December 28, 2025 #Bitcoin MARKET=$88k ECM=$113k

BOUND $74k - $332k http://energycostmodel.com

December 17, 2025 #Bitcoin MARKET=$86k ECM=$114k

BOUND $74k - $331k http://energycostmodel.com

Once there are 1000+ mints, it's too late to coordinate. Building this into the protocol now means Cashu becomes THE way billions use Bitcoin.

Proof of Reserves for Cashu

Hey Cashu team,

I've been modeling Bitcoin's future and discovered something incredible: Cashu could generate large fees with 5B users, solving Bitcoin's security budget forever.

But there's one critical requirement: proof of reserves.

Without cryptographic proof that mints hold the Bitcoin they claim:

- First major rug pull kills the entire ecosystem

- Users won't trust mints with real money

- Regulators shut it down

Best

Thank you for your attention to this matter

Bitcoin's block rewards halve every 4 years. By 2032, they'll be just 0.78 BTC.

The Energy Cost Model shows miners need $200k+ BTC prices OR massive transaction fees to stay profitable.

Without fee innovation (Lightning, Ordinals, DeFi), the network becomes vulnerable.

We must embrace new use cases—not fight them. Every inscription, every Lightning channel, every institutional settlement strengthens Bitcoin's security.

The math is clear: Innovate or watch hash rate collapse. Fee revenue isn't spam. It's survival.

we do it and will do it - because we know the future - as you do.

nostr:nprofile1qyt8wumn8ghj7cn5vvhxkmr9dejxz7n49e3k7mgpramhxue69uhkummnw3ez6un9d3shjtnzd96xxmmfdchxu6twdfssqgzgw3aqm5aqwwpph8kt2df2pge75t6mwadtuqunys9qvx6ah69xhuajdsas Thank you for your insightful feedback! Your observations about the article feeling "reworked" and lacking

attention to what the data actually meant were spot-on. We've made comprehensive changes based on your critique:

What We Changed:

1. Replaced Vague Economic Terms

- Eliminated "intrinsic value" throughout

- Now using concrete terms like "production cost floor" and "minimum viable production cost"

- The focus is now clearly on measurable mining costs, not philosophical value debates

2. Explained All Data Outliers

- Added detailed section "Notable Historical Outliers and Their Impacts"

- China mining ban: Quantified 45% model deviation, 6-month recovery

- Halving events: Documented 30-40% accuracy drops

- Transaction fee spikes: Specific percentages and durations for Ordinals, DeFi peaks

- Each outlier now has cause, effect, and recovery timeline

3. Complete Educational Restructuring

- Transformed from technical paper to educational journey

- Added 5 clear chapters building from basics to advanced concepts

- Starts with engaging question: "What gives Bitcoin value?"

- Uses analogies (lottery, gold mining, tipping) instead of jargon

- Every section now explains WHY it matters for the overall thesis

4. Embedded Core Thesis Throughout

- Energy costs create Bitcoin's fundamental price floor

- Prices above this = speculation

- Made this distinction clear without being preachy

- Added multiple examples with real numbers

Thanks again for taking the time to provide such constructive criticism - it made a real difference!

Thank you for your insightful feedback! Your observations about the article feeling "reworked" and lacking

attention to what the data actually meant were spot-on. We've made comprehensive changes based on your critique:

What We Changed:

1. Replaced Vague Economic Terms

- Eliminated "intrinsic value" throughout

- Now using concrete terms like "production cost floor" and "minimum viable production cost"

- The focus is now clearly on measurable mining costs, not philosophical value debates

2. Explained All Data Outliers

- Added detailed section "Notable Historical Outliers and Their Impacts"

- China mining ban: Quantified 45% model deviation, 6-month recovery

- Halving events: Documented 30-40% accuracy drops

- Transaction fee spikes: Specific percentages and durations for Ordinals, DeFi peaks

- Each outlier now has cause, effect, and recovery timeline

3. Complete Educational Restructuring

- Transformed from technical paper to educational journey

- Added 5 clear chapters building from basics to advanced concepts

- Starts with engaging question: "What gives Bitcoin value?"

- Uses analogies (lottery, gold mining, tipping) instead of jargon

- Every section now explains WHY it matters for the overall thesis

4. Embedded Core Thesis Throughout

- Energy costs create Bitcoin's fundamental price floor

- Prices above this = speculation

- Made this distinction clear without being preachy

- Added multiple examples with real numbers

Thanks again for taking the time to provide such constructive criticism - it made a real difference!

#Bitcoin ECM $108k http://energycostmodel.com

Thank you! We will try harder!

#Bitcoin ECM $108k http://energycostmodel.com

#Bitcoin ECM $104k http://energycostmodel.com

#Bitcoin ECM $103k http://energycostmodel.com

#Bitcoin ECM $105k http://energycostmodel.com

#Bitcoin ECM $105k http://energycostmodel.com

- Antminer S21 XP - 13.5 J/TH

- Gaussian weights for rolling efficiency window

#Bitcoin ECM $108k

https://energycostmodel.com

#Bitcoin ECM $104k https://energycostmodel.com

-like clockwork

By combining the individual forecasts for energy consumption, transaction fees, and energy prices described above, we derive a projection for Bitcoin electricity costs.

https://energycostmodel.com

We are introducing http://apibtc.org ⚡️- Open #Bitcoin Lightning Network REST API for #AI Agents

✅ Pay any Lightning invoice via API

✅ Receive #Bitcoin payments

✅ Authentication on BIP-340 Schnorr Signatures

https://github.com/DontTrustVerifyOrg/apibtc

Proud to contribute to the #BitcoinDev & open-source community!

#LightningNetwork #AI #APIBTC #Bitcoin