My updated guesses (which are worth very little and should not be construed as investment advice):

1. $125k by Christmas Day 2024, which will likely prove to be conservative. (More likely, $125k by Halloween 2024.)

2. $475k by 4Q 2025 (unchanged guess, but also possibly too conservative).

#bitcoin

(Past performance may not be indicative of future returns.)

“Please clap”

That’s a great one, also things hidden since the foundation of the world. Also wanting by Luke Burgis if you want an easy read.

A story that illustrates why I will never orange pill anyone ever again.

2015- Attempt to orange pill friend multiple times. No dice. Totally uninterested.

2019- He asks me if now is a good time to get into bitcoin. “It’s always a good time”. I set him up with a HW wallet and tell him DCA and chill.

2019- Friend calls me a few months later, he wants to put the down payment money for his house into bitcoin, but he’s nervous. I say no worries I will backstop your investment. What’re friends for?! I want you to succeed. He now has a no risk investment. Financed by me.

2020: Friend is doing well. Has been stacking hard and has 2 coins. A great stack for his income.

2021: He starts watching cringey YouTube videos about shitcoin trading. Gets into a private telegram, trades his 2 bitcoin into 4 and then gets rug pulled and loses everything.

2021: He’s near suicidal, very dark times. He doesn’t tell me anything because he knows I warned him about trading and thinks I’ll be disappointed in him. Finally he tells me. I help him get a personal loan so he can take advantage of the remainder of the bull run. He sells at 55k and manages to break even. He’s not up but he’s got his house money back.

2023: We’re out drinking with some other friends from high school. He expresses some jealousy towards me in a semi awkward fashion. “Every time I see this dude (me) I think about bitcoin.”

2024: I meet up with him so the kids can play at the park. Vibe is off. Lots of insecurity and tension. They’re going on a trip to San Diego and I ask if they might go to the zoo while there. “I can’t afford that. That’s for rich people like you”. Odd interaction, but I shake it off.

2024: A few weeks later he gets drunk and hits on my wife via text messages. She shows me immediately and I confront him. He’s like “sorry bro I was drunk I didn’t mean it”. I tell him off and make clear this is the last time we will ever speak.

No good deed goes unpunished. I could not have been nicer to this dude and more helpful along the way and he is fully consumed by envy towards me.

Unfortunate.

Everyone fails.

Including those who never try. Because not trying and giving up is a form of failure.

Failure isn’t actually a big deal.

The bigger deal is how people respond to failure.

One type of person has a list of ready excuses for why they failed and cope by believing that “life is unfair” and “people are mean”… both of which are true.

The huge problem is that they never progress and/or learn from their mistakes to become better versions of themselves.

Rather than using cope and excuses, the successful human humbly admits his or her shortcomings and takes the time to learn from them.

They own their mistakes and weaknesses and take responsibility for them.

And, in the end, they are better for it.

Also, they keep trying (and failing).

And that’s okay.

#Bitcoin

Do not follow the majority. Follow the right way.

The majority of people have a strong tendency to want to be part of something that is bigger than themselves. It is why they not just get up in the morning, but why they are *energized* to get up in the morning.

Clans and religions were among the earliest bigger things. People know that they will die, and so they invest into their descendants, honor their ancestors, and contemplate metaphysics and the nature of life. Many people will willingly sacrifice themselves for their children or for their highest ideals because of this.

In the modern era of printing presses and telecommunication systems, there is also a broader set of choices for people to group together around, either combined with those other ones or sometimes instead of them. Sometimes they choose nationalism. Sometimes they fight for a political ideology that transcends borders. Sometimes it is a professional guild or professional recognition. Sometimes it is the environment. Right or left or anywhere in between, you can often tell what someone adheres to as their highest ideal.

A powerful exercise is to 1) identify what you feel a part of in the bigger sense (it could be a few things) and 2) whenever someone’s behavior confuses you, stop and think about what they likely feel a part of in a bigger sense, if anything. You might feel that what they associate with is fucking retarded, but if you can at least identify it, then that is the first step toward successful communication and debate and rebuttal.

Using myself as an example, my professional experience is in a combination of engineering and finance. Separately, my ethical philosophy is grounded in virtue ethics (that’s a whole other longwinded topic), and as a result, what I feel a part of in a bigger sense is various social movements and protocols that utilize technology to bring financial autonomy to people. That’s where I put my time and capital toward.

Successful commerce involves the combination of value and communication. Therefore, I want people to be able to communicate freely and transfer value freely. As such, I strongly associate with the leading technologies in those fields, such as Bitcoin and Nostr.

If I thought they were weak, I would sympathize with them but not invest in them or have much hope for them. That was my view for a while. But if I view them as technically capable and achieving of network effects, then my rationality combines with my sympathy and becomes full support.

I don’t care what peoples’ race, sex, orientation, ethnicity, or nationality is. Instead, what I care about is doing whatever tiny part I can to bring technologies to people that allow them to transfer value and information to others, or to educate people on those technologies, etc. That is where my time and capital is focused on. Outside of family, that is what makes me energized in the morning to work toward.

What is yours?

HOUSE OF DRAGONS

SEASON 2

JUNE 16TH

Are you right brain or left brain person ,left brain people see a cat ,right brain people see a mouse ,which one are you?