How often do you consider the fact that you don’t see reality, just human reality tuned specifically for our evolutionary fitness and survival. And if you were to see the full breadth of reality you’d be incapable of surviving and reproducing and would quickly go extinct?

Because for me it’s like once a quarter.

Net Liquidity and Global M2 Update:

US Net Liquidity (upper chart) tried and failed to break out of its two-year range and has recently turned lower.

OPINION #1: Ongoing bullcrabby implications (sideways chop around local highs) in the near-term for US small and mid-cap equities.

Global M2 (approximate; lower chart) continues to trend sideways near the upper end of resistance within its three-year channel.

OPINION #2: Until this trend changes, I expect continued choppy sideways ("crabby") price action of worldwide assets near local highs. 🦀These may include: #bitcoin, #gold, FAANG+ stocks, and $QQQ, among others.

OPINION #3: Continue to respect the bullcrab environment. In other words, lean bullish... but not overly bullish... and definitely not bearish.

(Not individual investment advice! For infotainment purposes only!)

NEW: 🇺🇸 Spot #Bitcoin  ETFs bought 3,535 #BTC  yesterday, while miners only produced 850 BTC.

The year is 2033. A Hershey's bar costs $39, the average home costs $2.7M, US Debt has crested $90T, and Vanguard investors are wondering why they weren’t allowed to buy #Bitcoin when it was still under $100K.

Most of $GBTC #Bitcoin  sell pressure is over. Guess what happens next? 🚀

Centralized platform run by egomaniac under the guise of “free speech”

My favorite nostr:note1m57wya7h9qpuae9clc7tn905qrgdngjjm7585p2v58e6zx7qdnws6vhmh5

Everyone fails.

Including those who never try. Because not trying and giving up is a form of failure.

Failure isn’t actually a big deal.

The bigger deal is how people respond to failure.

One type of person has a list of ready excuses for why they failed and cope by believing that “life is unfair” and “people are mean”… both of which are true.

The huge problem is that they never progress and/or learn from their mistakes to become better versions of themselves.

Rather than using cope and excuses, the successful human humbly admits his or her shortcomings and takes the time to learn from them.

They own their mistakes and weaknesses and take responsibility for them.

And, in the end, they are better for it.

Also, they keep trying (and failing).

And that’s okay.

The reason I shared the story is because I think Bitcoiners need to take inventory of their relationships and see which still serve them sooner rather than later. The envy will only grow with each order of magnitude up move in bitcoin.

A story that illustrates why I will never orange pill anyone ever again.

2015- Attempt to orange pill friend multiple times. No dice. Totally uninterested.

2019- He asks me if now is a good time to get into bitcoin. “It’s always a good time”. I set him up with a HW wallet and tell him DCA and chill.

2019- Friend calls me a few months later, he wants to put the down payment money for his house into bitcoin, but he’s nervous. I say no worries I will backstop your investment. What’re friends for?! I want you to succeed. He now has a no risk investment. Financed by me.

2020: Friend is doing well. Has been stacking hard and has 2 coins. A great stack for his income.

2021: He starts watching cringey YouTube videos about shitcoin trading. Gets into a private telegram, trades his 2 bitcoin into 4 and then gets rug pulled and loses everything.

2021: He’s near suicidal, very dark times. He doesn’t tell me anything because he knows I warned him about trading and thinks I’ll be disappointed in him. Finally he tells me. I help him get a personal loan so he can take advantage of the remainder of the bull run. He sells at 55k and manages to break even. He’s not up but he’s got his house money back.

2023: We’re out drinking with some other friends from high school. He expresses some jealousy towards me in a semi awkward fashion. “Every time I see this dude (me) I think about bitcoin.”

2024: I meet up with him so the kids can play at the park. Vibe is off. Lots of insecurity and tension. They’re going on a trip to San Diego and I ask if they might go to the zoo while there. “I can’t afford that. That’s for rich people like you”. Odd interaction, but I shake it off.

2024: A few weeks later he gets drunk and hits on my wife via text messages. She shows me immediately and I confront him. He’s like “sorry bro I was drunk I didn’t mean it”. I tell him off and make clear this is the last time we will ever speak.

No good deed goes unpunished. I could not have been nicer to this dude and more helpful along the way and he is fully consumed by envy towards me.

Unfortunate.

#Bitcoin ETF Flows Weekly Summary

TOTAL -$888M

exGBTC $1,114M

IBIT $828M

FBTC $79M

BITB $67M

EZBC $52M

BRRR $38M

ARKB $33M

HODL $17M

BTCW $0M

BTCO -$2M

GBTC -$2,001M

Good evening.

I’ve been getting a lot of questions re: The Fed and QT.

Going to make this as simple as possible for everyone.

The Reverse Repo (RRF) is basically a slush fund where excess cash has been parked since QE 2020.

The Treasury has been using the RRF to fund its needs by issuing short term T-Bills.

The RRF is down to $500B from a peak of $2.5T.

When the RRF is drained, the Treasury needs to find new capital. It will do this by issuing longer dated Treasuries.

This will cause the banks to use their reserves.

There are currently $3.5T in bank reserves.

When bank reserves drop to $2.5T the Fed and Treasury get nervous.

Why?

Because they worry about another liquidity crisis like Sept 2019 when the overnight rates spiked when banks basically ran out of liquidity at the same time that the Treasury issued a pile of unexpected debt.

There are a number of reasons for this I won’t go into.

And so, when the RRF is drained or near drained, the Fed slows QT (selling the bonds they bought in 2020-2021 to add liquidity in the markets. This is also what helped create the excess slush fund of RRF).

And then, when the reserves hit $2.5T, QT ends.

Why?

The Fed cannot compete with the Treasury for liquidity at that point.

Because the last thing the Treasury can have is disfunction in a Treasury auction.

And so, QT ends.

And the next step will be?

QE.

More cowbell. More. slush fund.

Wheee.

Hope this helps. Have a great night.

😬 nostr:note1cfelv9xl6h2c0gvn7snlmu7w39f76zc4uugeqfatzprtc9h96sqs550a4z

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He is one of the best by far! :) We are lucky he's on our team..