Check out this article ( https://controlplanecapital.com/p/what-made-me-sell-most-of-my-bitcoin ). Might help you connect some of the remaining dots.
Great article. Sadly, I find it hard to disagree.
Unfortunately, looks like you are right.
At least, as minimum, I hope Bitcoin will track the money printing and long term hold value in the real terms, purchasing power.
Because 21 million on one hand and infinite printing on the other.
So, even if no new capital flows into Bitcoin, even if no increased adoption, unless there is some disaster, Bitcoin should work as digital gold.
And I hope there will be some catalyst for adoption, like you say.
I see a lot of #bitcoin price predictions. $200K, $1 million, $10 million, etc.
I think the truth is: WE DON'T KNOW.
And, even if we knew, say it will be $1 million in 10 years, we would NOT KNOW how much this will be due to inflation (money printing, 1 BTC having THE SAME purchasing power as 1 BTC today) or real purchasing power of 1 BTC growth (e.g. thanks to more adoption, capital inflows, halving impact).
While I continue to think we DON'T KNOW, I think we CAN run different scenarios.
Put in some guesstimates on money supply growth, halving impact, capital inflow impact, economic crises, market crashes (how often they will happen) and see how many times the real (inflation adjusted) price was, say 2x in 20 years (spoiler alert: around 50% of simulations with conservative parameters)
If you want to play with it, the model is here
Feedback welcome. Not financial advice, but tool for thinking. AI-assisted generation. Enjoy.
I built (with AI ;-) a model where you can enter a year on year global money supply growth (percent), and inflation, and it will estimate #Bitcoin price in nominal and inflation adjusted USD (a deterministic path)
and it will run 200 Monte Carlo scenarios, including shocks (you can edit a parameter how often they happen and how severe) and then it will spit not just one price prediction (impossible and useless, I think),
but percentiles: in how many simulation scenarios (e.g. 50%, 75%, 90%) the price was above or below a given value (nominal and real). What do you think?
(it considers halving, adoptions and capital inflow yearly diminishing positive impact, my default parameters are conservative)
I built a simple Bitcoin projection model in that tries to answer a key question:
What happens to Bitcoin’s value in real terms if governments keep printing money?
It is not intended to predict a specific price point. Look at the percentiles, e.g. in 20 years, in 50% simulated scenarios (which included shocks, inflation, money printing, halving impact, some but diminishing boost from adoption and capital inflow, etc.) the price in inflation adjusted USD is... look at it yourself.
And you can tweak any parameters.
The model takes Global M2 growth (money supply), adds a conservative adoption boost, a halving cycle effect, and then runs Monte Carlo shocks to simulate crises (reflecting the real world where we will have wars, economic crises, etc.)
It outputs both nominal BTCUSD price and real price (adjusted for inflation / purchasing power).
The interesting insight: in high-monetization scenarios, Bitcoin’s nominal price skyrockets… Translation: if you see $10M BTC, it may just mean a $200 loaf of bread. Real long-term upside comes only from adoption/capital inflows beyond money printing.
Use it, tweak it, or share feedback.
This is not financial advice — just a tool for thinking.
AI-assisted work.
isn't it that sooner or later some other small miner (not paid by a country) will be lucky to find a block and do include the transaction that big centralized miners or governments wanted to censor?
and so, "worst case" it would take a bit longer, maybe a few days instead of 10 minutes, but still any valid transaction from anyone could be included, no?
hello world, testing, have a great day, please "like" this note if you see it ;-)
Thank you. Good point. Will continue.
I find your posts very helpful.
What is the better mental framework?
How do I find or built it?
May I ask that you please tell me?
I asked chat GPT by sharing a random post and it said opposition.
Is that right?
I guess it largely depends on what the content world be about, like, of there enough news to comment or alike.
On the other hand, if you post ai generated images, of course it could be fine very frequently.
I guess once per day would be my preference, in general.
Ok
But then
What is true, exactly?
How do I tell?
Because out there in the uncensorable social media, like here on NOSTR, there are many "truths" about anything, war, nutrition, etc.
I guess he would then also 6102 the MSTR stock.
How to appreciate more what we have while we have it?
No, but technically, mathematically speaking this is a positive expectancy game.
If I could play it repeatedly with small amounts, yes.
?v=1741411292Do you have a chart with, on one chart, both stock to flow AND global M2 liquidity?
It would be interesting to visually observe the correlation with Bitcoin price.