Replying to Avatar Dr. Bitcoin, MD

While that may seem underwhelming, it is what one would expect _on average_ by looking at history and applying a plausible curve to fit the data as best one can.

While the trend line price is the real power in bitcoin, everyone is attracted by the blow off tops. Annual rates of return of 43% for 2025, 42-40% for 2026-2028 is in and of itself remarkable.

Will there be a period of time in the next few years where bitcoin price will be well above model price? Yeah. If you want to capture 95% of the daily price points in a band around the power law, simply take the model price and divide by about 2 and multiply by roughly 4.
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Dr. Bitcoin, MD 11mo ago

Interestingly, if price deviates from power law model, it would imply something very profound about the money distribution amongst those new to bitcoin…power law progression would imply they hold a specific large fraction of the money supply, but if price is much much higher than expected, it’s because they have way way more money than everyone else in the market assumes.

If price fails to get up to model price, we’d know they have less money than expected.

So are the next entrants to the market richer than we expect or poorer? Time will tell.

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William ₿ Travis 11mo ago

I'm guessing richer since the next round seems like it will be large buyers probably mostly going through ETFs.

To your point above, a cagr of 40% is quite high and does lead to high price levels in 20 years. I believe Saylor ran his cagr projection at 20% and ended up at $46m per coin in 2040.