amen.

someone wiser told me "a prophet is known when his prophecies come true"

so it's kinda pointless =)

i call it "pulling the future into the present" and why do that...

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knowing probabilities is all you really need, everything is fuzzy

That's a great point. For me, the choice was between 100% chance of paying a yearly 0.2% fee to some ETF product or take a 50/50 chance on a company to be a proxy and save the fee.

I suppose the game then would be refining the 50/50 odds to something more specific according to price, management and legal news.

actually, i don't know if this would be called "TA" or "awareness of market makers"

let's see if BTC be 126.4k this weekend:

https://x.com/RyansMethod/status/1975926740934365418/