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The Conscious Contrarian
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The Conscious Contrarian challenges conventional wisdom to uncover new, more attuned principles and perspectives for navigating the future.

Separating money from state

On October 31, 1517 Martin Luther nailed his 95 theses to the doors of All Saints’ Church in Wittenberg, initiating the heretofore elusive separation of church and state.

On October 31, 2009 the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto published the Bitcoin Whitepaper, initiating the heretofore elusive separation of money and state.

The date Satoshi chose for his publication is no coincidence, he was evidently a student of history and well aware of the parallels between his and Luther’s discoveries.

Not only was the Protestant Reformation a process of emancipation from the dictatorial regime of the most powerful institution in the world at the time, the Catholic church. It was also a process of decentralization: Luther told his followers that they could reach salvation without the need for mediation by priests and without the need for rituals or indulgences.

Today, the movement around Bitcoin is in the process of emancipating us from the oppressive regime of central banks and the banking system. Like the protestant reformation, one of its central theses is one of decentralization: Participants do not need permission from a central entity to transact value with each other.

The implications of this are as subtle and yet profound as those of the reformation. Like the reformation, the power shifts triggered by the invention of Bitcoin will undoubtedly lead to crises and potentially even wars.

Today Bitcoin is trading at a new all-time high. As it continues its seemingly inevitable rise, look out for people from the old system yelling, kicking and screaming as an indication that tectonic power shifts are occurring before your eyes.

https://m.primal.net/HkBI.webp

No I think of it as positive. As it continues its inevitable rise, Bitcoin will make rent-seeking harder and harder.

Just realized that #bitcoin 's bull run may be the last opportunity in history to get wealthy without doing work

Did y'll see gold is trading close to all time highs?

Seeing is receiving:

One of the most powerful meditations I have yet come across is Loch Kelly’s meditation on seeing.

Seeing is our most prominent sense, our brain devotes a significant portion of its resources to processing visual information.

This mirrors our experience of the world. Seeing is much higher resolution and arguably more useful than the other senses. Our eyes help us scan for danger and they are historically strongly tied to our fight-or-flight response.

As a result, we have built significant experiential artifacts around this sense. Watch your experience: Pay attention to hearing. When we hear, we receive sounds. It’s a relatively passive act, though of course we can influence which sounds we pay attention to to a degree.

With seeing it’s different. Most of us go through life perceiving seeing as projecting our attention into the world. It’s much more active. Our eyes are usually focused on specific details in our visual field that are relevant or scanning for potentially relevant content.

They are rarely in a passive state of just panoramic receiving like our ears or our touch.

This habitual pattern of constant focus can be relaxed through targeted meditation. For me this immediately relaxes my mind’s grip on my experience. It’s a powerful tool to put things into perspective and take a step back.

If you’d like to try it out, please get in touch!

https://m.primal.net/Hjkr.webp

Honestly, it’s better than one would expect. I think apart from Chamath, they’re all way too short, you can tell from the distaste in their voices…

they’ll start covering it more once the FOMO hits.

In 2017 I turned 18 and bought $1000 worth of Apple stock. I remember thinking I was a genius when my “investment” tripled in a relatively short period of time.

In my naïveté about markets, I used the opportunity to sell.

ChatGPT did the math and those shares, if I had held on and after accounting for stock splits, would be worth $350,000 today!

Except, in fact Chat GPT was hallucinating. The correct value today of $1000 invested in Apple Stock in 2007 is somewhere closer to $37,000, depending on the exact purchase date and whether one accounts for dividends. What ChatGPT seems to have gotten wrong is that it did account for stock splits, but it did so with a 2007 price that was already historically adjusted.

So this is a post about the power of compounding in investments and one lesson is that if you have a high conviction bet, you should not let your profits lure you into selling or trying to trade.

However, this is equally a post about remaining cautious about the output from LLMs. They present their results confidently and articulately and they can be extremely useful, but they often still get simple things wrong… resulting in potential orders of magnitude of errors.

In 2017 I turned 18 and bought $1000 worth of Apple stock. I remember thinking I was a genius when my “investment” tripled in a relatively short period of time.

In my naïveté about markets, I used the opportunity to sell.

ChatGPT did the math and those shares, if I had held on and after accounting for stock splits, would be worth $350,000 today!

Except, in fact Chat GPT was hallucinating. The correct value today of $1000 invested in Apple Stock in 2007 is somewhere closer to $37,000, depending on the exact purchase date and whether one accounts for dividends. What ChatGPT seems to have gotten wrong is that it did account for stock splits, but it did so with a 2007 price that was already historically adjusted.

So this is a post about the power of compounding in investments and one lesson is that if you have a high conviction bet, you should not let your profits lure you into selling or trying to trade.

However, this is equally a post about remaining cautious about the output from LLMs. They present their results confidently and articulately and they can be extremely useful, but they often still get simple things wrong… resulting in potential orders of magnitude of errors.

In 2017 I turned 18 and bought $1000 worth of Apple stock. I remember thinking I was a genius when my “investment” tripled in a relatively short period of time.

In my naïveté about markets, I used the opportunity to sell.

ChatGPT did the math and those shares, if I had held on and after accounting for stock splits, would be worth $350,000 today!

Except, in fact Chat GPT was hallucinating. The correct value today of $1000 invested in Apple Stock in 2007 is somewhere closer to $37,000, depending on the exact purchase date and whether one accounts for dividends. What ChatGPT seems to have gotten wrong is that it did account for stock splits, but it did so with a 2007 price that was already historically adjusted.

So this is a post about the power of compounding in investments and one lesson is that if you have a high conviction bet, you should not let your profits lure you into selling or trying to trade.

However, this is equally a post about remaining cautious about the output from LLMs. They present their results confidently and articulately and they can be extremely useful, but they often still get simple things wrong… resulting in potential orders of magnitude of errors.

Welcome to price discovery phase

Looks like traders who thought they could play a “sidewards move” for a while here are about to get rekt

There are people shorting #bitcoin here in the hope of making money... 😂

That's awesome. I was just in Nosara and asked quite a few vendors whether they accept #bitcoin. Most didn't really seem to take the question seriously.

Looks like great progress, but still more work to do.

nostr:npub12vkcxr0luzwp8e673v29eqjhrr7p9vqq8asav85swaepclllj09sylpugg I can't seem to post a note that references another note (with the "note:" notation). Any idea why? I'm on MacOS