And here’s a more bullish version:

1st I asked Grok to figure out the average daily return for Metaplanet since they adopted the bitcoin treasury strategy, this came out to just over 1.4% per day.

2nd I asked Grok to assume that trend would continue for the next 100 trading days. Stock price at the end of the 100 days assuming trend continues: 6961 JPY or $48.03

3rd assume they issue the 555M shares linearly over those 100 trading days (5.55M shares per day)

4th assume BTC increases from $105k to $150k linearly over those 100 trading days.

5th give me the total BTC they would own at the end of the 100 trading days: 133,188 BTC

6th tell me what date 100 TSE trading days is from today: October 1st or 2nd

7th give me a new mNAV/share price chart:

Some Metaplanet analysis of the plan they announced today.

Here’s the “conservative” version:

759M shares already issued, another 555M on the way, so ~73% dilution (per page 7 of the deck released today). Likely all issued in less than 100 trading days (per page 20 - assuming a modest increase in volume). At an average purchase price of $115k per BTC that'll give them an additional ~57k BTC at the current stock price of ~$11.70 for a total of around 66k BTC worth about $7.6B.

With a new total of 1.3B shares outstanding here's a chart showing the stock price at various mNAV's:

Here's something interesting.

I was trying to steel man my argument in favor of $STRK, and my belief that there will be near zero incentive to convert and I came across an interesting argument. $STRK doesn't have an options market. So if you could imagine a future where $MSTR is $10k per share, and $STRK is $1k + a small kicker for the 0.8% yield and liquidation preference, someone sitting on a large position of $STRK that's basically yielding nothing could convert to $MSTR and sell covered calls against the position for a much higher effective yield.

So that begs the question: can you launch an options market on top of a preferred stock. Answer according to Grok: yes, but it's so far been very rarely done.

So if they don't do it, I do think you'll have a conversion bleed over time of people willing to give up the liquidation preference (which won't be worth much if @Strategy is the largest company on earth anyway), in favor of the higher yield that selling covered calls can offer. And by that point I think @Strategy would love for people to convert, so maybe they're incentivized to not launch the options market. Something to think about!

nostr:nevent1qqsrg3rc7urdj3ja6rr5f4m7hqpqylqfacq2zf5sgeseaj53prd7e7cprdmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuumwdae8gtnnda3kjctv8g6nwk2dtw9

And also that means my effective yield calculation is wrong. $8 per share on $69.2 is 11.56% not the 8% I listed in the original post! 🤦‍♂️

Elon and STRK

All I could think about today.

However being back on here I’ve zapped more than I’ve been zapped, so not sure this is a very effective scam!

I’m just reposting my tweets to get some zaps! Everyone’s a scammer

$69.2 not $99.2 in paragraph 3, apologies!

A few thoughts about $STRK, obvious to some, but I know a lot of people don't follow this so closely and I think it's potentially a very valuable tool in the bitcoiner toolkit.

$STRK pays an $8 qualified dividend per share per year. $STRK can be converted 10:1 into $MSTR when $MSTR is over $1000 per share. At that point the convertibility is therefore worth $100. With $MSTR at $2000 the convertibility is worth $200, etc.

At the moment $STRK is priced at $107 and $MSTR at $378. IMO this means the conversion is priced at $37.8 and the remaining $99.2 is based on the $8 per share yield (effectively an 8% yield).

As $MSTR goes up well over $1000, $STRK will trade in lockstep with $MSTR. AKA as $MSTR goes from $2500 to $5000 $STRK will go from $250 to $500 + a small premium for the $8 per share coupon and the fact that $STRK is higher in the capital stack of @Strategy than $MSTR.

If $BTC does a 5x to $500k you could imagine that $MSTR might do a ~10x to $4000 and in that case $STRK would do a 4x to $400 (plus the aforementioned premium). As $STRK goes up it still maintains its $8/share qualified dividend, but that equates to an effectively lower yield of 2% in the $400 example. So the portion of $STRK that's priced based on it's yield will go down as $MSTR goes up.

So in however long it takes $BTC to go to $500k would you rather get a 5x with $BTC and 0 counterparty risk, a 4x with $STRK and an $8/share coupon (and counterparty risk), or a 10x with $MSTR and no coupon and counterparty risk. Also keep in mind that once $MSTR is over $1000, $STRK's performance should match $MSTR's (aka outperform bitcoin's), but the yield will be much lower by then. That's my outlook, do with it as you will, No recommendations here, not financial advice, just some thoughts.

Nothing Stops This Train?

Don't Trust, Verify

Elon Musk in 3 acts.

Act 1:

In 2021 Elon tried to appease the Democrats by paying the largest tax bill of all time - quite a bit more than he actually needed to pay. He verified that you could not tax your way out of the overwhelming debt problem.

Act 2:

In 2024/25 Elon tried to appease the Republicans by campaigning for Trump, forming DOGE, and suggesting a narrow possible path where we could cut our way out of the debt problem. He verified that the right only gives lip service to fiscal conservatism.

Act 3:

Elon has been well aware of libertarian/bitcoiner arguments for a long time. But he needed to verify that in fact the system could not be fixed from the inside, he has now done that. I believe Elon will now turn towards the only actual solution to the problem - Bitcoin.

Just realized I uploaded an earlier version, missing a couple lines, here’s the full one.

Got the ”wen” right originally!

Ahh I listened to the boostagrams not the shout outs! Yeah that was great!

Just relistened to 232 and 233 and didn’t hear anything. Which #?

My ode to nostr:nprofile1qqs879mhq6kkuzh2wk57xdzanl76uem8d7hlyjd7v4a4jcm4u88d8ygpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgqg5waehxw309aex2mrp0yhxgctdw4eju6t0fmk4x3 nostr:nprofile1qqsywt6ypu57lxtwj2scdwxnyrl3sry9typcstje65x7rw9a2e5nq8spramhxue69uhky6t5vdhkjmndv9uxjmtpd35hxarn9ehkumrfdejszxrhwden5te0wfjkccte9eekummjwsh8xmmrd9skcpue3jm nostr:nprofile1qqsqfjg4mth7uwp307nng3z2em3ep2pxnljczzezg8j7dhf58ha7ejgpr9mhxue69uhhxetwv35hgtnwdaekvmrpwfjjucm0d5q3samnwvaz7tmswfjk66t4d5h8qunfd4skctnwv46qu7vtcc nostr:nprofile1qqs9z4kfrjatsqt0ev3ntvvqez5lcthfhzjjkz78fjl5ah0erkf38yqpz4mhxue69uhk2er9dchxummnw3ezumrpdejqzyrhwden5te0dehhxarj9emkjmn9js5725 from last week. Saved here for posterity, hope you all enjoy, I wasted an hour on this!

Marty Bent, the palindrome freak,

Block height 888888, Bitcoin’s latest peak.

Marty Jones, our tinfoil thoughts align,

But why do mirrored digits blow your mind?

Thought I’d celebrate with a boost and ask a simple question

Is this even free country? Surely the clown world is descending?

And wen sausage ODELL? No word back,

Ten31 tribe, proud part of the pack.

I think we’re going to win just like #FreeRoss

We got a good thing going like Al’s Lacrosse

Resident TSLA shill never bothered me.

But you can also call me a freak, dirtbag, pleb, or just FT₿

"The Executive Order can just be undone by the next administration"

Ok, we'll make sure we get right on that sometime in the next 12 years 🙃🤡. YOU'RE ALLOWED TO BE HAPPY PEOPLE! YOU'RE ALLOWED TO WIN!

I’ve never seen a potential known news event (even if the market doesn’t really think it’s going to happen, it’s still known that it might) move the price sustainably.

I have seen news move the price in a positive direction, but it’s always surprise news (like when Tesla announced out of nowhere that they bought).

However I think the surprise could be a change to the tax treatment of bitcoin which could have wild implications, this has been talked about a little, but would still be a surprise to the market I think. Let’s say hypothetically they announce that they’re going to get rid of cap gains on bitcoin and treat it as a currency. I think you see 3 phases:

Phase 1 where everybody suddenly stops selling and we go up only until it’s implemented.

Phase 2 once it’s implemented where we have massive volatility of people resetting their cost basis, OG’s selling, and the start of a huge rotation into bitcoin.

Phase 3 where we just see the rotation as the market realizes that bitcoin isn’t just the best performing asset, but also the only one with tax free gains.

I think the best we’re going to get re: SBR is some sort of announcement or proposed legislation that will maybe cause a brief spike that will be sold off. It’s hugely bullish, but I think bitcoin is very bad at pricing in future events, just not enough liquidity, won’t be priced in until they actually start buying.

Enjoyed it, but I hope you didn’t sell all your MSTR calls! What a move today.

🤝

Stay humble stack sats, more important today then possibly ever before

Regarding the QQQ snapshot on Friday, it appears unfortunately that Saylor fucked up, and now they're going to go in with a much lower market cap than they could have. Of course this is all in hindsight and there were a lot of unknowable things that happened between last Monday and now so I'm not throwing stones, it'll all be fine, but it could have been better!

After last Mondays ATM announcement it was pretty clear to see he was going to keep pushing hard at least through to this snapshot if not for as long as the bull market rages on. We had two consecutive weeks of increasing ATM usage both at about 7% of the weekly trading volume. So going into this Monday I and many others saw that the volume last week was insane, and we imagined that it was certainly possible that another 7% of that volume was ATM usage. For whatever reason it seems that wasn't the case. In fact as long as their liquidity keeps rising they should be able to keep increasing the ATM's maybe linearly...or maybe parabolically.

My best guess is they were waiting until Friday to really hit the ATM hard in preparation for weekend stacking. Instead they were caught off guard by the Citron hit piece which combined with the known convert shorting really turned the momentum 180 degrees. At that point they either hit the ATM to try and get what they still could, or more likely they had done a couple billion before then and we're saving the remaining 5 for Thursday/Friday which then got cancelled with the momentum shift. I still believe the 100k coin buy was the plan, but the plan got curtailed.

So now we're about 37% off the highs and the snapshot is in 1.5 trading days, and obviously momentum is bearish as hell. So my bear case is they'll be lucky to close Friday above $300/share. I guess my base case is we stay around here, maybe creep up to $375. But there is still a bull case...

What could they do to try and shift momentum in a hurry in time for Friday? Well barring some major bullish announcement outside of their control all they can do is announce another buy! Volume was still very high over the last two days, and I could easily see Saylor continuing to tap the ATM hard and making a surprise announcement tomorrow morning and/or Friday morning. Even if it doesn't cause the momentum to shift it'll still likely increase the market cap by increasing the share count (as long as we stay flat or even go down less than the issuance). So almost 50M shares have traded in the last two days, I'd say the bull case is 7% of that sold by Saylor (3.5M shares), maybe at an average price of $400 is $1.4B or about 15,000 bitcoin. Not bad for a midweek smash buy.

At the end of the day their strategy does not rely on getting into any indexes. It's just extra fuel on the fire. More fuel, bigger fire, but this sucker is burning bright no matter what.

Anyway, I feel somewhat compelled to bridge the bitcoiner and MSTR worlds, which used to be one and the same, but very much no longer are. Hope someone got something out of this.

Disclosure: LONG AF