"At some point it needs to go up."
You need to zoom out and look again, because Bitcoin has only travelled in one direction. It's not stopping here, but you can expect heavy turbulence at times.
Discussion
Again … the OGs need to zoom in … at least to the 2020/21 class … I’m widely aware of what you and others enjoyed during prior cycles. But the last 4 years have been mostly flat to down…at least relative to the “zooming out” you suggest.
Any maxis in the Class of 2021 who got into bitcoin because of covid have not yet experienced the personal validation and financial freedom you’re suggesting comes from “zooming out” … and it has been 4 years of stacking.
I'm also class of '21 and agree with much of what you say. My conservative case in '21 was hold till '31 and hope for, plan for $500k by then. After 3 years that is now beginning to look optimistic. Also, I didn't take into account just how insidious and dramatic inflation could be. Now I think the $500k number in '31 likely won't be nearly good enough. But, that's the whole point of Bitcoin, to solve this problem. There is still nothing fundamentally better than Bitcoin at this job. So I hodl.