Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Explains How He Found The "Stag" & The "Flation"
Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Explains How He Found The "Stag" & The "Flation"
Having met the expectations of leaving rates unchanged, and confirming their 'patience', the big question is - can Jay Powell avoid all the traps being set for him in the press conference?
Growth expectations are tumbling - so cut, right?
But Trump wants lower rates... so they can't do what he wants.
Inflation data has been wildly noisy (and expectations are soaring) - so hike rates, right?
But Dems would love The Fed to hike rates now and kill Trump's economy before we get to the 'good stuff'... so they can't do that.
?itok=3F8q_NV-
...(and will Powell shrug off the insane partisanship seen in the UMich inflation data that he once praised so highly)
?itok=E-Umd7Uj
It appears that Fed Chair Powell has found the "stag" and the "flation" after all, given the adjustments to The Fed's forecast:
?itok=Hav5zvnh
Fiscal policy uncertainty is extremely high - so cut rates to offset that tension, right?
But that would mean an implicit 'defense' of these policy moves... and Lizzy Warren will have a cow.
?itok=Y0EdIxMF
Of course, The Fed has already front-run Trump's policy prescription by shifting its dots (lower) and PCE forecast (higher) on tariff fears. The timing is right though for a Powell Put save by talking up the tapering of QT...
?itok=43n13Z0T
All the shifts in the dots are hawkish... will Powell acknowledge that?
?itok=FOx9yN0m
Watch The Fed Chair hold his press conference here live (due to start at 1430ET):
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 03/19/2025 - 14:25
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/watch-live-will-fed-chair-unleash-powell-put
The Fed's Dilemma
The Fed's Dilemma
As previewed earlier, today's Fed decision should be a relatively quiet affair, with the Fed still in wait-and-see mode (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/march-fomc-preview-markets-are-hunt-clarity
).
Meanwhile, data like that shown in the latest chart of the day from DB's Jim Reid highlights a dilemma the Fed may face in the coming months. The latest University of Michigan survey (released last Friday) revealed that consumers’ real income expectations over the next one to two years reached the lowest point in the survey’s 47-year history.
?itok=3MKjWV1a
Given that nominal income expectations have held up better, it’s clear that the perception of impending inflation is the primary cause. This is also reflected in the inflation expectation series. Currently, these inflation expectations are highly polarized by political affiliation, suggesting that at least half the electorate will ultimately be proven wrong regarding future inflation. However, the risk is that, in aggregate, these expectations will begin to influence behaviour.
Therefore, if expectations of future real incomes are at these all-time lows due to inflation expectations, cutting rates in the future to offset declining consumer confidence becomes more complex. The Fed likely hopes that a significant portion of the population will soon feel more optimistic and less concerned about inflation, which is unlikely since it has now become vogue to express one's Trump Derangement Syndrome by predicting triple if not quadruple digit inflation, when in reality the higher inflation in decades was under the administration of Biden's autopen.
One final point: as we noted earlier today on X, if Democrats truly expect 6.5% inflation in one year as they reportedly professed https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/panicking-democrats-send-umich-inflation-expectations-highest-32-years?commentId=67d43c4ab84ea4001df35864
, then they should be unleashing a historic spending spree that wipes out their savings as their purchasing power - assuming they are right in their inflation forecasts - will crater over the next 12 months, courtesy of orange man's evil inflation.
?itok=vVvjTZEW
So unless we see a massive consumption binge driven by Democrats, it is safe to say either the (very liberal) UMich survey numbers are intentionally manipulated for political reasons, or Democrats' answers are purposefully wrong and misleading, meant to influence the market and the Fed.
In any case, that surging inflation expectation would be bullshit and the Fed can and should ignore it.
In today's FOMC presser, can someone pls ask Powell if Dems (polled by UMich) see 6% inflation in 1 year, why aren't they spending all their saving right now ahead of what they reportedly see as a record loss in purchasing power?
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1902386326265360643?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 03/19/2025 - 13:55
Ukraine Quickly & Intentionally Broke Putin-Trump Deal On Energy Targets: Moscow
Ukraine Quickly & Intentionally Broke Putin-Trump Deal On Energy Targets: Moscow
During Tuesday's Trump-Putin phone call, which lasted some 90-minutes, the White House said that President Putin committed to a halt of attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure for a period of 30-days. The Kremlin readout https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/putin-demands-halt-western-military-aid-ukraine-ahead-trump-call
to acknowledge and agree to this.
Less than 24 hours later, Russia has accused Ukraine of already breaking the Trump agreement. Russia's defense ministry on Wednesday https://www.rt.com/russia/614485-ukraine-violate-ceasefire-trump/
Ukraine attack an oil transfer facility in Russia’s Krasnodar Region that services an international pipeline operation partially owned by American investors.
?itok=3EIdjnQ0
The ministry described that the overnight attack saw three kimikaze drones target the site near the village of Kavkazskaya. The site transfers crude to a pipeline operated by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), an international firm which has among its partners US giants Chevron and Mobil, Russia's RT notes.
The drone impact reportedly set fire to an oil reservoir, which has reportedly taken emergency crews a long time to extinguish. Local reports say crews are still battling the blaze.
Moscow is describing the attack as part of an intentional efforts to thwart any advancement of a peace or ceasefire agreement between Russia and the US.
"Clearly, this was a premeditated provocation by the Kiev regime aimed at derailing the US president’s peace initiative," the Russian military stated soon after.
There indeed doesn't appear to be any meaning ceasefire on at the moment, but the concession Trump was able to get from Putin marks a first of the war...
Ceasefire, what ceasefire? Russia kept pummeling Ukrainian cities overnight, hitting a hospital in Sumy among other targets. Ukraine struck a key Russian crude oil pipeline facility in northern Caucasus. Photo left — Ukrainian hospital. Video — the Kavkazskaya pumping facility. https://t.co/oZpADfPA48
— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1902247642433741130?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The Russian readout of Tuesday's Trump call included the following: "During the conversation, Trump proposed a mutual agreement between both sides to refrain from striking energy infrastructure for 30 days. Putin welcomed the initiative and immediately instructed the Russian military to comply."
However, Russia has yet to agree to refrain from other attacks, and is likely to continue hitting Ukraine hard so long as drones keep flying across the border.
Ukraine's Zelensky says he soon expects to hold a phone call with President Trump. His position has remained that nothing can be agreed to ceasefire-wise without Kiev's direct participation and input.
Below are more geopolitical developments on Wednesday, via Newsquawk:
* * *
Geopolitics: Middle East
Israeli army attacked Khan Yunis and conducted heavy shelling in the southern Gaza Strip, according to Al Jazeera.
Hamas leader said continuation of the Israeli bombardment of Gaza will lead to the death of many Israeli prisoners and the movement is communicating with mediators to force Israel to respect its commitments to the ceasefire.
US bombed targets in areas east of Hodeidah in Yemen and there were at least 10 US strikes that targeted areas in Yemen, according to Houthi media.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
Russia's Medvedev said the Putin-Trump call showed there is only Russia and the US in the 'dining room' eating a 'Kyiv-style cutlet' as a main course.
US Special Envoy Witkoff said talks with Russia on the Ukraine war will take place on Sunday in Jeddah.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia launched over 40 drones targeting civilian infrastructure and it is precisely such night attacks by Russia that destroy Ukraine’s energy and civilian infrastructure. Zelensky added the fact that Tuesday night attacks were no exception shows the need to continue pressure on Russia for the sake of peace, as well as noted that Russian President Putin de facto rejected the proposal for a complete ceasefire and it would be right for the world to reject any attempts by Putin to drag out the war in response.
UK PM Starmer spoke with Ukrainian President Zelensky on Tuesday evening and discussed progress US President Trump had made towards a ceasefire in talks with Russia, according to Downing Street.
Regional governor in Russia's Belgorod region said the situation remains difficult, a day after Russia said its forces had thwarted Ukrainian attempts to push across the border in Belgorod. It was separately reported that a drone attack sparked a fire at an oil depot in Russia's Krasnodar region, according to regional authorities.
UK Foreign Secretary said the EU and UK are to accelerate shipments of arms to Ukraine ahead of a potential full ceasefire, according to Bloomberg.
Russian Defence Ministry says Ukraine attacked Russia's energy infrastructure overnight, according to IFAX; CPC Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station stopped operating after damage, according to Tass.
Ukraine State Railways in the Dnipropetrovsk region says Russian forces have attacked its power system on Wednesday morning.
Finland President Stubb says if Russia refuses to agree, will need to increase its efforts to strengthen Ukraine and ratchet up pressure on Russia to convince it to come to the negotiating table.
Ukrainian President Zelensky says he hopes a ceasefire will eventually be implemented; says Russian President Putin's words are at "odds with reality", in relation to the halt on energy strikes. Will speak to US President Trump on Wednesday.
Geopolitics: Other
US Secretary of State Rubio warned unless Venezuela's government accepts a flow of deportation flights, the US will impose new and escalating sanctions, while Venezuela's government said sanctions are an economic war and responsible for hardships.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 03/19/2025 - 09:00
The Face Of The Tolerant Left...
The Face Of The Tolerant Left...
https://modernity.news/2025/03/18/the-face-of-the-tolerant-left
During the never ending ‘Orange man bad’ protests outside the White House, a woman stood on the podium and summed up the mindset of deranged leftism.
?itok=8oiDAlSW
It’s anyone’s guess as to what this protest is specifically against, there’s signs about ‘trans troops’ and a woman with bright red hair and a t-shirt saying “Fuck Trump” carrying a sign saying “Veterans Bow to No King.”
Whatever, it doesn’t even matter.
The woman in the footage declares that while she isn’t promoting violence for one second, because leftists would nevvvvvvver do that, if President Trump isn’t removed from office “there will be violence.”
WH protest: "Remove this president or there will be violence" https://t.co/IqihuZ4ZEI
— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1901686175800103276?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Just wow.
Ummm, this sounds a lot like calling for violence WHILE saying you’re not calling for violence.
🤔
— Gerald A (@GmorganJr) https://twitter.com/GmorganJr/status/1901708510993236357?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Not promoting violence, but there will be violence if we don’t get our deranged way.
“I’m not promoting violence, but I’m promoting violence” – wow!! She should be arrested for that. https://twitter.com/FBI?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— Jennifer Jacobson (@jen7j7) https://twitter.com/jen7j7/status/1901697172363772382?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
"We will be violent, but it is your fault for causing it" 🙄 https://t.co/pvOyAWpgFr
— Based Electrician⚡️🇺🇲 (@RyanHugeBrain) https://twitter.com/RyanHugeBrain/status/1901688224071983242?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
It perfectly encapsulates their insane outlook.
There’s already violence. The left are violent people and the Democrat Party supports them. They prove it over and over again. The president will not be removed so go ahead and show us what violence you have in mind this time.
— Proud American (@JimSTruthBTold) https://twitter.com/JimSTruthBTold/status/1901687768650272832?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
What happened to the sanctity of ‘Democracy’?
The same people who cried about "threats to democracy" are now openly calling for violence because they lost. These are not protesters, they’re sore losers throwing a tantrum. Cry harder snowflakes 😂🤣
— Unknown Ruler (@unknownruler8) https://twitter.com/unknownruler8/status/1901700345908076600?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
They are so ensconced inside their bubble world that they don’t understand their words have consequences.
This is a clear threat. This is not exercising free speech, this is inciting violence and this woman should be arrested and charged appropriately.
— Apinions Vary (@apinionsvary) https://twitter.com/apinionsvary/status/1901686607847047670?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
I’m not promoting violence but get me the manager over here right away or there will be violence.
Ok, Karen
— Vince Langman (@LangmanVince) https://twitter.com/LangmanVince/status/1901721748409647193?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
While these deranged idiots screech forever, there are a million other weirdos out there doing this sort of thing and much worse:
Face of the tolerant left. https://t.co/YiIgcTN3rr
— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) https://twitter.com/ModernityNews/status/1901949773474639951?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The face of the tolerant left. https://t.co/LAPUhiHxDa
— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) https://twitter.com/ModernityNews/status/1901949460520808496?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The face of the tolerant left.
* * *
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via https://pauljosephwatson.locals.com/support
.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 03/19/2025 - 08:40
Futures Rise With All Eyes On Fed
Futures Rise With All Eyes On Fed
US equity futures are higher into Fed day, rebounding from Tuesday's losses, with both tech and small caps outperforming, while European stocks inch higher having recovered from an earlier drop after Turkey assets and FX imploded following the latest political crackdown in the banana republic. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are 0.3% higher with all Mag7 names higher premarket led by TSLA (+3%) after the electric-vehicle maker received California’s approval to start carrying passengers. NVDA rose +1% after CEO Jensen Huang promised a clearer payoff to customers. The shares had dropped 3.4% Tuesday. China ETF KWEB is outperforming QQQ pre-mkt on Tencent earnings. Financials are also catching a bid with bond yields flat and the USD is higher for the first time in 4 sessions, boosted in part by the 10% plunge in the Turkey lira, which is spilling over across EMs. Commodities are weaker as 3 complexes are under pressure; WTI is flat reversing an earlier loss on Ukraine energy-based de-escalation. Reuters is https://www.reuters.com/world/us-suspends-some-efforts-counter-russian-sabotage-trump-moves-closer-putin-2025-03-19/
that the US is suspending some multi-agency and multi-country efforts to counter Russian sabotage, potentially to help a deal move through. Today’s pre-market rally may gain strength depending on whether the FOMC dots are modestly lowered, whether Powell’s press conference is seen as dovish and any adjustments to QT.
?itok=PivhARpC
In premarket trading, Tesla is leading gains among the Magnificent Seven stocks after the electric-vehicle maker was granted approval in California to begin carrying passengers in its vehicles in a step toward ride-hailing services (Alphabet +0.3%, Amazon +0.2%, Apple +0.3%, Microsoft +0.2%, Meta +0.1%, Nvidia +1% and Tesla +3%). Black Diamond Therapeutics (BDTX) rises 27% after the company entered into a licensing agreement with Servier, a pharmaceutical group governed by a non-profit foundation. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Cargo Therapeutics (CRGX) soars 19% after appointing Anup Radhakrishnan as interim CEO to lead the company through a reverse merger or other business combination.
General Mills (GIS) slips 3% after the packaged-food company cut its organic net sales forecast for the full year.
Gilead Sciences (GILD) drops 2% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the US Department of Health and Human Services was weighing plans to cut federal government funding for domestic HIV.
HealthEquity (HQY) drops 14% as fraud-related costs weighed on results.
Signet Jewelers (SIG) jumps 14% after the owner of Kay Jewelers said sales are recovering following a disappointing holiday season
StoneCo (STNE) climbs 10% after the Brazilian fintech posted 4Q adjusted net income that beat.
Venture Global (VG) gains 6% after Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is prepared to give the company conditional approval to export natural gas from a planned facility in Louisiana that had stalled under former President Joe Biden.
Today's main event is the FOMC decision (full https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/march-fomc-preview-markets-are-hunt-clarity
), where the Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady, while its latest dot plot should offer clues on the central bank’s thinking on the economy. Powell’s news conference will also be scrutinized for his views on the potential impact of the trade tariffs and how much support could be offered to the economy this year.
“Investors continue to search for a policy circuit breaker, either from the White House or the Fed,” said Robert Griffiths, an equity strategist at L&G Investment Management. Griffiths noted the Fed’s dovish pivot in late-2019 had come after a 30% drop in the Nasdaq, a far steeper decline than the index has suffered this year. What’s more, the full impact of the tariffs on inflation and the economy remains unclear, implying “the Fed’s ability to act pre-emptively on this occasion is extremely limited,” he added.
Meanwhile, geopolitics remains front and center and adds a fresh layer of worry, as the Gaza truce ended, Russia rejected Trump’s ceasefire proposal in Ukraine and Turkey ignited a selloff in its markets by detaining a key opposition figure. The lira plunged more than 10% to record lows and the main equity index dropped after the detention of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
Europe's Stoxx 600’s three-day winning streak stalled, with Turkey-exposed stocks such as BBVA and ING posting losses; technology and energy shares were the best performing sectors, while mining and personal care stocks are the biggest laggards. The Stoxx 600 is now up 0.1%, led by gains in consumer products, technology and energy names. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:
Softcat shares rally as much as 13% to the highest since June, after the UK IT reseller raised guidance for operating profit growth and reported first-half results that beat estimates
Cargotec gains as much as 7.5%, the most in almost five months, as Danske Bank lifts its rating on the Helsinki-listed cargo-handling equipment maker to buy from hold
Bridgepoint shares rise as much as 5.6% after being upgraded to buy by analysts at Citi, who argue the risk-reward profile looks attractive following the stock’s recent underperformance
M&G shares rise as much as 4.5%, hitting their highest level in almost a year, after the investment manager’s results for 2024 came in better than expected, according to Jefferies
Saab drops as much as 7.2%, slipping from yesterday’s record closing high, as Danske Bank double-downgrades to sell and says valuation is “perhaps not attractive enough” to reflect potential headwinds
Compass Group shares fall as much as 6.1%, hitting the lowest level since Oct. 15, after BNP Paribas Exane downgraded the stock to underperform from outperform
Raysearch falls as much as 13%, the most since Aug. 29 2022, after the Swedish medical technology firm’s CEO Johan Lof sold some of his Class B shares in the company at a 10.1% discount vs. Tuesday’s close
Pan African Resources shares fall as much as 6.8% in London, after Tembo Capital Mining Fund sold its entire stake at a discount to the last close
Ferrexpo falls as much as 15% in London, the most since Feb. 20, after the miner reported revenue for the 2024 full year that missed the average analyst estimate
Steyr Motors drop 61% in Frankfurt, paring 1170% rally over previous 12 days, after majority owner Mutares said it plans to sell further shares in the company
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were mixed as traders await more clues on the economic outlook from the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later Wednesday. Indonesian stocks bounced back from Tuesday’s steep selloff. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased earlier gains of as much as 0.4% to trade little changed. While the US central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady, officials may offer more clarity amid President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and fears of a US recession. Chinese benchmarks were mixed as uncertainties lingered over Beijing’s policy-direction in boosting consumer spending and stoking local demand. In a note Monday, Bank of America strategists warned of a “meaningful correction” for China’s stock rally, given its similarities with the 2015 boom-and-bust cycle. Meanwhile, Japanese shares gained after the central bank held rates steady as expected. South Korea’s stock benchmark also climbed, ahead of an imminent verdict in the impeachment of Yoon Suk-Yeol.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbs 0.3%. The Swedish krona is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.7% against the greenback. The euro retreated from five-month highs, after gains sparked by Germany’s plan for hundreds of billions of euros in debt financing. Lawmakers green-lit the package in Berlin on Tuesday. The yen is down 0.3% after the Bank of Japan kept its benchmark rate unchanged and cited worries over the potential impact from US tariff policies. The Turkish lira fell by more than 12% to a fresh record low after the detention of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s most prominent rival stoked concern that recent investor-friendly economic policies may be rolled back. It has since trimmed some losses.
In rates, treasuries dip, pushing the 10 Year Treasury yield 1bp higher to 4.29%, marginally cheaper on the day, trailing German counterparts by 3bp; US curve spreads are likewise little changed in muted trading conditions ahead of Fed decision. Bunds pared an earlier rally, although German 10-year borrowing costs are still down 3 bps at 2.78%. Traders have been piling into hawkish hedges that anticipate the central bank remaining on hold through June; Fed-dated OIS contracts currently price in around 58bp of easing by year-end with the first move fully priced by the July policy meeting
In commodities, oil prices are unchanged, reversing an earlier loss after Russian President Vladimir Putin declined Donald Trump’s bid for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, agreeing instead to limit attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure. WTI is flat at $66.75 a barrel. Spot gold is steady around $3,036/oz having hit another record high earlier today. Bitcoin rises 2% to around $83,700.
On today's calendar, besides the all important FOMC decision, it's quiet: we get MBA mortgage applications (which dropped 6.2% after jumping 11.2% last week) and the January TIC flows at 4pm.
Market snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 5,627.50
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 553.60
MXAP little changed at 189.77
MXAPJ down 0.2% to 594.00
Nikkei down 0.2% to 37,751.88
Topix up 0.4% to 2,795.96
Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 24,771.14
Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,426.43
Sensex up 0.3% to 75,491.07
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 7,828.25
Kospi up 0.6% to 2,628.62
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.78%
Euro down 0.3% to $1.0908
Brent Futures down 0.7% to $70.10/bbl
Gold spot down 0.1% to $3,032.05
US Dollar Index up 0.28% to 103.53
Top Overnight News
The Fed’s quarterly dot plot due today may look hawkish, with Bloomberg Intelligence calling it a coin flip whether the median will show one or two 25-bp cuts this year. Traders are pricing in at least three. The central bank is expected to keep the key rate unchanged. BBG
WSJ's Timiraos wrote central banks can lower rates because of good or bad news and the window for ‘good’ cuts is closing due to new inflation risks, while he noted that most officials are expected to pencil in one or two rate cuts this year but projections are likely to obscure how the Fed’s wait-and-see holding pattern has undergone an important reset because of the threat of an expansive trade war that sends up prices.
Tesla (TSLA +3.6% in premarket) receives the first approvals in California needed to run a fleet of robotaxis in the state. RTRS
A federal judge ruled that Elon Musk probably exercised unconstitutional power in orchestrating DOGE’s efforts to shutter USAID. The White House said it will appeal. BBG
US crude inventories rose by 4.59 million barrels last week, API data is said to show. That would take total holdings to the highest since July if confirmed by the EIA. Trump will meet with oil industry execs later today. BBG
Volodymyr Zelenskiy will have a phone call with Donald Trump today, he said. Earlier, US officials told European counterparts they’ll need to be involved in negotiations given its sanctions on Russia, people familiar said. BBG
The lira sank after Istanbul’s mayor was detained at his home this morning. Ekrem Imamoglu is widely seen as Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s main rival and a top contender for the presidency. Turkish lenders were said to have sold about $8 billion to support the currency. BBG
Chinese banks are slashing rates on consumer loans to record lows as policymakers ramp up stimulus to stabilize growth and counter US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Lenders across the wealthier areas of Shanghai, the nation’s financial capital, and Hangzhou, a key tech hub, are engaged in a price war, offering annual interest rates as low as 2.58% on loans to fuel restaurant visits and shopping, according to online ads. That compares to rates as high as 10% about two years ago. BBG
Euro-area inflation was revised down in February, strengthening calls for the ECB to continue cutting rates. CPI rose 2.3%, less than the 2.4% Eurostat first flagged. BBG
Indonesia’s securities regulator eased share buyback rules after this week’s stock rout. The benchmark equity index closed higher for the first time in five sessions. The central bank held its key rate at 5.75%, as expected, and said it sees one cut this year. BBG
The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady on Wednesday and warned of heightening global economic uncertainty, suggesting the timing of further rate hikes will depend largely on the fallout from potentially higher U.S. tariffs. But Governor Kazuo Ueda also said rising food costs and stronger-than-expected wage growth could push up underlying inflation, highlighting the central bank's attention to mounting domestic price pressures. RTRS
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed as the region lacked firm conviction following the negative handover from Wall St and as participants braced for central bank announcements including the BoJ decision which lacked any major fireworks. ASX 200 was subdued for most of the session and finished lower in the absence of any fresh bullish catalysts. Nikkei 225 initially benefitted from recent currency weakness which helped the index shrug off disappointing machinery orders and weaker-than-expected trade data to briefly reclaim the 38,000 level. However, the index then gradually pared its gains following the lack of surprises from the BoJ's unsurprising decision to maintain rates at 0.50%, Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy with participants cautious as they digested recent earnings releases and with tech stocks contained heading into Tencent's results due later today.
BOJ
Policy Announcement: maintained its short-term interest rate target at 0.5%, as expected with the decision made by unanimous vote. BoJ said Japan's economy is recovering moderately, albeit with some weak signs, while consumption is increasing moderately as a trend and inflation expectations are also heightening moderately. BoJ stated they must be vigilant to the impact of financial and FX market moves on Japan's economy but added that Japan's economy is likely to continue growing above potential. Furthermore, it expects underlying inflation to converge towards a level consistent with the price target in the latter half of the three-year period projected under the Outlook Report but noted uncertainty surrounding Japan's economy and prices remains high.
Ueda: will adjust the degree of easing if its economic and price outlook is realised; not pessimistic about Q1 GDP growth compared to its recent forecast. Still the BoJ's view that the neutral rate has a wide range, BoJ has still not narrowed-down what the neutral rate is. The BoJ will respond 'nimbly' if there are abnormal long-term yield moves; adds that we are not in such a situation now. This Shunto result is largely in line with its view from January, wage trends are 'on track', or slightly stronger. There was a view at today's meeting that there was upward pressure on inflation. Will not raise interest rates when the economy is in bad shape.
Top Asian News
Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) (CNY) Q4 adj. net of 55.3bln (exp. 53.3bln), revenue 172.5bln (exp. 168.7bln); to raise dividend and buyback
European bourses kicked off the session on the backfoot amid a bout of general risk pressure following the European cash open with a few factors potentially influencing though there was not one clear driver; Stoxx 600 -0.1%. Sectors are mostly negative with Basic Resources lagging on pressure in Rio Tinto (-0.9%) after it pushed back on calls for a unified listing in Australia. Stateside, futures are firmer across the board but only modestly so; ES +0.3%, NQ +0.3%. Early doors, the benchmarks were knocked as part of a broader risk move with numerous factors potentially exerting influence; namely, Putin-Trump digestion and potential breach of the energy ceasefire, Ueda’s hawkish language, Turkish turmoil and ongoing tariff uncertainty. More broadly, focus remains on the Fed. NVIDIA's (+1%) GTC saw a flurry of partnership announcements, Apple's (+0.2%) Siri AI may miss Spring launch target, Oracle (+0.4%) mulls a stake in TikTok US, JPMorgan (+0.2%) hikes its dividend, Morgan Stanley (-0.1%) to cut jobs, Citi (+0.4%) lowers bonuses.
Top European News
UK Chancellor Reeves is planning a new multi-billion pound public spending squeeze in next week's Spring Statement, following an announcement on Tuesday of GBP 5bln in welfare cuts, according to FT.
Irish Central Bank warned of significant impact from higher tariffs and cannot rule out a recession, while it lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 4.0% from 4.2% and 2026 forecast to 4.0% from 4.5%.
TRY and Turkish equities pressured after the detention of Imamoglue. Borsa Istanbul temporarily halted trading.
Head of France's BNIC Cognac lobby says French Foreign Minister plans to visit China at the end of March.
FX
USD is firmer vs. peers as we count down to the FOMC. Focus for the meeting is on the dot plot, Powell/statement commentary on tariffs and the US economy in addition to anything on QT. DXY at the upper-end of a 103.25-103.71 band.
EUR/USD lower early doors, hit by EUR/JPY action during the Ueda presser. Down to a 1.0874 base at worst. Specifics for the bloc a little light after the Bundestag vote and ahead of the Bundesrat on Friday.
JPY choppy but ultimately softer in wake of the BoJ where rates were kept on hold, as expected. The subsequent presser sparked some JPY strength as Ueda turned slightly more hawkish throughout it and as the risk tone deteriorated. USD/JPY currently firmer but off best in a 149.15-150.15 band.
Sterling on the backfoot given JPY action with general USD strength also factoring. Pressure which comes despite favourable EUR/GBP movement. For the UK, specifics are light as we count down to the BoE on Thursday. Cable finds itself at the lower-end of a 1.2958-1.3004 band and pulling back from Tuesday's 1.3010 YTD peak.
TRY hit by the arrest of the likely main opposition candidate to Erdogan, with USD/TRY hitting a record 41.0132 peak after this.
Antipodeans are both extending on the downside seen yesterday with the latest leg lower coinciding with selling in European equity futures ahead of the cash open. From a fundamental perspective, little reaction was seen from the relatively stable Australian Leading Index and softer-than-expected New Zealand Current Account data.
Fixed Income
Benchmarks bid early doors as the risk tone deteriorated with, as discussed elsewhere, no one factor behind this. Since, as sentiment recovers, benchmarks are off best with USTs just into the red, Gilts near-unchanged and Bunds around 30 ticks off best.
JGBs came under pressure into and after the BoJ itself. Thereafter, Ueda’s press conference began with him sitting on the fence and as such JGBs got back to their 138.25 peak before pulling back sharply to a 138.07 base, where it remains, as Ueda turned slightly more hawkish.
USTs hit a 110-27 peak on the deterioration in the risk tone, stalling just before the proceeding sessions’ 110-29 and 110-30 respective highs. Specifics a touch light this morning as we digest the readout from Putin-Trump and count down to the FOMC; USTs back toward 110-20+ lows most recently.
Bunds are firmer but also off best as the general fixed income rally seen in the European morning takes a slight breather and with Bunds specifically also acknowledging dual tranche supply.
Gilts find themselves back to trading between USTs and Bunds after leading the action for a change on Tuesday. Focus for today, aside from the above macro points, is on PMQs where details will be sought on the disability reform Labour announced and whether the cost savings from this go far enough to restore headroom.
Commodities
Crude futures remain under pressure after Tuesday’s constructive geopolitical developments, with both WTI and Brent trading at weekly lows of USD 66.21/bbl and USD 69.90/bbl respectively.
Trump-Putin talks were described as productive, with the leaders agreeing on a temporary halt to energy infrastructure strikes and immediate talks on a complete ceasefire. However, it does appear that this agreement may have already been breached by Russia, with attacks reported on power supplies in the Dnipropetrovsk region this morning. Most recently, IFX citing Russia’s Defence Ministry reports that Ukraine attacked Russian infrastructure overnight.
Dutch TTF is firmer, supported by the lack of a full ceasefire in Ukraine, along with reports of Russian and Ukrainian breaches of this energy agreement, as mentioned in the crude section.
Spot gold has given back some of the gains from Tuesday, with the yellow metal still comfortably clear of the USD 3k/oz mark, but shy of the USD 3045/oz ATH which printed after the Putin-Trump call.
Base metals are, broadly speaking, little changed with the risk tone tentative as we count down to the FOMC and updates on the multiple other in-focus macro drivers.
US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +4.6mln (exp. +0.9mln), Distillate -2.1mln (exp. -0.3mln), Gasoline -1.7mln (exp. -2.4mln), Cushing -1.1mln.
Geopolitics: Middle East
Israeli army attacked Khan Yunis and conducted heavy shelling in the southern Gaza Strip, according to Al Jazeera.
Hamas leader said continuation of the Israeli bombardment of Gaza will lead to the death of many Israeli prisoners and the movement is communicating with mediators to force Israel to respect its commitments to the ceasefire.
US bombed targets in areas east of Hodeidah in Yemen and there were at least 10 US strikes that targeted areas in Yemen, according to Houthi media.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
Russia's Medvedev said the Putin-Trump call showed there is only Russia and the US in the 'dining room' eating a 'Kyiv-style cutlet' as a main course.
US Special Envoy Witkoff said talks with Russia on the Ukraine war will take place on Sunday in Jeddah.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia launched over 40 drones targeting civilian infrastructure and it is precisely such night attacks by Russia that destroy Ukraine’s energy and civilian infrastructure. Zelensky added the fact that Tuesday night attacks were no exception shows the need to continue pressure on Russia for the sake of peace, as well as noted that Russian President Putin de facto rejected the proposal for a complete ceasefire and it would be right for the world to reject any attempts by Putin to drag out the war in response.
UK PM Starmer spoke with Ukrainian President Zelensky on Tuesday evening and discussed progress US President Trump had made towards a ceasefire in talks with Russia, according to Downing Street.
Regional governor in Russia's Belgorod region said the situation remains difficult, a day after Russia said its forces had thwarted Ukrainian attempts to push across the border in Belgorod. It was separately reported that a drone attack sparked a fire at an oil depot in Russia's Krasnodar region, according to regional authorities.
UK Foreign Secretary said the EU and UK are to accelerate shipments of arms to Ukraine ahead of a potential full ceasefire, according to Bloomberg.
Russian Defence Ministry says Ukraine attacked Russia's energy infrastructure overnight, according to IFAX; CPC Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station stopped operating after damage, according to Tass.
Ukraine State Railways in the Dnipropetrovsk region says Russian forces have attacked its power system on Wednesday morning.
Finland President Stubb says if Russia refuses to agree, will need to increase its efforts to strengthen Ukraine and ratchet up pressure on Russia to convince it to come to the negotiating table.
Ukrainian President Zelensky says he hopes a ceasefire will eventually be implemented; says Russian President Putin's words are at "odds with reality", in relation to the halt on energy strikes. Will speak to US President Trump on Wednesday.
Geopolitics: Other
US Secretary of State Rubio warned unless Venezuela's government accepts a flow of deportation flights, the US will impose new and escalating sanctions, while Venezuela's government said sanctions are an economic war and responsible for hardships.
US Event Calendar
07:00: March MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 11.2%
14:00: March FOMC Decision
16:00: Jan. Total Net TIC Flows
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Welcome to FOMC decision day which we'll preview later. Ahead of that, the air continues to deflate from the tech balloon (or bubble depending on your view) with the interesting question being whether this would have happened without the tumultuous trade headlines of the last month. The market is understandably fixated with how negative the trade headlines have been for US equities but the reality is that in February when the S&P 500 was only down -1.42%, the Mag-7 were down -8.77%. So don’t underestimate the tech sell-off as being the primary reason for US equity weakness of late.
This sell-off continued yesterday with the Mag-7 down -2.47% to the lowest levels since September, dragging the S&P down -1.07%. Tesla (-5.34%) and Nvidia (-3.43%) again lagged, while Meta (-3.73%) became the last of the Mag-7 to fall into the negative territory YTD. The rest of the Mag-7 are down by between -9% and -44% YTD. Overall the Mag-7 is down -16.19% so far this year, with the S&P 500 -4.54%. Interestingly the equal weight S&P 500 (-1.00% YTD) is only slightly lower, so outside of the Mag-7 it's just a small sell-off so far. So when we think about the US market falls this year I would say sentiment changes towards the Mag-7 are a bigger impact domestically than the trade headlines even if both matter.
Over the other side of the pond your crystal ball would probably have been launched in the bin had you predicted that the DAX (+17.44% YTD) would be up as much at this stage of the year in absolute terms and especially versus the Mag-7 and the overall US market. However the news out of Germany continues to be positive with the CDU/SPD/Greens yesterday achieving the two-thirds majority needed for the debt brake reform containing the huge potential defence spending boost, and the €500bn infrastructure fund. So it was another day of European out-performance with the DAX (+0.98%) and the STOXX 600 (+0.61%) strong but with the IBEX (+1.58%) and FTSE-MIB (+1.31%) even stronger showing the halo impact of German spending. European bond yields largely held steady, with 10yr bund yields -0.8bps lower, but with the Euro (+0.21%) edging higher and to a fresh five-month high of 1.0945.
Incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s next test will be Friday’s vote in the Bundesrat – the second chamber comprising the 16 state governments – at 8:30AM GMT. As we said on Monday, the hurdle for the constitutional amendments to pass the Bundesrat is lower than it was in the Bundestag, especially as Bavaria has confirmed that it will support the package. So the execution risk is declining still further from already low levels.
Back to the US, and today brings the Federal Reserve’s second policy decision of 2025 and their latest Summary of Economic Projections. For the headline decision, we expect the Fed to hold rates steady and, given heightened uncertainty, provide limited guidance about the policy path ahead. And in a closer call, our US economists expect the Fed to announce a pause in QT beginning in April, coupled with forward guidance indicating that QT should resume once the debt ceiling is resolved. For details, see their Fed preview here. Although this is unlikely to be an exciting meeting, plenty has happened since the last meeting so the press conference could see a whole host of challenging questions for Powell. We suspect they will mostly be answered with a straight, non-commital bat, but will make for interesting viewing.
Ahead of that, the latest slew of US data yesterday leaned a little hawkish. Industrial production accelerated to +0.7%m/m (+0.2% expected) from +0.3%m/m in January, and manufacturing production rose +0.9%m/m (+0.3% expected). US housing starts increased +11% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.50mn units in February (+1.4% expected), though building permits were more in-line and tend to be more indicative of the underlying trends with starts often weather influenced. Meanwhile, monthly import prices came hotter at +0.4% m/m (vs. 0.0% expected), which included a sizeable jump in imported international airfares (+0.9%) that should add a little upside to next week’s core PCE print.
With all that data, market expectations of Fed rate cuts edged lower, with the amount of easing priced in by the December meeting (-1.2bps to 59bps) falling to its lowest level in three weeks. At the longer end of the rates curve, 10yr Treasury yields swung around but ultimately fell amid the risk off tone with 10yr yields down -1.5bps to 4.29%. The modest rally in Treasuries was also helped by a solid 20yr auction that saw $13bn of bonds issued at 4.63%, -1.4bps below the pre-sale yield. This morning in Asia 10yr USTs have edged back up a basis point.
In geopolitical news, the anticipated Trump-Putin call delivered only one element of definitive progress, with Moscow agreeing “to mutually refrain from attacks on energy infrastructure facilities for 30 days”. While both US and Russian readouts struck a constructive tone, Putin declined the US proposal for an unconditional ceasefire that Ukraine had agreed to, with the Kremlin emphasising that a “key condition” for working towards resolution of the conflict was “the complete cessation of foreign military aid and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv”. Later in the day, Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy said that the Trump-Putin call showed Russia wasn’t ready for a truce.
The signal of a pause in strikes against energy targets did help Brent crude close -0.72% lower on the day at $70.56/bbl. It had earlier been +1.5% higher intra-day after Israel said it would continue to strike Hamas targets across Gaza but had already reversed this gain by the time headlines from the Trump-Putin call came through. Lastly, Gold continued to set new record highs, rising +1.14% to $3,035/oz amidst Middle East tensions escalating once more.
Asian equity markets are fairly quiet this morning with the KOSPI (+0.70%) leading with the Nikkei (+0.06%) fairly flat after the BoJ left policy unchanged at their meeting. The press conference will start just around the time this hits your inboxes. Chinese markets are all broadly flat but S&P 500 (+0.19%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.29%) futures are edging back up.
In the statement accompanying the BoJ decision, they cited concerns about the impact of US trade policies on Japan's economic recovery, noting continued uncertainty around economic activity and prices. The Yen and JGBs are relatively unmoved so far.
In terms of data, Japanese exports climbed +11.4% y/y in February (v/s +12.6% expected) up for a fifth straight month driven by strong demand from both the US and China. It followed a revised increase of +7.3% in January. Imports fell -0.7% y/y in February, marking its first drop in three months and compared with the Bloomberg estimate of a +0.8% gain. As such, Japan’s trade balance switched back into the black, with a surplus of ¥584.5 billion (v/s ¥688.3 billion expected).
To the day ahead, aside from the Fed decision, the EU commission will be presenting its White Paper on defense today, with EU leaders expected to discuss their ReArm EU plan on Thursday and Friday. We’ll also get data on Eurozone Q4 labour costs. For earnings releases, expect Tencent, Vonovia, Ping An Insurance and General Mills.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 03/19/2025 - 08:27
https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/futures-rise-all-eyes-fed
Trump Admin Considering Banning Travel From Dozens Of Countries: Memo
Trump Admin Considering Banning Travel From Dozens Of Countries: Memo
(emphasis ours),
President Donald Trump’s administration has been weighing a travel ban on citizens from dozens of countries, according to an internal memorandum.
?itok=czXCH28T
The memo, which was viewed by Reuters, lists 41 countries, divided into three groups.
One group, which includes Afghanistan, Iran, Syria, Cuba, and North Korea, would be set for a full visa suspension.
The five countries in the second group—Eritrea, Haiti, Laos, Myanmar, and South Sudan—would face partial suspensions that would impact tourist and student visas as well as other immigrant visas, with some exceptions.
The third group of 26 countries, including Belarus and Pakistan, would be considered for a partial suspension of U.S. visa issuance if their governments “do not make efforts to address deficiencies within 60 days,” the memo said.
A White House official did not deny that the new travel restrictions are being considered. The official told The Epoch Times in an email that no decision has been made yet.
The State Department did not respond to a request for comment by publication time.
In his first term, Trump https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/new-us-travel-ban-on-8-countries-is-indefinite-and-tailored-2319323
travel restrictions on citizens of eight countries due to security concerns.
Under the Immigration and Nationality Act, a president can “suspend the entry of all aliens or any class of aliens” whenever he “finds that the entry of any aliens or of any class of aliens into the United States would be detrimental to the interests of the United States.”
Hawaii officials sued over the restrictions, arguing they went beyond those allowed by the act.
Courts blocked the order before the U.S. Supreme Court in 2018 https://www.theepochtimes.com/article/supreme-court-upholds-trumps-travel-ban-2-2575287
that the president was able to limit admissions from the countries.
“By its plain language, [the act] grants the President broad discretion to suspend the entry of aliens into the United States,” Justice John Roberts wrote at the time. “The President lawfully exercised that discretion based on his findings—following a worldwide, multi-agency review—that entry of the covered aliens would be detrimental to the national interest.”
After being sworn in on Jan. 20, Trump directed the attorney general and other top officials to identify countries around the world “for which vetting and screening information is so deficient as to warrant a partial or full suspension on the admission of nationals from those countries” pursuant to the act.
While campaigning for the 2024 election, Trump floated a travel ban on citizens from several countries, including Libya and Somalia, as well as “anywhere else that threatens our security.”
Reuters contributed to this report.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 03/19/2025 - 08:05
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-admin-considering-banning-travel-dozens-countries-memo
Will They Ever Learn? Democrats Are Losing Popularity For A Good Reason
Will They Ever Learn? Democrats Are Losing Popularity For A Good Reason
Democrats have hit all time low approval ratings in a pair of polls on Sunday, coming after three months of incessant obstructions against the Trump Administration and attempts to insight civil unrest among leftist activists.
found 27% of registered voters say they view the party favorably − the lowest favorability rating for Democrats in NBC polls going back to 1990. Only 7% of survey respondents said they said they have a "very positive" view of the party.
Another poll https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/25563079/cnn-poll-political-parties.pdf
similarly found 29% of voters view Democrats in a positive light, the lowest in CNN's polling since 1992. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 63% said they have a favorable view of the party.
?itok=HrNur3yd
In the wake of their embarrassing election beat down in 2024 when they lost the House, the Senate and the Oval Office, Democrats have been scrambling to find new leadership. They have not, however, tried to find a new identity, and this is likely a big reason why they continue to plummet in popularity with average Americans.
Playing the role of woke vigilantes fighting for DEI and transgender propaganda in public schools caused a large number of independents and moderates to run from the Democrats like the plague in 2024, but as usual they have chosen to double down instead of engaging in self reflection. The party's image as "champion of the marginalized" has spiraled out of control, with many Dem officials trying to justify every abhorrent behavior from widespread destruction of private property to stopping the deportation of terrorists.
Democrats claim that the reason for their precipitous drop in approval is that they "just aren't fighting Donald Trump hard enough..."
Democrat Sen. Chris Murphy is spot on here: The American people want us to fight Donald Trump harder — because if we don’t, we’ll lose our Democracy. https://t.co/zBhyeBet8z
— Sarah Jane Winfoot 🇭🇹 (@SJWinfoot) https://twitter.com/SJWinfoot/status/1901431279511363857?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
In other words, they argue that they need to do more of the same while ignoring the fact that a majority of US voters chose Trump specifically to institute government audits, cut waste, secure the borders and deport illegal aliens. Democrats are attacking Trump for keeping his campaign promises.
This is another classic case of leftists claiming they love "democracy" while treating the American public as if they're stupid. Progressives think they know what's best for everyone and they will never concede that they might be wrong. This is the real reason why they're unpopular.
?itok=TdGVlLYY
Meanwhile, the latest polls also show Donald Trump's approval https://nypost.com/2025/03/16/us-news/trump-hits-highest-approval-hes-ever-had/?utm_campaign=nypost&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
in large part due to his border policies and government cuts. Though, the survey also shows Americans want the President to do more on the economy. To be fair to Trump, three months is not a lot of time to fix four years of record stagflation, and the fix (deflation) is sure to cause a lot of public uncertainty as well.
The 2024 election was not a tight and contested race; it wasn't even close. The people have spoken and they resoundingly rejected far-left ideology. Democrats have chosen a path of provocation, disruption and sabotage instead of making peace and accepting their losses with dignity. This kind of blind zealotry isn't going to win them any elections anytime soon, but it might just cause extreme division and violence. Perhaps that's all they want.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 03/19/2025 - 07:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/will-they-ever-learn-democrat-party-popularity-hits-record-lows
Goldman Slashes US Immigration Forecast As 'America First' Agenda Takes Hold
Goldman Slashes US Immigration Forecast As 'America First' Agenda Takes Hold
Vice President JD Vance spoke earlier to companies working "in the national interest" at the American Dynamism Summit, sponsored by venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz. In his address, he highlighted the significant progress achieved in just two months under a competent administration in securing the southern border and strengthening national security—following the previous administration's globalist policies that sparked an illegal alien invasion crisis.
"Last month, migrant crossings were down 94%, to their lowest number all time, and that happened just in two months of serious border enforcement... Last month, for the first time in over a year, the majority of job gains went to American citizens born on US soil," VP Vance told the crowd at the summit in Washington, DC, earlier this morning.
.https://twitter.com/VP?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) https://twitter.com/RapidResponse47/status/1901994037982220342?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Providing more context on VP Vance's immigration figures, analysts from Goldman, including Jan Hatzius, Alec Phillips, and others, stated that US immigration policy has tightened significantly over the past two months, reducing the annualized inflow of humanitarian and other non-visa immigrants from 1.4 million to 200k. They noted that while deportation levels remained stable, total net immigration fell from 1.7 million in December to 700k in February.
Given the faster-than-expected decline in immigration, the analyst expects net inflows to reach 500k by the end of the year, down from a previous estimate of 750k. The contribution of immigration to labor force growth is also expected to slide and provide more job opportunities for Americans.
Further color from analysts...
How Much Has Immigration Fallen Since the Inauguration?
Immigration policy in the US tightened considerably in the first two months of 2025. We estimate that this resulted in a decline in annualized inflows of humanitarian and other immigrants (asylum seekers, parolees, people receiving temporary protected status, and illegal entrants; this includes all immigrants other than visa and green card recipients) to an annualized 0.2mn in February, down from 1.4mn in December 2024 (left, Exhibit 1).
While official statistics from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) show a moderate increase in arrests of unauthorized immigrants since early January, the increase has not led to a notable change in the number of deportations. The right side of Exhibit 1 shows that total immigrant outflows due to deportations remained in line with past trends. The number of outflows due to voluntary and other enforcement returns—which tend to be proportional to immigration inflows—declined over the past two months as inflows moderated.
?itok=-FyMaB-N
Even though the number of deportations did not increase meaningfully, the sharp decline in immigration inflows still brought net immigration into the US down to an annualized pace of 0.7mn in February, from 1.7mn in December 2024 (Exhibit 2).
?itok=-yei465H
In our prior report, we highlighted the risk that the immigration crackdown might not only reduce inflows of new immigrants but might also make unauthorized immigrants already in the US afraid to go to work or make their employers afraid to employ them. So far, the labor market data that we use to monitor this risk have shown mixed evidence.
The individual-level micro data behind the household survey of the employment report indicate that recent immigrants' labor force participation rates remained roughly unchanged (left, Exhibit 3) and their unemployment rates declined slightly (right, Exhibit 3), and that the job-finding rates of all immigrants rebounded on a 3-month basis (Exhibit 4). Taken at face value, this suggests that the immigration crackdown has not yet adversely affected labor market conditions for recent immigrants.
?itok=8q7lZi8o
?itok=D1okmBW4
However, the household survey data might miss some of the negative labor market consequences of the immigration crackdown because immigrants who are most likely to have been negatively affected might also have been afraid to respond to the survey.
Indeed, we find that the number of immigrant respondents to the household survey—particularly those who arrived over the past three years—declined moderately over the last two months (Exhibit 5).
?itok=3SGhKHVO
Given these changes, we are lowering our immigration forecast for the end of 2025 to 500k from our previous baseline of 750k (dashed line in Exhibit 2), though we see considerable uncertainty around the estimate, as the number of deportations depends not only on the policy in place but also on the actual enforcement intensity.
Seperatly, jobs data showed President Trump's 'America First' agenda was beginning to take shape:
Native-Born workers increased by 284K to 130.1 million
Foreign-born workers dropped by 84K to 31.7 million https://t.co/EQB042u8NT
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1898011013502341316?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
This is good news for American workers, circling back to the Goldman note:
?itok=c4N0U6nl
Trump is opening up the spigot of jobs for the American workers as the migration inbound trends slow and outbound trends persist... This is America First.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 03/19/2025 - 06:55
AG Bondi Declares "Swarm Of Violent Attacks" On Tesla As Domestic Terrorism
AG Bondi Declares "Swarm Of Violent Attacks" On Tesla As Domestic Terrorism
Update:
US Attorney General Pam Bondi released a https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/attorney-general-bondi-statement-violent-attacks-against-tesla-property
overnight, calling the "violent attacks" on Tesla showrooms, service centers, Supercharger networks, and vehicles "nothing short of domestic terrorism."
"The swarm of violent attacks on Tesla property is nothing short of domestic terrorism. The Department of Justice has already charged several perpetrators with that in mind, including in cases that involve charges with five-year mandatory minimum sentences," Bondi stated in a press release.
She continued: "We will continue investigations that impose severe consequences on those involved in these attacks, including those operating behind the scenes to coordinate and fund these crimes."
The latest domestic terrorism attack on Tesla occurred at a service center in Las Vegas early Tuesday morning. Below, we provide readers with dramatic footage (previous post), along with images of the crime scene—featuring one key indication suggesting far-left groups were behind the arson attack.
?itok=_xYEAY_T
The very fact that the Democrats and their leftist groups are attacking an American company because they are displeased with Elon Musk's DOGE effort to reform the bloated and corrupt federal government—captured by unelected Deep Staters—shows that the so-called party of 'love' is in a massive crisis. Cornered and desperate, Democrats have now resorted to violence.
Those are terrible optics, Democrats. Terrible optics.
Violence is never the answer, yet here we are...
DEVELOPING: Video provided to the Review-Journal shows several https://twitter.com/Tesla?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
vehicles engulfed in flames after Las Vegas police say they were set on fire by an individual early Tuesday morning.
UPDATES→ https://t.co/sZQr9j1E5A
— Las Vegas Review-Journal (@reviewjournal) https://twitter.com/reviewjournal/status/1902010578903941330?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Musk on Sean Hannity...
🚨 Elon Musk just SLAMMED the Democrats for violently attacking Tesla
"I always thought that Democrats were supposed to be the party of empathy and caring, and yet they are burning down cars, firebombing dealerships..."
"There is some kind of mental illness going on because… https://t.co/rzW84MXVQH
— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) https://twitter.com/nicksortor/status/1902175283115127196?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Why haven't Democrats condemned the terror attacks?
* * *
Far-left violence targeting Tesla dealerships, Supercharging networks, and individual Teslas continued early Tuesday morning, with multiple vehicles set on fire at a Tesla service center in Las Vegas.
Local media outlet https://www.8newsnow.com/news/local-news/multiple-vehicles-set-on-fire-at-tesla-center-in-las-vegas-police-say/
reported the Tesla Collision Center in the 6000 block of Badura Avenue, near Jones Boulevard and the 215 Beltway, had several vehicles set on fire in the parking lot by an individual around 0245 local time.
DEVELOPING: Video provided to the Review-Journal shows several https://twitter.com/Tesla?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
vehicles engulfed in flames after Las Vegas police say they were set on fire by an individual early Tuesday morning.
UPDATES→ https://t.co/sZQr9j1E5A
— Las Vegas Review-Journal (@reviewjournal) https://twitter.com/reviewjournal/status/1902010578903941330?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
"LVMPD Communications received information that an individual had set several vehicles on fire in the parking lot and caused damage to the property," Las Vegas police said.
FBI spokeswoman Sandy Breault for the Las Vegas field office told reporters that agents are on the scene and investigating the fire.
One citizen journalist posted images from the crime scene, showing doors of the Tesla building spray painted with the message: "Resist."
... and there's the political motive.
Tesla cars set on fire in Las Vegas at Badura and Jones. Graffiti on front window of building says "Resist". Photos taken 3/18/25 at 7am https://t.co/cLj9RfGi7Z
— Emperor Batsteg (@batsteg) https://twitter.com/batsteg/status/1902000356114198855?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
President Trump has previously stated that leftist attacks on Tesla will be labeled domestic terrorism, and perpetrators will "go through hell." ...
BREAKING: Trump announced any violence against Tesla dealerships would be labeled as domestic terrorism!
GOOD! https://t.co/YBCeOmF0Jb
— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) https://twitter.com/GuntherEagleman/status/1899554088506753084?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Latest incidents:
Musk called it "extreme domestic terrorism..."
Encouraging destruction of Teslas throughout the country is extreme domestic terrorism!! https://t.co/8TCNIbrQxA
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1902084259197939834?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Even if you hate Elon and Trump, you have to admit this is domestic terrorism.
The Tesla attacks are getting way out of hand, and people have gone insane.
The far left continues to escalate things, and this is not going to end well.https://t.co/FOoBteT5pU
— Michael Oxford - AKA The Santa Cruz Mountain Goat (@SCMountainGoat) https://twitter.com/SCMountainGoat/status/1900003712686580114?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
MORE TESLA TERRORISM
A masked man vandalized a Tesla location in South Carolina with spray paint writing “F*** Trump” and “long live Ukraine.” He then set charging stations on fire with Molotov cocktails and accidentally set himself on fire too.
The suspect is still at large.… https://t.co/bL5PG2yXoY
— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1899595188084855106?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
President Trump says he will be labeling violent attacks on Tesla locations as acts of “domestic terrorism.” https://t.co/qlyfp5fWYW
— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1899553206113305022?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Leftist activists are targeting the American company with arson attacks at showroom locations and Supercharging networks, while deranged lone-wolf liberals are vandalizing Teslas in parking lots, parking garages, and on city streets—driven by rage—all because the Trump administration and Elon Musk's DOGE are eliminating Deep State fraud and waste.
MORE LGBTQ TERRORISM
Erin L. White, a self-identified "She/They" was arrested for allegedly vandalizing a Tesla service center in Buffalo Grove, IL.
White allegedly used spray paint to write "Trump Sold US," "F*ck Elon Musk," and "Trans Rights are Human Rights" on the front… https://t.co/Pq2vCvdBaf
— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1901764182795538542?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The coordinated attacks being launched on Tesla are now being called acts of terrorism.
This began with organized protests at Tesla dealerships, then escalated into threats of violence and arson. And now, the Trump admin. is saying it could be a form of domestic terrorism. https://t.co/zyNK3EWCqm
— EpochTV (@EpochTV) https://twitter.com/EpochTV/status/1900297070617244100?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Imagine brainwashing your young adult children to think Trump and Elon are “literally Hitler” only to have them turn into little entitled activists who go out and vandalize Tesla vehicles, charging stations and dealerships which results in felony domestic terrorism charges… https://t.co/bATMF3BiJ1
— Lucy Riles (@LucyRiles) https://twitter.com/LucyRiles/status/1901404129894813781?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
This is all a terrible look for Democrats as they defend the corrupt status quo and their unhinged voters attack an American company. The Justice Department might want to investigate if there is any foreign influence in these attacks against the American company.
Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire https://x.com/shaunmmaguire/status/1902073126349131958
on X, "this is all anarchoterrorism."
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 03/19/2025 - 06:49
Harold Hamm: "Drill, Baby, Drill" Needs $80 Oil
Harold Hamm: "Drill, Baby, Drill" Needs $80 Oil
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Harold-Hamm-Drill-Baby-Drill-Needs-80-Oil.html
Harold Hamm: would need an oil price of around $80 per barrel to cover the cost of drilling wells.'
U.S. Energy Secretary Wright: the administration isn’t targeting a specific price of oil, but it works to bring back common sense and pro-energy policies in America.
Scott Sheffield: The cash breakeven price, including dividends, is $50-$55 for U.S. oil companies, and “that $50 oil is not going to work.
U.S. shale needs much higher oil prices than $50 per barrel, and even higher than the current WTI Crude price in the high $60s, for a “drill, baby, drill” boom, oil tycoon and Trump campaign donor Harold Hamm says.
?itok=0WmJ_voX
American producers, especially those pumping crude outside the Tier 1 inventory in the best Permian locations, would need an oil price of around $80 per barrel to cover the cost of drilling wells.
“There are a lot of fields that are getting to the point that’s real tough to keep that cost of supply down,” Hamm told Bloomberg Television in an interview on the sidelines of the CERAWeek conference in Houston.
“When you get down to that $50 oil that you talked about, then you’re below the point where you’re going to ‘drill, baby, drill,’” the shale pioneer added.
Over the past few days, there has been a lot of talk of $50 oil and the shale industry.
The Trump Administration appeared to be pointing to $50 as a price that would be low enough for American energy prices to drop but still good enough for U.S. shale to prosper.
However, the industry and Wall Street banks beg to differ.
They say that $50 oil is so low that it would see production curtailments as the average cash breakeven price, including dividends, is estimated at $50-$55 per barrel of oil.
And the industry is definitely not prepared to cut dividends after diligently working for a few years to boost shareholder returns and make U.S. oil stocks attractive again.
U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright told the https://www.ft.com/content/6b7f0af8-6c59-44bb-b07a-43d4768b96fd
last week that shale producers could increase production even if oil prices fell to $50 per barrel as the sector continues to innovate and boost efficiency gains.
“New supply is going to drive prices down. Companies are going to innovate, drive their prices down and consumers and suppliers will bounce back and forth,” Wright, a former boss at fracking firm Liberty Energy, told FT.
At CERAWeek by S&P Global, Secretary Wright said the administration isn’t targeting a specific price of oil, but it works to bring back common sense and pro-energy policies in America.
The Trump Administration believes that eased permitting and lighter regulatory burdens on U.S. oil and gas producers would lead to more production even at lower oil prices.
But industry veterans, from Harold Hamm to Scott Sheffield, the founder of Pioneer Natural Resources which was sold to Exxon last year, don’t think prices lower than $60 would work.
Oil executives cheered the pro-energy agenda of the Trump Administration, welcoming the lifting of the Biden LNG permit freeze and the start of the process to repeal the so-called methane fee.
However, they are quietly concerned that oil prices at current levels are already on the verge of making money much more difficult.
Pioneer’s founder and industry veteran Sheffield has some advice for the U.S. oil firms.
“You’ve really got to hunker down,” Sheffield told a Bloomberg Television https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-11/shale-pioneer-sheffield-warns-oil-chiefs-of-grim-times-ahead
on last week.
Oil prices are likely to fall into the range of $50 to $60 per barrel, Sheffield says, noting that American producers will struggle at these prices.
The cash breakeven price, including dividends, is $50-$55 for U.S. oil companies, and “that $50 oil is not going to work,” Sheffield told https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/03/11/pioneer-natural-ceo-scott-sheffield-on-trumps-tariffs-impact-on-steel-business-and-oil-prices.html
.
Other industry executives, as well as investment banks, also believe that $65 oil and below would present challenges to U.S. shale to keep production steady, let alone “drill, baby, drill.”
Saad Rahim, chief economist at commodity trader Trafigura, told https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/markets/oil/2025/03/12/top-oil-traders-turn-bearish-on-prices-seeing-oversupply/
that “$60 feels too low for much of the industry to work.”
With https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#WTI-Crude
.
“A drop into the upper $50s likely results in a bigger psychological impact with the rig count potentially falling ~75 and production down” by more than 300,000 barrels a day (bpd), according to Gruber.
Shale costs will also go up with the U.S. import tariffs on steel and aluminum, executives including Hamm say.
The U.S. has steelmakers “but they can’t supply it all,” Hamm told Bloomberg, referring to the steel pipes the industry uses to drill wells.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 03/19/2025 - 06:30
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/harold-hamm-drill-baby-drill-needs-80-oil
Advocacy Group Calls For US Probe On Non-English Speaking Migrant Truck Drivers After Deadly Austin Crash
Advocacy Group Calls For US Probe On Non-English Speaking Migrant Truck Drivers After Deadly Austin Crash
Local police in Austin, Texas, have arrested truck driver Solomun Weldekeal Araya, 37, in connection with the horrific 19-vehicle crash that left five people dead and 12 injured. The incident highlights rising concerns over America's highways flooded with potentially unqualified migrant truck drivers.
Inbox: According to a reliable internal source, Solomun Weldekeal Araya, an 18-wheeler driver who was arrested and is facing intoxication charges after a North Austin crash that claimed five lives, was a contract driver on a work visa.
He was transporting items from an… https://t.co/EC3ZMLoA2s
— Sarah Fields (@SarahisCensored) https://twitter.com/SarahisCensored/status/1901172449376383175?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
According to an affidavit obtained by https://www.kvue.com/article/news/crime/austin-crash-i35-driver-failed-sobriety-test-drugs-responsible-affidavit-solomun-araya/269-b2ae3db3-87ee-4b14-8e9c-a0bc562d79dc
, one witness described Araya's 18-wheeler plowing into stopped traffic along a stretch of highway in North Austin. The person said it was as if the truck driver forgot to brake. Police said Araya is behind bars at the Travis County Jail.
Austin-Travis County EMS wrote on X at the time of the horrific crash on Thursday night that several people were "pinned in their vehicles" following the "collision involving multiple vehicles and a semi-truck."
"5 patients (3 adults, 1 child, 1 infant) have been pronounced deceased on scene," Austin-Travis County EMS wrote on X.
1/2 https://twitter.com/hashtag/ATXTrafficFatality?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
FINAL Vehicle Rescue on N Ih 35: 17 patients & 17 vehicles involved.
5 patients (3 adults, 1 child, 1 infant) have been pronounced deceased on scene.https://twitter.com/hashtag/ATCEMSMedics?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
transported 11 patients:
2 adults to St. David’s Round Rock w/life threatening injuries.
— ATCEMS (@ATCEMS) https://twitter.com/ATCEMS/status/1900455997870612802?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
According to KVUE, police stated that the driver showed signs of intoxication following the crash despite a preliminary breathalyzer test showing a Blood Alcohol Concentration of 0.00. However, Araya displayed "all six" signs of intoxication and failed a field sobriety test. Authorities raised concerns that he may have ingested depressants before the accident.
According to the advocacy group https://americantruckers.com/
on X, a critical detail about this crash, which reposted a video from the accident scene, is that the driver "barely spoke English."
🚨Austin Truck Crash Kills 5 and Injures 11 - Possible Non-Citizen Truck Drivers Involved🚨
American Truckers United believes there is a 90% chance at least one of the truck drivers was a non-citizen truck driver. The accident investigation should include a background on the… https://t.co/GcBU8EHGbJ
— American Truckers (@atutruckers) https://twitter.com/atutruckers/status/1900542044172361947?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
"Experts say he was almost certainly on a Non-Domicile CDL. Special interest groups have flooded our roads with unvetted, unqualified, untrained drivers, endangering us all!" American Truckers said, adding:
DEMAND AN IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION into this driver's licensing, vetting, and training—or lack thereof!
MORE CRITICALLY, LAUNCH A NATIONAL PROBE into the entities allowing illiterate, ill-trained operators onto our highways!
RESTORE SAFETY, SECURITY, AND INTEGRITY TO OUR ROADS—ACT NOW BEFORE MORE LIVES ARE LOST!
ATU has confirmed: the driver behind today’s horrific Austin, TX crash—killing 5 and injuring 11—barely spoke English. Experts say he was almost certainly on a Non-Domicile CDL. Special interest groups have flooded our roads with unvetted, unqualified, untrained drivers,… https://t.co/uByIPPp5j3
— American Truckers (@atutruckers) https://twitter.com/atutruckers/status/1900724530395459785?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Another X user pointed to the nonprofit Global Impact Initiative, saying that ...
CDL training for Refugees. 501c3 ( of course )
Global Impact Initiative (Gii) has developed relationships with over 250 Austin-based refugee families from Afghanistan, Iraq, and Ukraine with the aim of facilitating their incorporation into the local community. More than 60% of…
— R. Hino Hunter (@RinoHunter2025) https://twitter.com/RinoHunter2025/status/1900923172951572877?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Local news outlet KXAN posted a video a few years ago about the nonprofit launching a "CDL refugee training program." There is no confirmation on whether Araya took the CDL course through the nonprofit.
Hmmm...
Possible Connection in Two of Texas's worst Truck Crashes
Fort Worth TX Pileup of 2021 and Austin TX Pileup of 2025 may have a common denominator in the truck drivers involved in the accidents.
Where did they get their CDLs?
How did they get their CDLs?
Who issued their CDLs?… https://t.co/NRV18UIfiH
— American Truckers (@atutruckers) https://twitter.com/atutruckers/status/1900983569344090513?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
And guess what's happening in Arkansas: "English Checks Have Begun."
English Checks Have Begun ‼️ Truck driver in Arkansas at a weigh station
- They’re stopping ALL trucks
- Everyone is handed a piece of paper
- They must read it out loud
- They must also write what they’re told to write
“I was actually witnessing people in handcuffs that had… https://t.co/lkRAddBSfL
— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) https://twitter.com/WallStreetApes/status/1901231018289623373?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
American Truckers is entirely correct: "LAUNCH A NATIONAL PROBE into the entities allowing illiterate, ill-trained operators onto our highways!"
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 03/19/2025 - 05:45
ECB Prepping The Ground For Digital Euro Launch
ECB Prepping The Ground For Digital Euro Launch
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/politics/ecb-prepping-the-ground-for-digital-euro-launch
The European Central Bank (ECB) is laying the groundwork for the probable launch of its wholesale and retail central bank digital currency (CBDC), the Digital Euro. Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, shared this update at their latest press conference. “President Lagarde stressed that the digital euro is ‘more relevant than ever,'” the ECB tweeted.
Lagarde emphasized that the Digital Euro, the EU’s CBDC solution, is set to launch in October 2025—provided it passes the legislative phase involving key stakeholders, including the European Commission, Parliament, and Council. Notably absent from this process is the European public, despite the significant impact this initiative will have on their daily lives.
🇪🇺 CBDC in EU will launch in Oct. 2025.
Wholesale & retail.
🇮🇱 Israel is following EU’s footsteps - preparing for CBDC with a new 110 page design document. https://t.co/fUr1CkBRmy
— Efrat Fenigson (@efenigson) https://twitter.com/efenigson/status/1898382481184993711?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Why Is the Digital Euro More Relevant Than Ever?
Could it be linked to Ursula von der Leyen’s recent “ReArm Europe” announcement, which proposes the creation of an EU army? This initiative requires an estimated €800 billion in funding—money the EU does not have. The options? Extracting it from EU member states and their citizens or printing fresh funds via the ECB. Either way, it’s time to warm up the ECB’s money printers!
We are living in dangerous times.
Europe‘s security is threatened in a very real way.
Today I present ReArm Europe.
A plan for a safer and more resilient Europe ↓ https://t.co/CYTytB5ZMk
— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1896839432021463265?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Furthermore, The EU has introduced the “Savings and Investments Union”, aiming to redirect €10 trillion in “unused savings” from citizens to finance military growth and bolster Europe’s defense industry. “We’ll turn private savings into much-needed investment,” tweeted von der Leyen. If this hasn’t shocked you already, I’ll try to clarify: This is a clear violation of private property rights, and an implicit confiscation of Europeans’ wealth, while bluntly using their funds as the EU sees fit, including funding of a military industrial complex, without even asking them.
If the EU is accelerating toward totalitarian collectivism, as this statement suggests, then a CBDC would be a powerful tool—enabling tighter control over Europeans’ money with features like an “on/off” switch and programming abilities.
If most of your money is still in fiat the bank / stocks / mortgaged real estate etc. - they don’t need your permission.
They want you owning nothing, despaired & numb.
You may want to consider a permissionless, unconfiscatable, easily mobile & liquid digital asset such as… https://t.co/K2xjTpcyS7
— Efrat Fenigson (@efenigson) https://twitter.com/efenigson/status/1899834294698492267?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Christine Lagarde recently campaigned at the European Parliament, arguing that the Digital Euro is necessary to reduce the EU’s dependence on foreign payment solutions. European banks must innovate payment methods, but the EU’s primary concern isn’t just reliance on tech giants like Google Pay or Apple Pay—it’s the potential for widespread adoption of decentralized global protocols like Bitcoin.
The ECB is observing geopolitical trends, noting that the U.S. is embracing crypto, Bitcoin, and stablecoins—technologies that pose a risk to centralized control. Unsurprisingly, they are choosing a different path. According to https://www.reuters.com/technology/ecb-pitches-digital-euro-response-trumps-crypto-push-2025-01-24/
, “Eurozone banks need a digital euro to respond to U.S. President Donald Trump’s push to promote stablecoins” as part of a broader crypto strategy. ECB board member Piero Cipollone reinforced this stance, stating, “This solution further disintermediates banks as they lose fees, they lose clients… That’s why we need a digital euro.”
Bottom line, Lagarde’s and Von der Leyen’s recent agendas are aimed to drive more centralised control while strengthening the EU hierarchy, governance and incentive structure – that has always been their role.
New Digital Euro CBDC Survey
The ECB continues campaigning for the digital Euro, a centralized European payment mechanism - to 'decrease dependency on external forces'. https://twitter.com/hashtag/CBDC?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— Efrat Fenigson (@efenigson) https://twitter.com/efenigson/status/1900844524920074552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The ECB recently published findings from a https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb~cde4bd616e.wp3035en.pdf
on consumer attitudes toward retail CBDC, conducted among 19,000 Europeans across 11 Eurozone countries. Key takeaways include:
1) Lack of Interest – Most Europeans are not interested in the Digital Euro, as existing payment methods already serve their needs well.
?itok=eTC7yu6N
Why would you not adopt the digital euro? source: European Central Bank
2) Europeans are Open to Propaganda – While public interest is low, the survey found that Europeans are receptive to video-based education and training. The ECB’s study suggests that CBDC-related videos could drive widespread adoption by reshaping consumer beliefs. The report states: “Consumers who are shown a short video providing concise and clear communication about the key features of the digital euro are substantially more likely to update their beliefs… which increases their immediate likelihood of adopting it.” No wonder the ECB has ramped up its digital euro video content since late 2024. For example:
Propaganda for European CBDC, the digital euro, has began. Be aware. https://t.co/wStnfrZROZ
— Efrat Fenigson (@efenigson) https://twitter.com/efenigson/status/1857061448687476740?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
3) Preference for Existing Payment Methods – “Europeans have a strong preference for existing payment methods and see no real benefit in a new type of payment system”. While this finding sounds like a positive pushback, it can serve as a precursor to a tactic of technological integrations. “If you can’t beat them, join them” tactic – similarly to the Chinese e-CNY retail CBDC.
A recent Euromoney https://www.euromoney.com/article/2dzwqcx9fg5d243oyfj0g/capital-markets/digital-assets-deepdive/why-chinas-retail-cbdc-e-cny-is-taking-off
.
Not Just Retail—Wholesale Too
front, the EU is experimenting with distributed ledger technology (DLT) to interconnect financial institutions across Europe and beyond. This follows exploratory work conducted by the Eurosystem between May and November 2024. Their trials involved 64 participants—including central banks, financial market players, and DLT platform operators—conducting over 50 experiments.
“https://bitcoinmagazine.com/glossary/digital-cash
“
Lagarde insists that the Digital Euro is a form of cash, gaslighting and misleading uninformed Europeans about the risks of CBDCs. Permission-based CBDCs such as the Digital Euro are prone to micro levels of control through expiry dates, geofencing and programmability. If Europeans don’t recognize these dangers, they won’t resist the Digital Euro. By framing it as “https://bitcoinmagazine.com/glossary/digital-cash
,” the ECB ensures smoother public acceptance with little to no public fuss.
[2025] Europeans!
Are you ready for “YOUR Digital Euro”?
Christine Lagarde is prepping you to the next phase of EU’s CBDC, which is everything *but* a form of cash (nice try though). https://t.co/t6mG5liw26
— Efrat Fenigson (@efenigson) https://twitter.com/efenigson/status/1875972599735275550?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
To be clear, cash itself is fiat currency—centrally controlled, easily debased, and prone to inflation. Every time the issuer expands the money supply, citizens suffer from declining purchasing power, essentially being robbed by the state.
“Rules for Thee, But Not for Me”
While ordinary citizens are bound by the rule of law, elites often evade consequences. A prime example is Christine Lagarde, who was found guilty of negligence for approving a massive taxpayer-funded payout to controversial French businessman Bernard Tapie. However, she avoided a jail sentence. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/19/christine-lagarde-avoids-sentence-despite-guilty-verdict-in-negligence-trial
reported in 2016: “A French court convicted the head of the International Monetary Fund and former government minister, who had faced a €15,000 fine and up to a year in prison. But it decided she should not be punished, and that the conviction would not constitute a criminal record. … The IMF gave her its full support.”
My Prediction for the EU’s CBDC
Despite public disinterest, the ECB (and other central banks) will push forward with their CBDCs. To maintain the illusion of public involvement, they will conduct surveys and create engagement tools. But ultimately, the Digital Euro will be integrated into existing payment methods and consumer apps—just as China did with e-CNY. This strategy will drive adoption even without direct public enthusiasm.
We are, after all, playing the game of “democracy,” right?
Geopolitical analyst Alex Krainer recently tweeted in response to Lagarde and von der Leyen’s acceleration of CBDC efforts: “This is excellent news; Christine Lagarde and Ursula von der Leyen never took on something they didn’t completely mess up. I hope they’ll continue with their excellent performance. Godspeed.”
Stay tuned as I continue to track central banks’ moves toward CBDC implementation.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 03/19/2025 - 02:00
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/ecb-prepping-ground-digital-euro-launch
'Ridiculous!' - Trump Cancels Hunter Biden's Costly Secret Service Protection
'Ridiculous!' - Trump Cancels Hunter Biden's Costly Secret Service Protection
After Hunter Biden made headlines by vacationing in South Africa with a Secret Service detail on a week he was scheduled to appear for a deposition in a civil trial he initiated, President Trump on Monday night announced that he was canceling Hunter's federal protection, and his half-sister Ashley's too.
Trump's announcement came just hours after a reporter asked him about Hunter's travel and ongoing, taxpayer-funded security. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/us/politics/trump-biden-hunter-ashley-secret-service.html
of the Kennedy Center, where he earlier this year installed himself as chairman of the board.
?itok=7ILF7CHN
True to his word, at 5pm Monday, Trump took to his https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1901769226316030197
account to inform Hunter, Ashley and America that the government would no longer provide security protection for Joe Biden's adult children:
"Hunter Biden has had Secret Service protection for an extended period of time, all paid for by the United States Taxpayer. There are as many as 18 people on this Detail, which is ridiculous! ... Please be advised that, effective immediately, Hunter Biden will no longer receive Secret Service protection. Likewise, Ashley Biden who has 13 agents will be taken off the list."
To get some idea of how much the Bidens' security details were costing Americans, a https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13298781/Secret-Service-agents-spent-4-5-MILLION-protecting-Hunter-Biden-living-Malibu-agents-staying-30-000-month-villa.html
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) inquiry determined that the Secret Service spent more than $4.5 million to protect Hunter over an 18-month period between the start of 2021 and June 2022, while Biden lived in Malibu. During that stretch, the service shelled out $30,000 a month just for a villa to house their agents.
Former presidents and their spouses are assured of life-long Secret Serve protection by federal statute. Protection for children over age 16, terminates along with the president's term in office -- officially, but not in practice. Outgoing presidents frequently extend adult children's coverage for up to six months, as https://apnews.com/article/hunter-biden-trump-secret-service-ashley-50eba3fcd1ef9d2580fb4bc464d229f6
, Trump's former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and his former national security adviser John Bolton.
?itok=WwWtg_OA
It's not clear exactly when Secret Service agents will step away from Biden's children. “We are aware of the President’s decision to terminate protection for Hunter and Ashley Biden,” said Secret Service spokesperson Anthony Guglielmi in a statement. “The Secret Service will comply and is actively working with the protective details and the White House to ensure compliance as soon as possible.”
At the same time he was in South Africa, Hunter was scheduled to give a deposition pursuant to a lawsuit he filed against former Trump staffer Garrett Ziegler, accusing him of illegally hacking and then circulating 10,000 photos from Hunter's infamous "Laptop from Hell." Earlier this month, Hunter told the judge he wanted to drop the case, on the basis that he had millions of dollars in debt and sales of his artwork and memoir were tanking.
Secret Service agents no longer having to follow Hunter to the hood to buy crackhttps://t.co/pOfg49F4Uy
— Mostly Peaceful Memes (@MostlyPeacefull) https://twitter.com/MostlyPeacefull/status/1901763369860001989?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Hunter was already in Cape Town when the judge agreed to cancel the case on Thursday. “That means he [was] assuming his daddy’s appointee is gonna rubber stamp what he wants," Ziegler told the https://nypost.com/2025/03/15/us-news/hunter-biden-fled-for-south-africa-vacation-avoiding-lawsuit-deposition/
and me, and just generally to shut the f**k up.”
Trump's Monday announcement took aim at Hunter's current travel destination. “He is currently vacationing in, of all places, South Africa, where the Human Rights of people has [sic] been strenuously questioned," wrote Trump, who earnestly supports the governments of Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other countries where the human rights of people have been strenuously questioned. Hunter's wife, https://forward.com/schmooze/467305/hunter-biden-melissa-batya-cohen-jewish-wife/
.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 03/18/2025 - 14:40
How Tariffs Will Lower The Cost Of Living
How Tariffs Will Lower The Cost Of Living
https://amgreatness.com/2025/03/18/how-tariffs-will-lower-the-cost-of-living/
Critics of President Trump’s trade policy - tariffs, tariffs, and more tariffs - cry that tariffs will cause inflation and make Americans poor. This is false.
Although there will be a brief period where the market adjusts to the new normal, tariffs will not cause inflation. In fact, tariffs will lower the cost of living in the long run.
Perhaps the more interesting question to ask is: inflation of what? Consumer goods? Why are these critics not concerned about the inflation of assets like houses or investments that are caused by economic globalism and the trade deficit? Why are the Democrats and Neocons so preoccupied with keeping the cost of disposable products low, when people cannot afford their rent or mortgages?
?itok=zaiZ49R6
Fiddling with the grasshoppers
Contrary to popular belief,https://amgreatness.com/2025/02/25/no-trumps-tariffs-will-not-cause-inflation/
during President Trump’s first term, and they are not likely to do so the second time around.
There are a few reasons for this.
First, a tariff is a tax imposed on imports. For example, a 25% tariff on steel would increase the price of steel coming from Canada or South Korea. However, that same tariff would not apply to steel that was made in America. In this way, tariffs are a completely avoidable tax. If you do not want to pay tariffs, buy American. Simple.
Not only do tariffs create an incentive for consumers to buy American, but they also create an incentive for foreign producers to lower their costs. If countries like China or Mexico want access to America’s market—which they certainly will—then they will have to find a way to reduce their costs to balance out the tariff. Ultimately, lower production costs will benefit everyone.
At this stage, critics will argue that even if you buy American, you will still end up paying more. Why? American goods cost more to begin with, and without foreign competition, American businesses will price-gouge.
This may not be true in the short term and is certainly false in the long term. To begin with, America’s manufacturing industry is among thehttps://www.brookings.edu/articles/global-manufacturing-scorecard-how-the-us-compares-to-18-other-nations/
. Given that productivity is what ultimately drives prices, America’s manufactured goods should also be among the cheapest in the world—and it is.
The problem is that prices are skewed byhttps://amgreatness.com/2025/02/17/why-trumps-steel-tariffs-must-be-permanent/
, foreign currency manipulation, and predatory trade practices. This results in efficient and cost-effective American factories being closed, while inefficient foreign factories—in places like Italy and Germany, for example—remain open for business. Protecting American markets from abuse will help our domestic free market function more efficiently. This will lower costs as the market adjusts to the new normal.
Further,https://www.amazon.com/Reshore-Tariffs-Bring-Revive-American/dp/1958682144/
and thereby increase domestic output. Manufacturing is an interesting industry because prices are subject to increasing returns. That is, the more that we manufacture, the lower the price of each unit of production becomes. This is because capital costs are fixed, and the more we make, the more these costs are disbursed. As such, we have good reason to believe that prices of American products will actually decrease if we impose tariffs. This will help offset the expected short-term increases.
Finally, the only way to decrease prices in the long run is to increase productivity—to invent and implement new technology. The best catalyst for this is higher input costs, particularly labor costs. We can expect that companies that reshore their factories from places where labor is plentiful and cheap will be looking to invest in capital and technology that improves productivity. In the long run, this will drive invention and innovation and lower the cost of goods—not just for Americans, but for everyone.
The world prospers when America prospers. Tariffs are an effective tool to rebalance America’s economy away from financial interests—moving money—and into productive investments. Tariffs will realign the economy towards building the future, rather than buying it.
Compared to what?
The media laments that tariffs will increase the price of consumer goods. However, they appear blissfully unaware that the current trade paradigm—massive, chronic trade deficits driven by unfair and asymmetrical trade with the rest of the world—also causes inflation of a different kind.
America imports far more than it exports. This results in a trade deficit, which we need to pay for. How do we do this? By selling assets and debts. As a result, the trade deficit directly contributes to the increase in prices—inflation—of American assets and debts. For example, in 2024, foreigners bought an estimated $42 billion ofhttps://homeabroadinc.com/foreign-home-buyers-statistics/
, and $12 billion of commercial real estate. This drives up real estate prices, locking our own young people out of the real estate market and denying them their share of the American Dream.
In addition to real estate, foreigners buy American businesses. As of June 2023, foreign investors own 17% of all American equities. Ownership of our businesses has dire consequences, such as giving foreign governments direct access to our technologies. This perpetuates thehttps://nationaleconomicseditorial.com/2018/10/01/china-steals-600-billion-america-ip/
, which costs hundreds of billions annually, and jeopardizes our national security.
We also trade debt. This is sort of like buying groceries on our credit cards, except is occurring at the national level. For example, foreigners own some $8.67 trillion of U.S. Treasury securities, accounting for 24 percent of the public debt. Further, America’s corporate and household debt has ballooned since 1973 to the highest levels since World War 2.
Debt is especially dangerous because we have to repay the principle and we pay interest. This inflates the cost of buying foreign products in a way that most economists fail to appreciate. Consider that America became a debtor nation in 2006—for the first time since the Great Depression. As a result, we are now paying over $150 billion in interest every year to foreign entities for the privilege of buying the products we should be building.
The elites oppose tariffs because consumer goods—things people want—may rise in price. In comparison, the absence of tariffs inflates the price of housing—something people need. From this, we can see that the elites do not actually care about inflation. Instead, they are using trade policy to inflate the price of assets that they already own, such as real estate and stocks, at the expense of the livelihoods of ordinary Americans.
Tariffs may increase the inflation of consumer goods, but this will be offset by the deflation of assets and debts.
Not only that but reshoring the factories will drive down prices in the long run by creating fertile ground for invention and innovation. The logical conclusion is inescapable: America needs tariffs to reshore our factories and revive the American Dream.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 03/18/2025 - 14:25
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/how-tariffs-will-lower-cost-living
Trump Admin Moves To Reinstate Over 24,000 Federal Workers After Obama Judge Blocks Path
Trump Admin Moves To Reinstate Over 24,000 Federal Workers After Obama Judge Blocks Path
The Trump administration is taking steps to reinstate thousands of probationary federal workers who were fired in an effort to downsize the government, according to court filings in one of two cases where judges deemed the terminations unlawful.
_92.jpg?itok=CWvs5ut9
U.S. District Judge James Bredar, an Obama appointee, https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69714275/43/state-of-maryland-v-united-states-department-of-agriculture/
by a federal judge in San Francisco, who also found terminations at six agencies to be illegal.
According to more than a dozen declarations https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69714275/52/1/state-of-maryland-v-united-states-department-of-agriculture/
Monday night, the administration has moved to reinstate roughly 24,000 probationary workers.
Rehiring Process Creates Uncertainty
According to the Monday night filings, many of the reinstated employees have been placed on paid administrative leave, while others have returned to full employment. However, officials warn that the reinstatement process could create confusion and operational challenges, particularly for employees who are reinstated only to potentially face termination again if an appellate court overturns the ruling.
Reesha Trznadel, the acting chief human capital officer at the Department of Energy, cautioned in a declaration that reinstating employees “could impose burdens on DOE and cause significant confusion and turmoil for the terminated employees.”
Since taking office, the Trump administration has taken aggressive steps to reshape the federal bureaucracy, including dismissing employees during their probationary periods. The recent ruling represents a legal setback for these efforts, reinforcing protections for federal workers and challenging the administration’s justification for its sweeping dismissals.
The legal battle is expected to continue, with the possibility that an appellate ruling could overturn Bredar’s decision. Until then, agencies must navigate the complexities of onboarding and retraining employees who may face further job uncertainty in the months ahead.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 03/18/2025 - 14:05
US Building Permits Sink For 3rd Straight Month
US Building Permits Sink For 3rd Straight Month
After an unexpected plunge in January, February Housing Starts were expected to bounce back modestly (while building permits were expected to slow further) as the impact of storms fades.
The analysts were right in direction but off in magnitude as, despite a slump in homebuilder sentiment, housing starts exploded 11.2% higher MoM (after dropping 11.5% MoM in January), well above all all estimates. Building Permits fell 1.2% MoM (just shy of the 1.4% decline MoM expected)...
?itok=02wqAEu9
Source: Bloomberg
That is the third month in a row of permits declining...
?itok=4skvd8xY
Source: Bloomberg
Both single-family and multi-unit building permits declined while single-family and multi-unit starts soared...
?itok=YCc8qssQ
Source: Bloomberg
So, the forward-looking aspect of the residential construction data is not pretty... despite mortgage rates tumbling.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 03/18/2025 - 08:39
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-building-permits-sink-3rd-straight-month
Putin Demands Halt To All Western Arms For Ukraine Ahead Of Trump Call
Putin Demands Halt To All Western Arms For Ukraine Ahead Of Trump Call
Just ahead of the high-stakes phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, Bloomberg is reporting that the Russian leader will stipulate that all weapons deliveries to Ukraine, including US and European aid, be suspended.
This comes as no surprise, given that from the start Moscow has condemned the build-up of NATO military infrastructure in Ukraine. It will be the first call between the two since Washington advanced the 30-day ceasefire plan with an aim of achieving a lasting peace. Putin is also expected to request that Ukraine's military cannot resupply or conduct training - especially by Western military programs - during the interim truce.
"Many elements of a Final Agreement have been agreed to, but much remains," Trump wrote on Monday on Truth Social. He stressed that the war "must end NOW." Reports say the call is expected between 9am and 11am Washington time, and will include focus on "further normalization" - the Russian side indicated.
?itok=a2BYv4Ry
His mention of "dividing up certain assets" was cause for much speculation on Monday, with much of the commentary focused on control of Ukraine's nuclear power plants.
According to the latest from https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1901942036313317424
:
Vladimir Putin is demanding a suspension of all weapons deliveries to Ukraine during any ceasefire, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Ahead of his call with Trump today, Putin has made this a prerequisite for Russia signing up to a truce, said a senior European official and three people in Moscow familiar with Russia’s position.
While Russia wants to halt all arms deliveries, its minimum aim is that US military aid should stop, two of the people said.
The senior European official said Europe was extremely reluctant to agree to the demand. It would risk a situation where Russia was able to rearm during a truce but Ukraine was prevented from doing so, they said.
It is the latest example of maximalist demands made by Putin which will be very difficult for Ukraine and Europe to accept.
The UK and EU are both working on efforts to deliver fresh military aid packages to Ukraine as soon as possible.
The suspension of arms supplies sought by Putin would be lifted after a final peace accord so long as Ukraine agreed to limits on its army, one person in Moscow said.
And: As of 8:00am S&P futures are down 0.3%, losing ground after Bloomberg reported Russian President Vladimir Putin is demanding a suspension of all weapons deliveries to Ukraine...
?itok=oPv8HrZK
There are also reports saying that the US is mulling recognizing Crimea as part of Russia, and that it may urge the Untied Nations to do the same. This could be an 'easy' one for the US, which is likely to entice Putin.
Trump had continued in his Monday social media post, "I look very much forward to the call with President Putin. Many elements of a Final Agreement have been agreed to, but much remains."
And Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday that the two leaders will discuss "a large number of issues from the normalization of our relations and the Ukrainian issue." He said, "The leaders will speak for as long as they deem necessary" - after their first phone call had lasted 90-minutes.
EU leaders are said to be "trembling"... “That is why there is a mood of alarm in Europe’s capitals,” Bild wrote Tuesday.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 03/18/2025 - 08:33
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/putin-demands-halt-western-military-aid-ukraine-ahead-trump-call
Futures Fall, Euro Rises Ahead Of Key Trump-Putin Call, German Vote
Futures Fall, Euro Rises Ahead Of Key Trump-Putin Call, German Vote
US equity futures are lower following yesterday’s rally, while European stocks and the euro rose ahead of a German parliamentary vote that is expected to sign off on a spending program funded entirely by hundreds of billions in new debt, something which until recently was anathema to the ruling conservatives. As of 8:00am S&P futures are down 0.3%, losing ground after Bloomberg reported Russian President Vladimir Putin is demanding a suspension of all weapons deliveries to Ukraine; Nasdaq futures slide 0.4% with Mag7 names mixed premarket as Nvidia rose ahead of Jensen Huang’s much-anticipated keynote speech at the company’s GAI conference while TSLA lags on BYD news of a 5-min full charge, increasing substitution risk. Bond yields are flat to +2bps as the curve twists steeper and USD starts the day flat. Commodities are led higher by Energy and Precious Metals, driven by the latest escalation in the middle east (oil) as Israel broke the ceasefire with Hamas and killed over 400 in overnight strikes over Gaza, as well as general de-risking/USD diversification which has sent gold to a record high of $3,025. On today's calendar, Trump/Putin are supposed to speak later today on a Ukraine ceasefire. Today’s macro data focus is on Import/Export prices, Industrial Production and Housing Data; however, none are expected to be market moving given the Fed's decision to keep rates unch tomorrow.
?itok=v5_OrH15
In premarket trading, Tesla is the top decliner in the Mag 7 basket, while Nvidia investors are focused on Jensen Huang’s much-anticipated keynote speech at the GPU Technology Conference (Alphabet -0.1%, Amazon -0.8%, Apple -0.07, Microsoft -0.3%, Meta -0.3%, Nvidia +0.1% and Tesla -1.9%). Bakkt Holdings sinks 31% after the company said two major partners would not renew their commercial agreements. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Grab Holdings’ US-listed shares jump 5% as the firm is said to be moving forward with its attempt to take over its Indonesian rival GoTo Group.
Harrow soars 20% after the eyecare-pharmaceutical company posted preliminary 4Q revenue that topped expectations.
Lucid Group gains 2% after Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating on the electric-vehicle maker, seeing potential for the stock to re-rate with new leadership that can put forward an artificial intelligence strategy through partnerships.
Nio climbs 5% after the Chinese EV company received an investment from battery giant CATL; while Li Auto (LI) gains 5% following a presentation at Nvidia’s annual AI conference.
PepsiCo slips 1% after Barclays issued a downgrade, saying its ability to re-rate higher depends on the fate of the US snacking business, and “there remains a heavy lift in order to shore up Frito-Lay North America.”
As concerns about the US economy and markets return, sentiment toward Europe keeps improving as the prospect of German fiscal expansion has been a major catalyst for European equities’ outperformance this year, with a Bank of America monthly survey showing investors’ weighting to European stocks at a mid-2021 high. Their US allocations, meanwhile, have fallen by a record amount in recent weeks as President Donald Trump’s trade and labor policies threaten economic growth and company profits.
“US equities are being challenged not only by trade and tariff uncertainty, but even more by uncertainty over the administration’s economic strategy,” Von Rotberg at Bank J. Safra Sarasin said, noting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s dismissal of the recent Wall Street selloff as a “healthy” correction.
Beside's Nvidia's GAI conference today, the other big event of the week is the Federal Reserve meeting that kicks off later Tuesday. While interest rates are expected to stay unchanged, investors are eagerly awaiting Chair Jerome Powell’s assesment on the economy and how much policy support could be offered by the central bank this year.
Meanwhile, uncertainty on the geopolitical front sent gold prices to a new record above $3,025 an ounce, as Israel shattered a nearly two-month ceasefire with Hamas by launching airstrikes across Gaza. The events also lifted oil prices for a third day. Investors will also be tracking newsflow from Trump’s upcoming call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as the push continues to end fighting in Ukraine. Details of the US-Russia talks have been sketchy so far, but Trump has said the two sides were talking about “dividing up certain assets.”
In Europe, the extremely overbought Stoxx 600 index climbed 0.6%, with Germany’s DAX benchmark touching a new record high rising 1.1%, before the landmark vote that should usher in a flood of debt to pay for more expansive fiscal policy and boost economic growth across Europe. German borrowing costs edged higher, while the euro firmed to a new five-month high versus the dollar. Among individual stock movers, companies such as Thyssenkrupp AG and BAE Systems Plc extended recent gains, as a Bloomberg analysis showed these firms stand to benefit the most from the spending splurge. Auto stocks also climbed, lifted by optimism around the outlook for electric vehicles after China’s BYD Co. unveiled rapid-charging EV models. BYD shares earlier hit a record high, while Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks jumped 2.5%. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:
German stocks are outperforming the broader European index on Tuesday with the country’s lawmakers set to vote on a bill that would unlock hundreds of billions of euros to finance defense and infrastructure spending
Computacenter shares jump as much as 13%, the most in 18 months, after the IT company confirmed revenue returned to growth in the second half of 2024. Analysts at Jefferies say the pivot to growth should help fuel a re-rating in the stock
Trustpilot shares rise as much as 16% after the user-review site reported FY24 adj. Ebitda that beat analyst expectations and guided to a 2 percentage-point increase in Ebitda margin this year
Bytes Technology shares soar as much as 18%, the biggest jump since December 2020, after a positive trading update which analysts said should help investor sentiment after recent underperformance
Sabre Insurance shares jump as much as 11%, the biggest intraday surge since 2022, after the company announced a higher dividend and its first-ever share buyback
EMS-Chemie shares drop as much as 6.3%, the most since July, after Kepler Cheuvreux cut the recommendation on the Swiss polymer and chemical company to reduce from hold, citing faster-than-expected escalation of the US trade war
Fraport’s shares fall as much as 4.5% after earnings from the airport services provider fell short of expectations and analysts flagged a weak outlook, with the company saying it expects profit to remain stable or decline slightly
Close Brothers slumps as much as 21% following first-half results, which included guidance for net interest margin in the firm’s banking unit that is below analyst expectations
“Long-term prospects for European equities have certainly improved, given the steeper growth trajectory in the years ahead,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J. Safra Sarasin.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, on track for a third day of gains, as rallies extended in Hong Kong and Japan. Indonesian equities tumbled on economic woes. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 1.1%, with major Chinese technology names including Alibaba and Tencent among the top contributors. A gauge of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong gained more than 2.5%, helped by a rally in Baidu after it released a new AI model. Japanese stocks rose after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway increased its stakes in five trading houses. Bucking the broader regional advance, Indonesia’s benchmark plunged as concerns mounted over weakening consumer spending in Southeast Asia’s largest economy and President Prabowo Subianto’s populist measures. The Jakarta Composite Index slid as much as 7.1%, the most since September 2011. Asian equities are extending their outperformance over US peers this year, powered by the sharp tech-driven rebound in Chinese equities. Investors will be taking further cues from a raft of earnings in China, with Xiaomi due to report later Tuesday, followed by Tencent and Meituan later this week.
In rates, treasuries are mixed with the curve steeper, unwinding a portion of Monday’s sharp twist-flattening move. US front-end yields are richer by around 1bp, long-end cheaper by 1bp-2bp, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 1bp-2bp; 10-year around 4.305% is ~1bp cheaper on the day with German 10-year lagging by 3bp, UK by 2bp. Bunds fell again, led by longer-dated maturities with German 30-year yields rising 4 bps to 3.15% ahead of parliamentary vote expected to open the door for increased spending on defense and infrastructure. US session includes economic data and 20-year bond auction, contributing to steepening pressure.For $13 billion 20-year bond reopening at 1pm New York time, the WI yield near 4.64% is ~19bp richer than February new-issue auction, which tailed by 1bp
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed and the US yield curve steepened modestly ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting that kicks off later Tuesday. The euro euro adds a few pips to $1.0935 having touched a five-month high earlier ahead of a German parliamentary vote that is expected to sign off on a spending program worth hundreds of billions of euros. The yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.3% against the greenback. The Swedish krona takes top spot with a 0.3% gain.
In commodities, oil climbed for a third day as escalating tensions in the Middle East overshadowed concerns about a potential global glut. Israel launched overnight airstrikes across Gaza that Hamas said killed hundreds of people, shattering a nearly two-month ceasefire with the Palestinian group. WTI climbed 1.4% to $68.50 a barrel, rising for a third day on escalating tensions in the Middle East. Gold rose to a record high above $3,025 an ounce as an escalation in Middle East tensions underscored its haven appeal, and investors weighed data that fueled concern the US economy is slowing down. Bitcoin falls 1.3% to below $83,000.
Looking at today's calendar, we get February housing starts/building permits, import/export price index, March New York Fed services business activity (8:30am) and February industrial production (9:15am). Fed officials are in external communications blackout ahead of Wednesday’s policy announcement
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,680.00
MXAP up 1.1% to 189.82
MXAPJ up 1.3% to 595.75
Nikkei up 1.2% to 37,845.42
Topix up 1.3% to 2,783.56
Hang Seng Index up 2.5% to 24,740.57
Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,429.76
Sensex up 1.3% to 75,120.70
Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,860.42
Kospi little changed at 2,612.34
Brent Futures up 1.0% to $71.78/bbl
Gold spot up 0.8% to $3,025.46
US Dollar Index down 0.12% to 103.24
Top Overnight News
Russia’s Vladimir Putin is demanding a suspension of all arms deliveries to Ukraine during a ceasefire proposed by Donald Trump, according to people familiar. The two leaders are set to hold a call this morning. BBG
Israeli airstrikes pounded Gaza, killing more than 400 people, Palestinian health authorities said on Tuesday, threatening the complete collapse of a two-month ceasefire as Israel vowed to use more force to free hostages held by Hamas. RTRS
US President Trump is scheduled to sign executive orders at 15:30EDT/19:30GMT on Tuesday.
US President Trump's administration is reportedly planning a 25% workforce reduction at the US IRS taxpayer help office: WaPo
WSJ's Timiraos, as part of his Fed preview, "Powell’s 18 colleagues who participate in monetary policy meetings have shifted their outlook. A few doves have become hawks, and vice versa. At least one has an eye on possibly succeeding Powell next year."
German lawmakers vote later on a bill that would unlock hundreds of billions of euros to finance defense and infrastructure spending. European weapons manufacturers look set to benefit most. BBG
Trump said he’s authorizing his administration to immediately begin producing energy with coal in a bid to counter China’s economic advantage from the fossil fuel. BBG
Allocation to U.S. stocks saw the biggest drop ever in March with concerns over stagflation, trade wars and end of U.S. exceptionalism driving a "bull crash" in sentiment. Global investors raised their allocation to cash to 4.1% from 3.5%, ending a "sell signal" triggered in December, with the speed of the downturn in sentiment being "consistent with end of equity correction.” RTRS
Over at the Fed, Trump named Michelle Bowman as vice chair for supervision. She’s expected to support a lighter touch on bank regulation. The FOMC starts its two-day policy meeting today. BBG
China hasn’t imported US LNG for 40 days, the longest gap since June 2023, as traders diverted shipments to Europe to avoid Beijing’s tariffs. Buyers are looking to procure supply from Asia-Pacific or the Mideast instead. BBG
Indonesian stocks dropped the most in almost three years, at one point triggering a trading halt, as concerns mounted over weakening consumer spending and the president’s populist measures. BBG
US trade Rep. Jamieson Greer will now handle tariff messaging. Through the past two months of tariff chaos — marked by false starts, confusion and presidential threats followed by quick reversals — US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has largely been out of the picture. He was only confirmed to his role in late February, creating a void filled by White House adviser Peter Navarro and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to handle messaging. BBG
Tariffs/Trade
US President Trump's team reportedly explored a simplified plan for reciprocal tariffs in which they recently debated sorting trading partners into one of three tiers instead of equalising tariff rates with every nation, although the proposal was said to have been ruled out, according to WSJ citing officials.
USTR Greer is imposing a policy process on the reciprocal tariff plan in an attempt to inject order into new tariffs expected next month, after previous announcements roiled markets and fuelled business uncertainty.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly higher after the advances on Wall Street and with light catalysts heading into this week's central bank announcements, although some of the gains were capped as Israel resumed its bombardment of Gaza. ASX 200 was underpinned at the open but then pared the majority of its initial gains with strength in energy and defensives partially offset by losses in tech and consumer discretionary. Nikkei 225 coat-tailed on recent currency moves and retested the 38,000 level to the upside with strength in Japanese trading houses after Berkshire Hathaway boosted its stake in Japan's five largest trading houses. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were ultimately mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark significantly outperforming on tech strength and with Baidu leading the advances after its recent AI reasoning model launch, while the mainland struggled for firm direction in rangebound trade.
Top Asian News
Freeport Gets Final Copper Export Approval From Indonesia
Trump Tariffs to Raise Bar to Invest in the US, JETRO Says
More China Consumers Feel Better Off, Deutsche Bank Survey Shows
BOK Members Tighten Focus on Shoring Up Economic Momentum
Lady Gaga’s Mayhem Tour Spurs Rush for Tickets in Singapore
Big Baidu Blocks Trade as China Tech Jumps: HK Options Snapshot
Indonesia’s Deputy Speaker Denies Finance Minister Stepping Down
European bourses are in the green and toward session highs in an extension of the gains seen on Monday. Focus firmly on upcoming fiscal reform with the vote set for around 13:30GMT in the Bundestag. DAX +1.3% is the regional outperformer with some of the budget beneficiaries such as Thyssenkrupp (+6.2%) near the top of the Stoxx 600.
US equity futures are a touch softer, ES -0.4% & NQ -0.5%, count down to the afternoon's data docket where the latest import/export price data which will feed into both AtlantaFed and PCE. More broadly, the macro focus is on the Putin-Trump call which is set for between 13:00-15:00GMT and then the FOMC on Wednesday. Alphabet (+0.2%) in talks to purchase Wiz for USD 30bln, Tesla (-0.4%) softer as Toronto has excluded it from an incentive program due to US-Canada tensions, Walmart (+0.2%) CEO to sell shares and NVIDIA's (+0.5%) CEO to speak at 17:00GMT/13:00EDT.
Apple (AAPL) has lost an appeal against a regulatory assessment that opens it up to stricter controls in Germany, according to a federal court ruling.
Top European News
Top German court rejected additional attempts to stop the debt brake reform vote.
ECB's Rehn says growth in the Euro area economy is picking up gradually, notes that risk to inflation outlook are two sided.
FX
USD is broadly on the backfoot vs. peers with the exception of the JPY once again as the risk environment in Europe is currently an upbeat one; DXY at the lower-end of a 103.23-61 band.
EUR is firmer and has been a high as 1.0954 vs the USD into the discussed German reform. A peak which is another YTD high, the next target comes via the 9th October peak @ 1.0980.
JPY is continuing to hand back gains with USD/JPY as high as 149.91. Attention is turning to tomorrow's BoJ policy announcement with the central bank expected to stand pat on rates.
GBP flat vs the USD but losing out vs the EUR given the above dynamics. BoE the near-term focus point. Despite the contained action, Cable hit a fresh YTD peak at 1.3004.
CAD has been a touch lower against the USD into the regions inflation metrics, which are expected to show Y/Y CPI in Feb rising to 2.2% from 1.9% on account of the end of the sales tax holiday, according to ING.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1733 vs exp. 7.2364 (Prev. 7.1688).
Fixed Income
Bunds are pressured and at the low-end of a 127.45-127.86 band with yields firmer across the curve which itself is notably steeper. Action which occurs into the fiscal reform vote, the process has begun in the Bundestag with the vote set for 13:30GMT (guidance only).
USTs find themselves essentially unchanged once again into data and as the FOMC countdown begins, in a slim 110-17 to 110-24+ band which is entirely within Monday’s 110-14 to 110-30 parameters. For yields, the curve is once again mixed but today finds itself slightly steeper in-fitting with the bias from European peers.
Gilts are lower and despite a lack of developments are the incremental underperformer with the stronger risk tone, EGB read across, looming OBR deadline and today’s earlier supply all perhaps factoring; supply was strong with a modest bounce seen thereafter.
Commodities
Crude futures continue their geopolitically induced gains, as a slew of Middle East headlines supported benchmarks overnight, both WTI and Brent up around USD 1.0/bbl and at session highs of USD 68.72/bbl and USD 72.19/bbl.
Dutch TTF is pressured ahead of the highly anticipated Trump-Putin call, where they are expected to talk about "power plants" and “land”, as Trump told reporters.
Gold has made its way more convincingly past the USD 3k/oz mark, to a USD 3028/oz ATH.
Base metals in the red with Aluminium underperforming on reports that the EU is set to announce a probe into aluminium imports to “protect the bloc’s industry from an expected surge in cheap imports displaced by US tariffs”,
US President Trump posts on Truth that he is authorising his administration to "immediately begin producing Energy with BEAUTIFUL, CLEAN COAL"
US Energy Secretary Wright said they expect to see a lot of pipelines getting built, according to Fox Business.
Geopolitics: Middle East
Israel's military said it conducted extensive strikes and targets belonging to Hamas in Gaza and the Israeli PM Netanyahu's office said the PM and Defence Minister directed the military to take strong actions against Hamas in Gaza following the group's persistent refusal to release hostages and rejections of the proposals it has received.
Israeli military said Home Command ordered restrictions on civilian activity near the Gaza Strip following strikes against Hamas and Israeli media said the air attack included the assassination of military and political leaders in Hamas. Furthermore, President Trump reportedly gave Israel the green light to resume attacks after Hamas refused to release hostages, according to an Israeli official cited by WSJ.
Israeli media quoted security sources that stated the aim of the resumption of fighting in Gaza is to pressure Hamas to return to the negotiating table and release as many hostages as possible, while security sources added if Hamas does not respond, the operation will expand and will not be limited to air activity only.
Hamas said Israel resumed aggression against civilians in Gaza and is unilaterally ending the ceasefire agreement, while it also stated that Israeli PM Netanyahu and his government decided to overturn the ceasefire agreement, exposing hostages in Gaza to an unknown fate. It was also reported that Israeli strikes killed at least 310 people and senior Hamas security official Mahmoud Abu Watfa was killed in Israeli strikes on Gaza.
US Secretary of State Rubio said without Iran there would be no Houthi threat of this magnitude and that Iran created this terrifying monster which they have to take responsibility for.
US Central Command said its forces continued strikes against Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists, according to Sky News Arabia. It was separately reported that a US spy drone retreated from near Iranian airspace after encountering Iranian F-14 fighter jets and reconnaissance drones, according to NourNews.
Iran rejected and condemned 'reckless, provocative' statements by US President Trump and said it has not violated the UN arms embargo on Yemen or engaged in destabilising activities in the region, according to a letter to the UN Security Council Furthermore, Iran said that the Houthis and Yemeni authorities operate independently in their decision-making and actions.
Yemen's Houthis are at war with the US now and will retaliate against strikes, via Reuters citing Houthi Minister Amer; will not be "dialling down" Red Sea action in response to US pressure or appeals from allies such as Iran.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
US President Trump posted on Truth that he will be speaking to Russian President Putin concerning the war in Ukraine on Tuesday morning and many elements of a final agreement have been agreed to, but much remains.
Russian President Putin reportedly wants all arms sales to be halted in the event of a ceasefire agreement, according to Bloomberg.
Kremlin says Russia President Putin and US President Trump will hold a call between 1-3pm GMT today; call will last as long as is necessary
US event calendar
08:30: Feb. Housing Starts, est. 1.39m, prior 1.37m
Feb. Housing Starts MoM, est. 1.4%, prior -9.8%
Feb. Building Permits, est. 1.45m, prior 1.47m
Feb. Building Permits MoM, est. -1.4%, prior -0.6%
08:30: Feb. Import Price Index MoM, est. 0%, prior 0.3%
Feb. Import Price Index YoY, est. 1.6%, prior 1.9%
Feb. Export Price Index MoM, est. -0.1%, prior 1.3%
Feb. Export Price Index YoY, prior 2.7%
09:15: Feb. Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.5%
Feb. Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.3%, prior -0.1%
Feb. Capacity Utilization, est. 77.8%, prior 77.8%
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The rebound from Thursday’s S&P 500 correction continued yesterday even if the sting in the tail was a fresh decline in US tech mega caps. Today starts what should be a quiet 2-day FOMC meeting alongside an important vote this morning in the Bundestag and a scheduled call between Presidents Trump and Putin.
Before all that, the S&P 500 has now reduced its fall from the highs to -7.63% after closing +0.64% last night. I published a short pack yesterday looking at the history of corrections (link here). On our methodology there have been 60 now since 1928. Including this one so far, 10 have only spent one day in correction territory but if you read DB’s Binky Chadha’s latest piece here he expects this one to continue into early April. Time will tell. It would be easier if tech was performing but yesterday saw the Mag-7 fall -1.10% led by a -4.79% decline in Tesla and a -1.76% fall in Nvidia.
But outside of big tech it was a strong day, with only 44 fallers in the S&P 500 and the equal-weighted version of the index advancing +1.32%. Energy (+1.56%) and consumer staples (+1.55%) led the gains within the S&P and the VIX volatility index fell to its lowest since the end of February (-1.26pts to 20.51). The upbeat tone was helped by the absence of negative trade headlines and was if anything helped by a Bloomberg report that US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer was reinstating a more process-oriented approach ahead of the expected April 2 tariff announcements.
In terms of Germany today, to achieve a two-third majority for the reform of the debt break and the bumper fiscal package, the CDU/SPD/Greens need 489 out of 733 votes and have a buffer of 31 votes. We think it is highly unlikely that many of these will vote against the package. Expect the vote to start at 10am with the result perhaps taking until lunchtime given it's a roll call vote. Assuming it goes through then the next stop is the Bundesrat on Friday where it should also comfortably pass, especially as yesterday Bavaria’s ruling coalition of CSU and Free Voters confirmed they would support the changes in the Bundesrat. Therefore, the German Constitutional Court (GCC) is the most likely unknown but again the expectations are for there to be no objections with more rulings going in favour of the package being allowed to go to a vote yesterday. Ahead of the vote, the DAX (+0.73%), STOXX 600 (+0.79%), and FTSE100 (+0.56%) continued their gains from Friday, while bonds across the continent actually recovered after their recent sell-off with yields on 10yr bunds (-5.8bps), OATs (-7.8bps) and BTPs (-8.0bps) all seeing sizeable declines.
By contrast, US Treasury yields saw more modest moves with 10yr US yields falling -1.4bps to 4.30% but 2yr yields rising +2.8bps to 4.05%. The latter came as December fed fund futures rose by +4.6bps with 60bps of Fed cuts now priced in by year-end. That’s the most hawkish that market pricing has been this month, having traded at 90bps of cuts early in the Asian session last Tuesday morning.
Those moves came amid a mixed bag of US data. This included a softer-than-expected headline US retail sales print (+0.2% m/m vs the expected +0.6% m/m), the homebuilder sentiment index falling back to its August 2024 local lows of 39 and the empire manufacturing survey disappointing (-20.0 vs -1.9 expected). January’s retail sales were also revised to -1.2% m/m (previously -0.9% m/m). However, February retail control growth was +1.0%, six tenths above expectations even if there was a couple of tenths downward revision to the prior month. That brought the 3-month annualised growth of retail control, which feeds more directly into GDP, to a solid +3.8%, alleviating some of the increasing concerns over the US consumer outlook.
Turning to commodities, Monday saw Brent crude oil (+0.69%) rise to a two-week high of $71.07/bbl following the US strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen over the weekend. Oil has edged another +0.28% higher overnight following Israeli military strikes in Gaza, signaling a potential breakdown of the almost two-month ceasefire with Hamas. Meanwhile, copper (+1.63%) rose to its highest level since last May after the stronger monthly China activity data that we reported yesterday.
Gold (+0.55% to $3,001/oz) closed above $3,000 for the first time ever yesterday, after first breaking that threshold intra-day on Friday, as investors continue to rotate away from the US dollar and find perceived safe havens amidst the heightened policy uncertainty. Indeed, the dollar index (-0.34%) yesterday fell to its lowest level since October.
Asian equity markets are mostly trading higher this morning with the Hang Seng (+2.14%) leading gains and rising to three-year highs, followed by the Nikkei (+1.27%). Mainland Chinese equities are struggling to gain as much momentum with the CSI (+0.32%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.14%) both edging slightly higher. Meanwhile, the KOSPI (+0.04%) is swinging between gains and losses alongside the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.05%). S&P 500 (-0.32%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.47%) futures are both retreating with US yield. Meanwhile, yields on USTs are around a basis point lower across the board.
And now for the day ahead, as a reminder Germany’s leaders will be voting in the Bundestag today at 9AM GMT, with the roll called vote finishing possibly up until 12:30PM GMT. We’ll also get more US Feb data on industrial production numbers, building permits and housing starts. Canadian CPI is the other highlight. And President Trump’s phone call with President Putin is expected in the morning US time, with President Trump posting yesterday evening that “Many elements of a Final Agreement have been agreed to, but much remains.”
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 03/18/2025 - 08:21
Conor McGregor: Ireland Is "Overrun" With Illegal Immigrants
Conor McGregor: Ireland Is "Overrun" With Illegal Immigrants
https://modernity.news/2025/03/17/conor-mcgregor-ireland-is-overrun-with-illegal-immigrants
During a St Patrick’s Day visit to The White House, UFC legend Conor McGregor performed a verbal takedown on the Irish government for running an “illegal immigration racket.”
?itok=c-SVMAZM
“Our government has long since abandoned the voices of the people of Ireland,” McGregor urged.
“Our money is being spent on overseas issues that have nothing to do with the Irish people, he continued, adding “The illegal immigration racket is ravaging our country.”
NEW: Conor McGregor rips the Irish government for abandoning their people to import illegal immigrants.
"Our government has long since abandoned the voices of the people of Ireland."
"Our money is being spent on overseas issues that have nothing to do with the Irish people. The… https://t.co/aJvyM4iRaz
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1901656188565311644?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
“There are rural towns in Ireland that have been overrun in one swoop, that have become a minority in one swoop,” McGregor asserted, calling it a “travesty.”
“The 40 million Irish Americans need to hear this. Because if not, there will be no place to come home and visit,” the former lightweight and featherweight champion emphasised.
McGregor was invited to visit the White House by President Trump, and spent time with him in the Oval office.
HAPPY SAINT PATRICK'S DAY FROM CONOR MCGREGOR AT THE WHITE HOUSE! 🍀🇺🇸 https://twitter.com/TheNotoriousMMA?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1901630081719558439?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
🚨 CONOR MCGREGOR TO TRUMP: "I'll tell you what. You work ethic is inspiring."
The Irish need their own version of Trump so they can save their country.https://t.co/ZOPgLn7bHP
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1901706850929635545?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
President Donald J. Trump 🍀 Conor McGregor https://twitter.com/TheNotoriousMMA?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— President Donald J. Trump (@POTUS) https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1901714538384548258?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
As we have previously highlighted, the UFC star has persistently spoken out against mass migration, and has been made a target for it by the authorities.
In response to McGregor’s comments, Irish premier Micheal Martin said the claims were “wrong,” and do not reflect the views of the Irish people.
St. Patrick’s Day around the world is a day rooted in community, humanity, friendship and fellowship.
Conor McGregor’s remarks are wrong, and do not reflect the spirit of St. Patrick’s Day, or the views of the people of Ireland.
— Micheál Martin (@MichealMartinTD) https://twitter.com/MichealMartinTD/status/1901665582778343888?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
McGregor responded.
Conor McGregor responds to Micheál Martin comments about McGregor not representing Ireland.
“Dublin has went from one of the safest cities to one of the most dangerous” https://t.co/fhlJu9301O
— Real News Éire (@real_eire) https://twitter.com/real_eire/status/1901727265891012611?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Irish people seems to agree with McGregor.
Conor McGregor DOES speak for the People of Ireland, which is why he will become President of Ireland later this year unless you attempt to undemocratically BLOCK him from Running.
The People of Ireland demand an end to the Mass Immigration that you have forced upon them!
🇮🇪
— Cillian (@CilComLFC) https://twitter.com/CilComLFC/status/1901689647748481032?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Not what it looks like in the comments is it Micheál?
👇
— Nydon (@Nydon) https://twitter.com/Nydon/status/1901718985911021879?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Your policies in government have put the Irish people on course to being a minority in our country for the first time ever. Don't talk to us about the "spirit of St. Patrick's Day" https://t.co/i99yBXQwS8
— Keith Woods (@KeithWoodsYT) https://twitter.com/KeithWoodsYT/status/1901679805843530230?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Then why is everyone calling him The People's Taoiseach back in Ireland?
— David@TOPCHEFS 🌐 (@TOPCHEFSIE) https://twitter.com/TOPCHEFSIE/status/1901692637809172746?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Conor McGregor’s remarks are correct and they are so popular with the people of Ireland, you all pivoted to ‘tough on immigration’ stances in order to get elected very recently.
— Fella Writes (@fellawrites) https://twitter.com/fellawrites/status/1901686433783402715?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
🇮🇪🚨
Irish media like good state-funded puppies are pushing the Conor McGregor "does not speak for Ireland" mantra
The same media who support open-borders, hate-speech laws, & push "Diversity" in our face 24/7
These media shills along with FG & FF do not speak for Ireland 🇮🇪 https://t.co/UBwOlRyQRD
— Paul (@PeterPaulGuy) https://twitter.com/PeterPaulGuy/status/1901686125552398350?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
* * *
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via https://pauljosephwatson.locals.com/support
.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 03/18/2025 - 08:05
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/conor-mcgregor-ireland-overrun-illegal-immigrants
Professors Claim Musk's Cybertruck Reminiscent Of Apartheid-Enforcing Vehicle In South Africa
Professors Claim Musk's Cybertruck Reminiscent Of Apartheid-Enforcing Vehicle In South Africa
A pair of Rice University professors say Elon Musk’s Tesla Cybertruck is reminiscent of a vehicle that “patrolled and terrorized” black townships in apartheid South Africa.
?itok=xSGcKLzT
As such, Professors Vivian Chenxue Lu and Nana Osei-Opare https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2025/03/tesla-cybertruck-protests-vandalism-elon-musk.html
that the Cybertruck’s similarities to the Casspir military vehicle (pictured, below) — intentional or not — “blur the boundaries between the battlefield and the public street.”
“[T]he Cybertruck’s harsh, sharp edges remind us […] of something from the past: the larger armored personnel vehicles that patrolled streets throughout Musk’s youth in apartheid South Africa,” the professors write.
“By the 1990s, the Casspir had become an iconic global symbol of apartheid oppression.”
?itok=nsHPu_J0
Lu and Osei-Opare do their very best to link Musk to the Casspir, noting he “likely” would have seen the vehicle in his youth … around the time of the Soweto uprising.
However, Musk never had to travel in the Casspir, as he departed South Africa a year before he could be conscripted into the South African Defence Force.
Still, the Casspir was used by the United States military during the second Gulf War and invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, and is now utilized by various police departments in the U.S.
Lu and Osei-Opare note the Casspir was part of the “spectacular use of force” shown in Ferguson, Missouri during Black Lives Matter protests.
Although the Cybertruck is “not designed for actual combat,” the professors further claim the vehicle capitalizes on the “romanticized frontier violence and militarism” of American pop culture:
Its marketing, for example, explicitly taps into the current apocalyptic visions pervading both right- and left-wing political imaginaries—from climate disaster to nuclear, civil, and class warfare. Heralded as being “built for any planet,” it showcases a Bioweapon Defense Mode and a “built-in hospital grade HEPA filter” that “helps provide protection from 99.97% of airborne particles.” One third-party Tesla modification company, aimed at civilian and government clients, sells Cybertruck upgrades so it can run on jet fuel, diesel, biodiesel, and electricity.
The idea that a Cybertruck could become an artillery vehicle is not just hypothetical. Unsanctioned by Tesla, various users, ranging from a YouTuber to Chechen forces fighting for Russia in Ukraine, have modified a Cybertruck by mounting machine guns to its bed, turning it into a lightly armored weaponized machine.
“Whether or not Musk or the Cybertruck’s designers made a conscious decision to draw inspiration from the Casspir,” the authors conclude, the vehicle’s “pseudo-futuristic vision is militaristic, stainless-steel fortified, masculinist, individualistic, and unforgiving.
“Whether through Casspirs or the Cybertruck, apartheid’s militarized, cultural, and psychological legacy roams our streets.”
According to her faculty page, Lu’s (pictured) work focuses on the “cultural politics of profit, transnational commerce, ethnonationalism, and diaspora.”
?itok=8KrXBNKz
Osei-Opare has written about “black radicals’ relationship to Marxist-Leninism,” “labor and labor agitation in postcolonial Africa,” and “the insertion of white supremacy and racism as an analytical category into the Cold War theoretical paradigm.”
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 03/18/2025 - 06:30