im tired of the 'is Bitcoin the future' conversations.
i decided that over a decade ago.
I want to move on to the conversations like 'how to run a deflationary business long term'.
Discussion
how do you run a deflationary business long term?
I think it involves solving high margin problems and moving on to the next highest margin problem.
for low margin, like groceries… everyone becomes a gardener/bee keeper?
in cities, vertical farming; hydroponics;…
Smaller “big” cities … much smaller.
The current capacity of cities is incredibly overbuilt and the service costs are enormous. When the cost of capital goes up, the maintenance of much (if not most) of that capacity will be abandoned.
with falling populations too, that may even things out
I feel like price would just be set by the market above the cost of production. Maybe groceries stop being low margin because people need to be able to live?
yeah, makes sense, end of subsidies would change a lot in the market as well
I think this sounds like a portfolio company since you're talking about multiple problems but I think the formula is true. High margin, low cost business will do best. Also something that provides real value. That doesn't sound too different from today tbh
shipping is the bottleneck.
populist local business. small production. but some will inevitably be desirable enough to burst the seams. growth from there for them depends on shipping. the current shipping model is fascist. Not in the twitter name calling way, but the literal government/corporation monopoly way.
So the real opportunity will be in the decentralization of shipping.
we need a uber/doordash decentralized protocol
an gig economy protocol based on nostr.
When I was at the university I worked for UPS. I was always suprised by how many common goods would be traveling far distances. Like does this plastic broom really need to travel hundreds if not thousands of miles. Local 3d printing hubs seems like a natural progression. Untill the replicator is actually invented.
i fully agree.
👍
i cant write the whole premise and vision behind the original note with my thumbs.
i saw a rough outline standing outside a fruit stand on a sunny day.
i need to switch to a real keyboard….
I believe we are in a time with as significant a level of change as the Renaissance. I think the majority of the institutions are already dead, and their paradigms along with them. God told me a while ago, "massive change is coming. if you look at the change, you will see destruction, and will become fearful. If you look at me, you will see incredible opportunity."
I feel like new layers are going to emerge. Only a couple of which i can see.
The populist layer, or the local layer, is what im seeing. But on top of that there is an Amazon paradigm. But not of the Beast system. Something that comes out of the populist layer. That layer needs a local manufacturing Renaissance, and something that goes even beyond that, as well as a decentralized shipping system that cannot be controlled by a centralized State, which will continue to fight against what is coming for the foreseeable future.
Big pictures and abstracted concepts are very easy for me. Breaking them down to plans is much harder. I need... friends to follow for that.
It’s just straight up on Nostr nostr:npub1uvjysslc4djg8qn7xp09h8tlvxu7k7g65f6d9gmgxmeen8rkwegqx7d955 ✌️
Ignore all VC money, pace yourself for a long game & create local value are some of my recommendations ✌️
every business owner in a few years time… so yes let’s start.
see nostr dot build, same sats for service though dollar inflated massively
what if dollar inflates 10x, 50x?
will quickly mean people roll their own image and video hosting I would think
Hyper-local, quality focused enterprises. “Scaling” as we think of it today will not be profitable.
Communities build up around resource density. Supply chains become incredibly efficient.
More leisure time…true leisure time. Less on the social calendar. Fewer restaurants, more functional homes for hosting and cooking.
The future is *dramatically* different thanks to bitcoin appreciating 20-50%+ annually for the next 2-3 decades.
imo you have to have a healthier balance sheet than current businesses. that way you can float in case your prices deflate before your costs do
i love this thread so much
To sum up everything: the money is broken.
I agree with you
The current incentive to keep inventory low gets exponential. It was already devaluing but now it's faster.
I think it incentivizes faster production. Businesses that could take sale and do production after could minimize slippage due to being able to delay and get cheapest input costs possible
The falling price of inventory isn't a problem because the value you receive for it is 1) the same and 2) predictable.
It's carrying costs, such as storage, shrinkage and possibly taxes, that have to bee managed.
I think about that a lot. We had a killer year last year, but sometimes decisions that make perfect sense in fiat world make no sense as measured against the gains of Bitcoin
I thin about this quite a bit being in the mining business 🙃
The biggest challenge I see in a deflationary business is the constantly rising cost of labor (individual pay stays the same, but the value goes up.) You have to either lower wages periodically or find ways to get more out of your labor force. Lowering wages is difficult. People see it as a demotion. Fortunately, workers can gain skills and knowledge with time. This can provide a strong incentive to support and promote people who excel in these areas. This could lead to a world where good workers are able to keep a job for life once again.
It also provides an incentive to get rid of people who are not increasing in value. People who don't improve themselves will have a hard time as they are replace with people who will work for less. Some of this can be made up by technological productivity improvements. Unfortunately, some people, who are currently able to get by, may find themselves left behind. This could be challenging for many.
very interesting 🤔
I think about this a good amount too, both as it relates to bitcoin mining (my current day job) and being a musician. Ultimately it comes down to quality and providing value.