Mexico economy to keep growing steadily after June presidential vote: Reuters poll
==========
Mexico's economy is expected to continue growing steadily after the June presidential election, in line with the performance of the United States. The fiscal front will become more challenging for the new government, with concerns about the impact on inflation. Leading the electoral race is ruling party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum, who has promised fiscal discipline but has yet to offer detailed plans. Gross domestic product (GDP) is forecasted to rise 2.2% this year and 1.9% in 2025, driven by good macro results in the U.S. and increased remittance flows. Mexico's overall fiscal deficit is set to end 2024 at 5.9% of GDP, the highest in IMF public finances data series starting in 2015. The deficit is expected to be reduced to 3.0% in 2025 if goals set by the current economic team are met. The Mexican benchmark rate is expected to be cut by 50 basis points each quarter this year, ending 2024 at 9.50% and 2025 at 7.50%. Some members of the central bank have called for a cautious policy due to fiscal doubts, elevated inflation, and the U.S. Federal Reserve's switch to a more vigilant stance on the start of an easing cycle.
#Mexico #Economy #PresidentialVote #Gdp #Inflation #FiscalDeficit #CentralBank
Asia stocks edge up, oil and gold retreat on tempered Mideast fears
==========
Asian stocks recovered losses as Middle East conflict fears eased. Gold and the safe-haven dollar pulled back. Iran said it had no plan to retaliate following an Israeli drone attack. MSCI's Asia-Pacific shares rose 0.93%. Japan's Nikkei added 0.48%. Australia's benchmark gained 0.96% and South Korea's climbed 1.04%. Hong Kong's jumped 2.26%. Mideast tensions stayed on the market's radar. U.S. stock futures added 0.26%. Bond yields rose back toward multi-month highs. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield added as much as 9 basis points to 4.658%. The dollar eased 0.07% to 106.03. Gold slid 0.6% to $2,376.40. Crude oil fell as traders put the focus back on fundamentals. WTI crude futures fell 0.6% to $86.75 a barrel. The article was published on April 21, 2024, at 10:42 PM.
#AsiaStocks #Oil #Gold #MiddleEast #Investors #Iran #Israel #Msci #Nikkei #Australia #SouthKorea #HongKong #UsStockFutures #BondYields #UsTreasuryYield #Dollar #Gold #CrudeOil
IMF's Gopinath says high U.S. demand fueling growth, higher interest rates
==========
The United States needs to raise revenues to bring down high budget deficits even though they are helping to fuel global growth by stoking domestic U.S. demand, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath. Gopinath stated that U.S. deficits are projected to rise for years with one of the world's steepest curves for debt. While the deficits are supporting growth and demand in the U.S., they are also leading to higher interest rates and a stronger dollar, which are creating complications for the rest of the world.
#Imf #GitaGopinath #UsDemand #Growth #InterestRates
US House to vote on long-awaited $95 billion Ukraine, Israel aid package
==========
The Republican-controlled US House of Representatives is set to vote on a $95 billion legislative package providing security assistance to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The package includes $60.84 billion for Ukraine, $26 billion for Israel, and $8.12 billion for the Indo-Pacific. The bill also includes measures such as sanctions, a threat to ban TikTok, and the potential transfer of seized Russian assets to Ukraine. The House is expected to pass the bill despite objections from some hardline Republicans who argue that the US cannot afford further Ukraine aid given its rising national debt.
US to withdraw military personnel from Niger, source says
==========
The United States will withdraw its troops from Niger, according to a source familiar with the matter. An agreement was reached between U.S Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and Niger's leadership. There were a little over 1,000 U.S. troops in Niger as of last year, operating out of two bases. The U.S. military has used a drone base known as Air Base 201 to target Islamic State militants and an al Qaeda affiliate in the Sahel region. Last year, Niger's army seized power in a coup, leading to the new authorities in Niger ending military deals with the United States and France and fostering closer ties with Russia. The withdrawal of troops will be discussed in the coming days, and diplomatic and economic relationships between the U.S. and Niger will continue despite this step. The New York Times reported that more than 1,000 American military personnel will leave Niger in the coming months. Last month, Niger's ruling junta revoked a military accord that allowed U.S. military personnel and civilian staff on its soil. The Pentagon is seeking clarification about the way forward and continues to communicate with Niger's ruling military council. The decision to withdraw troops comes amid growing concerns over democratic backsliding in West and Central Africa.
#Us #Niger #MilitaryWithdrawal #DiplomaticRelations #Security #Russia
US equity funds see sharp outflows as investors brace for extended high rates
==========
U.S. equity funds experienced significant outflows as investors anticipated prolonged restrictive interest rates due to stubborn inflation in the U.S. economy. In the seven days leading up to April 17, investors sold a net $21.15 billion worth of U.S. equity funds, the largest outflow in a week since December 21, 2022. U.S. large-cap equity funds saw the biggest outflow in a week since February 7, with $11.59 billion worth of net selling. Small-, multi-, and mid-cap funds also experienced net disposals of $2.71 billion, $2.13 billion, and $526 million, respectively. Additionally, U.S. investors sold consumer discretionary, healthcare, and gold & precious metal funds worth a net $701 million, $651 million, and $447 million, respectively, but purchased around a net $281 million worth of financial sector funds. U.S. bond funds recorded a weekly outflow of $3.83 billion, the largest net selling since mid-December. Money market funds also saw significant outflows, with $118.1 billion worth of net selling, the largest weekly outflow since at least July 2020.
#UsEquityFunds #Outflows #HighRates #Inflation #Investors
NFIB Sends Economic Warning: Slower Growth Ahead Amid Hiring Freeze, Falling Wages
==========
The latest National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey shows a decline in small business confidence, with the lowest level in 11 years, indicating a potential recessionary economy. Higher borrowing costs and tighter lending standards impede business growth for small businesses. The decline in capital expenditures (CapEx) plans by small businesses suggests slower rates of private investment and economic growth. Rising concerns about poor sales and the cost of labor indicate a lack of demand and potential economic slowdown. The decline in sales expectations and actual sales of small businesses suggests weaker retail sales and slower economic growth. Small businesses' plans to increase employment are declining sharply, indicating a lack of demand. As employee compensation decreases amid rising living costs, consumption and economic growth rates slow down. The NFIB survey provides an economic warning that should not be dismissed.
#Nfib #SmallBusinesses #EconomicWarning #BusinessConfidence #HiringFreeze #FallingWages #CapitalExpenditures #PrivateInvestment #EconomicGrowth #SalesExpectations #RetailSales #Employment #ConsumerSpending
NFIB Sends Economic Warning: Slower Growth Ahead Amid Hiring Freeze, Falling Wages
==========
The latest National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey shows a decline in small business confidence, with the lowest level in 11 years, indicating a potential recessionary economy. Higher borrowing costs and tighter lending standards impede business growth for small businesses. The decline in capital expenditures (CapEx) plans by small businesses suggests slower rates of private investment and economic growth. Rising concerns about poor sales and the cost of labor indicate a lack of demand and potential economic slowdown. The decline in sales expectations and actual sales of small businesses suggests weaker retail sales and slower economic growth. Small businesses' plans to increase employment are declining sharply, indicating a lack of demand. As employee compensation decreases amid rising living costs, consumption and economic growth rates slow down. The NFIB survey provides an economic warning that should not be dismissed.
#Nfib #SmallBusinesses #EconomicWarning #BusinessConfidence #HiringFreeze #FallingWages #CapitalExpenditures #PrivateInvestment #EconomicGrowth #SalesExpectations #RetailSales #Employment #ConsumerSpending
Fed to cut US rates 'at some point, but no hurry, Mester says
==========
Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester expects price pressures to ease further this year, allowing the Fed to reduce borrowing costs, but only when it is "pretty confident" inflation is heading sustainably to its 2% goal. Inflation so far this year has run higher than expected, with the personal consumption expenditures price index running at 2.5%, and core PCE at near 3% over the last six months on an annualized basis. Mester's comments mark a retreat from her expectation just two weeks ago that the Fed will likely begin cutting the policy rate from its current 5.25%-5% range "later this year." Other Fed officials have made similar rhetorical pivots away from guidance on the timing of rate cuts, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday signaling rates may stay higher for longer. Financial markets have adjusted their expectations accordingly, with traders now pricing a first rate cut in September and only a 50-50 chance of one more quarter-point cut before the end of this year.
#FederalReserve #UsInterestRates #LorettaMester #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy
US agencies to probe unfair practices in airline loyalty programs in hearing
==========
The U.S. Department of Transportation and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will hold a public hearing on May 9 to investigate unfair practices in airline loyalty programs. The hearing will include regulators, airline executives, consumer advocates, and banking officials. Allegiant Air and Breeze Airways will represent the airline industry. The Transportation Department has been scrutinizing the frequent flyer programs of major U.S. airlines for potential deceptive or unfair practices. In addition, the Department of Transportation is reviewing how the 10 largest U.S. airlines collect, handle, and use the personal information of passengers.
US Treasury sees progress on multilateral bank reforms, but more to do
==========
The US Treasury has praised the progress made by multilateral development banks (MDBs) on reforms to expand their lending capacity to help countries address climate change and other challenges. The Treasury official highlighted a report by the Inter-American Development Bank and World Bank on callable capital as an important step towards increasing lending. The official also mentioned recent positive developments at the African Development Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank, but emphasized that more work is needed. The next steps include engaging with credit rating agencies and increasing callable capital at the African Development Bank.
#UsTreasury #MultilateralDevelopmentBanks #Reforms #LendingCapacity #ClimateChange #CallableCapital #InteramericanDevelopmentBank #WorldBank #AfricanDevelopmentBank
US workers seeking record wages to consider new jobs, New York Fed says
==========
The lowest wage Americans said they were willing to accept to take a new job reached a record high in March, according to new data from the New York Federal Reserve. The average reservation wage was $81,822, up from $73,391 in the previous report. The increase was driven by men, respondents over the age of 45, and those without college degrees. The report also found declining satisfaction with wage and non-wage compensation in March, while satisfaction with promotion opportunities held steady. Despite workers seeking higher wages, employers were offering lower starting wages, with the average offer at $73,668 in March compared to $79,160 in November.
#UsWorkers #Wages #NewYorkFed
US retail sales beat expectations in March
==========
U.S. retail sales increased 0.7% in March, beating expectations, with a surge in online sales. The report follows strong employment gains in March and suggests the Federal Reserve may delay cutting interest rates. Despite higher inflation and borrowing costs, spending continues to hold up, particularly among lower-income households benefiting from the robust labor market. Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services increased 1.1% in March. Core retail sales, which closely correspond with consumer spending, likely remained sufficient to support the economy in the first quarter, with growth estimated as high as a 2.4% annualized rate.
#UsRetailSales #Economy #FederalReserve #OnlineSales
https://www.investing.com/news/economy/us-retail-sales-beat-expectations-in-march-3378346
IRS says beats US tax filing season service goals, needs funding sustained
==========
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has announced that it exceeded its goals for speeding assistance to taxpayers and cutting phone hold times to three minutes during the tax filing season. The IRS achieved this despite answering nearly one million more calls than the previous year. The agency has hired over 5,000 staff to assist taxpayers and handle digitization of paper filings. However, IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel stated that the agency does not have adequate resources to sustain hiring for taxpayer services and auditing of complex business partnerships while modernizing its systems, and will need annual operating budget increases in future years. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen emphasized the need for Congress to provide the IRS with the necessary resources to maintain its momentum.
#Irs #TaxFiling #Taxpayers #Funding #TaxAgency
Gold rises, oil choppy after Iran attacks Israel
==========
Gold prices rose on Monday as safe haven bids increased after Iran's retaliatory attack on Israel. Iran launched explosive drones and missiles at Israel in retaliation for a suspected Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria on April 1. The threat of open warfare between the two countries and the potential involvement of the United States has left the region on edge. Oil prices were choppy in response to the attack. Gold rose 0.7% to $2,359.92 an ounce, while oil prices were volatile. U.S. stock futures ticked higher after major indexes ended lower on Friday. The dollar held steady, and U.S. Treasury yields edged slightly lower. The market is closely watching for further developments and potential counter-responses from Israel.
#Gold #Oil #Iran #Israel #MiddleEast #Conflict
https://www.investing.com/news/economy/gold-rises-oil-choppy-after-iran-attacks-israel-3377423
Despair makes young US men more conservative ahead of US election, poll shows
==========
A global survey by Glocalities showed a surge in despair and disillusionment with established politics, particularly among young American men. Young US men were the only population group in the US or seven EU member states to have become more conservative since 2014. The study also highlighted a sharp difference between young men and young women, with young women growing more liberal and anti-patriarchal. The report suggested that social media algorithms were magnifying the trend by drawing moderately conservative young men towards more extreme and radical conservative male role models and world views.
#UsElection #Poll #Conservatism #Despair #YoungMen #Glocalities
Despair makes young US men more conservative ahead of US election, poll shows
==========
A global survey by Glocalities showed a surge in despair and disillusionment with established politics, particularly among young American men. Young US men were the only population group in the US or seven EU member states to have become more conservative since 2014. The study also highlighted a sharp difference between young men and young women, with young women growing more liberal and anti-patriarchal. The report suggested that social media algorithms were magnifying the trend by drawing moderately conservative young men towards more extreme and radical conservative male role models and world views.
#UsElection #Poll #Conservatism #Despair #YoungMen #Glocalities
Delta rockets retired with launch of US reconnaissance satellite
==========
The U.S. Space Force and a Boeing-Lockheed joint venture sent a secret reconnaissance payload to orbit on Tuesday atop a Delta IV Heavy rocket, the last flight of a workhorse launch vehicle brand that has logged nearly 400 missions dating back to 1960. The United Launch Alliance-owned rocket, standing roughly 23 stories tall, blasted off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida around 1 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT), 12 days after a previous launch attempt was scrubbed at the last minute due to a technical glitch. The flight was intended to deploy a satellite for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), a U.S. defense intelligence agency, on a classified mission designated as NROL-70. The Space Force field command confirmed hours later that the launch had successfully delivered the payload to orbit. It marked the 16th and final flight of a Delta IV Heavy and the last of any of the Delta family of rockets, a space launch dynasty that originated from a modified intermediate-range ballistic missile and grew to include about two dozen increasingly powerful variants. Since the Thor-Delta rocket was introduced in 1960 at the dawn of the Space Age, the Delta brand has logged 389 launches, with payloads ranging from the world's first weather and GPS satellites to NASA science missions including eight spacecraft to Mars. The world's first passive communications satellite, Echo 1A, and first active communications satellite, Telstar 1, which enabled transatlantic television transmission, were launched by Thor-Deltas in 1960 and 1962, respectively. Among other space science missions, Delta II rockets launched the twin Mars rovers Spirit and Opportunity in 2003, and a Delta IV sent the Parker Solar Probe to space in 2018. ULA, a partnership of aerospace giants Boeing and Lockheed, is retiring Delta and Atlas rockets in favor of its newly developed Vulcan rocket, which made its inaugural flight in January carrying a privately funded moon lander.
#DeltaIvHeavy #UnitedLaunchAlliance #NationalReconnaissanceOffice #SpaceForce #Nrol70 #VulcanRocket
US to close 'gun show loophole' and require more background checks
==========
The U.S. Justice Department has finalized a rule requiring gun dealers to obtain federal licenses and conduct background checks regardless of where they sell guns, closing the 'gun show loophole.' The rule will impact an estimated 23,000 individuals engaged in unlicensed gun dealing in the United States and will affect tens of thousands of gun sales per year. The number of children killed by guns in the U.S. hit a high in 2021, and the country has higher rates of gun death than other wealthy nations. The rule does not constitute a universal background check and certain firearms transfers among family members will still be allowed without a background check. Gun rights groups are likely to challenge the rule in court.
#GunControl #BackgroundChecks #GunShowLoophole #UsJusticeDepartment
More produce, less dairy for low-income families under US nutrition program changes
==========
Nearly 7 million low-income women and children will be able to purchase more fruits and vegetables but less dairy after the U.S. Department of Agriculture finalized changes to the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC). The updates align the program's food packages with the latest nutrition science, increasing allowances for fruits, vegetables, and seafood, and decreasing the amounts of juice, dairy, and cheese. Non-dairy options like plant-based and lactose-free milk will also be added. The changes were criticized by dairy promotion groups, but the USDA expects dairy purchases through WIC to rise by as much as $400 million by 2025 due to increased participation.
#NutritionProgram #LowincomeFamilies #UsDepartmentOfAgriculture #Wic #Fruits #Vegetables #Dairy #Seafood #PlantbasedMilk #LactosefreeMilk