I built (with AI ;-) a model where you can enter a year on year global money supply growth (percent), and inflation, and it will estimate #Bitcoin price in nominal and inflation adjusted USD (a deterministic path)
and it will run 200 Monte Carlo scenarios, including shocks (you can edit a parameter how often they happen and how severe) and then it will spit not just one price prediction (impossible and useless, I think),
but percentiles: in how many simulation scenarios (e.g. 50%, 75%, 90%) the price was above or below a given value (nominal and real). What do you think?
(it considers halving, adoptions and capital inflow yearly diminishing positive impact, my default parameters are conservative)