Hey party people!
Today's show (#7) with nostr:nprofile1qy0hwumn8ghj7cnfw33k76twd4shs6tdv9kxjum5wvhx7mnvd9hx2qgvwaehxw309a38yc3wd9hsqgypghst3pwjamjlsnxclc2vmtvz7g33sde3ge5wm7knuz9nhmfwwvt69pq8 was a banger!
Shockingly (to me, at least), I'm suddenly bearish.
AM I CRAZY?!? -- Decide for yourself after watching and let me know in the comments!
Here's a link in case you missed the live stream.
Not crazy. I can appreciate the sentiment.
Also, starting to come around to the idea that bull runs are primarily correlated with liquidity and the halving not as important of a catalyst.
nostr:nprofile1qqsp4lsvwn3aw7zwh2f6tcl6249xa6cpj2x3yuu6azaysvncdqywxmgprpmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuumwdae8gtnnda3kjctvq9n8wumn8ghj7enfd36x2u3wdehhxarj9emkjmn99ah8qatzx9e8gmr3vdsnsu3kv96hjcthx4hr26pnds6ngv3jv3kngumj0y6kg7nxv4jngd3exen8zefcwvm8zem4v34hxdmydf6xvuelvfex7ctyvdshxapaw3e82egpzpmhxue69uhkummnw3ezuamfdejs5mzk3a
What do normal people do with 401k? BTC? Reduce funding for a while? Should normies do a stop loss on their retirement accounts or will we just mess it up?
Jeff - have you ever talked with Josh Mandell? (On X only) Christian Bitcoiner, worked at Solomon Brothers in the 90s. Has good takes on MSTR. I think you'd get along.
Would be a great livesteam guest!
Enjoyed your video, although not bullish.
May be next time increase the font size, e.g. TakeHomePoint #5 cannot be read on a smartphone screen, there would be enough space on the slide.
Keep up the good work, channel is subscribed
Two great minds 💪
I wouldn't call it one opinion, just respectful disagreement with both acknownledging each other's thoughts. Kind of what one needs to do, to not be humbled by the market, i guess.
Loved the show. Always good to retest convictions. Still think we’ll go bull. But not out of the realm of possibility we hit the bear
Jeff, Is there any way to listen without google? An audio file somewhere would be awesome.
Was hoping to hear a little more MSTR thoughts. Got 20 seconds then Joe’s phone call stopped it. 😑
Didn’t mean that bad though. Great session with awesome insight on everything else!
If a recession and slowdown hits, could the parabolic bullrun be delayed 1 year into the 2nd half of 2026 when interest rates drop and m2 money would expand?
Lots of possibilities.
Enjoyed! Know you aren't trying to make money doing this, but there is a way to put a zap goal on zap.stream. It might get more people to help cover the cost of streaming it if we knew how much it was running I know walker does it on his, so it is possible. Keep up the awesome, yet scary(I'm still optimistic) updates!
Doc tell us your updated price forecast after turning bearish !!
All bets are off at this point. The trajectory may have changed.
Doc, are you saying that Michael Howell’s 5-year liquidity cycle, as proposed by CrossBorder Capital, no longer exists?
Are we entering an entirely new regime, where liquidity cycles no longer matter? Or do you mean that they’re simply changing trajectory from prior cycles?
Uff, okay, tempering my expectations...damn
Enjoyed it, but I hope you didn’t sell all your MSTR calls! What a move today.
Bearish? I feel like it's too soon to tell.
Big fan of you both! But your contrasting views made me a more uncertain haha. I think you're much more reactive to Joe, willing to trade in and out more often. I'm in agreeance moreso with Joe this time. I think the tariff talk has short term markets/GDP spooked and reactive, but I'm pretty sure it's just a negotiating tactic for Trump to get what he wants. I would be interested to hear your btc price target assuming your current theory plays out!
Please start pushing this content to RSS so I can listen via podcast audio. Not able to sit and watch video. Please, Dr. Jeff! 😂
You overestimate my technical prowess.
Recessionista Ross is your new name
this one goes out to you Dr Bear
So in summary, the reasons you're now bearish are:
1. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is predicting a -2.8% GDP contraction for Q1 2025
2. The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.9 to 50.3 and ISM new orders plunged from 55.1 to 48.6
3. Treasury yields are declining, particularly the two-year yield dropping to 3.92%, indicating that the bond market expects lower growth and inflation
4. Tech stocks (e.g., Microsoft, Nvidia) are looking toppy, and some are rolling over
5. Money is flowing into utilities (XLU) and long bonds, traditional defensive assets that outperform when growth slows
6. Disinflation is happening too quickly which may signal an earnings slowdown
I did find it interesting that one of the datapoints you looked at was the CME fedwatch probability for a rate cut. In the video this was 13% but it's already back down to 7% (I think it was even 5% a few hours ago)
It was a great show
Doc - I love your take on things, one of my signals for a long time but after watching tour session with Joe I got a sense that you were a little confused ? Do you think before you went Dr Bear you should let more data feed in? Joe made some pretty good and sensible points and I felt like he was a little more calm about where things are at… Just saying 👍👍
i'll say it another way. if i had to pick someone to play my hands at poker i'd choose joe. i think he sees a couple of levels beyond what is right in front of him and makes probabalistic bets
yep, i think you're wrong. i expect a reversal from you within 30 days.
Like clockwork. A lot of bulls capitulate. Time to be bullish!
If you’re bearish based on anything nostr:nprofile1qqsgz30qhzza9mh9lpxd3ls5ekkc9u3rrqmnz3ngahad8cyt80kjuucprfmhxue69uhkummnw3ezummjv9hxwetsd9kxctnyv4mqz9rhwden5te0dehhxarj9ehhsarj9ejx2asveug5k says, then yes. You’re crazy.
Did you sell the MSTR calls you bought a week ago? How much of your portfolio are you moving to cash?
Shit, guess it’s time to dust down the bottle of whisky and bag of razorblades.
