So much of Bitcoin price discourse is a failure to realise that it trades like a currency, not like a stock, by people who have never traded either one.

Your mental framework for BTC price should imo be something like this:

- Historically, at least since GFC, emerging market currencies only went down against USD: -60% since 2008 on a weighted average basket (JPM EM FX index), carry excluded

- For many of them, this went gradually, eg the US dollar going from 13 to 25 against the Mexican peso between 2010 and 2020. For others it went straight line down, eg Argentina peso 2018-25 or Venezuelan bolivar 2019-25

- USD almost always wins, as it’s the global funding currency. The system is both structurally short dollar and dollar dependent, and EM balance sheets are often weak and asymmetric - will leave that for another time

- Against other major currencies like the euro, it has been much more give and take. Periods of strength and weakness but not a trend. EUR/USD goes from parity to 1.50 and back again

- Now here comes the crucial point: every piece of evidence from the last 15 years tells us that Bitcoin has assumed the role of the USD against Argentina peso, but now the USD has become the peso, and Bitcoin is proving to be the stronger entity

Bear markets still exist because of sentiment (fear), and the role of the dollar in the traditional financial system plumbing. But fundamentally bitcoin is simply a stronger currency and will keep trading like that.

The one thing that never happens to currencies, let alone apex predator currencies, is that they “go to zero”. You can instantly discard anyone who says things like that, they haven’t even grasped the most basic property of the thing they’re dealing with.

Maybe we should imagine ourselves just like broken clocks each of one with their "hands" stuck on different positions.

You'll be right sometimes but it won't last long, and more often you'll be wrong.

You'll seek for others to set and adjust yours, and feel like never founding the right source.

Then suddenly a day you start challenging the notion of time itself, its cicles, and it doesn't looks more like a circle but more like a spiral, constantly flowing, no beginning and no end.

What about the clocks then? Were they broken? Were they ever right or wrong? Maybe they never had sense, trying to fix and dividing in smaller and smaller pieces something that just goes, constantly changes, never is, while still flowing and expanding at same time is creating itself.

Maybe we should imagine ourselves more like a unique, interdependent, interconnected timechain, making intricate nets, constantly expanding, adding new links, endlessly changing, never right or wrong..

.. but maybe I am wrong.

Welcome to nostr. Nobody can stop you from doing whatever you want here and nobody can stop us from making fun of you when you do it 😀

Better do some sick shit while you’re still alive 100p

#bitcoin #nostr #btc #sats

#bitcoin #nostr #btc #sats

Imagina agora com o rombo que o Brasil vai ter em 2027, nunca teve uma crise orçamentária assim.

A quantidade de dinheiro que vai aumentar na base monetária (sendo impresso) vai FUDER o que o real ainda vale hoje em dia ( que não é merda nenhuma).

Parabéns ao Real Brasileiro pelos seus 31 anos.

Apesar do gráfico abaixo, é motivo para comemorar.

Nossa moeda menos pior nos últimos 100 anos.

Perdeu apenas 88% do seu poder de compra desde que começou.

English version:

Congratulations to Real Brasileiro for its 31st anniversary.

Despite the graph below, it is reason to celebrate.

Our least worst currency in the last 100 years.

It has only lost 88% of its purchasing power since it started.

#bitcoin #money #grownostr #zapathon #nostr #economy

Qual crime Gonzalo Lira (Jornalista Americano) cometeu para ser chantageado, torturado, extorquido até todas as contas serem evaziadas (dele e de seus pais) e, por fim, assassinado na cadeia (como ele e seu pai disseram que a ditadura faria)?

É verdade ou mentira que os partidos de oposição foram extintos e os eleitos e concursados a qualquer coisa na oposição tiveram seus cargos e mandatos cassados ou anulados?

Como chama regime que elimina oposição?

É verdade ou mentira que a ditadura impediu homens de sair do pais e os caça para ser bucha de canhão contra a vontade?

Nada disso viola PNA?

Ninguém que defenda a ditadura corrupta ucraniana pode se dizer libertário. Ela já sequestrou, roubou e matou mais gente inocente que o suposto inimigo.

Não há superioridade moral entre a ditadura gayzista/globalista e a russa.