The global superpower countries are at a stalemate because the threat of mutual nuclear annihilation.
So, the only way a superpower can be destroyed is from within.
The US government is adding to the national debt at an astonishing rate.
So far this fiscal year(Oct 22 until now), the Federal government has ran a budget deficit of $1.1 trillion, or 65% more than the same time last year.
In total, the budget deficit for 2022 was $1.4 trillion. At the current rate, the budget deficit will be $2.3 trillion for 2023. Near emergency COVID levels.
The main driver of the increased budget deficit is the increase in the interest expense paid by the US Treasury to service it's outstanding debt. The interest expense increases as the Fed raises interest rates, which they have done since early 2022.
The US government is adding to the national debt at an astonishing rate.
So far this fiscal year(Oct 22 until now), the Federal government has ran a budget deficit of $1.1 trillion, or 65% more than the same time last year.
In total, the budget deficit for 2022 was $1.4 trillion. At the current rate, the budget deficit will be $2.3 trillion for 2023. Near emergency COVID levels.
The main driver of the increased budget deficit is the increase in the interest expense paid by the US Treasury to service it's outstanding debt. The interest expense increases as the Fed raises interest rates, which they have done since early 2022.
The world is severely short #Bitcoin .
19.4 million total $BTC are in circulation, or about 92% of the 21 million bitcoin that will *ever* be mined. Only 8% of the supply is still up for grabs.
#Bitcoin stands alone as the only significant proof-of-work asset, it's 21 million supply cap is actually credible, and it's invention can't be replicated.
Everyone needs Bitcoin whether they know it yet or not, because it's the strongest form of property a person can own. Eventually, everyone will catch on to this.
I estimate that than 1% of people truly understand #Bitcoin and are buying as much of the supply as they possibly can, holding, and not selling at any price.
What happens to the $BTC price when the other 99% of people decide they want to get their hands on the remaining 8% of the supply?
The world is severely short #Bitcoin .
19.4 million total $BTC are in circulation, or about 92% of the 21 million bitcoin that will *ever* be mined. Only 8% of the supply is still up for grabs.
#Bitcoin stands alone as the only significant proof-of-work asset, it's 21 million supply cap is actually credible, and it's invention can't be replicated.
Everyone needs Bitcoin whether they know it yet or not, because it's the strongest form of property a person can own. Eventually, everyone will catch on to this.
I estimate that than 1% of people truly understand #Bitcoin and are buying as much of the supply as they possibly can, holding, and not selling at any price.
What happens to the $BTC price when the other 99% of people decide they want to get their hands on the remaining 8% of the supply?
58 days to reach a $1M #Bitcoin price or @balajis loses his bet.
Bitcoin price has appreciated about 17% from the $26k price when he made the bet.
$1M is a 3,189% increase in $BTC price, or 6.2% compounded daily for 58 days.
Seems doable.
Real Yield on 1 year U.S. Treasuries (yield minus CPI):
*Almost* a positive real yield.
Note that this is based on the official CPI data which is manipulated (lower) by the BLS through periodic adjustments to how CPI is calculated.
Using the current official CPI measurement, rate hikes appear to have nearly caught up to inflation, with a near 0% real yield.
However, using the original 1980 CPI methodology, real yields are still significantly negative at -8%.
Pure Signal. #Bitcoin hash rate continues to smash through all time highs despite the $BTC price being down 57% from all time highs.
I'm not saying this has anything to do with Russia mining, but I'm saying this has everything to do with Russia mining.
Updated: $BTC on public #Bitcoin miner balance sheets as a percentage of market cap, and Microstrategy:
Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) calculated using the 1980 methodology by Shadowstats:
Using the 1980 method, CPI is still around 13% YoY compared to the 5% reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
For background, the method used to calculate CPI has changed several times since 1980 in order to show a lower CPI number.
Median Sales Price of Homes in Major Metro Areas:
1. San Francisco, CA: $923,500
2. Los Angeles, CA: $816,667
3. San Diego, CA: $773,333
4. Seattle, WA: $612,667
5. Boston, MA: $560,458
6. Denver, CO: $550,000
7. New York, NY: $516,667
8. Riverside, CA: $508,333
9. Washington, DC: $458,967
10. Phoenix, AZ: $420,083
11. Miami, FL: $415,000
12. Dallas, TX: $362,768
13. Tampa, FL: $350,458
14. Atlanta, GA: $343,150
15. Baltimore, MD: $326,600
16. Minneapolis, MN: $324,867
17. Houston, TX: $305,633
18. Philadelphia, PA: $304,100
19. Chicago, IL: $272,667
20. Detroit, MI: $215,000
(data from Zillow)
San Francisco prices seem high compared to the value that a person gets for living there.
“The selfish reason to tweet bullish shit is that it attracts other bullish people into your network”
-I think the Dalai Lama
What if everything since 2008 that we call our wealth, is just wealth effects created from nonstop Quantitative Easing (QE), combined with 0% interest rates?
During the run up to the Great Financial Crisis(GFC) in 2008-09, the S&P only reached the same level (around 1500) that it had achieved 8 years prior in the dot com bubble; then the market crashed during the crisis.
Markets were only saved by 0% interest rates and the introduction of a new Fed tool, Quantitative Easing, which was originally intended to be a temporary measure to stabilize the economy during the GFC. However, the Fed never stopped doing QE.
Markets have ripped since then, the US has taken on even more debt.
Ray Dalio followers:
Dalio claims that the end of the last long term debt cycle was in 2008 during the GFC, but the economy has not deleveraged, only become more leveraged since then with the introduction of QE.
I don't see how we can call an end to the long term debt cycle until the stock market can achieve new all time highs *without* any new rounds of QE, interest rates that are >0%, all while the economy becomes less leveraged as measured by Debt/GDP ratio.
Please comment if you have a different perspective, or believe I'm wrong in my thinking.
What if everything since 2008 that we call our wealth, is just wealth effects created from nonstop Quantitative Easing (QE), combined with 0% interest rates?
During the run up to the Great Financial Crisis(GFC) in 2008-09, the S&P only reached the same level (around 1500) that it had achieved 8 years prior in the dot com bubble; then the market crashed during the crisis.
Markets were only saved by 0% interest rates and the introduction of a new Fed tool, Quantitative Easing, which was originally intended to be a temporary measure to stabilize the economy during the GFC. However, the Fed never stopped doing QE.
Markets have ripped since then, the US has taken on even more debt.
Ray Dalio followers:
Dalio claims that the end of the last long term debt cycle was in 2008 during the GFC, but the economy has not deleveraged, only become more leveraged since then with the introduction of QE.
I don't see how we can call an end to the long term debt cycle until the stock market can achieve new all time highs *without* any new rounds of QE, interest rates that are >0%, all while the economy becomes less leveraged as measured by Debt/GDP ratio.
Please comment if you have a different perspective, or believe I'm wrong in my thinking.
What if everything since 2008 that we call our wealth, is just wealth effects created from nonstop Quantitative Easing (QE), combined with 0% interest rates?
During the run up to the Great Financial Crisis(GFC) in 2008-09, the S&P only reached the same level (around 1500) that it had achieved 8 years prior in the dot com bubble; then the market crashed during the crisis.
Markets were only saved by 0% interest rates and the introduction of a new Fed tool, Quantitative Easing, which was originally intended to be a temporary measure to stabilize the economy during the GFC. However, the Fed never stopped doing QE.
Markets have ripped since then, the US has taken on even more debt.
Ray Dalio followers:
Dalio claims that the end of the last long term debt cycle was in 2008 during the GFC, but the economy has not deleveraged, only become more leveraged since then with the introduction of QE.
I don't see how we can call an end to the long term debt cycle until the stock market can achieve new all time highs *without* any new rounds of QE, interest rates that are >0%, all while the economy becomes less leveraged as measured by Debt/GDP ratio.
Please comment if you have a different perspective, or believe I'm wrong in my thinking.
What if everything since 2008 that we call our wealth, is just wealth effects created from nonstop Quantitative Easing (QE), combined with 0% interest rates?
During the run up to the Great Financial Crisis(GFC) in 2008-09, the S&P only reached the same level (around 1500) that it had achieved 8 years prior in the dot com bubble; then the market crashed during the crisis.
Markets were only saved by 0% interest rates and the introduction of a new Fed tool, Quantitative Easing, which was originally intended to be a temporary measure to stabilize the economy during the GFC. However, the Fed never stopped doing QE.
Markets have ripped since then, the US has taken on even more debt.
Ray Dalio followers:
Dalio claims that the end of the last long term debt cycle was in 2008 during the GFC, but the economy has not deleveraged, only become more leveraged since then with the introduction of QE.
I don't see how we can call an end to the long term debt cycle until the stock market can achieve new all time highs *without* any new rounds of QE, interest rates that are >0%, all while the economy becomes less leveraged as measured by Debt/GDP ratio.
Please comment if you have a different perspective, or believe I'm wrong in my thinking.
What if everything since 2008 that we call our wealth, is just wealth effects created from nonstop Quantitative Easing (QE), combined with 0% interest rates?
During the run up to the Great Financial Crisis(GFC) in 2008-09, the S&P only reached the same level (around 1500) that it had achieved 8 years prior in the dot com bubble; then the market crashed during the crisis.
Markets were only saved by 0% interest rates and the introduction of a new Fed tool, Quantitative Easing, which was originally intended to be a temporary measure to stabilize the economy during the GFC. However, the Fed never stopped doing QE.
Markets have ripped since then, the US has taken on even more debt.
Ray Dalio followers:
Dalio claims that the end of the last long term debt cycle was in 2008 during the GFC, but the economy has not deleveraged, only become more leveraged since then with the introduction of QE.
I don't see how we can call an end to the long term debt cycle until the stock market can achieve new all time highs *without* any new rounds of QE, interest rates that are >0%, all while the economy becomes less leveraged as measured by Debt/GDP ratio.
Please comment if you have a different perspective, or believe I'm wrong in my thinking.
#Bitcoin