To explain, and this continues the discussions in two other threads linked below, if you sum the market cap of the S&P 500 (45T) with US bonds/treasuries/etc (36T) and US homes (50T), you get 131 trillion USD. But US M3 (broad money) is only 21 trillion USD, less than any one of those three figures. Oh, but you might say, there is global demand for all three of these, so we need to use global M3. In that case, global M3 would be approximately 80 trillion USD, still far less than the market caps for these other assets, and also less than any two of those asset classes combined, which does not account for many many other goods. There is no contradiction. It means that "market cap" is a kind of index for comparison and does not imply that there is a corresponding amount of money actually available. Money is its own good with its own supply and demand. Exchange takes place on the margins of both the money and the good or service. I'm not saying market cap is not a useful tool for comparision. But there is no contradiction between a market cap of over 21 million Bitcoin and there only being 21 million Bitcoin available, even in a world where all the money were replaced with Bitcoin. At the same time, yeah, Microsoft is overrated no matter how you figure it, but that's a different statement for a different reason.

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yes, the market caps are always highly inflated, they really should qualify it with the differentials that would happen to the price if 10% or 25% or 50% were liquidated

Except they have no way of figuring that out until the actual liquidation happens. Perhaps declaring the interval would be good, along with the range during that interval, for example, over the past 30 days the lowest exchanges would be this cap while the highest would be that cap. Or maybe if there were a way to see the proportion hodled during that same interval. But the "volume" that they report, do we know how much of that volume is repeat volume (same stock traded over and over during the interval) versus unique volume? I doubt it, right? A hard problem. The simple market cap based on the latest trade price is still a nice way to compare stocks.

it's basically bullshit

i forget which kind of decay function tends to play in but i think it's a log10

so 10% sold price is 50% something like that

the actual orderbooks can tell you where it will go, momentarily, but if it goes down they won't tell you who has stop loss orders waiting to be triggered at whatever level, only the ones that have been registered, stops are supposed to be executed by trigger they are not telegraphed