, the Trump administration *ignored* the court… https://t.co/oojJSyxWgL
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1901377247401177365?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
An internal discussion was had in the White House as to whether they should order the planes to turn around - only to press ahead per administration lawyers.
"There was a discussion about how far the judge's ruling can go under the circumstances and over international waters and, on advice of counsel, we proceeded with deporting these thugs," said the senior official.
"They were already outside of US airspace. We believe the order is not applicable," said the other official.
It’s ridiculous that a Democratic president can import violent gang members, but a Republican president can’t deport them.
— Rep. Mike Collins (@RepMikeCollins) https://twitter.com/RepMikeCollins/status/1901403536229114097?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
* * *
Pick up one of these https://store.zerohedge.com/dual-arc-plasma-lighter-flashlight?utm_source=zerohedge.com&utm_medium=article&utm_campaign=store_promo
!
* * *
?itok=ryneMXjM
Update (1220ET): In response to judge James Boasberg's move to halt the Trump administration's deportation of alleged gang members, Rep. Brandon Gill (R-TX) says he's filing articles of impeachment against the judge.
"I'll be filing Articles of Impeachment against activist judge James Boasberg this week," Gill posted on X.
I’ll be filing Articles of Impeachment against activist judge James Boasberg this week. https://t.co/kh4vfooS2A
— Congressman Brandon Gill (@RepBrandonGill) https://twitter.com/RepBrandonGill/status/1901097856066257071?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
In response to Boasberg's order (read all about it below), Attorney General Pam Bondi made an https://x.com/mrddmia/status/1901154963926962556
with the DC Circuit Court to pause the order, asking the court to "halt this massive, unauthorized imposition on the Executive's authority to remove people that Defendants had determined to be members of TdA (Tren de Aragua).
?itok=_3aJ_yjS
The Supreme Court in 1948 upheld the law and banned federal courts from even reviewing presidential actions undertaken pursuant to the law. Unelected inferior judges have no authority to seize the powers of the presidency or to overturn Supreme Court rulings. https://t.co/e8opuydE7D
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1901321458648781148?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Maybe the Trump administration should just take AOC's advice to ignore the court?
"The Biden Administration should ignore the court" - AOC, 2023 https://t.co/fHF4PAykQT
— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1889337281518969102?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Oopsie... Too Late
Boasberg's order was issued while a plane full of Venezuelan prisoners was headed to El Salvador - eventually landing in the country...
"Today, the first 238 members of the Venezuelan criminal organization, Tren de Aragua, arrived in our country. They were immediately transferred to CECOT, the Terrorism Confinement Center, for a period of one year (renewable)," said President Nayib Bukele on X. "On this occasion, the U.S. has also sent us 23 MS-13 members wanted by Salvadoran justice, including two ringleaders. One of them is a member of the criminal organization’s highest structure."
Today, the first 238 members of the Venezuelan criminal organization, Tren de Aragua, arrived in our country. They were immediately transferred to CECOT, the Terrorism Confinement Center, for a period of one year (renewable).
The United States will pay a very low fee for them,… https://t.co/tfsi8cgpD6
— Nayib Bukele (@nayibbukele) https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1901245427216978290?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Then, responding to Boasberg's order, Bukele posted: "Oopsie... Too late"
Oopsie…
Too late 😂 https://t.co/nDHL6deLJq
— Nayib Bukele (@nayibbukele) https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1901238762614517965?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
* * *
Have you picked up a https://store.zerohedge.com/custom-handcrafted-american-flags?utm_source=zerohedge.com&utm_medium=article&utm_campaign=store_promo
yet at ZH Store?
* * *
A federal judge who's been a critical ally to the deep state has preemptively blocked the Trump administration from deporting five Venezuelan nationals under the Alien Enemies Act (AEA) of 1978.
US District Judge James Boasberg (more on that below) issued his preemptive ruling a few hours after the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) filed a motion on the Venezuelans' behalf against Trump's reported plan to invoke the AEA to accelerate the removal of illegals from the US.
The ACLU asked Boasberg to block the use of the law, though Trump has yet to invoke it. Boasberg, of course, complied, granting a restraining order Saturday morning that prevents the administration from removing the five Venezuelan nationals for two weeks so the judge can hold a hearing on their challenge.
In their filing, the ACLU, alongside Democracy Forward and the ACLU of the District of Columbia, stated that the government has moved the Venezuelans - alleged members of Tren De Aragua, to a facility in Texas, which they state are being used "as staging facilities to remove Venezuelan men under the AEA."
Of note, the Trump administration officially declared Tren de Aragua https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1892263711399633273
last month.
If the name Boasberg rings a bell, refresh your memory below...
Boasberg is the judge who was in charge of FISA when it was being used to illegally spy on Trump as part of an operation to overthrow the president. https://t.co/btXKlSfqB6
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1744814291830653314?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/they-must-be-eating-xanax-tic-tacs-blob-has-migraine
The ACLU's wish is his command!
?itok=DF_M3Ggc
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 03/16/2025 - 21:11
Johns Hopkins University Laying Off Over 2,000 Workers After Federal Funding Cut
Johns Hopkins University Laying Off Over 2,000 Workers After Federal Funding Cut
(emphasis ours),
Johns Hopkins University said on Thursday that it will lay off over 2,000 workers worldwide following the Trump administration’s termination of $800 million in federal funding for the institution.
?itok=Pbgsz22l
The university, along with its affiliates, is the largest private employer in Maryland, contributing to more than 93,600 jobs in the fiscal year 2022, according to its previous economic impact https://gce.jhu.edu/economic-impact-report/
.
The layoffs involve 247 domestic U.S. workers for the academic institution and 1,975 positions outside the United States in 44 countries.
Johns Hopkins said the job cuts will impact its Bloomberg School of Public Health, its medical school, and an affiliated non-profit for international health, Jhpiego.
“This is a difficult day for our entire community,” the university said in a statement. “The termination of more than $800 million in USAID funding is now forcing us to wind down critical work here in Baltimore and internationally.”
Last week, hundreds of Johns Hopkins affiliates rallied near the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, D.C., to oppose cuts to research funding and resulting layoffs.
The university’s publication, https://hub.jhu.edu/2025/03/10/stand-up-for-science-2025/
, stated that the Trump administration’s cuts to federal research funding would threaten more than 600 ongoing clinical trials conducted by Johns Hopkins, which were previously supported by the National Institutes of Health (NIH).
“The NIH is the only place that can fund science in the public interest because they don’t have shareholders,” Bloomberg professor Jack Iwashyna, who attended the rally, https://hub.jhu.edu/2025/03/10/stand-up-for-science-2025/
Hub. Iwashyna was an NIH funding recipient to research pneumonia recovery.
Johns Hopkins University did not respond to a request for comment by publication time.
The developments at Johns Hopkins University come after the Trump administration canceled $400 million in grants and contracts for New York’s Columbia University due to allegations of anti-Semitism on campus. It stated on March 7 that the school holds about $5 billion in federal grant commitments, and the fund cancelation only marked “the first round of action,” with additional cancellations expected to follow.
The Trump administration is also investigating 60 American universities, including Hopkins, over anti-Semitism on campuses.
This also follows Trump’s https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/trump-suspends-us-foreign-assistance-for-90-days-upon-further-review-5796208
of a 90-day freeze on all foreign aid and development funding after taking office on Jan. 20, pending reviews to ensure the programs aligned with U.S. interests under his “America First” policy umbrella.
The Trump administration has suspended most USAID programs andhttps://img.theepochtimes.com/us/usaid-puts-all-direct-hire-personnel-on-administrative-leave-5804467
on March 10 that about 83 percent of USAID contracts, or 5,200, have been canceled.
Rubio said the canceled contracts “did not serve (and in some cases harmed) the core national interests of the United States” but added that the government would retain the remaining 1,000 contracts under USAID.
Reuters and Katabella Roberts contributed to this report.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 03/16/2025 - 21:00
Ruthless Sibling Leaders Of Zeta Cartel Charged In US - Face Death Penalty
Ruthless Sibling Leaders Of Zeta Cartel Charged In US - Face Death Penalty
Two of Mexico's most notorious former cartel leaders were arraigned in Washington DC on Friday on a range of federal charges that include drug trafficking, firearm possession and money laundering. Because the charges include engaging in a continuing criminal enterprise involving "multiple murder conspiracies," they face the possibility of federal executions.
Brothers Miguel Trevino Morales and Omar Trevino Morales -- ages 52 and 48, respectively -- are the former leaders of the Los Zetas cartel that once dominated Mexico's northern region along the US frontier. Also known by aliases "Z-40" and "Z-42," they allegedly led the cartel in succession from October 2012 until March 2015. Miguel's term ended with his https://www.texastribune.org/2013/07/15/zetas-leader-reportedly-captured/
. Since that time, Los Zetas has faded relative to the Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation cartels.
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, who oversaw Los Zetas’ reign of terror with grotesque impunity and ruthlessness, and a sheer disregard for anything beyond their wealth, power and control,” said Acting Special Agent in Charge Michael Alfonso of New York's ICE Homeland Security Investigations.
The Morales brothers are among 29 cartel drug lords https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/mexico-extradites-29-cartel-dug-lords-us-trump-not-backing-away-tariff-war
to the United States by Mexico in February. "The defendants taken into US custody today include leaders and managers of drug cartels recently designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and Specially Designated Global Terrorists," the DOJ said at the time.
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“The Criminal Division is dedicated to achieving the Attorney General’s goal of the total elimination of cartels,” said Supervisory Official Matthew R. Galeotti. “As alleged, https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/leaders-los-zetas-violent-mexican-drug-cartel-arraigned-drug-trafficking-firearm-and-money
, members of rival cartels, members of the Guatemalan government, and Guatemalan drug traffickers."
The Zetas were founded by deserters from Mexico's elite special forces, and had a reputation for fearsome brutality, to include decapitations and hanging corpses from highway overpasses. They were also blamed for killing 52 people via an arson attack on a Monterrey casino, and https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-31731842
who resisted the Zeta's demands that they become drug mules.
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The US government's request for the duo's extradition predates the current Trump administration. Their February transfer came after the State Department announced it had https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2025-02873.pdf
against taking unilateral military action inside her country.
Earlier, Sheinbaum said she had approved US surveillance drone flights over Mexico. That claim came after CNN reported that the administration tapped https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/18/politics/cia-drone-missions-mexico-drug-cartels/index.html
. The secret missions were communicated to members of Congress, with the description of the undertaking making no mention of a partnership with the Mexican government.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 03/16/2025 - 20:25
Bessent Says Market "Corrections Are Healthy", Offers "No Guarantees" There Won't Be A Recession
Bessent Says Market "Corrections Are Healthy", Offers "No Guarantees" There Won't Be A Recession
Earlier today, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson described several of the factors behind the recent market swoon (the 10% drop in 20 days was the 5th fastest ever correction in history; for context the fastest ever was 8 days during the onset of Covid on February 27, 2020), and besides the various fundamental causes, the strategist said that "perhaps more than anything else" what led to the most recent technical breakdown in the S&P 500 was "Trump recently indicating that he is not focused on the stock market in the near term as a barometer of his policies and agenda." One could go further: and in fact, we did go further last week when we asked if Trump is actively https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/trump-trying-push-us-recession
), just that by the time the US economy is once again firing on all cylinders and the market at all time highs, will be just in time for the mid-term elections in 2026.
Well, if Trump's "let them eat stocks" attitude indeed was the biggest driver behind the recent selloff, then Friday's furious rally may prove to be very short-lived, because speaking on Sunday's episode of Meet the Press, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a former hedge fund manager, not only said he’s not worried about the recent market downturn, but added that "there are no guarantees" there won't be a US recession. In other words, the Trump put remains as nebulous as ever, and meanwhile statements like this one from Howard Lutnick that “https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/finance-and-economy/3347796/howard-lutnick-economy-humming-by-fourth-quarter/
” suggest that pretty much anything goes in Q1, Q2 and Q3.... and whatever does happen will be blamed on Biden.
“I’ve been in the investment business for 35 years, and I can tell you that corrections are healthy, they are normal,” Bessent said on NBC’s Meet The Press. And what he said next is absolutely spot on and something Biden's puppetmaster should have been made aware of when they were juicing the economy with $1 trillion in debt every 100 days:
"What's not healthy is straight up, that you get these euphoric markets. That's how you get a financial crisis. It would have been much healthier if someone had put the brakes on in ‘06, ‘07. We wouldn't have had the problems in ‘08. So, I'm not worried about the markets. Over the long term, if we put good tax policy in place, deregulation and energy security, the markets will do great."
Bessent's comments come at amid investor concerns about the economic effects of the Trump administration’s moves around tariffs, immigration and cuts to the federal government, which wiped out trillions in market cap from the S&P 500 and pushed the S&P into a correction.
Losses deepened with mounting growth concerns and souring consumer sentiment, but Bessent isn't losing much sleep over the market slide. Asked what he has to "say to Americans who have real concerns that their retirement savings may be in jeopardy", the Treasury Secretary responded that "one week does not the market make. As Warren Buffett says, over the short term the market is a voting machine. Over the long term, it's a weighing machine.. It would have been very easy for us to come in, run these reckless policies that have been happening before. We've got these large government deficits, 6.7% of GDP. We've never seen this when we're not in war time, not in recession. We are bringing those down in a responsible way. We are going to have a transition. And we are not going to have a crisis."
This is precisely what we noted https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wall-street-finally-admits-doges-work-detox-government-critical-will-be-brutally-painful
when we showed that in 2024, one third of GDP came from government spending, a record high excluding periods of war or crisis; this was financed by 6-7% budget deficits, another unwelcome peacetime record, as Bank of America itself admitted.
?itok=RVG4kjbA
"We are putting the policies in place that will make the affordability crisis go down, inflation moderate and as we set the sails I am confident that the American people will come our way,” said Bessent, who ran Key Square Group before joining the administration.
As the scope of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy broadens, consumers across the political spectrum have become increasingly concerned that the extra duties will lead to higher costs. Global tariffs are now in place on steel and aluminum and there’s an April 2 deadline pending for even broader levies. And while inflation cooled last month, any sustained pickup in price pressures risks causing households to limit discretionary purchases.
In the interview, Bessent said the American Dream isn’t contingent on being able to buy cheap goods from China. Families instead want to afford a home and see their children do better than they are.
"The American dream is not let them eat flat screens. If American families aren't able to afford a home, don't believe that their children will do better than they are, the American dream is not contingent on cheap baubles from China, that it is more than that. And we are focused on affordability, but it's mortgages, it's cars, it's real wage gains... Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream. The American dream is rooted in the concept that any citizen can achieve prosperity, upward mobility and economic security."
Finally when asked if the US will have a recession, Bessent said "there are no guarantees. Who would have predicted COVID, right? So I can predict that we are putting in robust policies that will be durable."
"And could there be an adjustment? Because I tell you that this massive government spending that we'd had, that if that had kept going, we have to wean our country off of that. And on the other side, we are going to invigorate the private sector. I had a meeting with small bankers last week. And they are ready to start lending. And I can tell you that Main Street is going to do well."
Our Administration and the American people are focused on the real economy, not fake news polling or “vibecessions.”
After four disastrous years for families and workers, President Trump has the track record and vision to deliver the most vibrant economy and capital markets in… https://t.co/Z3hdg5Wp39
— Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) https://twitter.com/SecScottBessent/status/1901302651288998185?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Or as we said on Friday, https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wall-street-finally-admits-doges-work-detox-government-critical-will-be-brutally-painful
"
Amid concerns about the US economy, the Fed is due to meet this week and keep rates on hold. Fed Chair Powell emphasized earlier this month that the central bank doesn’t need to be in a hurry to cut rates - which is strange since Powell was clearly in a hurry to cut rates back in September ahead of the presidential election when the economy was "supposedly" doing so much better than it is now - and the Fed chair will be pressed about the uncertainty and risks emerging.
Some other highlights from the full 10 minute interview:
I am confident that the American people will come our way” on Trump tariff policy
KRISTEN WELKER: A majority of Americans say they disapprove of President Trump's handling of the economy. Consumer sentiment plunged this week to a 29-month low. JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs slashed growth expectations. Why are all of those folks wrong and President Trump is right about his tariff policy?
SEC. SCOTT BESSENT: Well, Kristen, and thanks for having me here. And look, what I am not going to say, that went on for a long time under the Biden administration, and for a lot of -- lot of the media, and I'm not going to point fingers, but they used to say it was a vibe session, and the American people don't know what they talk about. And Donald Trump, his administration, myself, all believe that the American people know what they're feeling and that we believe that our policies will change that. Clearly, they are traumatized from what's happened with this affordability crisis that was brought on the – by the previous administration. They want relief. We've been in for eight weeks. We're putting the policies in place that will make the affordability crisis go down, inflation moderate, and that the – as we set the sails, I am confident that the American people will come our way, even if some of the media narrative doesn't.
“I'm not worried about the markets” following worst week in stock market in two years
KRISTEN WELKER: And just to be clear, I mean, these are polls that are taken two months into President Trump's presidency. But let's talk about what happened in the stock market this week, worst week for the market in two years. Does that worry you, Mr. Secretary?
SEC. SCOTT BESSENT: Not at all. I've been in the investment business for 35 years, and I can tell you that corrections are healthy. They're normal. What's not healthy is straight up, that you get these euphoric markets. That's how you get a financial crisis. It would have been much healthier if someone had put the brakes on in ‘06, ‘07. We wouldn't have had the problems in ‘08. So, I'm not worried about the markets. Over the long term, if we put good tax policy in place, deregulation and energy security, the markets will do great.
"One week does not the market make”
KRISTEN WELKER: I hear you say you're not worried about the markets, but nearly 60% of Americans are invested in the markets. That's their retirement savings. What do you say to Americans who have real concerns that their retirement savings may be in jeopardy?
SEC. SCOTT BESSENT: I say that one week does not the market make. As Warren Buffet says, “Over the short term, the market is a voting machine. Over the long term, it's a weighing machine.” And again, Kristen, it would have been very easy for us to come in, run these reckless policies that have been happening -- happening before. We've got these large government deficits, 6.7% of GDP. We've never seen this when we're not in war time, not in recession. We are bringing those down in a responsible way. We are going to have a transition, and we are not going to have a crisis
There are no guarantees that there won’t be a recession
KRISTEN WELKER: Mr. Secretary, can you guarantee the American people here and now that there will be no recession on President Trump's watch?
SEC. SCOTT BESSENT: Well, Kristen, you -- you -- you know that there -- there are no guarantees, like, who -- who would have predicted Covid? So I -- I can predict that we are putting in robust policies that will be durable. And could there be an adjustment, because I -- I tell you, this massive government spending that we're -- we'd had that, if that had kept going, we -- we have to wean our country off of that. And on the other side, we are going to invigorate the private sector. I had a meeting with small bankers last week, and they are ready to start lending. And I can tell you that main street is going to do well.
KRISTEN WELKER: So, what exactly do you mean when you say “adjustment?” Could that potentially lead to a recession?
SEC. SCOTT BESSENT: I -- there's no reason that it has to. But, you know, I can tell you that if we kept on this track, what I couldn't -- what I could guarantee is we would have had a financial crisis. I’ve studied it, I’ve taught it, and if we had kept up at these spending levels that -- everything was unsustainable. So we are putting that -- we are resetting, and we are putting things on a sustainable path.
On “cheap goods” comment from last week: “The American dream is not contingent on cheap baubles from China”
KRISTEN WELKER: Mr. Secretary, are you there essentially saying that the Trump administration is comfortable to have consumers pay more for goods in America?
SEC. SCOTT BESSENT: Not at all, Kristen. What I'm saying is the American dream is not “let them eat flat screens.” That if American -- if American families aren't able to afford a home, don't believe that their children will do better than they are, the American dream is not contingent on cheap baubles from China, that it is more than that. And we are focused on affordability, but it's mortgages, it's cars, it's real wage gains.
KRISTEN WELKER: Do you acknowledge, though, that tariffs will ultimately drive up prices, at least in the short term? That's what economists, that's what business leaders, that's what CEOs say.
SEC. SCOTT BESSENT: Well, they don't have to because I believe, especially with the China tariffs, that Chinese manufacturers will eat that – will eat the price or eat the tariffs. I believe that the currency adjust. And I believe if we look during President Trump's first term, that all the other things we do if we're deregulating for getting energy prices down, then if we look across the spectrum, Americans will realize lower prices and better affordability.
On IRS job cuts: “We are doing a big review”
KRISTEN WELKER: Let me ask you about some of these cuts to the federal government. Obviously President Trump's been very clear. He thinks that no agency should be spared, a lot of focus on the IRS. How much of the work force do you think will be cut from the IRS?
SECRETARY SCOTT BESSENT: Well, I will tell you that there were about 15,000 probationary employees that we could have let go. We kept about 7,500, 8,500 because we viewed them as essential to the mission. And, you know, we will know once we get inside. But what I can tell you is that we are doing a big review. We're not doing anything. Right now is playoff season for us. April 15th is game day. And even employees who could take voluntary retirement, the rest of the federal work force, their date was in February. Our date for them is in May. So I have three priorities for the IRS: collections, privacy, and customer service. And we'll see what level is needed to prioritize all those.
Strikes on Houthi rebels in Yemen are “not a one-off”: “The Houthis, the Iranians should expect that this is the beginning”
KRISTEN WELKER: I do want to ask you about the breaking news overnight, the Trump administration launching large-scale military strikes against Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthis. What exactly is the message that President Trump is trying to send to Iran?
SEC. SCOTT BESSENT: So, it's a very strong message and very different than the previous administration. So the Houthis, the Iranians should expect that this is the beginning, this is not a one-off. And we are doing this because they are blocking freedom of passage for global shipping. And Kristen, back to the economy, back to inflation that closing the Suez Canal slows global commerce and increases inflationary pressure for both us and our allies. So we are sending a message: this is unacceptable. Two weeks ago, the president announced a maximum pressure strategy on Iran. Their economy is in disarray. The previous administration let their oil exports go up to about 1.5 million a day, and our target is to get it to zero.
Full interview below
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 03/16/2025 - 19:50
South African Ambassador Expelled From US After Accusing Trump Of "White Supremacy"
South African Ambassador Expelled From US After Accusing Trump Of "White Supremacy"
In what many call a clear escalation against white South Africans, the Republic passed legislation in 2024 (Expropriation Act 13) which allowed the majority black government to seize property from citizens for any reason and redistribute it according to social justice standards. In other words, the white Boer and Afrikaner farmers that produce around 70% of the country's agricultural output are subject to arbitrary imminent domain according to perceived injustices of the past.
Donald Trump, upon entry to the Oval Office, immediately addressed the issue in https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/addressing-egregious-actions-of-the-republic-of-south-africa/
that admonished the South African government under the control of the African National Congress (ANC). Ethnic violence against the Boers has been increasing exponentially, with the ANC consistently denying the trend. Trump has offered potential asylum and citizenship for the minority group while instituting funding cuts and sanctions against South Africa.
?itok=13dTQL5W
The legalization of unrestricted lad grabbing is an action that often precedes the total communist takeover of a nation, usually in the name of "wealth redistribution" and class fairness. Except, in this case, the marginalized minority group is the primary target.
SA officials attempted to mock Trump's concerns over their land grab policies, claiming that no one in the country was actually interested in escaping to the United States. This was a lie. In fact, over 10,000 white South Africans expressed an interest in immigration to the US on the very first day of Trump's executive orders. Speaking to SABC News, Neil Diamond, president of the South African Chamber of Commerce in the USA, https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/810948/over-10000-white-farmers-already-looking-to-exit-south-africa/
of skilled agricultural professionals.
The laughing (denial) phase is apparently over and SA is moving on to anger. South African Ambassador Embrahim Rasool told participants in a foreign policy seminar Friday that Donald Trump is leading a white supremacist movement in America and around the world which is "pressuring" governments in Europe to deport migrants and treat whites as a "victim group".
"What Donald Trump is launching is an assault on incumbency, those who are in power, by mobilizing a supremacism against the incumbency, at home, and — I think I’ve illustrated — abroad as well.
So in terms of that, the supremacist assault on incumbency, we see it in the domestic politics of the USA, the MAGA movement, the Make America Great Again movement, as a response not simply to a supremacist instinct, but to very clear data that shows great demographic shifts in the USA in which the voting electorate in the USA is projected to become 48% white. And that the possibility of a majority of minorities is looming on the horizon..."
It should be noted that Caucasians are already a global minority, making up only 11%-15% of the world population. It should also be noted that a considerable percentage of non-whites voted for Trump in the 2024 election, specifically because they support the deportation of illegal aliens regardless of their ethnicity. The ambassador's woke cliche claims make little sense other than to act as a distraction from the real reasons why Trump is punishing South Africa.
In response, the Trump Administration and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crmj8ky3rvno
from the US.
South Africa's Ambassador to the United States is no longer welcome in our great country.
Ebrahim Rasool is a race-baiting politician who hates America and hates https://twitter.com/POTUS?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
.
We have nothing to discuss with him and so he is considered PERSONA NON GRATA.https://t.co/mnUnwGOQdx
— Secretary Marco Rubio (@SecRubio) https://twitter.com/SecRubio/status/1900655283380146267?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
South Africa has enjoyed annual cash infusions totaling at least $6 billion in American taxpayer funds in the past ten years. That's your money spent on a host of programs and propping up a government hostile to private property rights. Now, the cash is gone and their ambassador is expelled. It is unlikely that relations between the US and SA will be normalized any time soon.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 03/16/2025 - 15:45
US Navy Announces Voluntary Separation For Transgender Sailors
US Navy Announces Voluntary Separation For Transgender Sailors
(emphasis ours),
The Department of the Navy on March 13 announced voluntary separation for sailors with a current diagnosis or history of gender dysphoria, as it will only recognize the male and female sexes, “with gender being immutable.”
?itok=Rk7QycZk
The update affects military service eligibility, and sailors “impacted by these changes may request voluntary separation,” the department said in a https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/Press-Releases/display-pressreleases/Article/4119910/department-of-the-navy-announces-new-policy-on-sailors-with-gender-dysphoria/
. The department said it will not make active efforts to identify individuals with gender dysphoria.
“Waivers for retention or accession may be considered on a case-by-case basis. Sailors eligible for voluntary separation pay will receive twice the amount of involuntary separation pay, though this is not available to those with fewer than six or more than 20 years of service,” the statement reads.
Those who opt for voluntary separation will be placed in an administrative absence status, with full pay and benefits, until their separation is complete. The Navy has committed to the “privacy and dignity” of those impacted by the policy change.
Furthermore, the Navy said that those who separate voluntarily do not need to repay education benefits or bonuses previously received.
According to an official Navy https://www.mynavyhr.navy.mil/Portals/55/Messages/ALNAV/ALN2025/ALN25023.txt?ver=sZfXfNL59oUcgEjGMmOI9g%3d%3d
released by Terence G. Emmert, acting secretary of the Navy, sailors have until March 28 to request voluntary separation.
The Navy’s decision was made according to President Donald Trump’s Executive Order https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/30/2025-02090/defending-women-from-gender-ideology-extremism-and-restoring-biological-truth-to-the-federal
, titled “Defending Women From Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government.”
The Navy document further says that a history of cross-sex hormone therapy, sex reassignment, or genital reconstruction surgery as part of gender-related treatments will be deemed disqualifying for military service applicants.
Waivers may be considered on a case-by-case basis by the secretary of the Navy.
To be eligible for the waiver, military personnel or applicants must demonstrate 36 consecutive months of stability in the individual’s sex and other important areas of functioning while meeting applicable standards associated with their sex.
Trump Cancels Biden’s Authorizations
In January 2021, after being elected as the 46th president of the United States, Joe Biden signed an https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/article/2482048/biden-administration-overturns-transgender-exclusion-policy/
overturning the prior Trump administration’s stance on transgender military members.
At the time, then-Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III said that all transgender individuals “who wish to serve in the United States military and can meet the appropriate standards shall be able to do so openly and free from discrimination.” The personnel were allowed to serve as their self-identified gender.
Biden’s policy change also ensured that all medically necessary transition-related treatments were made available to service members.
Trump’s executive https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/30/2025-02090/defending-women-from-gender-ideology-extremism-and-restoring-biological-truth-to-the-federal
, issued the same day he began his second term, ordered that women’s rights be defended and protected, along with using accurate language regarding the distinction between the two sexes. He said that henceforth, women will be recognized as biologically female and men as biologically male.
Privacy in intimate spaces shall be enforced, said the order.
“Agencies shall take all necessary steps, as permitted by law, to end the Federal funding of gender ideology,” according to the order.
On Feb. 14, the U.S. Army said on its official X social media https://x.com/USArmy/status/1890490320313286788?lang=en
: “The USArmy will no longer allow transgender individuals to join the military and will stop performing or facilitating procedures associated with gender transition for service members.
“Effective immediately, all new accessions for individuals with a history of gender dysphoria are paused, and all unscheduled, scheduled, or planned medical procedures associated with affirming or facilitating a gender transition for Service members are paused.”
On Feb. 28, the Department of Defense (DOD) issued a https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/4086111/dod-gender-dysphoria-incompatible-with-military-service-members-must-serve-in-a/
saying that service members diagnosed with gender dysphoria “will soon be processed for separation by their respective services.”
Moreover, the use of pronouns will be based on the individual’s sex. “In keeping with good order and discipline, salutations (e.g., addressing a senior officer as ‘Sir’ or ‘Ma’am’) must also reflect an individual’s sex,” according to a DOD policy https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Spotlight/2025/Guidance_For_Federal_Policies/Prioritizing_Military_Excellence_and_Readiness_P&R_Guidance.pdf
.
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Sun, 03/16/2025 - 15:10
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/us-navy-announces-voluntary-separation-transgender-sailors
Business Leaders Call For 8 Million Migrants To Replace Dead Ukrainians
Business Leaders Call For 8 Million Migrants To Replace Dead Ukrainians
,
Business leaders are calling for as many as eight million https://thenationalpulse.com/2023/12/05/denmark-is-demolishing-migrant-ghettos-as-a-last-resort-to-force-integration/
to be transplanted to Ukraine to mitigate the “demographic crisis” created by its three-year war with Russia.
The news vindicates warnings from Raheem Kassam, Editor-in-Chief of The National Pulse, that the conflict would be used as an excuse to transform the country.
?itok=hOTtcBZ_
All-Ukrainian Association of Companies for International Employment chief Vasily Voskoboinik appeared on state television in February to push for https://thenationalpulse.com/2024/02/28/its-the-border-stupid-immigration-now-americans-top-concern/
about immigration being “inevitable, desirable, and necessary”—” and the International Labour Organization, we will need 8.2 million workers.”
“We have a demographic catastrophe. Either we encourage our women to have more https://thenationalpulse.com/2024/02/29/over-85000-missing-kids-may-have-been-trafficked-under-bidens-watch/
on the public finances in other European countries.
‘THE FIRST AFRICAN NATION IN EUROPE.’
host Stephen K. Bannon, “[C]learly, the plan isn’t to keep young Ukrainian men alive to rebuild the nation after all this is done… So, who do you think they intend to import into Ukraine to rebuild the country? If I can put it so bluntly, Ukraine will be the first African nation in Europe in 10 to 15 years’ time.”
“They’ve got a base for mass migration like you’ve never seen before, and they’ve got a ‘moral imperative’ for it as well: ‘We have to rebuild! Of course! We need all these people! Bring ’em in, they’re academics and doctors and so forth,’” Kassam predicted.
Migrants would account for around 17.5 percent of the Ukrainian https://thenationalpulse.com/2024/01/17/non-white-americans-to-become-majority-by-2050/
if 8.2 million were imported.
"What's the plan for the future of Ukraine? Clearly the plan isn't to keep young Ukrainian men alive to rebuild the nation... If I can put it so bluntly, Ukraine will be first African nation in Europe in 10-15 years time. They're going to mass import..." —https://twitter.com/RaheemKassam?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— Anne Luty (@anneluty) https://twitter.com/anneluty/status/1792355155356041359?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 03/16/2025 - 09:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/corporates-call-8-million-migrants-replace-dead-ukrainians
Switzerland Is 2025's Best Country To Live & Work In
Switzerland Is 2025's Best Country To Live & Work In
Switzerland ranks 1st, driven by high earning potential, career growth, and economic mobility.
The country is also home to seven of the world’s top 250 universities.
In second, Singapore’s economy has consistently been ranked as the most open in the world.
The country also offers a progressive education system and a vibrant urban environment.
The index, https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-2025s-best-countries-to-live-and-work/
ranks the top 46 migration destinations based on six parameters - earning potential, career advancement, employment prospects, education, economic mobility, and livability—each scored out of 100.
?itok=5WrUzRLT
Data was collected between January and February 2025.
Top Migration Destinations
The https://www.henleyglobal.com/publications/henley-opportunity-index
measures how higher education, combined with investment-based residence or citizenship, helps preserve and grow wealth across generations.
?itok=uN_MmBFv
In third place, the U.S. offers the EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program, providing a streamlined path to permanent residency. Additionally, former President Trump recently proposed a “gold card” visa to attract wealthy investors by granting residency, work rights, and a pathway to citizenship in exchange for a $5 million investment.
Australia follows, boosted by its recently launched National Innovation Visa. One of the https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-countries-offering-digital-nomad-visas/
over the last decade, Canada ranks fifth. However, the country is currently reviewing its immigration policies amid concerns over the affordability crisis in cities like Vancouver and Toronto.
The UK secures sixth place with its Innovator Founder Visa, which requires individuals to establish a scalable business in the country. In seventh place, the United Arab Emirates offers the Golden Residence visa, requiring a minimum investment of $550,000.
Still curious about the best places to live? Check out this https://www.visualcapitalist.com/billionaire-migration-over-the-last-decade/
on billionaire migration over the last decade.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 03/16/2025 - 08:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/switzerland-2025s-best-country-live-work
Russia Using Bitcoin, USDT For Oil Trades With China & India; Report
Russia Using Bitcoin, USDT For Oil Trades With China & India; Report
https://cointelegraph.com/news/russia-bitcoin-oil-trade-crypto-payments
Russian companies have been using cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and USDt to facilitate trade with China and India amid international sanctions, according to a Reuters report.
?itok=Ddd03jje
Russian oil companies have used crypto assets including Bitcoin and Tether’s USDt for international trade, Reuters https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-leans-cryptocurrencies-oil-trade-sources-say-2025-03-14/
on March 14, citing four sources with direct knowledge of the matter.
One Russian oil trader reportedly conducts tens of millions of dollars worth of monthly transactions using digital assets, according to a source who spoke on condition of anonymity due to a non-disclosure agreement.
While the Russian finance minister publicly declared in late 2024 that https://cointelegraph.com/news/russia-digital-financial-assets-bitcoin-foreign-trade
in foreign trade, the use of crypto in oil transactions with China and India had not been previously reported.
Russia’s oil trade in crypto: How does it work?
According to Reuters, Russia’s foreign oil trade in crypto involves intermediaries who manage offshore accounts and facilitate transactions in the buyer’s local currency. One example includes a Chinese buyer of Russian oil that pays a trading company acting as a middleman in yuan into an offshore account.
The middleman then converts payments into crypto assets and transfers it to another account, which then sends it to a third account in Russia and converts it to Russian rubles, sources said.
Crypto will be used no matter of sanctions
According to one of Reuters’ sources, crypto will likely continue to be used in Russia’s foreign oil trading regardless of whether any sanctions are in place and even if the sanctions are lifted and Russia is free to use the dollar.
“It is a convenient tool and helps run operations faster,” the report said, citing the source.
The news comes amid the Bank of Russia officially https://cointelegraph.com/news/bank-of-russia-proposes-to-allow-limited-crypto-investments
for high-net-worth individuals who have at least $1.1 million in securities and deposits.
Bitcoin remains highly restricted in mainland China
While Russia has been increasingly open to Bitcoin, including its use in foreign trade, mainland China has maintained a cautious and restrictive approach toward cryptocurrency.
Since https://cointelegraph.com/news/chinese-regulators-unite-forces-to-crack-down-on-crypto
.
Despite the restrictions, mainland https://cointelegraph.com/news/chinese-bitcoin-miners-control-55-of-network
in Bitcoin mining, raising controversy over the application of its crypto ban.
?itok=cNVkmf0N
Source: https://x.com/KaMeek/status/1899084322738467302
As the United States moves forward with its https://cointelegraph.com/explained/trumps-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-digital-asset-stockpile-explained
in the global financial landscape.
According to data from the Bitcoin technology company Jan3, the Chinese government may be holding at least 193,000 BTC.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sat, 03/15/2025 - 15:10
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/russia-using-bitcoin-usdt-oil-trades-china-india-report
Notorious FISA / Ray Epps / J6 / Tump Judge 'Preemptively' Blocks Admin From Deporting Alleged Tren De Aragua Members
Notorious FISA / Ray Epps / J6 / Tump Judge 'Preemptively' Blocks Admin From Deporting Alleged Tren De Aragua Members
A federal judge who's been a critical ally to the deep state has preemptively blocked the Trump administration from deporting five Venezuelan nationals under the Alien Enemies Act (AEA) of 1978.
?itok=QY8rAm0d
US District Judge James Boasberg (more on that below) issued his preemptive ruling a few hours after the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) filed a motion on the Venezuelans' behalf against Trump's reported plan to invoke the AEA to accelerate the removal of illegals from the US.
The ACLU asked Boasberg to block the use of the law, though Trump has yet to invoke it. Boasberg, of course, complied, granting a restraining order Saturday morning that prevents the administration from removing the five Venezuelan nationals for two weeks so the judge can hold a hearing on their challenge.
In their filing, the ACLU, alongside Democracy Forward and the ACLU of the District of Columbia, stated that the government has moved the Venezuelans - alleged members of Tren De Aragua, to a facility in Texas, which they state are being used "as staging facilities to remove Venezuelan men under the AEA."
Of note, the Trump administration officially declared Tren de Aragua https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1892263711399633273
last month.
If the name Boasberg rings a bell, refresh your memory below...
Boasberg is the judge who was in charge of FISA when it was being used to illegally spy on Trump as part of an operation to overthrow the president. https://t.co/btXKlSfqB6
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1744814291830653314?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/they-must-be-eating-xanax-tic-tacs-blob-has-migraine
The ACLU's wish is his command!
?itok=DF_M3Ggc
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sat, 03/15/2025 - 14:35
Glorious: Broken MSNBC Host Needs Time Off Because Of 'Trump Exhaustion'
Glorious: Broken MSNBC Host Needs Time Off Because Of 'Trump Exhaustion'
MSNBC host Lawrence O’Donnell whined to his colleague Rachel Maddow that he is so exhausted from reporting on President Trump that he is taking some time off.
?itok=G4DuqQHj
Poor baby.
O’Donnell told Mr Maddow “I know you’ve pledged to cover and be here for the first hundred days of the Trump presidency. I hope you noticed that I did not make that same pledge when you did.”
He added, “This is day 52. I thought it was day 92. It turns out it’s day 52, Rachel, and I’m exhausted at day 52.”
“So I’m going to take next week off. And I’m telling you that now cause I know you don’t like it when I just drift away. I’m just taking next week off, then I can come back, and go with you all the way to the 100 days,” O’Donnell whimpered.
Mr Maddow responded, “You have to take care of yourself, you got to pace yourself” as if O’Donnell was about to run back to back marathons or something.
O’Donnell then had the temerityto claim that ” Donald Trump’s brain is broken, badly damaged, as he exhibits every day.”
Who has the broken brain here?
“Can I go with you?” Maddow added.
An "exhausted" Lawrence O'Donnell tells his colleague Rachel Maddow he's taking a week-long break from covering Trump after 50 days felt like nearly 100.
"I thought it was day 92. It turns out it's day 52, Rachel! And I'm exhausted at day 52" https://t.co/QIZ0cULl4b
— Zachary Leeman (@WritingLeeman) https://twitter.com/WritingLeeman/status/1900194007906439559?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The world’s smallest violin plays.
I'm sure every one of his 117 viewers are devastated.
— Greg Haney (@GregHaney41) https://twitter.com/GregHaney41/status/1900411776002306117?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Poor fellow. He should take a few years off.
— Greg Lewis (@colossians412) https://twitter.com/colossians412/status/1900531222788329488?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
That's the toll mental illness takes on congenital liars.
— Thomas Weil (@ThomashWeil) https://twitter.com/ThomashWeil/status/1900579398610563201?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Spinning truth and making up lies is apparently very exhausting. Take a break—permanently—no one will miss you.
— Graciemae (@christi64806660) https://twitter.com/christi64806660/status/1900558502092816578?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
If Maddow also went, no one would notice, given that a quarter of the guy’s audience has disappeared just since the election.
Rachel Maddow's rant at MSNBC bosses appears to have backfired spectacularly as 5M viewers fled the news program in a massive 22% ratings slump.
The https://twitter.com/maddow?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— johnny dollar (@johnnydollar01) https://twitter.com/johnnydollar01/status/1900354309809705327?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Is it any wonder?
* * *
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Sat, 03/15/2025 - 14:00
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/glorious-broken-msnbc-host-needs-time-because-trump-exhaustion
Mapping Europe's Coming Population Crash
Mapping Europe's Coming Population Crash
This map, https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-how-europes-population-will-change-by-2100/
shows the projected change in population levels for every European country between now and the year 2100.
?itok=f9vcv7GW
Data is sourced from the https://population.un.org/wpp/
, using their medium variant estimates.
ℹ️ The medium variant scenario means the UN thinks this is the most likely outcome, taking into account birth and death rates, and migration patterns.
Ranked: Europe’s Population Change by Country
For the last few decades Europe’s birth rates have fallen below replacement rate (which keeps population levels the same), and this will only accelerate going into the future.
As a result, most European countries will see their population fall between now and the year 2100.
Country
ISO Code
2025–2100
Population Change
% Change
🇬🇧 UK
GBR
+4.8M
+7%
🇫🇷 France
FRA
+1.8M
+3%
🇸🇪 Sweden
SWE
+710.3K
+7%
🇨🇭 Switzerland
CHE
+158.7K
+2%
🇱🇺 Luxembourg
LUX
+67.5K
+10%
🇲🇨 Monaco
MCO
+9.1K
+24%
🇱🇮 Liechtenstein
LIE
+3.5K
+9%
🇸🇲 San Marino
SMR
-2.4K
-7%
🇮🇪 Ireland
IRL
-21.9K
0%
🇦🇩 Andorra
AND
-35.7K
-43%
🇮🇸 Iceland
ISL
-35.7K
-9%
🇩🇰 Denmark
DNK
-139.3K
-2%
🇲🇹 Malta
MLT
-185.5K
-34%
🇳🇴 Norway
NOR
-209.5K
-4%
🇲🇪 Montenegro
MNE
-306.7K
-48%
🇸🇮 Slovenia
SVN
-485.0K
-23%
🇪🇪 Estonia
EST
-518.7K
-39%
🇽🇰 Kosovo
XKX
-579.4K
-35%
🇧🇪 Belgium
BEL
-697.8K
-6%
🇳🇱 Netherlands
NLD
-839.3K
-5%
🇱🇻 Latvia
LVA
-928.2K
-50%
🇲🇰 North Macedonia
MKD
-950.8K
-52%
🇫🇮 Finland
FIN
-1.0M
-18%
🇲🇩 Moldova
MDA
-1.5M
-50%
🇦🇱 Albania
ALB
-1.6M
-57%
🇱🇹 Lithuania
LTU
-1.6M
-57%
🇵🇹 Portugal
PRT
-1.7M
-16%
🇭🇷 Croatia
HRV
-1.7M
-44%
🇦🇹 Austria
AUT
-1.7M
-19%
🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina
BIH
-1.8M
-56%
🇸🇰 Slovakia
SVK
-2.1M
-37%
🇭🇺 Hungary
HUN
-2.2M
-23%
🇨🇿 Czechia
CZE
-2.4M
-22%
🇷🇸 Serbia
SRB
-3.0M
-45%
🇧🇬 Bulgaria
BGR
-3.2M
-47%
🇬🇷 Greece
GRC
-3.7M
-37%
🇧🇾 Belarus
BLR
-4.6M
-52%
🇷🇴 Romania
ROU
-8.1M
-43%
🇩🇪 Germany
DEU
-13.1M
-16%
🇪🇸 Spain
ESP
-14.8M
-31%
🇷🇺 Russia
RUS
-17.6M
-12%
🇵🇱 Poland
POL
-18.8M
-49%
🇮🇹 Italy
ITA
-23.8M
-40%
🇺🇦 Ukraine
UKR
-23.8M
-61%
🇪🇺 Europe
EUR
-152.2M
-20%
Naturally the most populous countries on the continent will see large swings, like Germany (-13.8 million), Poland (-18.8 million), and Italy (-23.8 million).
Regionally, Eastern Europe has seen declines https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-how-europes-population-has-changed-1990-2023/
, and that trend will only accelerate as this century progresses. Russia and Ukraine will together lose 40 million people by 2100.
Nevertheless, migration (both within the continent and from outside the region) can boost population levels.
For the UK (+4.8 million) and France (+1.8 million), this will lead to population growth rather than declines.
However, this is a small group. The UN projects that only seven European countries will have a larger population in 2100 than in 2025.
Important to remember that these are all estimates and can vary depending on the source. Eurostat (the official data source for the EU) has more countries https://x.com/EurCorrespond/status/1875120014723838326
than the UN, though their estimates were made in 2022.
What Does This Mean For Europe?
A population decline is not something most economies are built for. Fewer people equals shrinking consumer demand, critical to the economy.
It also means a smaller tax net, which directly funds https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-tax-revenue-vs-gdp-for-major-countries/
that Europe is famous for.
For the last few decades migration into the region (from Asia and the Middle East) has kept the population growing.
However, the booster effect from international migration is set to drop off a lot closer than most expect. Eurostat projects that 2026 will be Europe’s https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?oldid=497115
, after which levels will begin to trend down.
Need more Europe info on your radar? Check out https://www.voronoiapp.com/economy/Europe-is-Hiring-Heres-What-Theyre-Looking-For--3859
in case you’re looking to move.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sat, 03/15/2025 - 08:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/mapping-europes-coming-population-crash