Congrats everybody we did it. We killed bitcoin X 😂

He and Luke Gromen have shared similar macro frameworks, and many of us follow both of their work closely. Recently, Luke’s expressed some concerns about Bitcoin’s price action from a technical analysis standpoint, as well as broader worries about quantum computing risks. For those who respect Luke’s macro insights but are unsure what to make of these newer Bitcoin concerns, how would he respond?

Not to be sappy but I’ve been blessed to be friends with some really cool people in bitcoin.

Some of the best people of my generation.

What’re the odds that god would put us all in one spot?

This is a special moment in time.

Make sure you look around and enjoy it.

This is history.

Arrival is so great. One of the best modern sci fi films. I keep coming back to it over the years. It gets better with every viewing. It has a perfect atmosphere. 10/10

Over the next couple of weeks, I’d like to try to start doing group live streams on my channel, similar to Twitter Spaces (but with video) and Macromind discussions (a la nostr:nprofile1qqsg2zqd8wkhpnxu6lm5c2dyfa2mhpwte57apjae2ldp6g2mmwf3ypqce0wa2 ).

We could talk about anything, but I’d favor #macro, #Bitcoin, #investing, finance, fund management, etc.

If you know of guests you’d like to hear from for these casual, yet informative discussions, please tag them below.

The live stream format (on both @zap.stream and YouTube) would allow for real-time questions from listeners.

Just started rewatching Twin Peaks with nostr:npub1hu3hdctm5nkzd8gslnyedfr5ddz3z547jqcl5j88g4fame2jd08qh6h8nh

If you’ve never seen it, I cannot recommend it highly enough.

RIP David Lynch

A lot of people have heard my moped story, but heres the math on it.

In 2016 I needed $5,000 to pay my wife’s master’s school tuition.

I didn’t have $5,000 cash at the time, but I did have bitcoin.

Bitcoin was trading at roughly $500, so I would have had to sell 10 bitcoin in order to pay the tuition.

I didn’t want to do that so I sold my car instead for $5,500.

I took $500 of that and bought a shitty moped and used the rest to pay my wife’s tuition.

So I rode the moped around the rest of the year and everyone made fun of me. Usually I play this part of the story up, but tbh it didn’t bother me. The people making fun of me were poorer than I was, they didn’t understand bitcoin or the market or even basic budgeting.

When people would make fun of me I would tell them why I was doing what I was doing. Then I would start peppering them with questions about their financial life.

“Oh so you financed your refrigerator? You’re still paying that off huh?”

“You have a timeshare you’ve never been to? How’d you get talked into that?”

People would generally go from laughing at me riding the moped to feeling shell shocked by me popping their bubble of comfortable delusion.

Still I drove the moped and everyone thought I was being weird and ridiculous and silly etc…

At 100k that decision was worth a million dollars.

At a million it will have been worth 10 million.

And at 10 million it will have been a nine figure decision.

100 million dollars.

I only rode the stupid moped for 8 months.

Ask yourself? Would you face 8 months of sacrifice and ridicule for 10 million in the future?

Because there are things you could be doing today that would generate that for future you.

My advice is to have your own moped moment.

Do something a little weird/cringe/out there in order to stack more sats and then check in on the sats in 10-15 years.

I think you’re going to be happy with the results.

My goal in 2025 is to be even more militant about widespread bitcoin adoption.

The world is immersed in chaos and nothing can be fixed until people understand that the money is broken and they need to adopt the solution.

Fix the money, fix the world.

FWIW (not much)...

Regarding #bitcoin price action...

Based on past cycles and current liquidity conditions...

I am giving each of the next 14 months (from September 2024 through October 2025) approximately a 67% chance of being a green monthly candle in US dollar terms.

It's all speculative nonsense, of course. But it's fun to imagine what could happen over the next 4-5 quarters.

🐂

Those who know know what a big deal this is