So if that market was live for 1 hour and there were two trades that showed a 7% chance, would that be sufficient evidence to prove your hypothesis? Do you see my larger point? It’s been live for ~26 hours now. I’m not even I’m a BIP444 Stan, idk shit about fuck, but just saying that moving forward, maybe let markets like this play out for a little longer in time and volume before claiming categorical victory for your hypothesis.

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Basic statistics, not opinion, over 100 observations is typically statistically significant.

Of course can change, but dismissing it also is inaccurate.

I tried to help you. Do better