Forgot to mention Jami (https://jami.net) which is also p2p.
The issue with XMPP based messenging will be: XMPP needs servers just like email does. So the authorities will just eventually force bigger XMPP server hosters to either (A) implement "some way to achieve chat control features" (which seems rather impossible protocol wise) or (B) shut down. So they might just have to shut down.
Might push people to mostly serverless messengers such as https://briarproject.org or https://tox.chat.
Or maybe since they cannot easily force shut down of email servers, people will use Delta Chat, which uses emails? Email providers wouldn't like this though.
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