The NWO Religion: How The Woke Postmodern “Faith” Glorifies Evil
The NWO Religion: How The Woke Postmodern “Faith” Glorifies Evil
https://alt-market.us/the-nwo-religion-how-the-woke-postmodern-faith-glorifies-evil/
It’s not as if it was ever a secret: The very core of the woke movement is fundamentally rooted in evil. The general definition of “evil” being a conscious act of deception and destruction, the deliberate victimization of others for the sake of personal power, pleasure and gain. When I try to imagine what a religion of evil might look like I consistently come back to the far-left woke movement along with its rabid mantras, agendas and self righteous narcissism.
The majority of human beings have an inherent sense of good and evil; we often refer to this condition as conscience or moral compass. The intuitive inner voice that guides us and warns us when we stray into “the dark side” is a product of archetypal knowledge – What psychologist Carl Jung described as a set of inborn complexes or symbols that tap into our deepest emotions and sense of identity. All our social interactions are in some way affected by these archetypes.
These ideas are universal, present in nearly every culture in every part of the world at every point in time in the world. Societies with zero social interaction and separated by thousands of years and thousands of miles all have these symbols and principles present in their mythology, academia and ideologies. The building blocks of everything from language, to mathematics to religion and morality are influenced by inherent psychological imprints present in our minds from the moment of birth.
I have written extensively about these inborn characteristics since 2006 because their existence is a fascinating window into the human soul. Numerous philosophers, anthropologists and mind scientists have spent their careers studying archetypes and their meanings.
Some people (myself included) view archetypes as scientific proof of creative design; proof of God. Fatalists take it further and argue that they are a kind of genetic “pre-programming” or divine software that controls everything we think and do. However, because archetypes share dual identities and competing concepts, this means we are not necessarily “programmed” like robots. Rather we are given the ability to choose and with choice comes the free will to do good, or evil.
For other people (globalists, leftists and run of the mill psychopaths) free will means the ability to choose not to believe in archetypes, or morality or even objective truth. They choose nihilism, but this is only part of the problem. The defiance of truth goes beyond some misguided attempt to be free from societal judgment.
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Instead, evil people define freedom without responsibility as the ultimate state of being – In other words, they view the capacity to inflict suffering and destruction without regard as an evolutionary advantage. They think their lack of humanity makes them superhuman.
It’s no mistake that leftists and woke activists are obsessed with power dynamics; their new religion ensures that they cannot see the world any other way. For woke ideologues everything revolves around which groups hold power and how they can take that power for themselves. Thus, questions of right and wrong never enter into the equation. Power is the end that justifies all means.
They see moral order as an artificial construct that oppresses them (because they want to do evil without consequence). Moral relativism at its core requires the victimization of others as a form of rebellion against order. Of course, the injustice of this mentality is hard to dismiss but leftists have a way around that.
There’s no shortage of woke activists who have displayed a contempt for the law and for morals when they’re being judged, but they will joyfully embrace morals and the law when they think these things can be used against their enemies. Hypocritically, leftists like the idea of rules, but only for other people. Rules are a shield to prevent retribution from the people they victimize. That’s the only purpose rules serve for the woke.
To summarize, leftists are TOTAL relativists. The rules do not apply to them. The law does not apply to them. Morality does not apply to them. Conscience is non-existent for them (or it exists but they have trained their minds to ignore it). Biological reality does not apply to them. They think they are special and that boundaries should only exist for the people they don’t like.
This is pure evil. There’s no other rational way to look at it.
But where does this demonic belief system come from? Well, there are many theories. The term “Postmodernism” comes up often and is a philosophy from the latter part of the 20th Century that rejects ideas of objective and universal truth. Postmodernism is cited as an ideological offspring of Marxism; a smug rebranding of the socialist agenda for consumption by the academic elite.
Another source that I’ve covered over the years is “Futurism”, which was a precursor movement to the socialist regimes in Europe in the 20th Century. Futurists believe that all old ideas are inferior and must be constantly replaced with new ideas in order for society to progress. It emphasizes the inversion of conservatism; a war on the accomplishments and constructs of previous generations. That is to say, the past has no value to them because it gets in the way of the new order they want.
They believe that society must exist as an ever churning revolution against tradition, principles and reason. Chaos is the result. In many ways they even revere it. If I were to define Postmodernism and Futurism in practical terms, both represent a psychopathic love affair with chaos. For without objective truth there can be no order, and without order evil prevails.
It should be noted that both Postmodernism and Futurism started as artistic movements within the elitist fold. Both started as mind games for deconstructing archetypes and then they were adapted by academia and ideological zealots into the realm of politics. If the inborn meaning of archetypes can be deconstructed, then all the principles of our civilization can be deconstructed.
I’ve mentioned this quote many times and I’ll use it again here because it perfectly encompasses the problem posed by relativists – As Charlie Sheen states at the end of the movie Platoon:
“Somebody once wrote, ‘Hell is the impossibility of reason.’ That’s what this place feels like. Hell…”
This is the world that leftists and globalists are trying to build right now: A hell on Earth. A world without reason. But what would motivate people to embrace such a monstrous social inversion? That’s where Luciferianism comes in. Luciferianism is in part a religion; an ideology of self worship that venerates pride and believes SOME humans are gods trapped by the oppressive boundaries of nature and society. It’s a common trait among narcopaths and psychopaths; the internal lust for godhood is a tale as old as the Bible.
Lucifer (Satan) was a servant entity that sought to surpass God and rule the universe by his own standards. The Garden of Eden is based on the idea of humanity coveting the power of knowledge without responsibility and losing respect for creation. The Tower of Babel is a tale of man’s foolish urge to centralize and control creation, building great monuments to himself in a vain effort to reach the divine.
The theme pops up over and over again, not just in Christianity but also in secular mythology. The idea that we should not “play God” is present in popular media ever since the era of Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein. Luciferians declare the opposite: They say yes, they will play god, and anyone that tries to stop them is an “inferior” that deserves to be eliminated.
In this way the trio of evils combines to form the New World Order religion. Postmodernism is a war on objective truth, especially as it applies to human society. Futurism is a war on the past, cultural heritage and the conservation of traditional values and structures. Luciferiansim is a war on God; the denial of natural law and the refusal to accept that there are limits to human understanding and control.
When a person adopts all of these beliefs together they are capable of any conceivable atrocity. There is nothing they won’t do to achieve the destruction of the very fabric of our current civilization. There is no crime they will not rationalize. No gruesome action they will not justify. After all, they are “gods”, but gods of nihilism and death.
Of course, a REAL God has the power to create, and that’s something woke adherents are incapable of. They know how to steal, copy, repurpose and tear things down, but they will never have the capacity to create anything new. They are only gods in their little minds, but the rest of us have to suffer because of their delusions.
The war on truth and reason is a strategy to invert the natural order. It puts power in the hands of moral relativists because a society that favors relativism will automatically favor people without moral restraint. The more vicious and predatory you are, the easier it will be to get ahead. Today we might try to discourage or punish this kind of behavior, but as time passes it is increasingly normalized.
The one thing evil people are most desperate to prove is that everyone else is just like them, given the right circumstances. Turn everyday life into hell and all morality goes out the window, at least in theory.
We need to ask, what happens when evil becomes acceptable and good becomes passe? In the end you get a black void of despair and the absence of direction or purpose. Imagine a future where your principles and conscience are used against you, holding you back while people that have no principles are given all of life’s rewards. The currency of your society becomes psychopathy and the lunatics run the asylum.
And what’s really horrifying is that we’re not very far from this Orwellian nightmare. In some ways, it’s already upon us. This is the intended religion of the future – A “faith” built on the hatred of all creation, in which self worship is divine and reason is considered a punishable heresy.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 04/17/2025 - 23:40
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/nwo-religion-how-woke-postmodern-faith-glorifies-evil
Chinese Satellite Imaging Firm Helping Houthis Target US Warships
Chinese Satellite Imaging Firm Helping Houthis Target US Warships
Washington is now accusing China of getting in bed with the Iran-backed Shia Houthis of Yemen, who have long waged a war against Red Sea shipping, including attacks on US warships and Israel.
The US State Department on Thursday issued allegations centered on Chinese firm, Chang Guang Satellite Technology, saying it is directly supporting attacks by Houthi fighters against American interests. This firm is well-known to be close to the CCP government, and is already under Western sanctions.
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"We can confirm the reporting that Chang Guang Satellite Technology Company Limited (CGSTL) is directly supporting Iran-backed Houthi terrorist attacks on U.S. interests," State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce told a press briefing.
The statement was issued in the wake of a Financial Times report which said the firm is supplying the Houthis with satellite imagery used in targeting.
"The United States has raised our concerns privately numerous times to the Chinese government on Chang Guang Satellite Technology Co Ltd’s role in supporting the Houthis in order to get Beijing to take action," a US officials was quoted in the report as saying. But these warnings were reportedly "ignored".
CGSTL has long been described as close to the Chinese government, and has been a central firm in the country's military-civil fusion program, which requires private sector companies to provide assistance to the government when called upon. The Chinese Embassy in Washington has denied any awareness of these new allegations concerning support to the Houthis. Interestingly, public company documents present the firm's purpose as providing "earthquake services".
And the state connections are clear...
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According to background on the company via https://www.ft.com/content/628b404b-2a24-4853-8f3c-9caad408ef8f
:
The Chinese company was established in 2014 as a joint venture between the provincial government in Jilin and a branch of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Changchun, the province’s capital.
“Chang Guang is one of a handful of ‘ostensibly’ commercial Chinese satellite companies that are in fact deeply embedded in the military-civil fusion ecosystem, supplying global surveillance capabilities to both civilian and military customers,” said James Mulvenon, an expert on the Chinese military and intelligence services at Pamir Consulting.
It previously came under US sanctions during 2023 in connection with the Ukraine war, having been accused of giving high-resolution satellite imagery to Wagner Group, Russia's most well-known and controversial mercenary firm.
The FT report indicates that CGSTL had Chang Guang 100 satellites in orbit as of last year, and there are ambitious plans achieve 300 circling the earth by the end of 2025, which would allow for snapshots of any location on the planet each ten minutes.
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If it does have a role in Yemen, this will further damage already severely strained US-China relations mid the tariff war, given the Houthis have frequently directly targeted US warships, including the carrier USS Harry S. Truman with drone and missile attacks. The USS Carl Vison carrier is about to joint the Truman in patrolling regional waters, also as tensions heat up with Iran.
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Thu, 04/17/2025 - 23:15
Exxon Shares Post Second Largest Gain Since 2023 After DOGE Seeks To Cut Clean Energy Projects
Exxon Shares Post Second Largest Gain Since 2023 After DOGE Seeks To Cut Clean Energy Projects
Shares of Exxon had their 2nd largest pop since the regional banking crisis of 2023 (second only to last week's record surge) after the https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/doge-comes-for-clean-energy-putting-exxon-and-occidental-projects-at-risk-565bd42f?mod=hp_lead_pos10
that the Energy Department is eyeing steep cuts that could wipe out nearly $10 billion in clean-energy funding, jeopardizing major projects with Exxon Mobil and Occidental Petroleum.
Or, as the market appears to see it, a cost saving measure for the likes of Exxon, who will no longer have to endeavor to spend on low-margin "green" businesses.
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Internal memos show the cuts would scrap government contracts tied to hydrogen, carbon capture, and energy storage, with thousands of DOE jobs on the chopping block. Part of President Trump’s broader push to slash federal spending, the move is driven by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by adviser Elon Musk. The agency has already axed numerous contracts and federal jobs.
The $10 billion figure spans two DOE offices and reflects broader DOGE-driven cancellations under review, https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/doge-comes-for-clean-energy-putting-exxon-and-occidental-projects-at-risk-565bd42f?mod=hp_lead_pos10
.
“No final decisions have been made and multiple plans are still being considered,” a DOE spokeswoman said.
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The Energy Department, responsible for everything from nuclear weapons oversight to energy R&D, is weighing steep funding cuts, including pulling support from four hydrogen hubs in Democratic-leaning states, while continuing to fund three in GOP-leaning regions. Over 250 clean-tech projects—spanning EV charging, solar, wind, and more—could be scrapped.
that roughly 9,000 of the department’s 17,500 jobs are deemed essential. More than 1,200 employees have resigned or been sidelined—many tied to diversity efforts. Another round of buyouts is underway.
Federal grants and loans have largely been frozen since February, when Trump halted funding tied to Biden-era laws, including the Inflation Reduction Act—legislation he’s criticized as the “green new scam.”
Only a few projects, such as Michigan’s Palisades nuclear plant, have received funding.
Jigar Shah, former head of the DOE’s Loan Programs Office, warned this risks driving clean-tech investment overseas: “That just makes me so sad... now they’re receiving the opposite message.”
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 04/17/2025 - 13:40
Powell's Chicago Speech Shows He's Guessing Again...
Powell's Chicago Speech Shows He's Guessing Again...
Yesterday at the Economic Club of Chicago, Jerome Powell doubled down on his tariff-pocalypse fetish, warning that Trump’s trade levies could spark “higher inflation and slower growth.”
Sound familiar?
In 2021, he called 9.1% inflation “transitory” while M2 money supply exploded 42%.
That delusion triggered a market rout and crushed Main Street.
Now, Powell’s playing Nostradamus again, fixating on hypothetical tariff shocks while ignoring deflationary red flags like $60/barrel oil prices.
The Fed’s job isn’t to predict trade wars - it’s to react to data. Powell’s flunking that test, again.
Powell’s April 16 speech hyped Trump’s 10-25% tariff proposals as a looming inflation bomb, claiming they’re “larger than anticipated” and could derail the Fed’s 2% target.
Sure, tariffs might bump some prices, but Powell’s acting like they’re the whole story.
Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude is at $60 - multi-year lows - slashing transport and production costs.
That’s a deflationary sledgehammer, yet Powell barely nods at it.
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The data screams caution, not panic.
Consumer confidence cratered to January 2021 lows in March 2025. Small-business uncertainty spiked to near-record highs in February.
First-quarter GDP growth is slowing, with consumer spending “modest” despite car sales.
These are signs of an economy wheezing, not overheating.
Yet Powell’s 4.3% interest rates, frozen since mid-2024, are squeezing harder than a bear market vise.
Trump’s Truth Social rants for rate cuts might be brash, but they’re not wrong.
Powell’s tariff obsession mirrors his 2021 blunder: betting on guesses over facts.
Back then, he ignored money supply and CPI spikes.
Now, he’s blind to oil prices and softening demand, chasing trade-war ghosts.
The Fed has tools—producer price indices, commodity trackers—to spot real inflation.
If tariffs bite, hike rates then.
Preemptively choking growth on “what-ifs” is malpractice.
History honors Fed chairs who act, not prophesize.
Volcker smashed 1980s inflation by reading the data, not tea leaves.
Powell’s stuck in model-land, leaving markets jittery—S&P 500 dropped 2% post- speech—and Main Street exposed.
Oil’s at $60, confidence is tanking, and Powell’s still dreaming of tariff-driven doom.
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Ditch the guesses and drive the damn car.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 04/17/2025 - 13:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/powells-chicago-speech-shows-hes-guessing-again
"Luxury Turns Late-Cycle": After LVMH Miss, Hermes Stumbles Too
"Luxury Turns Late-Cycle": After LVMH Miss, Hermes Stumbles Too
The European luxury sector, tracked by Goldman via GSXELUXG, came under continued pressure on Thursday after French luxury giant Hermes added to the gloom with a disappointing Q1 earnings report, following LVMH Moet Hennessy's https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/magnitude-deterioration-wall-street-stunned-lvmhs-earnings
just a day earlier. Most notably, a slowdown in Chinese demand is rippling through the industry — prompting one Goldman analyst to warn: "Luxury is late cycle."
Hermes' first-quarter earnings report was mixed to say the least, with growth in Europe, Japan, and the Americas, but disappointing results in Asia and key segments like Watches and Perfumes.
Here's a snapshot of the first quarter report with estimates provided by Bloomberg:
Total sales growth: +7.2%, missed Bloomberg Consensus of +7.89%
Revenue: €4.13B, +8.5% y/y, just shy of €4.16B estimate
Segment Performance:
Leather Goods: +10.0% (vs. est. +10.8%) — Slight miss, still strong double-digit growth
Watches: -10.0% (vs. est. -3.9%) — Deep miss, weakest segment
Perfumes: -0.5% (vs. est. +7.06%) — Sharp disappointment
Silk & Textiles: +4.5% (vs. est. +3.64%) — Beat
Ready-to-Wear & Fashion: +7.2% (vs. est. +9.34%) — Moderate miss
Regional Breakdown:
France: +14.2% (vs. est. +10.3%) — Strong outperformance
Europe (ex-France): +13.3% (vs. est. +13.1%) — In line
Japan: +17.2% (vs. est. +12.7%) — Significant beat
Asia Pacific: +1.2% (vs. est. +4.02%) — Weak
Asia (total): +3.7% (vs. est. +5.39%) — Soft demand in China likely a drag
Americas: +11.0% (vs. est. +8.55%) — Strong outperformance
Axel Dumas, Executive Chairman of Hermes, released comments about the challenging macroeconomic environment:
"In a complex geopolitical and economic context, the house is strengthening its fundamentals more than ever: uncompromising quality, creativity at the heart of all development, and vertical integration, a guarantee of preserving unique savoir-faire. Despite a high comparison basis in the first quarter, the group achieved solid growth in sales, thanks to the trust of its customers and the commitment of the teams, whom I thank warmly."
Hermes' uninspiring quarterly report builds on LVMH's first-quarter results yesterday, which served as a https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/magnitude-deterioration-wall-street-stunned-lvmhs-earnings
. The miss was broad-based across segments and regions, led by sliding demand in key markets, including China and the U.S. Fashion and Leather Goods—the group's growth engine—also stumbled, signaling concerns about a wider slowdown in the high-end consumer space.
"Magnitude Of Deterioration": Wall Street Stunned By LVMH's Earnings https://t.co/96uM1CoZQA
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1912114964627595688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Commenting on Hermes, but more importantly, the broader industry, Goldman analyst Natasha de la Grense warned, "Luxury is a late cycle."
Here's more from the analyst:
The Luxury sector is failing to perform this morning (GSXELUXG flat) despite three relatively reassuring prints and watch exports in positive territory in March. We think this is partly a function of positioning (Hermes, Brunello and Moncler all consensus longs) but also reflects wariness around the forward.
First the good news: Brunello was bang in line, while Moncler and Hermes beat in the areas of the business that usually matter most (Moncler brand retail, Hermes Leather Goods). All three said that they are not seeing a noticeable change in trend through April. And all three sounded relatively calm on the direct impact of tariffs – the message has unanimously been that there will be no change production footprints, strategy is unaltered (Moncler still sees the U.S. as a growth opportunity) and any price increases would take place in the U.S. in H2 (Brunello quantified this at 3-4% which feels manageable).
However, feedback this morning is that Q1 is backward looking and Luxury is late cycle – people pretty much unanimously expect U.S. demand to deteriorate even if this is not happening just yet. Moncler acknowledged risks to U.S. underlying demand looking forwards. In addition, the misses in Hermes' non-leather divisions has made some wonder if the business will be more cyclical than in the past as these categories have grown in the mix. Meanwhile, everyone understands that March Swiss Watch exports were helped by stocking up (exports to the US +14%) while other major markets were weak (China -12%).
Big picture, the takeaway from this week is that the outperformers last year (high end, strong brand momo) are still putting up better growth. Coupled with some potential pull forward of demand in watches/jewellery, that does bode well I think for Richemont cFX. Interestingly, unlike Moncler/Hermes/Brunello, our data suggests Richemont is a consensus short (with bears worried about higher gold costs, CHF headwinds and management's tone on outlook). That said, the other takeaway from reactions today is that the market doesn't care too much about Q1 beats which don't tell us anything about what's to come.
Bottom line: conviction levels low in this space right now. We are net sellers on the desk this morning. I haven't changed my view that Hermes and Moncler are relatively better places to be but I still think the whole space is going down. On Hermes, I expect Leather to accelerate in Q2 (as supply constraints drop out) and note that anyone on a list for a bag is expected to spend on other product categories first. Beauty and Watches are small and can be quite volatile, relating to timing of shipments and launches – I'm not overly concerned about the misses here. Meanwhile at Moncler, the strong performance with the Chinese cluster really stands out and speaks to excellent brand momo. Moncler also accelerated in Japan which is impressive post LVMH comments. Pushback on Moncler this morning is we are now entering low seasonality for the business/stock – I wonder if that's actually helpful to have a smaller proportion of FY sales vulnerable to near-term shocks to demand. Remain cautious on Kering and Burberry based on weak brand momo, more limited pricing power to pass on tariffs and idiosyncratic risks. On Kering, we still think FY25 consensus EBIT is too high and expect some comments on H1 margin outlook could drive further downgrades. On Burberry, we see negative read across from Moncler/LV comments on the South Korean cluster. I'm also concerned that the scarf/trench push will be less relevant into S/S months.
Commentary from other analysts:
Barclays (overweight)
Hermes reported a slight miss on its first-quarter sales update, analyst Carole Madjo writes, though all regions saw robust growth
Growth in its leather goods division should be driven by a price increase and volume contribution in 2025, so it should pick up throughout the year
CIC Market Solutions (neutral)
Hermes saw a solid start to the year which confirms its status as a safe haven, says analyst David Da Maia
Its unique status is "highly valuable" in a backdrop that has become very uncertain, and has been reflected in its premium to the luxury sector
Bernstein (outperform)
Tough comparisons in China weigh heavily, but should get better as the year progresses, says analyst Luca Solca
Category mix confirms a slower consumer demand environment; watches again are the weakest link in the Hermes lineup
Stifel (buy)
Lighter-than-expected growth in Asia Pacific overshadowed solid growth in the Americas, France, Europe ex-France and Japan, writes analyst Rogerio Fujimori
Share-price weakness offers opportunity to buy ahead of growth re-acceleration for leather goods in the second and third quarters
Citi (neutral)
Hermes continues to outperform with resilient sales, says analyst Thomas Chauvet, noting continued double-digit growth in all regions but Asia ex-Japan
Notes that U.S. tariffs will be fully offset with pricing from May 1
Jefferies (buy)
Hermes's first-quarter organic growth confirms the resilience of the group's model, even if it may be slightly below buyside ambitions, says analyst James Grzinic
The 2025 price rise in leather will have helped, but also provides a good sense for Hermes's pricing power at a time when tariffs, as well as euro strength, are likely to represent mounting gross margin challenges
Bloomberg Intelligence
Hermes's 1% Asia Pacific-excluding-Japan sales gain in the first quarter dragged otherwise robust low double-digit constant currency growth elsewhere, writes analyst Deborah Aitken
Slowed China store traffic in April could see more trimming to consensus
For the first time in decades, Hermes's market cap exceeded LVMH's this week.
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The theme sticking here is Goldman's "Luxury is late cycle."
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 04/17/2025 - 13:00
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/luxury-turns-late-cycle-after-lvmh-miss-hermes-stumbles-too
UnitedHealth Stock Dumps On Earnings Miss & Outlook Downgrade
UnitedHealth Stock Dumps On Earnings Miss & Outlook Downgrade
UnitedHealth Group shares crashed in premarket trading after the company reported weaker-than-expected Q1 results and issued a significant downward revision to its full-year guidance, citing higher-than-expected Medicare needs.
Here's a summary of UHG's mixed first-quarter earnings report:
Adjusted EPS came in at $7.20, up from $6.91 y/y, but missed the $7.27 Bloomberg Consensus estimate.
GAAP EPS was $6.85, compared to a loss of $1.53 per share y/y.
Revenue totaled $109.58B, up 9.8% y/y, but below the $111.56B estimate.
Highlights:
UnitedHealthcare revenue: $84.62B, up 12% y/y (beat est. $83.87B).
Optum revenue: $63.9B, up 4.7% y/y (missed est. $67.17B).
OptumRx: $35.13B, +14% y/y (beat est. $34.29B).
OptumHealth: $25.31B, down 5.3% y/y (missed est. $28.89B).
OptumInsight: $4.63B, +2.8% y/y (missed est. $5.1B).
Margins & Ratios:
Medical Care Ratio: 84.8%, better than 85.8% est.
Operating Cost Ratio: 12.4%, down from 14.1% y/y (beat est. 12.5%).
Operating Margin: 8.3%, slightly below 8.45% est.
UHG CEO Andrew Witty stated in a press release:
"UnitedHealth Group grew to serve more people more comprehensively but did not perform up to our expectations, and we are aggressively addressing those challenges to position us well for the years ahead, and return to our long-term earnings growth rate target of 13 to 16%."
UHG slashed its full-year profit forecast...
New Adjusted EPS guidance: $26.00–$26.50, slashed from prior $29.50–$30.00 vs. $29.73 est.
A sharp downside surprise: New EPS guidance: $24.65–$25.15
UHG wrote that these two factors drove its revised outlook:
Heightened care activity indications within UnitedHealthcare's Medicare Advantage businesses, which became visible as the quarter closed, far above the planned 2025 increase which was consistent with the elevated levels in 2024. This activity was most notable within physician and outpatient services
Unanticipated changes in the profile of Optum Health members impacting planned 2025 reimbursement due to unexpectedly minimal 2024 beneficiary engagement by plans exiting markets. In addition, a greater-than-expected impact to current and new complex patients from the ongoing Medicare funding reductions enacted by the previous administration.
"The company believes these factors to be highly addressable over the course of this year as well as it looks ahead to 2026," the company noted.
Shares of UnitedHealth crashed 19% in premarket trading, wiping out most of the gains recorded since February's low of around $450 a share.
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UHG has faced ongoing turmoil since the December killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. The company is now working to repair its image amid growing public outrage over the healthcare system.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 04/17/2025 - 07:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/unitedhealth-stock-dumps-earnings-miss-outlook-downgrade
"Supply Towers Over Last Year": DC Listing Service Warns
"Supply Towers Over Last Year": DC Listing Service Warns
Listing service Bright MLS summed up Washington, D.C.'s housing market in one troubling line: "Supply is towering over last year." That's been the trend for the last few months, with https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dc-housing-market-swamped-supply-growing-rapid-pace-recession-fears-soar
, now numbering in the hundreds of thousands—and the D.C. metro area appears to be heading toward a combination of housing and labor market pains.
Here are three key takeaways from MLS's weekly report (for the week ending April 13) on the housing markets in Northern Virginia, D.C., and Maryland. The common denominator across all three regions: supply—and a lot of it. Inventory has surged this spring, well above levels seen over the last three years:
Contracts keeping pace with last year. The Bright MLS service area had 6,709 new purchase contracts for the week ending April 13. With contracts roughly flat, ticking up 0.8% from the same week in 2024, new contracts have now exceeded last year for five consecutive weeks. Market headwinds have not fully discouraged buyers as mortgage rates continue to see declines, but it may be a bumpy spring season depending on movement in the economy.
List prices plateau at the record high. The Mid-Atlantic median list price has held at a record high of $449,900 for three consecutive weeks, marking a 4.6% increase over the same week last year. Last year's peak list price occurred in May. Whether this year's peak arrived earlier than usual, or will spring ahead in future weeks, is yet to be seen.
Supply is towering over last year. There were 36,112 active listings at the end of the week, a 27.8% increase compared to the same time in 2024. While inventory is showing encouraging growth this year, buyers looking for specific price points or home types may find the market tight. Supply still has a long way to go before reaching pre-pandemic levels seen in years like 2019.
A snapshot of MLS' coverage area shows that active listings were up 27.8% for the week ending April 13 compared to the same period last year. Week-over-week, listings rose by 3.1%.
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In Washington, DC, active listings were up 47.5% versus the same period one year ago. Week-over-week, listings rose 3.9.%
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Visualizing the data...
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A growing number of homeowners in the D.C. area are listing their properties just as the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed above 7% last week.
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Coupled with news of 280,000 DOGE-related federal layoffs and declining consumer sentiment amid escalating trade war headlines, the outlook for the D.C. swamp has been darkening.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 04/17/2025 - 06:55
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/supply-towering-over-last-year-dc-listing-service-warns
Trump Confronts Economic And Geopolitical Reality
Trump Confronts Economic And Geopolitical Reality
https://amgreatness.com/2025/04/16/trump-confronts-economic-and-geopolitical-reality/
By the time this is published, everything may have changed, and that is to be expected. Throughout his career, well before and since becoming a politician, Trump has explicitly stated that he does not think it is always a good strategy to be predictable. And while markets love predictability, sometimes markets, and the systems propping them up, need disruption. This is such a moment.
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Nobody should deny that the anxiety is genuine. An older friend of mine, well into his 70s, still working but ready to retire, is wondering how he and his wife will survive if their savings are wiped out. That’s true for all of us, but it begs the question: What if the painful restructuring we may be about to endure, and which may last for many years, is necessary to avoid an even worse fate?
Trump’s abrupt escalation of import tariffs goes well beyond violating the principles of comparative advantage, but we can start there. “https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/comparativeadvantage.asp
” is not all it’s cracked up to be. Repeated in business schools as if it were gospel since the 1980s, it goes something like this: “Wool is cheaper in Scotland, and wine is cheaper in France, so France should sell their wine to Scotland, and Scotland should sell their wool to France.” Everybody wins. Period. That’s the extent of it. That is the essence of free trade theory.
In the real world, though, policies that rely on “comparative advantage” doctrine as their moral justification have gotten pretty ugly. While overall economic growth may be maximized when every nation exports products that it produces most cost-effectively, the local impacts are not always benign. Nations that produce coffee at competitive global prices, for example, end up with valuable cropland converted from food production to coffee plantations. These coffee plantations are typically owned by multinational corporations that repatriate profits to low-tax nations elsewhere while buying off a small local elite that streamlines the regulatory environment. Meanwhile, the nation becomes dependent on imports for everything except coffee, and even the coffee ends up priced out of reach for the average citizen. Replace “coffee” with any specialty product, and all too often, the “gains of trade” translate on the ground into nations with seething, destitute populations dependent on accumulating debt and foreign aid.
These examples aren’t restricted to foreign nations, nor are they restricted to commodities. While American multinationals moved manufacturing overseas, in the process destroying millions of jobs and thousands of communities in America, it wasn’t just cheap wool, cheap wine, and dirt-cheap flat-screen TVs that were pouring into the country in exchange. We offshored our production of steel, our chip manufacturers, our pharmaceutical industry, and much more.
And even that devastation was tolerated for decades because its effects were mostly felt in what we now call rust belt states. Our service economy and tech sectors boomed, along with what was left of manufacturing, satiating a majority of the population that loved buying cheaper foreign imports. But this whole scheme could never go on forever. America’s trade deficit in 2024 https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-december-and-annual-2024
.
To balance the trade deficit, there is what economists call the “current account.” If dollars flow overseas for us to purchase foreign imports in excess of foreign nations spending dollars to purchase our exports, the surplus dollars are repatriated in the form of foreigners bidding up the prices for assets they purchase in America. A slight oversimplification would be that trade deficits equate to cheap flat screens and unaffordable homes. But there is another reason America has huge trade deficits. It floods the world with dollar-denominated transactions, and by permitting foreigners to buy American assets, we effectively collateralize our currency. And so long as America is for sale in this manner, that helps sustain the dollar as a hard currency.
That comes in handy. For https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-deficit/
, Americans have logged federal budget deficits. So far, the dollar’s status as the dominant transaction and reserve currency of the world gives America’s federal government the ability to borrow money by selling Treasury Notes.
This is all well known and rehashed beyond the need to elaborate further. So, why are people acting like this was sustainable? How long can the global economic model rest on American trade deficits funding the military and industrial development of nations that, in some cases, aren’t even allies, with all of it balanced through foreign purchases of American assets? And how long will international demand for dollars finance federal budget deficits?
To understand why this had to come to a head, consider federal budget trends in recent years.
In 2019, the last year of Trump’s first term, the https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56324
, with interest of just under $1.0 trillion.
What changed? While the COVID pandemic was used to justify massive infusions of stimulative federal cash into the economy, much of it probably necessary, why hasn’t spending been reduced since the pandemic’s impact has been over for at least two years? Are we supposed to just expect massive federal budget deficits year after year? Is it sustainable to log a federal budget deficit that has grown from an alarming $900 billion in 2019 to $1.9 trillion in 2025, more than twice as much?
A roughly accurate summary of the economic reality we confront is federal budget deficits of $2 trillion per year and trade deficits of $1 trillion per year. Trade deficits translate into growing foreign ownership of American assets. https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/interest-expense-avg-interest-rates/
, an increase of $13 trillion in just six years. Interest payments in 2024 were $1.1 trillion, and the average interest rate had risen to 3.3 percent.
“Average” interest rate requires explanation. Ten-year treasury notes https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/033115/what-are-differences-between-treasury-bond-and-treasury-note-and-treasury-bill-tbill.asp
. Interest rates have risen over the past few years. Imagine if that continues, and $35 trillion (or more) in treasury notes mature and are reinvested at 4.4 percent. That would raise the annual federal interest payment on the national debt to $1.5 trillion.
At what point does this become a crisis?
And if we wait until there is another financial crisis, will we be able to borrow our way out of it again? No wonder Trump’s team is cutting bureaucracy and hoping to eliminate massive entitlements fraud. By every metric that matters, the size and obligations of the federal government have exploded in the last six years, and it can’t go on.
Which brings us to the geopolitical reality we must confront: the https://amgreatness.com/2019/06/22/how-america-will-stop-chinas-long-march-to-rule-earth-and-space/
in 2024. The Chinese invest this surplus in Treasury Notes but also use it to purchase strategic assets in the United States. And how has China treated us as we finance the meteoric rise of its economy?
Here is https://x.com/AMcCarthyNY/status/1909849497049444538
of comments made by noted investor and businessman Kevin O’Leary on CNN last week.
“I do business with China; they don’t play by the rules. They’ve been in the WTO for decades, and they have never abided by any of the rules they agreed to when they came in. They cheat, they steal, they steal IP, I can’t litigate in their courts, they take product, technology, they steal it, they manufacture it and sell it back here. This is not about tariffs anymore. Nobody has taken on China yet, not the Europeans, no administration, for decades. As someone who actually does business there, I’ve had enough. I speak for millions of Americans who have IP that has been stolen by the Chinese. I have nothing against the Chinese people, but the government cheats and steals and finally an administration that puts up and says, ‘enough.’”
O’Leary thinks Trump should impose 400 percent tariffs on China. Maybe that will get their attention. He also suggested that America, with what is still the biggest economy and biggest domestic market on earth, may not have this much economic leverage in the future. He’s right. Now is the time to exert economic pressure on China because a decade from now, it will be too late.
The Trump administration recognizes three realities that softer heads and wishful thinkers try to either deny or bury in nuance.
(1) We are in a cold war with China, and if we don’t step up, we will lose.
(2) We have hollowed out our manufacturing prowess, and that must change. Fast.
(3) Federal spending is out of control; the trends are unprecedented and must be reversed.
This is the rest of the story. Tariffs are just the beginning salvos in a fight we can’t avoid any longer.
Back in 1986, Herbert Stein, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, in reference to US federal debt, https://www.cepweb.org/if-something-cannot-go-on-forever-it-will-stop/
, “If something can’t go on forever, it will stop.” That was 40 years ago, when America’s epic debt binge was still in its first decade. Since then, it has gone on and on, and as the numbers indicate, it has intensified in the last few years.
It will stop. The only question is when and how. One must forgive the anxiety that is triggered in so many because of our current administration’s attempts to confront the unsustainable. But for those calling themselves economists who now, with unwarranted certainty, decry Trump’s bold gamble as unnecessary or foolish, less charitable sentiments might be appropriate.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 04/16/2025 - 23:25
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-confronts-economic-and-geopolitical-reality
Trump Signs Order Barring Illegal Immigrants From Receiving Social Security
Trump Signs Order Barring Illegal Immigrants From Receiving Social Security
(emphasis ours),
President Donald Trump signed a https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/preventing-illegal-aliens-from-obtaining-social-security-act-benefits/
on April 15 directing several federal agencies to take measures to prevent Social Security payments from going to ineligible people such as illegal immigrants and fraudsters.
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was directed at the Social Security Administration inspector general, the Social Security commissioner, the attorney general, and the secretaries of labor, health and human services, and homeland security.
Meanwhile, the commissioner is directed to cooperate with the attorney general to expand the SSA’s full-time fraud prosecutor program specifically targeting identity theft and beneficiary-side fraud to at least 50 U.S. Attorney Offices by Oct. 1.
The memo also “establishes a Medicare and Medicaid fraud prosecution program in 15 U.S. Attorney offices,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said during a press briefing.
Department heads are ordered to prioritize the placement of prosecutors in both programs to the offices whose jurisdiction has been determined by Homeland Security to cover the top 10 largest known populations of illegal immigrants.
The memo also directs the inspector general of the Social Security Administration (SSA) to investigate earnings reports for individuals over the age of 100. Earlier this year the Department of Government Efficiency reported that hundreds of eligible Social Security recipients were found to be well over a century old.
The inspector general is also required to investigate instances of mismatched Social Security records to combat identity theft.
The SSA will be asked to consider resuming the implementation of civil monetary penalties on individuals found to have engaged in Social Security fraud.
“These taxpayer-funded benefits should be only for eligible taxpayers, and President Biden should think about what he did in his last term, which is allow tens of millions of illegal people into our country, many of whom were fraudulently receiving these benefits,” Leavitt said.
This latest executive action was made shortly after the White House announced that more than 6,300 illegal immigrants had been https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/us-strips-benefits-from-thousands-of-criminal-aliens-those-on-terror-watchlist-5840491
of Social Security and other federal benefits. Those individuals had been paroled into the United States by the Biden administration during or after 2023 and were flagged as a national security risk, holding a criminal record, or listed in the FBI’s terrorist screening database. Their parole, which shielded them from deportation, ended on April 8.
Those individuals’ Social Security numbers were reclassified by the SSA into an Ineligible Master File to further ensure they can never access federal aid again.
The SSA also announced on April 15, before Trump’s signing of the memorandum, that it https://www.theepochtimes.com/bright/social-security-launches-new-id-technology-to-prevent-fraud-5838419
new identification technology. Specifically, it targets suspicious activity in telephone claims and bank changes by analyzing anomalies and patterns within a person’s account and requiring in-person identity proofing at a Social Security office if irregularities are detected.
The changing of bank information over the phone accounted for approximately 40 percent of direct deposit fraud, according to the SSA, with the Inspector General’s Office estimating that $33.5 million in benefits for nearly 21,000 beneficiaries was misdirected between January 2013 and May 2018.
The SSA has implemented the Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service’s Account Verification Service (AVS) to secure instant verification, but these two entities are not the only ones collaborating.
Work to oust illegal immigration by https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/irs-agrees-to-share-data-with-homeland-security-on-illegal-immigrants-5838704
the flow of money has also begun between the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the IRS, using the sharing of taxpayer data to target possibly dangerous illegal immigrants.
“Information sharing across agencies is essential to identify who is in our country, including violent criminals, determine what public safety and terror threats may exist so we can neutralize them, scrub these individuals from voter rolls, as well as identify what public benefits these aliens are using at the American taxpayer expense,” a DHS spokesperson told The Epoch Times.
Anne Johnson, Chase Smith, and Jack Phillips contributed to this report.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 04/16/2025 - 22:35
EPA Chief Sounds Alarm On Rogue Climate Group Launching Sulfur Dioxide Balloons To Geo-Engineer Earth
EPA Chief Sounds Alarm On Rogue Climate Group Launching Sulfur Dioxide Balloons To Geo-Engineer Earth
Rogue climate activists in Northern California are launching balloons filled with sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere in an effort to manipulate the Earth's temperature. In exchange, the climate startup behind the operation sells "cooling credits" priced at $30 for a subscription or $5 to offset 1 ton of carbon dioxide. The startup's unregulated operations are causing a major stir and have drawn the attention of EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin.
"Make Sunsets is a startup that is geoengineering by injecting sulfur dioxide into the sky and then selling "cooling credits." This company is polluting the air we breathe. I've instructed my team that we need to quickly get to the bottom of this and take immediate action," Zeldin wrote on X.
Make Sunsets is a startup that is geoengineering by injecting sulfur dioxide into the sky and then selling “cooling credits.” This company is polluting the air we breathe. I’ve instructed my team that we need to quickly get to the bottom of this and take immediate action. https://t.co/9b6xPzMf4v
— Lee Zeldin (@epaleezeldin) https://twitter.com/epaleezeldin/status/1912224960803746021?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Luke Iseman, the former director of hardware at Y Combinator, launched Make Sunsets a few years ago with the https://makesunsets.com/pages/who#:~:text=Make%20Sunsets%20is%20backed%20by,Pioneer%20Fund%2C%20and%20angel%20investors.
of Boost VC, Draper Associates, Pioneer Fund, and angel investors.
Make Sunsets takes its name from the striking sunsets caused by high-altitude sulfur dioxide particles, like those observed after the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, which temporarily lowered global temperatures by roughly .2°C for about a year.
Allowing rogue activists to play God with the climate is a disaster waiting to happen. These aerosols increase Earth's albedo (reflectivity), causing temporary global cooling and potentially disrupting jet stream behavior.
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Here's more from the https://www.epa.gov/so2-pollution/epa-seeks-information-make-sunsets
:
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Air and Radiation (OAR) submitted a demand for information to a startup company calling themselves "Make Sunsets," which is launching balloons filled with sulfur dioxide (SO2) seeking to geoengineer the planet and generate "cooling" credits to sell. This issue was initially identified in 2023 during the last Administration, but no action was taken to find out more about this questionable startup and activity.
Make Sunsets is already banned in Mexico. Their website states they want to scale this activity significantly and have already conducted over 124 deployments. It is unclear where the balloons are launched and where the SO2 is from. Furthermore, it is not known if the company has been in contact with any state, local or federal air agencies. Thus, EPA is submitting a demand for information to get answers and plans to take additional actions as necessary.
A review of public records shows that Luke Iseman and Andrew Song manage operations at Make Sunsets. The entity is also listed as the founder of Insituform Technologies, Inc.
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An address listed on Make Sunsets' publicly available profile shows a mansion in Northern California.
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Iseman's X page is full of Make Sunsets' latest operations:
10,000 Cooling Credits successfully deployed to stratosphere today via 6 balloons. This guy got put in RV jail while I got another tank of hydrogen to make sufficiently buoyant https://t.co/rjOjBXQ7du
— luke iseman (@liseman) https://twitter.com/liseman/status/1894954487674200223?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Happy New Year! First balloon launches of 2025. We had a special guest, Nick from https://twitter.com/freethinkmedia?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
, aka Hard Reset, who helped us launch balloons filled with SO2 and Hydrogen. Follow them for the upcoming video.
We launched 3 balloons that day. Here's the 1st 🎈🧵 https://t.co/C5dL8QZT3b
— Make Sunsets (@MakeSunsets) https://twitter.com/MakeSunsets/status/1882565381841375420?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
another 16 pounds of sulfur dioxide successfully delivered to stratosphere today! average altitude: 103,800 feet☁️🌋 https://t.co/4G9AS5fZEq
— luke iseman (@liseman) https://twitter.com/liseman/status/1881855537694069123?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
He even boasted about his donation to a far-left climate organization called "Just Stop Oil."
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Just Stop Oil has been a rogue group targeting Tesla with repeated attacks.
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Perhaps unregulated solar geoengineering in the hands of leftist climate activists isn't such a great idea.
We're confident the rabbit hole of this group's associations goes much deeper—and even a quick look at the founders' social media profiles suggests they're idelogically aligned with the de-growth climate cult that has undermined Western economies while giving China a clear runaway with its coal-powered factories.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 04/16/2025 - 22:10
Federal Judge Blocks Trump's Freeze On Climate, Infrastructure Grants
Federal Judge Blocks Trump's Freeze On Climate, Infrastructure Grants
A federal judge on April 15 blocked the Trump administration from freezing the disbursement of funds for climate and infrastructure grants, finding that the pause in disbursing funds was illegal.
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Nonprofits suing the administration over the freeze presented evidence that the indefinite freeze of already-awarded money was arbitrary and capricious, in contravention of federal law, U.S. District Judge Mary S. McElroy https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25898821-mcelroy-preliminary-injunction-in-ira-case/
in a 63-page ruling that entered a preliminary injunction against the U.S. Department of Agriculture and five other agencies.
Officials with the agencies earlier this year froze funds awarded under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, two laws passed by Congress and signed by former President Joe Biden. They cited President Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 order that directed all agencies to pause the disbursement of money through the laws in order to review whether the funds were consistent with the law and with Trump’s agenda.
The Woonasquatucket River Watershed Council and other groups that have awards sued, alleging in part that the freeze violated the Administrative Procedure Act, which prohibits arbitrary and capricious actions and lets courts set such actions aside.
The freeze “blatantly arbitrary and capricious, including because it fails to account for the significant reliance interests of grantees and other recipients who reasonably expect—and need—to be able to draw on open awards of funding in order to provide services,” the groups https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25898842-woonasquatucket-river-watershed-council-motion/
in a motion for an injunction.
Government lawyers https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25898843-opposition-in-woonasquatucket-river-watershed-council-v-usda/
the court that Congress gave agencies the discretion to select among eligible recipients of the funding allocated by the laws, “and therefore Defendants are likewise entitled to temporarily pause funding for current recipients to determine whether they wish to redirect that funding elsewhere.”
“Plaintiffs’ contrary theory—that this Court should compel agencies to continue funding existing grants, even when those grants conflict with the President’s priorities—would raise significant separation of powers concerns,” they said.
McElroy said that courts cannot decide whether a president’s policies are sound, but must weigh in on the lawfulness of the policies when constitutionally required.
“Agencies do not have unlimited authority to further a President’s agenda, nor do they have unfettered power to hamstring in perpetuity two statutes passed by Congress during the previous administration,” she wrote.
The judge also said that agencies are likely able to pause funding on a case-by-case basis, but those “narrower powers cannot justify the broad exercise of authority” that they asserted.
The White House did not respond to an early morning request for comment.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 04/16/2025 - 21:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/federal-judge-blocks-trumps-freeze-climate-infrastructure-grants
Report Claims N.Korea Supplying 100% Of Russian Artillery Shells Used In Ukraine
Report Claims N.Korea Supplying 100% Of Russian Artillery Shells Used In Ukraine
Reuters has cited a UK-based open-source analysis firm to claim that Russia's military is now relying almost on entirely on artillery shells produced and supplied by North Korea along the Ukrainian front.
"Between September 2023 and March 2025, four Russian-flagged vessels made 64 trips transporting nearly 16,000 containers from North Korea to Russian ports, according to satellite data analyzed by the U.K.-based Open Source Center (OSC)," the Tuesday https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/NORTHKOREA-RUSSIA/lgvdxqjwbvo/
. "The organization estimates the shipments included between 4 million and 6 million artillery shells."
In 2023, when US intelligence and Western allies began calling out alleged North Korean ammo transfers to Russia, the Kremlin rejected the allegations at the time, saying there was "no proof" of such activity.
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But since then it's become clear that North Korea has actively contributed to Russia's military needs, including sending some 10,000 DPRK troops to assist Russian troops in retaking Kursk territory, on Russian soil.
War analysts have long acknowledged that Russian forces are able to fire at a rate of some ten times more than the Ukrainians along front line positions. This despite Europe and the US over years donating billions worth of weaponry and ammo to Kiev.
This also ties into Ukraine's recent assertions saying that there is an 'axis' of enemies it is https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/north-korea-supplying-up-to-100-of-russian-artillery-shells-used-in-ukraine-reuters/ar-AA1CYl6A
:
“Without help from the DPRK, the Russian army shelling of Ukrainian defensive positions would have been cut in half,” Ukraine’s military intelligence agency GUR told Reuters.
“Without Chairman Kim Jong Un’s support, President Vladimir Putin wouldn’t really be able to prosecute his war in Ukraine,” added Hugh Griffiths, the former coordinator of the UN panel monitoring North Korea sanctions.
Starting last summer, Western media began highlighting that North Korea was sending containers to Russia that could hold as many as 4.8 million artillery shells. And specifically South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik made the first such accusation in an June interview with https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-14/kim-sent-russia-millions-of-artillery-shells-south-korea-says
.
Seoul's intelligence services spotted at least 10,000 containers being shipped from North Korea to Russia, according to Won-sik. Pyongyang has also sent dozens of ballistic missiles, reportedly for use against Ukraine.
In exchange for the ordnance Russia is allegedly giving North Korea oil, satellite technology as well as tech to improve their tanks and aircraft. North Korea's cheap labor, while ethically abhorrent in nature, is proving useful in the fast manufacture of weapons.
Critics argue that artillery coming from North Korea is "substandard" and far less advanced than western produced artillery, leading to a decrease in effect on target. However, 5 million rounds is an incredible arsenal regardless of technology - and more than enough boom to support a large-scale ground offensive.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 04/16/2025 - 21:20
IRS Asked To Revoke Harvard's Tax-Exempt Status Which Shields Almost $500 Million Per Year
IRS Asked To Revoke Harvard's Tax-Exempt Status Which Shields Almost $500 Million Per Year
The Trump administration has directed the Internal Revenue Service’s top legal official to consider revoking Harvard University’s tax-exempt status, according to the https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/04/16/trump-harvard-tax-exempt-irs/
, citing three people familiar with the matter. The move represents a significant escalation in the administration’s conflict with the Ivy League institution over its handling of antisemitism and diversity practices.
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The request was made to Andrew De Mello, the IRS’s acting chief counsel, on Wednesday by officials at the Treasury Department. De Mello has not yet decided whether to act on it, according to the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to publicly discuss internal deliberations.
Of note, Harvard - which has a $53.2 billion endowment - dodged "at least $465 million" in 2023 due to the tax exemption, according to a https://archive.is/CB41h
analysis cited by the Free Beacon's Peter J. Hasson
A Bloomberg analysis last year found that Harvard's 501c3 status lets it avoid just under **$500 million** in taxes every year https://t.co/FznTtNU2Rh
— Peter J. Hasson (@peterjhasson) https://twitter.com/peterjhasson/status/1912609090271916260?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The directive follows the administration’s broader efforts to pressure higher education institutions it views as “woke,” the sources said. Earlier this month, the Trump administration demanded sweeping authority over Harvard’s admissions, hiring, and curricular decisions, as well as its response to student activism related to the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Harvard rejected those demands on Monday. Hours later, the administration announced it would freeze more than $2 billion in federal funding to the university.
Harvard is a tax-free hedge fund with $53 billion in semi-liquid assets, and that doesn’t include its tax-free real estate, which is also worth billions. And it still has the gall to demand even more taxpayer money. If schools are going to act like hedge funds, they should be… https://t.co/DCmRWDAxUY
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1912182829800132810?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The next day, President Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social, “Perhaps Harvard should lose its Tax Exempt Status,” and falsely claimed the institution has supported terrorism.
The request to revoke Harvard’s tax-exempt status was first reported by CNN. While nonprofit status is granted to educational institutions under federal tax law, it comes with restrictions - particularly a prohibition on certain political activity. Legal experts say there is no public evidence that Harvard has violated those rules.
According to federal law, the authority to investigate or alter a nonprofit’s tax status rests solely with the IRS, and the president is explicitly prohibited from ordering or influencing such actions against individual taxpayers or entities.
Former House GOP leader Newt Gingrich thinks it's just the beginning... “I think they’re going to go after a whole bunch of them,” said Gingrich. "I’m not sure why we need to be funding people who aggressively refuse to give up a variety of values and structures that most Americans don’t agree with."
The Trump administration has taken steps in recent months to increase political control over the IRS. De Mello was appointed acting chief counsel in March after the administration demoted a career IRS lawyer who had reportedly resisted efforts to access confidential tax records in pursuit of undocumented immigrants.
In a separate development, Gary Shapley, appointed by Trump as acting commissioner of the IRS, reportedly told staff that revoking the tax-free status of certain nonprofit groups flagged by Republican lawmakers was one of his top priorities. That includes organizations that oppose Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and a Georgia-based political group aligned with Democratic candidates, according to people briefed on the conversations.
Rep. Jason T. Smith (R-MO), chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, has called on the IRS to strip nonprofit status from groups opposing Israel’s war effort.
The IRS has previously faced controversy over its treatment of politically active nonprofit groups. In 2013, the agency acknowledged using politically loaded keywords to scrutinize organizations seeking tax-exempt status. Although that process initially drew criticism for targeting conservative groups, an inspector general’s investigation later revealed that liberal organizations were also subjected to increased scrutiny.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 04/16/2025 - 20:55
Trump Admin Directs Judges To Auto-Deny Asylum Without Hearings
Trump Admin Directs Judges To Auto-Deny Asylum Without Hearings
In a decisive move to address the nation’s overwhelmed immigration system, the Trump administration has rolled out a new policy directing immigration judges to swiftly dismiss asylum claims deemed legally deficient, a long-overdue measure to alleviate frivolous claims and legal loopholes that has paralyzed the US immigration court system, which has a backlog of nearly four million cases.
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The policy, which took effect April 11, empowers judges to deny asylum applications early in the process if they clearly lack a legal basis, bypassing the lengthy and often unnecessary “merits hearing” phase that can drag out cases for years.
“Adjudicators have the duty to efficiently manage their dockets,” wrote Sirce Owen, acting director of the Executive Office for Immigration Review (EOIR), in the policy memo. “It is clear from the almost four million pending cases on E.O.I.R.’s docket that has not been happening.”
For years, critics of the current system have argued that America’s generosity has been exploited by migrants who file dubious asylum claims solely to remain in the U.S. for years while awaiting hearings. Critics of America's broken immigration system have long argued that it rewards economic migrants who game the asylum process by applying without any real chance of qualifying, then using the backlog to remain in the country for years - often receiving work permits and taxpayer-funded benefits in the meantime.
Judges are now encouraged to take “all appropriate action to immediately resolve cases” that lack a viable legal path - a move that could clear out tens of thousands of meritless claims clogging the courts.
According to the Justice Department memo cited by the https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/16/us/immigration-asylum-judges-policy.html
, "No existing regulation requires a hearing when there are no factual issues in dispute, including when the facts underlying the legal claim for asylum are undisputed, but the claim itself is legally deficient."
The move comes as immigration courts face record-breaking backlogs. Despite efforts to increase the number of immigration judges, staffing has not kept pace with the rising number of illegal border crossings and asylum applications.
With only about 700 judges managing nearly four million cases, each judge now faces a crushing caseload. The Trump administration has proposed adding more judges, but in the meantime, streamlining the process is seen as critical.
The policy could be especially effective in deterring fraudulent claims. Many migrants who arrive at the southern border file asylum claims not because they fear persecution, but because they know the system allows them to stay in the country for years regardless of merit. By allowing judges to quickly reject obviously invalid claims, the policy could reduce the incentive to abuse the system.
And of course, a Democrat judge will block this in 3, 2, 1...
Speaking of which - the move to block migrants at the front door comes as a Democrat judge, Indira Talwani, https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/federal-judge-halts-trump-admins-deportation-half-million-biden-parolees
the Trump administration to require individual hearings for roughly 500,000 migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela (CHNV) before deporting them.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 04/16/2025 - 20:30
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-admin-directs-judges-auto-deny-asylum-without-hearings
Texas Track Meet Killer's Family To Tap $400k Support Fund For New Home
Texas Track Meet Killer's Family To Tap $400k Support Fund For New Home
As the online fundraiser for confessed Texas track-meet killer Karmelo Anthony continues raking in cash, his family has told a judge that they plan to use it to move into a different residence and hire security. This news comes after the judge slashed his original $1 million bond to just $250,000 -- which means his family only needed to come up with about $25,000 to set him free on Monday.
Earlier this month, 17-year-old athlete Austin Metcalf was stabbed in the heart at a district UIL meet in Frisco, Texas. According to the statements given to police by witnesses, the trouble began when Metcalf told 17-year-old Karmelo Anthony of Centennial High School that he was in the wrong team's tent and should leave. Anthony is said to have grabbed his bag and opened it before saying, https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fundraiser-killer-texas-track-meet-stabbing-rakes-140000
Per witnesses, Metcalf touched, grabbed or pushed Anthony, who suddenly produced a knife and delivered a single fatal stab to the chest before running off, later telling police he did it because "he put his hand on me, I told him not to."
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Anthony's family quickly launched https://www.givesendgo.com/HelpKarmelo
about Anthony's supposed victimhood by racists -- the family has repeatedly raised the goal. At the moment, 13,000 donors have contributed more than $440,000, and the "goal" is now a half-million.
This is an actual comment on the Karmelo Anthony fundraiser. https://t.co/fFBviJG2hB
— Viva Frei (@thevivafrei) https://twitter.com/thevivafrei/status/1912223840408658090?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
During a hearing earlier this week, prosecutors challenged Anthony's request for a lower bond amount. They asked why his father, Andrew Anthony, couldn't simply tap the hundreds of thousands of dollars donors had given him. Andrew Anthony said, in addition to being used for his son's legal defense, the money would also be used to pay for security and move to a different residence in a purported defensive measure after the family was allegedly showered with threats. Anthony's lawyer acknowledged that "it would be disingenuous to say there isn’t money... But it is not a bond fund. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14610267/Karmelo-Anthony-family-reveal-plans-legal-defense-fund.html
."
A family spokesperson said the Anthony's home address had been shared online, making them fearful of exiting their home, and that "graphic and racist" threats had been leveled, including "images of "black children with knives stuck in their head," https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14610267/Karmelo-Anthony-family-reveal-plans-legal-defense-fund.html
reports.
Frisco track meet stabbing suspect Karmelo Anthony does not address reporters as he is released from the Collin County Jail. Anthony's bond was reduced from $1M to $250K on Monday. https://t.co/0NPAmD6VtQ
— FOX 4 NEWS (@FOX4) https://twitter.com/FOX4/status/1911893425374564690?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Despite Anthony's confession to police, Republican Judge Angela Tucker slashed his bond from $1 million to $250,000, citing his age, lack of a criminal record and his community ties. He was released that same afternoon, forbidden to leave his house without Tucker's permission, and mandated to wear an ankle monitor. Tucker is the first black judge in Collin County, Texas, which lies on the northeast side of Dallas. After lowering Anthony's bond, she switched her X https://x.com/attorneytucker?lang=en
to "private" mode.
"Every Texan deserves the right to defend themselves when they reasonably fear for their life," Karmelo's defense lawyer, Mike Howard, told reporters. "Self-defense is a protection that applies to each and every one of us. There are two sides to every story. Karmelo is a 17-year-old kid and an excellent student....This is a tragedy all the way around for both families."
Karmelo Anthony is going to win his case and then need private security the rest of his life because these demons don’t believe a black person should be able to protect themselves.
— The Reckoning (@4Evashook) https://twitter.com/4Evashook/status/1911828282988757065?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Karmelo Anthony is SAFE at home.
This moment is a reminder that a community united can never be divided.
The journey ahead is long, but today—we celebrate a victory for justice, for family, and for the power of people coming together to protect our youth.
Thank you to everyone… https://t.co/CjLTkhbIiL
— Minister Dominique Alexander (@niquealex) https://twitter.com/niquealex/status/1911906350247948742?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 04/16/2025 - 19:40
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/texas-track-meet-killers-family-tap-400k-support-fund-new-home
To Fly, You'll Soon Need A REAL ID: What To Know
To Fly, You'll Soon Need A REAL ID: What To Know
(emphasis ours),
On May 7, 2025, millions of Americans will be unable to use their government-issued photo identification—usually, a driver’s license—to board a domestic flight, enter a federal government building, or visit a nuclear power plant. It is part of a plan enacted by Congress 20 years ago that is finally coming to fruition.
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“REAL ID” is a term coined by the REAL ID Act of 2005. The law was passed a few years after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, in response to security concerns about the identities of people visiting possible terrorist targets.
Many of the 9/11 terrorists https://archives.fbi.gov/archives/news/testimony/fraudulent-identification-documents-and-the-implications-for-homeland-security
to obtain IDs before boarding the passenger planes they then hijacked and crashed into buildings.
A REAL ID is issued by a state after a more thorough check of a person’s identity. Applicants for a REAL ID must provide proof of lawful status in the United States. A REAL ID is distinguished from a regular driver’s license by the presence of either a black or gold star in the top corner of the card.
For Americans, REAL IDs will be most important for boarding flights. Beginning on May 7, 2025, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) will accept only state IDs that are either REAL IDs or REAL ID-compliant documents. Many Americans without a REAL ID, hence, will be unable to travel by air.
Here is some more information about the plan.
Obtaining a REAL ID or Alternatives
All U.S. citizens eligible for state ID cards are also eligible for REAL IDs. Foreign nationals, by contrast, may be eligible for REAL IDs, depending on the type of immigration status they have in the United States.
The application process for a REAL ID varies from state to state. However, applicants usually must go to a state’s Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) office or the equivalent, as when applying for a driver’s license. Ahead of the May 7 deadline, some state DMV offices are offering special REAL ID appointments to help convert existing IDs to REAL IDs.
Applying for a REAL ID requires proof of U.S. citizenship (e.g., a birth certificate, a naturalization/citizenship certificate, an unexpired passport, a passport card, or a consular report of birth abroad).
Foreign nationals will likely need to provide their passports and evidence of lawful status in the United States, such as a permanent resident card (i.e., a “green card”), visa sticker in their passport, or other documentation issued by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), such as an I-94 record of admission or I-797A Notice of Approval.
The length of a REAL ID’s validity for a foreign national may be limited by the length of the authorized stay in the United States, requiring more frequent reapplication. Tourists visiting on B-1/B-2 status are ineligible for REAL IDs.
Additionally, anyone applying for a REAL ID will need to present an original Social Security card issued by the Social Security Administration or alternative documents that show his or her Social Security number (e.g., a W-2 form). Moreover, he or she will need to provide at least two proofs of an address in that state or jurisdiction. Acceptable proofs may vary from state to state.
Most REAL IDs will be driver’s licenses or state-issued ID cards for nondrivers. Because of the citizenship verification requirements, REAL IDs will likely cost more to obtain than regular driver’s licenses or state IDs. Non-REAL IDs may still be issued by states and recognized by them, but will be invalid for federal purposes after May 7 and will likely contain a notation reading “Not Valid for Federal Purposes” on the plastic card.
If someone does not have a REAL ID, or does not wish to obtain it, there are other acceptable forms of identification that person may use to board domestic flights. These are known as “REAL ID-compliant” documents. They include unexpired U.S. passports and passport cards, enhanced driver’s licenses issued by some states, foreign passports, Trusted Traveler Program cards (e.g., Global Entry), and Tribal ID cards, https://www.tsa.gov/travel/security-screening/identification
.
A REAL ID alone is not enough to fly internationally; a passport booklet will still be required.
It is unclear whether mobile driver’s licenses, which are digital certificates that can be downloaded to the Apple Wallet and Google Wallet programs, will be accepted for REAL ID purposes.
Some states, such as Georgia and California, allow people to download mobile licenses in addition to their physical cards and use them interchangeably. As of November 2024, states can https://www.dhs.gov/real-id/real-id-mobile-drivers-licenses-mdls
to have their mobile driver’s licenses recognized for REAL ID purposes, although DHS has not yet published the list of states that have been granted waivers, if any.
Illegal Immigrants
Beyond bureaucracy and higher fees, U.S. citizens and lawfully present foreign nationals are likely to face minimal difficulties with the REAL ID program. Most illegal immigrants, by contrast, will not be eligible for the program.
Any foreign national who entered the United States without inspection, or who was lawfully admitted but remained beyond the expiry of his or her stay (without applying for a new status or seeking asylum), will not be able to obtain a REAL ID, which requires proof of valid lawful status. Without REAL IDs, these persons will be unable to fly in the domestic United States or enter federal facilities.
Many states, particularly those led by the Democratic Party or progressive politicians, issue identification documents to illegal immigrants that are nearly indistinguishable from those issued to U.S. citizens. REAL ID, however, will create some distinction between them, which could be the basis for immigration enforcement actions.
As a result, many states will continue to issue IDs that are “Not Valid for Federal Purposes,” which illegal immigrants and U.S. citizens alike may obtain for daily use. Additionally, some municipalities, such as New York City, now https://www.nyc.gov/site/idnyc/about/about.page
to all persons regardless of their lawful status in the country.
However, there are two exceptions.
Recipients of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) or the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program are classes of illegal immigrants who are specifically eligible for REAL IDs. Section 202 of the REAL ID Act specifically allows for REAL IDs for persons with “approved deferred action,” which DHS has https://www.dhs.gov/real-id/real-id-faqs
will apply after May 7. However, should a person’s TPS or DACA status be terminated, his or her REAL ID may likewise become invalid, rendering that person ineligible.
Domestic Opposition
The REAL ID Act initially required all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and five territories to comply with federal requirements by May 11, 2008. However, opposition from states delayed implementation. Many did not wish to harmonize their ID processes with the program, seeing it as an additional burden.
Eventually, most complied, and by 2014, REAL ID enforcement was phased in incrementally at some federal facilities. Still, processing delays and the unwillingness of many Americans to change their IDs led the federal government to extend the deadline multiple times, with three extensions during the COVID-19 pandemic alone.
The Trump administration has decided to implement the program in full on the May 7 deadline, which accords with its policy goal of removing illegal immigrants from the United States and excluding them from domestic benefits.
“REAL ID is coming ... and so is your existential crisis,” the TSA https://x.com/TSA/status/1904655285676851502
on social media platform X. “You know that flimsy driver’s license you’ve been carrying? You’re going to need to upgrade it to a REAL ID by May 7.”
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has announced her commitment to the program.
“These IDs keep our country safe because they help prevent fraud and enhance security,” she said in a video message about the REAL ID program https://x.com/Sec_Noem/status/1910773704788672705
on X. “Please do your part to protect our country.”
Some libertarian politicians (including Republicans), who oppose what they call “government overreach,” have voiced opposition to the REAL ID program, citing the risk of government surveillance of Americans.
“Real ID isn’t needed and won’t stop terrorists from hijacking planes,” Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) wrote in a https://x.com/repthomasmassie/status/1911124853177885048?s=46
on X.
“Most of the 9/11 hijackers held Saudi, [United Arab Emirates], Egyptian, or Lebanese passports. Real ID is a national standard and database of IDs that is primarily a tool for control of Americans. Trump shouldn’t enforce it.”
Others, such as airport authorities, have warned that the inconvenience of obtaining a REAL ID and non-compliance will lead to travel delays, long lines, and angry passengers at airports.
“Avoid last-minute travel chaos — REAL ID deadline goes into effect May 7,” the San Diego International Airport authority https://x.com/SanDiegoAirport/status/1910414486781014160
on X.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 04/16/2025 - 19:15
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fly-youll-soon-need-real-id-what-know
Stellar 20Y Auction Stops Through, Benefits From Solid Foreign Demand
Stellar 20Y Auction Stops Through, Benefits From Solid Foreign Demand
After last week's basis trade collapse (which we now know has already claimed several relative value multistrat hedge funds), many were dreading the outcome of today's 20Y auction, a reopening of 19-Year, 10-Month cusip UJ5. It turned out they have nothing to fear.
The $13BN auction priced at 1:01pm ET at a high yield of 4.810%, up sharply from last month's 4.632% and the highest since February; more importantly it stopped through the When Issued 4.814% by 0.4bps, the second consecutive stop through (if fractionally weaker than last month) and 3rd in the past 4 months.
?itok=ZzfP8a6V
It wasn't just the headline: the Bid to Cover was 2.63, which while down from last month's 2.78 was comfortably above the six-auction average of 2.57.
But like last week, the internals were most closely watched because in a time when there was virtually no Direct demand for US paper (amid the basis trade unwind), the composition of today's takedown distribution was sure to be a buzz if there were any outliers. In the end, there would be no buzz because there were no surprises: Indirects took down a decent 70.7%, the highest since August and naturally above the six-auction average; As for Directs, unlike last week's collapse, today they took down a healty 12.3% - yes still the lowest since November, but hardly a single digit affair like we saw last week. Finally Dealers were left holding 17.0%, just fractionally above the 15.3% average, and in line with recent auctions.
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Overall, this was a remarkable solid 20Y auction, and one which certainly brushed away concerns that foreigners are boycotting US Treasury auctions, if only for now. As for the secondary market, that's a different story.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 04/16/2025 - 13:29
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stellar-20y-auction-stops-through-benefits-solid-foreign-demand
Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell On The State Of The Economy
Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell On The State Of The Economy
Which economy will Fed Chair Powell choose to discuss this afternoon as, for the second time in less than two weeks, he will weigh in with his sense of what's in store for Americans on inflation and jobs, and what the central bank may do about it if they veer off course.
Will it be the 'soft' survey based economy (with this morning's collapse in the New York Business Leaders survey as the latest example) or the 'hard' data based economy (with this morning's surge in retail sales and manufacturing production showing strength)...
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The last time he spoke (on April 4th - 2 days after Liberation Day), Powell voiced essentially a wait-and-see approach, saying "it is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy."
Marcin Kazmierczak, Co-founder & COO of RedStone:
"Markets will be hyper-focused on Powell's inflation commentary and rate cut signals, with any acknowledgment of economic growth concerns potentially triggering significant market reactions."
earlier this week Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that if Trump continues to peel back tariffs to a lower baseline, the central bank would do well to hang tight on interest rates in the first half of this year and perhaps cut gradually in the second half as tariff-elevated inflation subsides.
If Trump sticks to higher tariffs, Waller said, the unemployment rate could jump and the Fed would need to cut more aggressively.
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Other Fed policymakers have been more hawkish, focusing on signs that short-term inflation expectations have surged and could, as St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem put it, "seep" into longer-term expectations, potentially forcing the Fed to keep rates high or even raise them further.
It's not clear which view is closer to Powell's, or in how much detail he might articulate which way he leans.
"Besides the guidance on rates (where a probability close to 80% is discounted for a rate cut in June), the market will be looking for cues about the Fed's possibilities to deal with market turmoil," says Commerzbank's head of interest rates strategy, Michael Leister in a note this morning.
Of course, President Trump has been very public about his views on what he thinks Powell should do... demanding rate-cuts to prop up markets/economy during the interregnum between tariff teror and tax-cut euphoria.
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Watch Fed Chair Powell speak live before the Economic Club of Chicago here (due to start at 1330ET):
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 04/16/2025 - 13:25
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-live-fed-chair-powell-state-economy
Bessent's Grand Strategy: Use Tariff Negotiations To Isolate China From The Rest Of The World
Bessent's Grand Strategy: Use Tariff Negotiations To Isolate China From The Rest Of The World
Yesterday, president Trump laid out the stakes in the ever-escalating trading war between the US and China, in typical laconic fashion: "We may want countries to choose between us and China" (a topic https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-have-choose-between-us-and-china
), with the White House adding that "The ball is in China’s court. China needs to make a deal with us."
This strategy, of forcing the world into "us (or US) vs them" camps first emerged last week when Trump reduced reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China, something we highlighted at the time.
This is actually a very smart move: clubbing the entire world against China https://t.co/fsBagdFRRR
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1910020488744550426?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
A few days later, this now appears to be the official strategy in the global trade war.
As the https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/u-s-plans-to-use-tariff-negotiations-to-isolate-china-177d1528
, the Trump admin plans to use ongoing tariff negotiations to pressure U.S. trading partners to limit their dealings with China, according to people with knowledge of the conversations.
The idea, as we laid out in not so many words, is to extract commitments from U.S. trading partners to isolate China’s economy in exchange for reductions in trade and tariff barriers imposed by the White House. US officials plan to use negotiations with more than 70 nations to ask them to disallow China to ship goods through their countries (the so-called "transshipment" loophole), prevent Chinese firms from locating in their territories to avoid U.S. tariffs, and not absorb China’s cheap industrial goods into their economies.
Those measures are meant to put a final stake in China’s already sinking economy (which somewhat ironically got a boost in the first quarter as its export partners front-loaded purchased goods ahead of the tariff price surge which is already in place and which will put a deep freeze on China's manufacturing empire) and force Beijing to the negotiating table with less leverage ahead of potential talks between Trump and President Xi Jinping. The exact demands could vary widely by nation, given their degree of involvement with the Chinese economy.
US officials have already presented the idea in early talks with some countries according to WSJ sources, who added that Trump himself hinted at the strategy on Tuesday, telling the Spanish-language program “Fox Noticias” he would consider making countries choose between the US and China in response to a question about Panama deciding not to renew its role in the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s global infrastructure program for developing nations.
Trump gives ULTIMATUM to Latin America:
Choose between USA and China
‘They SHOULD do that’
What should Latin America do? https://t.co/MWVq2AJXJj
— RT (@RT_com) https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1912265950142808341?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
According to the WSJ, the brain behind the strategy is Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has taken a leading role in the trade negotiations since Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most nations—but not China—on April 9.
Bessent pitched the idea to Trump during an April 6 meeting at Mar-a-Lago, the president’s club in Florida, said people familiar with the discussion, saying that extracting concessions from U.S. trading partners could prevent Beijing and its companies from avoiding U.S. tariffs, export controls and other economic measures.
The tactic is part of a strategy conceived by Bessent to isolate the Chinese economy that has gained traction among Trump officials recently. Debates over the scope and severity of U.S. tariffs are ongoing, but officials largely appear to agree with Bessent’s China plan.
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It involves cutting China off from the U.S. economy with tariffs and potentially even cutting Chinese stocks out of U.S. exchanges. Bessent didn’t rule out the administration trying to delist Chinese stocks in a recent interview with Fox Business. Still, the ultimate goal of the administration’s China policy isn’t yet clear.
Bessent has also said there is still room for talks on a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China. Such talks would have to involve Trump and Xi. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt read a new statement from Trump during Tuesday’s press briefing suggesting a deal with China isn’t imminent.
“The ball is in China’s court,” Leavitt said when reading Trump’s statement. “China needs to make a deal with us. We don’t have to make a deal with them. China wants what we have…the American consumer.”
Indeed it does, as do all the countries that China uses for tolling and/or transshipment, so if the White House truly cracked down on all possible ports of entry to US consumers, who account for 70% of the roughly $30 trillion in US GDP, then China will have no choice but to either concede, or pursue two other approaches which we laid out before: devalue the currency or unleash a massive fiscal stimulus.
China has three options:
1. Concede defeat to whatever terms Trump demands
2. Devalue the yuan by 20-40%
3. Unleash biggest fiscal stimulus in its history (talking $2-3 trillion) which will push its debt off the chart
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1908149901185155452?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
It also isn’t clear that the anti-China line has entered into negotiations with all nations. Some countries haven’t heard demands from U.S. negotiators related to China, although negotiations remain in early stages. Many expect the Trump administration to raise China-related demands sooner or later.
Bessent has shown his desire for anti-China pledges from U.S. trading partners before. In late February, he said that Mexico had offered to match U.S. tariffs on China as part of negotiations over Trump’s tariffs on Mexico imposed because of the fentanyl trade. Bessent called Mexico’s offer a “nice gesture,” but the idea didn’t find much traction with the administration.
Since then, Bessent has taken a more central role in trade negotiations, assuming a lead in talks over reciprocal tariffs after Trump announced his 90-day pause on April 9. The Treasury secretary is slated to meet with Japan’s economic revitalization minister today and has laid out a list of nations he thinks could soon reach deals with the U.S., including Japan, the U.K., Australia, South Korea and India.
Of course, China isn't waiting for the trap to close in on it, and is conducting its own trade diplomacy. This week, Xi traveled to Vietnam, a key U.S. trading partner hard-hit by Trump’s tariffs, and signed dozens of economic pledges with the Hanoi government, although at the same time Vietnam has hinted it could balance out its trade balance with the US by purchasing substantial military equipment from the US.
China views Trump’s reciprocal trade gambit as an opportunity, Peter Harrell, the former senior director for international economics on former President Joe Biden’s National Security Council, said on a panel discussion Tuesday at Georgetown Law.
But China’s ability to counteract U.S. trade policies is limited, Harrell said. While the U.S. remains a “massive net importer,” China is reducing its imports from the rest of the world and focusing on self-sufficiency. The problem, as Michael Pettis has laid out, is that China is years if not decades behind having a vibrant consumer class of its own. Which only leaves mercantilism for now.
1/4
Because the only sustainable way to rebalance the Chinese economy towards a greater role for consumption in driving demand requires that household income, including transfers, rise faster than GDP, it is good news that...https://t.co/W9sv8XBx15
— Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1912390779059716122?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
And that's why Beijing is scrambling to inflict as much financial damage on the US as possible - up to and including dumping US Treasuries in hopes of sending the dollar tumbling and prompting narratives about "the end of the US dollar reserve status" while maintaining the impression that all is well domestically https://t.co/UsvZBj8Q0S
.
China “isn’t going to replace the U.S. as a source of demand for the products that a bunch of these developing countries…make,” Harrell said. “So the economics of this are going to prove challenging for China, but I think we see them playing the politics of this reasonably savvily.”
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 04/16/2025 - 13:05
You Won't Believe Who The Climate Change Nut Jobs Are Targeting Now...
You Won't Believe Who The Climate Change Nut Jobs Are Targeting Now...
https://modernity.news/2025/04/15/you-wont-believe-who-the-climate-change-nut-jobs-are-targeting-now
Ecomentalists have a new “villain” in their sights, and he could be sitting in your house right now.
?itok=z8Trx08R
They’ve come after your children, your cars, and your holidays, now they want to lecture you about how awful for the environment your pet dog is.
Yes, really. The animals that provide humans with the most unwavering love and loyalty there is. Can’t be having that now, can we.
Dogs have “extensive and multifarious” environmental impacts, disturbing wildlife, polluting waterways and contributing to carbon emissions, new research has found. https://t.co/J2JXsybuSN
— Mother Jones (@MotherJones) https://twitter.com/MotherJones/status/1911934495973929292?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Turgid leftist outlet MotherJones writes “Dogs have “extensive and multifarious” environmental impacts, disturbing wildlife, polluting waterways and contributing to carbon emissions, new research has found.”
That’s already clutching at straws. Dogs only ‘disturb wildlife’ and ‘pollute waterways’ if their owners let them.
And dogs release carbon emissions. Wow, massive revelation. So does practically everything alive.
You want everything to die?
It continues, “An Australian review of existing studies has argued that ‘the environmental impact of owned dogs is far greater, more insidious, and more concerning than is generally recognised.”
Ugh, what? Still no actual details.
“The review, published in the journal Pacific Conservation Biology, highlighted the impacts of the world’s ‘commonest large carnivore’ in killing and disturbing native wildlife, particularly shore birds,” it further states.
Again, that only happens if irresponsible owners allow it.
It continues, “In Australia, attacks by unrestrained dogs on little penguins in Tasmania may contribute to colony collapse, modelling suggests, while a study of animals taken to the Australia Zoo wildlife hospital found that mortality was highest after dog attacks.”
It also suggests that bobcats and deer are “less active” when dogs are around.
Ok, done with this.
You’re not getting our dogs because some penguins in Tasmania got attacked once and bobcats don’t get on with them.
Go and sponge up all life’s joys on your own somewhere else.
Now do Democrats
— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1912140170020741611?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Please run with “Dogs are bad” all the way to the next election.
— IT Guy (@ITGuy1959) https://twitter.com/ITGuy1959/status/1912009637123022993?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The Mother Jones readership prefers the smell of cat piss and kitty litter.
Plus they don’t want to offend their Hamas readers by praising dogs as pets.
— PunishedNixon🚁🇺🇸 (@NixonPunished) https://twitter.com/NixonPunished/status/1911944603382825311?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Counterpoint: A single dog offers more worth to this world than everyone who works for Mother Jones, combined.
— One of several Jeff Goldmans (@TheJeffGoldman) https://twitter.com/TheJeffGoldman/status/1911959642009120874?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Telling people that owning dogs is bad for the environment is a new low for authoritarian management of trying to be "holier than thou" and dictate what one should or should not do in their personal lives. Then liberals wonder why more people are turning conservative.
— 1SlyGhost🇺🇸 (@1SlyGhost) https://twitter.com/1SlyGhost/status/1912140573307265171?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Just don’t own a dog, and hold your breath when you see one.
— Ray-Ray Green (@Prolife_Texan__) https://twitter.com/Prolife_Texan__/status/1911974723006738588?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Let me guess, your solution is more childless cat ladies?
— NotVoltaire (@not_voltaire) https://twitter.com/not_voltaire/status/1912138903412228131?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Never trust a person who doesn’t like dogs.
— Subtard Zee 🇺🇸 (@bronze_age_zee) https://twitter.com/bronze_age_zee/status/1912147826479358364?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
LMAOOOO broooo this is peak cat lady journalism energy.
Mother Jones really published “Your golden retriever is basically an oil spill with paws” and hit publish like it was the Pentagon Papers.
— Talon (@Raz0r_Ramon) https://twitter.com/Raz0r_Ramon/status/1911969770146091419?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— kentstrang (@kentstrang) https://twitter.com/kentstrang/status/1911977057845657942?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Um – don’t care. https://t.co/yYwg39SvQK
— Cookedgooseinflorida 🐊 📟 (@CookedGooseinFL) https://twitter.com/CookedGooseinFL/status/1912099959865831546?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
You all just hate life just admit finally.
— Baaron (@Killuminati2202) https://twitter.com/Killuminati2202/status/1912227350843986108?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Yes, we can’t have them. They bring us endless joy and love, leftists hate that.
— Holly 🇺🇸🐊 (@CrossingUNStyle) https://twitter.com/CrossingUNStyle/status/1912115218290704460?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
?itok=37DC7FP0
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Wed, 04/16/2025 - 09:55
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/you-wont-believe-who-climate-change-nut-jobs-are-targeting-now