I’ve never seen a potential known news event (even if the market doesn’t really think it’s going to happen, it’s still known that it might) move the price sustainably.

I have seen news move the price in a positive direction, but it’s always surprise news (like when Tesla announced out of nowhere that they bought).

However I think the surprise could be a change to the tax treatment of bitcoin which could have wild implications, this has been talked about a little, but would still be a surprise to the market I think. Let’s say hypothetically they announce that they’re going to get rid of cap gains on bitcoin and treat it as a currency. I think you see 3 phases:

Phase 1 where everybody suddenly stops selling and we go up only until it’s implemented.

Phase 2 once it’s implemented where we have massive volatility of people resetting their cost basis, OG’s selling, and the start of a huge rotation into bitcoin.

Phase 3 where we just see the rotation as the market realizes that bitcoin isn’t just the best performing asset, but also the only one with tax free gains.

I think the best we’re going to get re: SBR is some sort of announcement or proposed legislation that will maybe cause a brief spike that will be sold off. It’s hugely bullish, but I think bitcoin is very bad at pricing in future events, just not enough liquidity, won’t be priced in until they actually start buying.